East Coast Dodger Fan

Can we please sign Chien-Ming Wang

2010-01-06T01:51:00.002-05:00

When Torre came to the Dodgers, I thought for sure we'd end up landing A-Rod after he opted out. But no dice. If Torre (along with high school teammate Hong-Chih Kuo) can lure Wang to the Dodgers, though, that would be delightful and justify his managerial stint in LA.

Wang has had injury issues the past couple of years, and it really affected his performance in 2009. In 2007, his last full healthy year, though, look what he put up:

30 GS, 199.1 IP, 9 HR allowed, 2.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9

While the low K rate is nothing to write home about, his ability to keep the ball in the park and in play is quite good.

But really, if you want a low-K guy who can get you through some innings, Wang would be a good pick, and he can potentially be a really good one. He's probably cheap because of the injuries, but he'd look good in the back of the rotation, and he would bring some nice variety with the strikeout guys Billingsley and Kershaw as well as Kuroda.

2010 Dodgers Rotation

Kershaw

Billingsley

Kuroda

Wang

Haegar

That would be fun, right?

Stealing bases in 2009

2009-10-17T18:22:00.003-04:00

Just for fun, I figured I'd check the breakeven percentages for basestealing in 2009, and I came across a startling discovery, which I'll come to later.

When deciding whether to steal, one must weigh the risks against the rewards. If one steals successfully, there is a base gained, which is nice, but you still have to have some offense do something. If the runner is caught, then not only do you lose a baserunner, but you also lose an out. Further, there are situational issues at stake too. If you steal a base in front of a guy who is going to hit a home run, then you gain nothing except fantasy points. If you get caught stealing in front of a guy who is going to hit a home run, you lose a run. When the batter is a patient line drive hitter, stealing bases can be more advantageous. In general, though, you can look at a nifty little tool that Baseball Prospectus has on its website called the Run Expectancy Matrix. From this, you can determine the break-even percentages, defined as the percentage of stolen base attempts that need to be successful in order for the attempt to have been worthwhile. Here are the breakeven percentages for each scenario:

Stealing second, runner on first only

0 out: 70.1%
1 out: 73.3%
2 out: 69.4%

This is the most standard stolen base situation. Your leadoff guy reaches and is the only one on, often a speedy fellow. You want him to be successful about 3/4 of the time at least, and in 2009, that was actually a little more than enough. All about getting something going with a guy in scoring position.

Stealing second, runners on first and third

0 out: 76.6%
1 out: 79.2%
2 out: 92.8%

This is a much stricter standard than stealing with a runner on first only. Why is that? Well, there is a runner in scoring position. A base hit will yield a run, and even a flyout will with less than two outs. Further, one should figure that if you've gotten runners on first and third, you've been getting to the pitcher pretty effectively already. Holding onto precious outs would be more important now. Especially with 2 outs; if caught with 2 outs, you risk losing a chance for a dinky little single to score you a run.

Stealing third, runner on second only/runner on first and second:

0 out: 83.3%/76.9%
1 out: 67.8%/71.4%
2 out: 87.0%/87.3%

Having a runner on second with nobody out can come from either a double, a single/walk followed by a wild pitch, balk or steal, or an error throwing to first. In any event, it reflects that your opponents are having a tough time with pitching and/or defense, and you should not ruin that too early. With one out, though, it's a huge dropoff and I don't know why. Presumably a runner on 2nd with one out more often corresponds to a single/walk followed by a bunt or some other productive out, or suggests that the pitcher is a bit more adept at getting batters out, and the sac fly is probably not a bad way of trying to get a run across. Again, stealing with a RISP is not a good idea with two outs. Adding the runner on first makes this a bit more worwhile with nobody out though not as much so with nobody out, but is still a bad idea with 2 outs. It's still better to try to steal third with 1 out, for some reason.

Double steal, runners on first and second catcher throws to third (default)

0 out: 60.0%
1 out: 54.9%
2 out: 81.0%

Can you believe how much more valuable it is to have the guy behind you try to steal too? This doesn't factor in the weak possibility of a double play on a double steal attempt. But still, most players can achieve that kind of stolen base percentage, so the double steal is really not a bad idea. The tail runner doesn't appear to be as important since it always makes more sense to attempt to throw out the lead runner, particularly with nobody out. One has to think you try this more with a right-handed hitter who's not a big power guy up, like Russell Martin or Orlando Hudson.

