Is a Bill Plaschke column. Especially when he gives good players a hard time.
What seemed like clubhouse defiance is now calm confidence.
That deer-in-the-headlights look has become an unfettered focus.
That is the ADD style of Plaschke. defiance does not match with deer-in-headlights. That would me more like Jeff Kent, who is a very old man. Or Grady Little, who is gone now.
Besides, Chad Billingsley is the one from Defiance (OH).
Matt Kemp will pay his own way?
The Dodgers' season depends on it.
Their unwillingness to deal him prevented them from obtaining this winter's top traded pitchers -- Johan Santana, Erik Bedard or Dan Haren.
No, those packages all took like 5 players each. Santana also came with a $140 million extention. Seattle gave up essentially Kemp, Beimel, Greg Miller, and two top A+ ball pitchers, to give the Dodger equivalent. Besides, the Dodgers don't have that great a weakness in starting pitching. They need an offense. They scored 85 fewer runs in 2007 than 2006. 85! That's half a run a game. Adding a single pitcher won't bring the team ERA down by .5 unless he posts an ERA of like 1 for 200 innings.
The Dodgers believe that by keeping his cannon in the middle of their lineup, Kemp would blow enough smoke to shroud the hole at the top of their rotation.
What? Here's the top of the Dodgers' rotation last year:
Penny - 151 ERA+, 33 GS
Billingsley - 138 ERA+, 20 GS
Lowe - 118 ERA +, 32 GS
Here's where the decent starters were
Randy Wolf - 97 ERA+, 18GS
There were 59 games started by other starters. Two other starters at an ERA+ of 100 would have been an improvement, but no dice. No other starter pitched as well. Hiroki Kuroda could stay healthy and have a 4.5 ERA and that would help the rotation a lot. Loaiza and David Wells sucked.
Now Matt Kemp has to save the season.
No. Now Joe Torre has to play the right players (bench Nomar and Pierre for LaRoche and Ethier), Ned Colletti has to put the right players on the roster (Kershaw, McDondald, Wade, LaRoche), and Rafael Furcal has to hit for his career averages (ie SLG more than 400).
He can save it with his bat, capable of at least 20 home runs, at least 80 runs batted in, at least an on-base percentage in the mid-.300s.
He can save it with his arm, which is right-field strong, and his feet, which are 20 stolen-bases fast.
Who told Plaschke about OBP? And seriously, mid .300s? That's a huge variation, from like .330 to .370. Kemp can definitely help with his ability. This is true. It is also obvious. What else does Plaschke suggest? He's got a list, so I'll number them.
(1) Will he show up at the park early for extra work? (2) Will he stay late for interviews? (3) Will he win the praise of veterans who will judge him as much on his hustled groundouts as on his home runs?
Question 1 migh be relevant, especially if he works on something useful like recognizing pitches out of the zone. The 2nd one is entirely irrelevant, and Plaschke needs to realize he isn't helping the team by being a columnist, but that's not his job. The 3rd one doesn't matter, it's just a question of how much of an asshole Jeff Kent will be.
The veterans thought the kids didn't respect winning. They thought they didn't respect the game.
The veterans quietly complained about everything from late clubhouse arrivals to dumb baserunning errors to smiles after losses.
Jeff Kent doesn't smile after a win. What the hell. Taking losses in stride and not getting bogged down? Making the same mistakes veterans make? What jerks.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Friday, February 15, 2008
Quick! Make some predictions!
Well, this will be a challenge, because one has to guess which players get playing time, who gets injured, who plays freakishly well, who loses everything, etc. But might as well jump out before everyone else. Even though Kyle Lohse is still unemployed.
National League - AL review to come later.
EAST
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
The Mets have a bit of a weakness at 2nd base, but other than the September collapse of Jose Reyes, they should own the division. Pedro looked like himself in September, at least by the numbers, and adding Santana should make that the best rotation at least in the division, if not the league. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either El Duque or Mike Pelfrey will fill out the rotation, probably quite successfully.
Philadelphia still lacks a lot of pitching depth behind Hammels, and in the absence of Aaron Rowand's career year, their offense will have to put in a little more effort to keep being awesome.
