Saturday, November 1, 2008

Let's talk money

How much would you pay Manny Ramirez?

The Dodgers have to consider that not only can they afford Ramirez, but they will make more money as a result of having him. Attendance was higher in August and September, and a lot of Manny-related merchandise was sold. Even with only anecdotal evidence, it's not a stretch to think that signing Manny would be worthwhile, even for a monster contract.

The most important realization in the contract is that time is worth more than money. The Seattle Mariners did not hire Kim Ng, so the Dodgers might be able to escape the damage done to the arbitration process in the Ryan Howard case, which will save them money on Broxton, Ethier, and Martin (Billingsley and Kemp are likely not arbitraiton eligible yet), who might want to avoid arbitration. The point is, the Dodgers have kept a fair amount of their costs under control. Also, with their market size and potential to reach 4,000,000 fans with Ramirez, $30,000,000 per year is not a stretch. For Ramirez to be a valuable and productive player beyond the next three seasons, though, would be hard to say. He's got good power and good patience; the power will fade eventually, and the patience will hold until his eyesight declines. His defense is subpar and will not get better, though, which would make him more valuable as a DH, where he would not have to be in the field. The Dodgers don't have as many other DH options available, though.

Personally, I'd go with $80,000,000 over 3 years. That's not too long a commitment and it's plenty of money - Ramirez could easily net $10,000,000 afterward going anywhere (and he'll probably need to DH by then). I don't see the Dodgers offering more than $60,000,000 over 3, though. The best way might be to offer $90,000,000 over 4 years in a heavily front-loaded contract ($5m deferred sign bonus, $30m, $30m, $15m, $10m), and then, they can add an opt-out clause before years 3 and 4. Essentially, it's $65 million over two years with player options for $15 million and $10 million. If Ramirez wants to opt out for more money, no problem, LA might want better defense by then, if not, then he can still play and OPS around .900 at age 38-39.