Double steal, catcher throws to second

0 out: 45.4%
1 out: 54.9%
2 out: 81.0%

This is something that just won't happen unless the catcher screws up. But it could happen, and it helps to be successful here. It could also happen if the third baseman was caught completely off guard or is just really poor defensively, or if the catcher feels more comfortable with the second baseman backing up the shortstop, or if you know the tail runner is a lot slower or got a much worse jump. Still, this has to be a split-second decision, so don't expect your opponent's catcher to do that.

In any event, the double steal should be much more popular than it is. Baseball Prospectus looked at it a couple years ago, and many managers are more risk averse with this. One would assume it's because they want to make sure both runners are good basestealers, and most teams don't always have a pair of guys who can do that.

Who is to blame for the Dodgers' shrinking lead?

2009-08-29T09:57:00.002-04:00

The Dodgers haven't continued toward a pace of winning 100 games on the year, and many are blaming the bullpen, but that might not be accruate.

Consider the following splits before and after the all-star game:
Casey Blake
1sthalf: .285/.364/.486
2ndhalf: .255/.333/.426

Russell Martin
1st half: .258/.373/.314
2nd half: .264/.328/.352

James Loney
1st half: .281/.350/.402
2nd half: .265/.342/.368

Manny Ramirez
1st half: .385/.487/.669
2nd half: .264/.365/.424

As for Manny, one thing is clear: the Dodgers should have signed Adam Dunn. Dunn is in his prime and can be reliably counted on for 40+ homers (and 150+ strikeouts). Dunn seemed to be a viable option when negotiations got funny this offseason. Now it could be that Manny is just not having fun playing baseball anymore. It could be that he hasn't been able to have sex in months because the banned substance was treating his sexual dysfunction well. It could be that he needs to take a whiz in left field and he doesn't have the Green Monster for that anymore. Or it could be that Manny is getting old, and while he's had his burst of glory earlier this season, the Dodgers might have signed a guy that can deliver a .850-.900 OPS for the year rather than a guy who delivers a 1.100 OPS. That's not bad, except that it makes him a monumental waste of money.

I admit to screwing this up, but I should have remembered that anyone can be hot for a couple months, but the players are still human, and humans become less athletic in their late 30s. Or Manny could have just hit a bad spot.

But even if not all Manny, let's take a look at the other three guys. Casey Blake has always been a first half guy, but he shouldn't be hitting high in the lineup. Orlando Hudson always starts strong offensively, and fizzles after about May or so. Furcal will either be awesome or suck. Martin isn't even walking anymore, and the Dodgers should think about where they're going to get another catcher if he doesn't have anything left. James Loney has the curious scenario of losing power every year he's been in the majors. September is always his best power month, but he'll have to do quite a lot to get back up to speed. And by up to speed, I mean make a case to be tendered a contract next year.

Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier right now are the Dodger offense. I'm glad we have them, but we need for Blake, Hudson, Furcal, Manny, Martin and Loney to hit the damned baseball too.

Deadline Assessment

2009-07-20T20:04:00.003-04:00

On a team that's in first place with the best record in baseball, what could they possibly need more of? A tough question, given that the Dodgers have been pretty darn good all year, and just about everyone on the roster has been solid. Let's examine:

Starting Lineup:
Martin. While he hasn't been hitting for any kind of power, you have to appreciate how he's gotten on base so darn consistently. Looking at his splits, though, pitchers tend to pitch around him with runners on base, and he's more likely to take the walk, thus the low RBI totals. But given how Dodger catchers, or any catchers, usually perform in the second half, let's hope he'll be an outlier this year.
Loney. Loney doesn't have the power you want for a first baseman, but he does tend to deliver with runners in scoring position. Frequently. He's more aggressive than Martin, and he still has a little bit of pop, or at least more than Martin. And for his career, Loney has an ISO power of .143 in the first half and .191 in the second half - he hits the ball harder later in the year. Like in the NLDS. So I'm not giving up on him. And for what it's worth, he seems to be one of Ramirez's favorite guys on the team.
Hudson. The All-Star reminded us of the risk the Dodgers took when signing him - he's fragile. If he's not healthy, the Dodgers have Blake DeWitt to back him up, which isn't a bad thing. Hudson is more of a first half player anyway, though; while he'll probably be useful for a while, the Dodgers may have seen the best of him.
Blake. Surprisingly good, the Beard has come through for the Dodgers offensively, posting a .279/.362/.472 line. Blake does tend to perform at a lower level in the second half, although that is almost entirely due to a lower BABIP. So we might still be able to depend on Blake.
Furcal. In 2006, Furcal was off to a terrible start, hitting .267/.345/.346 before the first half while dealing with nagging injuries. In the second half, though, he hit .339/.399/.564 with 11 HR in 298 AB to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, where JD Drew and Jeff Kent ruined everything. In 2007, Furcal began the year with a .273/.341/.354 line. No problem, he'll just have a great 2nd half again, right? Wrong, he hit .266/.322/.355 while dealing with more injuries. We're hoping he's more like 2006 this year, although maybe he needs to feel more of the pressure that year. Someone else, though, has been stealing the spotlight, and his name is...
Manny. He's been good except for when he was naughty and punished. He might have legitimately had sexual dysfunciton, but it's easier to smear him as a juicer. Fair enough. In any event, people largely seem to accept that he's done his time and it's time to move on. Or they're sick of hearing about steroid users. In any event, he's OPSing 1.000 and he's happy where he is. That doesn't make a difference in his performance, but the ESPN guys want you to think it does. Juan Pierre had a great run in his absence, but his last few games he's seeing fewer pitches, etc, like he's not in Beast Mode anymore.
Kemp. Can you say superstar? "Matt Kemp is probably nicknamed the Bison because he's tougher than a Robot Made of Nails." Kemp is hitting for better average than last year, and he's showing better plate discipline as well, posting a .321/.385/.500 line so far. His power and speed numbers are looking solid too, and his defense has been remarkable, including his pre all-star break overhead backwards catch to end the game.
Ethier. Hitting for power, and likely to be the first 30 HR Dodger since Beltre in 04, Ethier is having a relatively rough year at the plate. He's been striking out a lot more, which has pulled his average down to .254, and his walk rate is a bit better too. Ethier's BABIP is way down this year, and while his LD rate is down slightly and could fluctuate, his FB% is up and GB% is down by a lot, which will significantly drop his average. Granted, his HR/FB% is nice at over 15%, but he'll have to improve a bit or cut his K rate down a bit to get back to where he wants to be.

The offense is amazingly not a problem for this year's Dodgers. While some more power would be nice, that will come with more plate appearances for Manny, and a good second half from Furcal and Loney. Like 2006, they lead the league in OBP, and they will probably still leave a lot of men on base.

The Dodgers pitching is...also very good. But let's look at what might be improved:

Chad Billingsley appears to be hitting a rough patch. His ERA has soared to 3.76, and the biggest problem seems to be Torre not pulling him - either when he's thrown over 100 pitches ing the game or 30 pitches in an inning. Sure he's the staff ace, but at 24, he's still a young pitcher, and the Dodgers have an 8 man bullpen.
Clayton Kershaw looks like he's in a groove. His 2.91 ERA and 8.8 k/9 are the nicer stats, although his walk rate is a bit troubling. He is avoiding the worst true outcome, though - he's not giving up the long ball. Having surrendered 5 in 106 innings is remarkable, and will help him get away with his success.
Randy Wolf has given up the long ball more, but doesn't let other guys on base. With a rotation leading 1.1 WHIP, he's been quite good for the Dodgers. There haven't been any health scares this year (and he pitched 190 innings last year), so the king of the no-decision looks like he deserves some respect.
Hiroki Kuroda still seems to be getting back into things, but he seems to be in line with where he was last year. He'll have his rough spots, and then he'll be brilliant, and for the most part he'll be pretty good. When you have Billingsley and Kershaw, he's a good player to mix in. Still works efficiently.
Eric Stults continues to be a useful surprise, but doesn't seem to get his spot in the rotation.
Jeff Weaver performed decently enough as a swingman so far, and he'll probably continue to be good in that role. His peripherals do not support his ERA at all, so unless he can be an extreme groundballer, he may drop off.
Jason Schmidt must be watched for the next couple games. If he can hold up for 5 or 6 innings a start, that would be a great lift to the Dodger rotation. To have a rotation of Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf, Kuroda, Schmidt with the minor leaguers the Dodgers have would give them a lift; it wouldn't be Halladay, but it wouldn't be as costly.