Atlanta is missing Andruw Jones and Kotsay is an injury risk, as is Chipper Jones, which is a shame. A full year of Chipper would be huge for Atlanta. The Braves do have the potential to outdo the Phillies if their offense keeps up, particularly with Renteria now in Detroit. Healthy years from Gonzalez and Soriano will also vastly help Atlanta, although Joey Devine would have been huge for Atlanta. Smoltz and Glavine are both older than dirt, though, so you never know there, and I don't think Mike Hampton will ever be healthy again. He probably forgot what baseballs look like.
The Marlins had an ugly year last year, but they should be getting Olson back from injury. They are down Cabrera, but they got Maybin, who will fill the centerfield hole - yeah, the Marlins look like they miss Juan Pierre. Their power-hitting middle infield, though, is still quite young.
The Nats made some nice acquisitions with Dukes and Milledge, but that doesn't change that they might actually start Christian Guzman at short still. On top of that, their pitching staff has some upside but is far too injury prone to inspire a lot of confidence.
Central
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Astros
At the very least, I'd say there's a split between the top 3 good teams and the bottom 3 bad teams.
The Brewers have had a lot of key components, they just seem to be able to overpay someone every year. Jeff Suppan last year, now Eric Gagne. Sheets in a contract year should be thrilling, and Capuano will be trying to rebound from a poor injury-riddled season where his opponents' average against jumped up from .260 to .280. Not to mention Braun, Fielder and Weeks are offensive forces that aren't making outs all over.
The Cubs won the division last year, and yes, Zambrano's ERA was half a point higher than his career mark. Who knows. Lou Pinella isn't terribly stupid, but I don't see two years in a row. Even if Ted Lilly is that good.
The Cardinals have room to improve, like having Carpenter pitch, but the problem is that won't be until July. Mulder might be alive, but we won't hear from him until May, and what will he pitch like? Mulder has not been effective since 2005 (sort of like Jeff Weaver). Glaus for Rolen is a lateral move, except Glaus might have more power left. Both will spend half the year on the DL. Izturis will make more outs, defensively and offensively, than Eckstein.
The Reds have Dusty Baker managing. Homer Bailey, the hope for their future, should pray that Baker gets arrested and tabbed as Barry Bonds' real supplier, preventing him from forcing Bailey to throw 140 pitches 3 games in a row. Baker will also despise Adam Dunn from clogging the bases with his three true outcome awesomeness.
The Pirates should get improvement from Jason Bay - not sure what happened there. Adam Laroche should probably knock a couple more out too. I still don't hold but so many high hopes for Pittsburgh, but we shall see.
The Astros are the stupidest organization in baseball. Tejada is an ok acquisition, except that he's getting old and isn't as good, and probably used steroids. Why they couldn't wait another day for the Mitchell Report is beyond me. But more importantly, their pitching is no longer a strength beyond Roy Oswalt.
WEST
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Brandon Webb is good. Micah Owings is good. Randy Johnson might be healthy. But the Diamondbacks on top of that said, hell, let's get Dan Haren. The team is very dependent on its young core, with the reigning old dudes being crazy-haired Eric Byrnes, crazy bald man Kirk Gibson, and grumpy old coot Randy Johnson. That might put the D-Backs over the top.
Sure the Rockies got really hot at the end of last year, but they're good. Cook doesn't strike people out, but he's a groundball machine. Morales and Jiminez are up-and-coming. But let's not forget the superstars on the team: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton. Helton is like what Kevin Youkilis would be if he were 35 and not fat. They have the same beehive goatee thing too.
The Dodgers have upside that's dictated not just by their young players, but by Joe Torre. Hopefully, Torre won't do anything stupid like play Pierre over Ethier or play Nomar over Laroche. Additionally, they have all kinds of question marks like Kuroda, Jones, Furcal (who was still awesome defensively last year), Schmidt, Kuo, Brazoban, and Jeff Kent. They could potentially be a first place team, but nothing is certain.
The Padres plan to kill Jim Edmonds by making him run around their giant centerfield. Mark Prior has not pitched effectively since 2005, but he's worth a shot for $1,000,000. Randy Wolf has a nice curve and good K rate, and PETCO will keep the ball in the park, but he's still an injury risk too. I'm still optimistic that Hoffman will implode spectacularly around July or so.
The Giants have no position players. They overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who will still be better than anyone else on their team at hitting a baseball. Losing Bonds will make certain that the Giants don't get out of the cellar.
National League - AL review to come later.
EAST
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
The Mets have a bit of a weakness at 2nd base, but other than the September collapse of Jose Reyes, they should own the division. Pedro looked like himself in September, at least by the numbers, and adding Santana should make that the best rotation at least in the division, if not the league. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either El Duque or Mike Pelfrey will fill out the rotation, probably quite successfully.
Philadelphia still lacks a lot of pitching depth behind Hammels, and in the absence of Aaron Rowand's career year, their offense will have to put in a little more effort to keep being awesome.
Atlanta is missing Andruw Jones and Kotsay is an injury risk, as is Chipper Jones, which is a shame. A full year of Chipper would be huge for Atlanta. The Braves do have the potential to outdo the Phillies if their offense keeps up, particularly with Renteria now in Detroit. Healthy years from Gonzalez and Soriano will also vastly help Atlanta, although Joey Devine would have been huge for Atlanta. Smoltz and Glavine are both older than dirt, though, so you never know there, and I don't think Mike Hampton will ever be healthy again. He probably forgot what baseballs look like.
The Marlins had an ugly year last year, but they should be getting Olson back from injury. They are down Cabrera, but they got Maybin, who will fill the centerfield hole - yeah, the Marlins look like they miss Juan Pierre. Their power-hitting middle infield, though, is still quite young.
The Nats made some nice acquisitions with Dukes and Milledge, but that doesn't change that they might actually start Christian Guzman at short still. On top of that, their pitching staff has some upside but is far too injury prone to inspire a lot of confidence.
Central
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Astros
At the very least, I'd say there's a split between the top 3 good teams and the bottom 3 bad teams.
The Brewers have had a lot of key components, they just seem to be able to overpay someone every year. Jeff Suppan last year, now Eric Gagne. Sheets in a contract year should be thrilling, and Capuano will be trying to rebound from a poor injury-riddled season where his opponents' average against jumped up from .260 to .280. Not to mention Braun, Fielder and Weeks are offensive forces that aren't making outs all over.
The Cubs won the division last year, and yes, Zambrano's ERA was half a point higher than his career mark. Who knows. Lou Pinella isn't terribly stupid, but I don't see two years in a row. Even if Ted Lilly is that good.
The Cardinals have room to improve, like having Carpenter pitch, but the problem is that won't be until July. Mulder might be alive, but we won't hear from him until May, and what will he pitch like? Mulder has not been effective since 2005 (sort of like Jeff Weaver). Glaus for Rolen is a lateral move, except Glaus might have more power left. Both will spend half the year on the DL. Izturis will make more outs, defensively and offensively, than Eckstein.
The Reds have Dusty Baker managing. Homer Bailey, the hope for their future, should pray that Baker gets arrested and tabbed as Barry Bonds' real supplier, preventing him from forcing Bailey to throw 140 pitches 3 games in a row. Baker will also despise Adam Dunn from clogging the bases with his three true outcome awesomeness.
The Pirates should get improvement from Jason Bay - not sure what happened there. Adam Laroche should probably knock a couple more out too. I still don't hold but so many high hopes for Pittsburgh, but we shall see.
The Astros are the stupidest organization in baseball. Tejada is an ok acquisition, except that he's getting old and isn't as good, and probably used steroids. Why they couldn't wait another day for the Mitchell Report is beyond me. But more importantly, their pitching is no longer a strength beyond Roy Oswalt.
WEST
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Brandon Webb is good. Micah Owings is good. Randy Johnson might be healthy. But the Diamondbacks on top of that said, hell, let's get Dan Haren. The team is very dependent on its young core, with the reigning old dudes being crazy-haired Eric Byrnes, crazy bald man Kirk Gibson, and grumpy old coot Randy Johnson. That might put the D-Backs over the top.