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton showed us that with a healthy toe, he's still the dominant guy he's been all year. Looking a lot like Gagne in 03 but with a higher walk rate and an even bigger waistline, Broxton has struck out 70 in 42 2/3 innings and only surrendered one homer. That's dominance.
Ronald Belisario came out of nowhere, and now he's hurt and the Dodgers are worried. There might not be more talent in nowhere. Or is there?
Ramon Troncoso has peripherals more like Wade and an ERA more like Wade last year, but he's been the man in 09.
Guillermo Mota has worked his way back to being respectable. Having surrendered only 3 homers in 44 innings, Mota is no Broxton, but he can get us there.
Brent Leach is a good situational lefty guy, and the rookie has been put in some high leverage situations with mixed results. It's encouraging to see Torre give him a shot, though.
James McDonald looks more comfortable in the bullpen than in the rotation, having posted a cool 2.35 ERA as a reliever with a 1.239 WHIP. Don't know if that's what the Dodgers want to do with him, but they might have to consider it as an option.
Claudio Vargas - "Sir Not Appearing in this Film"
Scott Elbert - has struck out 12 and walked 2 in 11 innings. That's not a lot of innings.

Extra depth for the rotation and/or bullpen would be nice, but the Dodgers could accomplish that by bidding money for Ben Sheets more effectively than bidding players for Roy Halladay. Besides, wouldn't a clubhouse of Sheets, Loney and Ramirez be hilarious?

Manny being Banny-ed

2009-05-12T21:35:00.004-04:00

"Did you know that you can fool the breathalizer test by chewing on activated charcoal tablets?"
"Well, maybe we should change our slogan to "If you must drink and drive, suck charcoal."
"Won't the police ask about the charcoal in your mouth?"
"There's not a law against charcoal."
"Yet."
- Thank You for Smoking

Manny Ramirez tested positive for drugs in violation of the MLB policy. The most useful bit of information to be found in this ESPN story:

Ramirez and his representatives were prepared to appeal the synthetic testosterone results, intending to argue he had taken a steroid precursor known as DHEA, according to two sources. The drug is akin to the now-banned substance famously known as Andro, but it is not on baseball's banned list. (emphasis added)

Baseball had geared up to dispute the argument, and a Ramirez appeal was scheduled for last Wednesday. MLB's legal team intended to use expert testimony to cite evidence it believed showed DHEA could not have been the cause of the synthetic testosterone.

This makes for a nice messy and technical legal dispute, and while it's kind of messy, it is legal, interestingly enough. But the story gets more interesting:

However, in the days before the hearing, the union turned over Ramirez's medical records -- and they turned out to be a boon for MLB.

Within the records was a prescription written for the drug human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) -- No. 55 on the list of banned performance-enhancing substances in the policy. The drug is mainly used for female fertility issues, but it is best known among male steroid users as a substance that can help kick-start the body's production of natural testosterone, which is stymied when using synthetic testosterone (aka steroids).

That stuff probably looked like this, innocently enough. And while sources indicate that there were problems with his testicles that let him to use the drugs, he failed to get a proper medical exemption. Players can get a Theraputic Use Exemption (TUE) under the drug policy, as is stated here:

1. A Player authorized to ingest a Prohibited Substance through a valid, medically appropriate prescription provided by a duly licensed physician shall receive a Therapeutic Use Exemption ("TUE"). To be "medically appropriate," the Player must have a documented medical need under the standards accepted in the United States or Canada for the prescription in the prescribed dosage. A urine sample which is found to contain a Prohibited Substance will not be deemed a positive test result if such sample was provided by a Player with an effective TUE for that substance. A Player with a TUE for a Prohibited Substance does not violate the Program by possessing or using that substance.

2. A Player seeking a TUE must notify, or cause the issuing physician to notify, the IPA of the existence of the prescription. Whenever requested to do so by the IPA, the Player shall provide, or cause the issuing physician to provide, documentation
supporting the issuance of the prescription. If the issuing physician is not duly licensed in the United States or Canada, the IPA shall request that the Player provide such documentation. The IPA shall notify the Player and counsel for the Association of any request for documentation. Following his/her review of such documentation and, if necessary, consultation with an expert in the area covered by the prescription, the IPA shall determine whether to grant the TUE. The IPA shall report that determination to the Player and to the Parties and, in the event of a denial, forward to the Parties the documentation received and all other material reviewed in reaching that determination. (See Section 9.C.1(c) below.)

3. A TUE shall be effective from the date the Player notified, or caused the issuing physician to notify, the IPA of the existence of the prescription involved, and shall not be effective for any use or possession of a Prohibited Substance prior to that date. A Player who is determined not to qualify for a TUE may not challenge a determination that he violated the Program by contending, in connection with a "no fault or negligence" defense or otherwise, that he believed he would qualify or had qualified for a TUE; however, a Player is not otherwise precluded from introducing evidence of medical treatment in support of such a challenge.

We don't have a lot of time. And it's going to be a lot harder because you're gay now.
- Deleted scene from Team America: World Police

Ramirez is probably most upset that his doctor did not inform him that he was using a banned substance. It is also possible that he has stopped taking the substance recently, and as a result is crying a lot more. But seriously, my guess is that Ramirez was prescribed a brand name of the drug, not the generic name, because that's what doctors prescribe to you, and if he asked a couple more questions or if his doctor told him, he might have been ok (it's also possible that his doctor was a Giants fan). In any event, Manny is planning on suing the doctor, because doctor mistakes do happen.

So what we know is that Manny was using a suspicious substance that was legal, and an illegal substance for a legitimate medical reason that he didn't get approved by MLB. It is likely that upon realizing that he could not get an exemption from it, and it certainly could not be a retroactive exemption, that he gave up and figured to do his time. It would appear that Manny's failure to perform due dilligence in taking care of his own personal, er, ball team has caused him to let his baseball team down.

Brian Wilson must not be a Forgive and Forget Christian

2009-05-12T21:05:00.003-04:00

Wilson was upset that Casey Blake mocked his gesture which he frequently does at the end of games, which is apparently in honor of his faith and his late father.

The Dodgers won't face the Giants again until Aug. 10 in San Francisco, but Wilson told reporters in that city that he has "a pretty good memory."Wilson didn't deny that Blake's gesture could intensify the rivalry between the clubs.

"It could be a catalyst if you want to look at it that way," he said.

"There's always something to fuel the fire. You're always looking for some excuse to get riled up."The incident so upset Wilson that he wouldn't speak to reporters about it Sunday and had to be consoled by teammates.
Asked whether Blake's actions surprised him, Wilson said, "In this day and age, everyone's got some meaning behind what they do. Whether a guy crosses home plate and points to the sky; he's not just pointing to the clouds, right?"

Well, when you consider that Barry Bonds always went with that last example, you kind of wonder. It could be that one is attempting to appear pious, since that's what you assume when someone points to the clouds. But really, there is plenty of genuine persecution of Christians in the world, and it is an insult to those who genuinely suffer, and to other members of the faith, to claim that merely being offended or mocked amounts to persecution. Particularly in the case of Blake and Wilson, where this was not about religion, it was about mocking a closer and getting in his head.

Scouting Without Looking - Russell Martin

2009-05-02T10:15:00.004-04:00

One of the biggest puzzles for the Dodgers this season, last night's walk-off walk notwithstanding, is what happened to Russell Martin offensively? Right now, he's hitting .198/.301/.247, compared to Brad Ausmus' .462/.500/.538. Granted, that could be part of his plan to go deeper into the season by making playing Ausmus look appealing, but the unavoidable fact is that Martin isn't hitting worth shit. Looking at his Fangraphs page, these are the numbers that stand out:

K%, HR/FB, IFFB%, FB%, CB%, ZSwing%, Swing%, OContact%, FStrike%

Based on those bits of information, here's what I would say:

To start off, Martin has been fooled a lot more, going for pitches out of the zone that he can't get, yet not going for good pitches in the zone. As a result, he's striking out more than he ever has (about 10% more of his ABs), and he's not getting the kind of hits he would want yet. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he's inviting pitchers to throw first pitch strikes more with his patient approach, and he should swing at that pitch down the pike on the first pitch, at least every so often to mix it up, especially when pitchers are throwing you a lot more first pitch strikes. He's 1 for 8 on balls in play that he's made contact with on the first pitch, but he's a career .316 hitter on those pitches.