Sure the Rockies got really hot at the end of last year, but they're good. Cook doesn't strike people out, but he's a groundball machine. Morales and Jiminez are up-and-coming. But let's not forget the superstars on the team: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton. Helton is like what Kevin Youkilis would be if he were 35 and not fat. They have the same beehive goatee thing too.
The Dodgers have upside that's dictated not just by their young players, but by Joe Torre. Hopefully, Torre won't do anything stupid like play Pierre over Ethier or play Nomar over Laroche. Additionally, they have all kinds of question marks like Kuroda, Jones, Furcal (who was still awesome defensively last year), Schmidt, Kuo, Brazoban, and Jeff Kent. They could potentially be a first place team, but nothing is certain.
The Padres plan to kill Jim Edmonds by making him run around their giant centerfield. Mark Prior has not pitched effectively since 2005, but he's worth a shot for $1,000,000. Randy Wolf has a nice curve and good K rate, and PETCO will keep the ball in the park, but he's still an injury risk too. I'm still optimistic that Hoffman will implode spectacularly around July or so.
The Giants have no position players. They overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who will still be better than anyone else on their team at hitting a baseball. Losing Bonds will make certain that the Giants don't get out of the cellar.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Spring Training
Sadly, we're looking at a situation where the Dodgers' manager has no clue what to think of his team. He wants to see them first. No opinions of anyone yet.
Jon Weisman has a Spring Training preview. Here's my quick and dirty version:
Starting Pitchers
1) Brad Penny
2) Derek Lowe
3) Chad Billingsley
4) Hiroki Kuroda
5) Jason Schmidt - health pending
6) Hong-Chih Kuo - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - above two health and quality pending
8) Eric Stults - desperation pending
Relief Pitchers
1) Takashi Saito
2) Jon Broxton
3) Scott Proctor
4) Joe Beimel
5) Rudy Seanez - almost a sure thing
6) Yhency Brazoban - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - quality pending
8) Mike Myers - health/desparation pending
Catcher
Russell Martin
Joe Benchwarmer
First Base
James Loney
Nomar Garciaparra
Second Base
Jeff Kent
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu
Shortstop
Rafael Furcal
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu
Third Base
Andy LaRoche
Nomar Garciaparra
Tony Abreu
Outfield
Andruw Jones
Matt Kemp
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Delwyn Young
Jason Repko
John-Ford Griffin
Nothing new here. Bench Nomar, bench Pierre, and much will be good. For a real good time, have LaRoche bat leadoff. A more realistic lineup:
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
Ethier
LaRoche
by July, I'd like,
Furcal
Loney
LaRoche
Kemp
Jones
Kent
Ethier
Martin
Marting batting 8th to preserve him. Or something. Batting 2nd is a bitch for a catcher.
Jon Weisman has a Spring Training preview. Here's my quick and dirty version:
Starting Pitchers
1) Brad Penny
2) Derek Lowe
3) Chad Billingsley
4) Hiroki Kuroda
5) Jason Schmidt - health pending
6) Hong-Chih Kuo - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - above two health and quality pending
8) Eric Stults - desperation pending
Relief Pitchers
1) Takashi Saito
2) Jon Broxton
3) Scott Proctor
4) Joe Beimel
5) Rudy Seanez - almost a sure thing
6) Yhency Brazoban - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - quality pending
8) Mike Myers - health/desparation pending
Catcher
Russell Martin
Joe Benchwarmer
First Base
James Loney
Nomar Garciaparra
Second Base
Jeff Kent
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu
Shortstop
Rafael Furcal
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu
Third Base
Andy LaRoche
Nomar Garciaparra
Tony Abreu
Outfield
Andruw Jones
Matt Kemp
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Delwyn Young
Jason Repko
John-Ford Griffin
Nothing new here. Bench Nomar, bench Pierre, and much will be good. For a real good time, have LaRoche bat leadoff. A more realistic lineup:
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
Ethier
LaRoche
by July, I'd like,
Furcal
Loney
LaRoche
Kemp
Jones
Kent
Ethier
Martin
Marting batting 8th to preserve him. Or something. Batting 2nd is a bitch for a catcher.
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