Of course, part of that could just be a bad first month, but after the All-Star Break last year, he hit .260/.371/.336, relying heavily on his plate patience, and it would appear that pitchers are exploiting that now.

My fantasy league

2009-04-04T18:27:00.002-04:00

Since nobody reads this, I'll go ahead and post stuff about my fantasy team, so then I can see a record of how I did in the future. So I will always remember it.

A friend of mine wanted to create a league so he used CBS's comissioner setup. CBS sets up baseball lineups weekly - daily lineups make it too easy to manipulate starting pitchers. This is a bit of a challenge: Joba vs the Royals or a 2 start week for Dan Haren? The scoring is a hybrid of 5x5 roto and head to head - you challenge your opponent in the 5x5 categories. Most H2H leagues use a sillier version of linear weights.

Just so you know, you should play fantasy baseball so you can learn about the rest of the league. Why the hell are the Rays so good? Will Troy Tulowitzki recover (and why wasn't he the rookie of the year) and be the awesome SS we saw in 2007? Why do they call Matt Kemp the Bison (you could check Wikipedia, actually).

My lineup in that league:
Bengie Molina - C
Jorge Posada - C
Prince Fielder - 1B
Chase Utley - 2B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Evan Longoria - 3B
Jack Cust - OF
Andre Ethier - OF
Curtis Granderson - OF
Matt Kemp - OF
Torii Hunter - OF
Cameron Maybin - U
Rafael Furcal - U

Pitchers
Erik Bedard
Jonathan Broxton
Joba Chaimberlain
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
James Shields
Adam Wainwright

Bench
Clayton Kershaw
Oliver Perez
Cody Ross
Richie Weeks

Yeah, we signed Manny since my last post

2009-04-03T22:30:00.002-04:00

Expect the following lineup regularly, after a while:

Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake

although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like

Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake

but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.

Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.

There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.

Why I Hate Blogging

2009-04-03T22:27:00.002-04:00

I have about as many drafts as I do posts, which pop up everytime I open Blogger. It's annoying - blogging is more work than one would imagine. I like to have link-happy posts with in-depth analysis or something like that. But that's not easy, as it turns out. So that's what happens when I go months without updating.

O-Dog, Can You See

2009-02-21T15:29:00.002-05:00

The Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a 1 year deal, making the Casey Blake 3 year deal look like the worst move of the offseason, except for giving AJ Burnett 5 years when he'll spend at least two of them on the DL.

This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.

As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.

If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)

Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)

And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.

I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.

2009 NL Predictions on Feb 6, 2009

2009-02-06T19:33:00.002-05:00

NL East:

Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Nats landed Dunn, but that will not help much. Picking up Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson would have been good moves, but the club is committed to building from its farm system. More Dukes and less Kearns would be nice too. Too many players couldn't hit - the pitching staff was subpar, but that offense could not get anything going. The Phillies will not win the division, and I blame it all on Chan Ho Park. He will give up 50 homers in 2009. The Braves signed Derek Lowe, but we should remember they're down Tim Hudson.

NL Central

Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds

The Cubs kinda stagnated with their club, the Brewers fell, and nobody else really seemed to do anything this offseason. St Louis should get a healthy Carpenter back at some point, and that will give them the edge. Unless Pujols needs TJ surgery.

NL West

Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres

Paul Depodesta's impact can be seen as San Diego keeps acquiring players that would have fit well with the 2005 Dodgers. Orlando Hudson will be missed in Arizona, and Randy Johnson will be welcome in San Francisco. Arizona, LA and SF have decent rotations, but if RJ is healthy and Zito maintains his 2nd half form along with Cain and Lincecum, the Giants will be tough to score on, at least. Although Edgar Renteria will be a defensive downgrade from even 104-year-old Omar Vizquel. This also assumes, of course, the Dodgers sign Manny.

Postseason:

Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Phillies in 4

Dodgers over Cubs in 6

And watch this fall on its face.

Room for Improvement? Part 1 - Offense

2009-01-17T13:57:00.003-05:00

How will the Dodgers improve over last season, besides a full season of Manny Ramirez? Well, let's look position by position, but just at offense for now.

Team

6194 PA, 264/.333/.399, 126 SB/43 CS, 137 HR/543BB/1032K

Catcher

Russell Martin - 650 PA, .280/.385/.396, 18 SB/6 CS, 13 HR/90BB/83K

Others - 80 PA, .213/.263/.320, 0 SB/0 CS, 2 HR/4BB/12K

Martin can have a better season by having a better backup catcher and batting 6th, where he'll have a few less PAs. The bar is low enough any replacement level player should beat it. Brad Ausmus needs to look a bit more alive, but maybe Torre will like him enough to give him some PT.

First Base

James Loney - 651 PA, .289/.338/.434, 7 SB/4 CS, 13 HR/45BB/85K

Loney was in his first season as a full time first baseman, and came up an averagish hitter overall. He hit fewer homers in a little more than half the plate appearances, reflecting that fewer of his fly balls were going long. Loney is also a much better hitter away from Dodger Stadium, so one idea would be to give him his off days at home. Still, he should rebound to about an .800-.820 OPS, particularly as his LD% stays over 20%, and he just turns 25 this coming season. One item of note: Loney's platoon splits in 2008 appeared quite dreadful, while in 2007 they looked more favorable. Loney's BABIP vs lefties was .273 this year, compared to a .311 mark for his ML career and a .323 mark overall, so one would expect some improvement.

Second Base and Third Base

Jeff Kent - 474 PA, 280/.327/.418, 0 SB/1 CS, 12HR/25BB/52K

Blake DeWitt - 421 PA, 264/.344/.383, 3SB/0CS, 9HR/45BB/68K

Casey Blake - 233 PA, 251/.313/.460, 1 SB/0 CS, 10 HR/16BB/52K

To understand the situation, Casey Blake will play a full year and Jeff Kent will retire. Casey tends to have one or two months with ridiculous BABIP which carry his season, and the rest of the time he'll have like a .240 average on balls in play. The Dodgers never got any of his high BABIP stuff, but fortunately he showed he could still hit a long ball here and there. In a full season one would expect his average and OBP to be up by about .20, although his slugging likely won't go up.

Shortstop

Angel Berroa - 256 PA, .230/.304/.310, 0 SB/0 CS, 1 HR/20BB/41K
Nomar Garciaparra - 181 PA, 264/.326/.466, 1 SB/1CS, 8 HR/15 BB/11 K
Rafael Furcal - 164 PA, .357/.439/.573, 8 SB/3 CS, 5 HR/20 BB/17 K
Chin-Lung Hu - 129 PA, .181/.252/.233, 2 SB/0 CS, 0 HR/11BB/23K
OVERALL - .258/.331/.394

Nomar looks like he still has something left as a bench player, but he might retire rather than realize what he has left. Meanwhile, Berroa and Hu stunk up the joint more than Nomar or Furcal could make it look good, reducing the performance to something resembling Furcal's 2007 season. A return to 2006 form would be what the Dodgers would hope for, but it remains to be seen what will happen with his health. It also remains to be seen what DeJesus/Hu/Abreu can do for the middle infield, particularly after Hu fixes his eyes.

Outfield
Kemp - 657, .290/.340/.459, 35/11, 18/46/153
Ethier - 596, .305/.375/.510, 6/3, 20/59/88
Pierre - 406, .283/.327/.328. 40/12, 1/22/24
Jones - 238, .158/.256/.249, 0/1, 3/27/76
Ramirez - 229, .396/.489/.743, 2/0, 17/35/38
Young - 143, .246/.321/.341, 0/0, 1/14/34

The good news is Andruw Jones will be gone. The bad news is that Manny Ramirez is not under contract yet. The Dodgers would improve immensely with an outfield of Manny-Kemp-Ethier, but without Manny, they would need to sign Abreu or Griffey just to break even. Dunn would improve them. Ethier might drop off a bit, but seems to be dependable for something around .300/.360/.490. Matt Kemp could take off this year with newly improved plate patience and begin racking up home run totals. Juan Pierre as the left fielder will cause a slight decrease in offense unless Kemp makes up the difference.

Current Lineup:

Furcal - ss
Martin - c
Kemp - cf
Ethier - rf
Blake - 3b
Loney - 1b
DeWitt - 2b
Pierre - lf

The last 6 spots on the Roster

2008-12-19T19:16:00.003-05:00

As it is, the Dodgers have 6 more spots to fill on the 25 man roster. Here's who's already there:

SP(3): Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw
RP (4): Jonathan Broxton, Corey Wade, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chi Kuo,
C (1): Russell Martin
INF (6): James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Mark Loretta, Delwyn Young
OF (5): Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Jason Repko

There is a vacancy for one more infielder, a backup catcher, two relief pitchers (late inning short reliever and long reliever), and two starting pitchers.

Backup Catcher
This is not an important position, except that Russell Martin will be driven into the ground by age 30 if he doesn't get a good one. We are constantly told Martin is tough and durable, but he still plays like he's out of gas in September. Martin has a career .806 OPS, which by month breaks down to .876/.814/.825/.816/.767/.755

That performance is indicated in the above chart. Basically, he's a superstar in April, and a natural pick for the all-star team, but the lack of a good backup brings him down. That and the stupidity of the manager. Our best options are as follows:

Paul LoDuca - familiar, kind of a light hitter, implicated in Mitchell Report
Pudge Rodriguez - excellent defender, no plate discipline, would cost money, might not accept backup job, but would get plenty of PT
Michael Barrett - only a couple years removed from being a good catcher. Suddenly lost ability to hit for average. Still only 32, though he's been in the majors for a decade. Probably a good pick.
Greg Zaun - about 25% CS, power fading, good for a .340 OBP

Of those options, I'd go with Barrett. He'd look to pick up more playing time later in the season, and he's a good enough hitter that Martin would possibly only catch 120 games, which would make him a better hitter.

Two Starting Pitchers
The expectation here is one guy who could be counted on to last a whole season and one injury prone guy to make room for McDonald to start. I'll also predict the Dodgers sign one guy to a 1 year deal (possibly with an option) and one guy with a multi year deal. For the injury prone guy, I present the following candidates:
Pedro Martinez - all time leader in ERA+
Randy Johnson - all time leader in height
Ben Sheets - all time leader in being a fun interview
Curt Schilling - Joe Torre's nemesis from 2001, 2004, 2007

And here are some guys who seem like they could last a decent amount of time:
Andy Pettitte - Roger Clemens' buddy
Derek Lowe - underpaid the last 4 years, prepare to overpay him
Jon Garland - delightfully medicore starter, but good for 200 IP

My choice would be a 3 year, $45 million deal for Lowe and a 1 year, $10 million deal for Pedro (with $10 million team option or $2 million buyout).

Relief Pitchers
I don't think there's any reason to try to go for anyone other than an in-house option here. McDonald as the 7th inning guy and Stults as the long man seems like the most logical thing.

25th man
I go with Chin-Lung Hu. I think the guy could be useful as a pinch hitter or late inning replacement.

As for getting Manny Ramirez, I'd rule it out unless we trade Juan Pierre and/or Andruw Jones. After all, the Yankees are looking for a CF...

Free Agent Pitchers

2008-12-01T19:42:00.004-05:00

Closers
Top picks
Francisco Rodriguez
Brian Fuentes
Brad Lidge
These guys have a good shot at being good over the course of their new contracts. Fuentes, because he's older might get a 2 or 3 year deal, but expect 4 years for Lidge and K-Rod. Lidge will command a premium after a great comeback season as he returned to dominance and threw the last pitch of the World Series, although he did take quite a hit from Ryan Howard immediately after.

Runners up
Jason Isringhausen
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera

These guys have been successful closers forever, which is the problem. Mariano stays in NY, no question, don't know why he's on the list. Nathan will be an attractive grab. Isringhausen is a bit of an injury risk, but he's not going to go for too long a deal, and he's still good.

Um, no
Eric Gagne
TrevorHoffman
Todd Jones

Hoffman and Jones are too old. Gagne has lost his dominance, but will still command an $8 million salary, probably from Ed Wade.

Lefty Relievers
A category for adding depth, but not spending more than like $3 million. This includes:
Joe Beimel, Alan Embree, Scott Eyre, Aaron Fultz, Will Ohman, Darren Oliver

Lefty Starters
Grand Prize
CC Sabathia

He'll dazzle you until he blows his arm out. And he's kind of fat. But the dude can pitch, and he'll get a nice deal with the Yankees.

Excellent picks:
Oliver Perez
Andy Pettitte

Pettitte might bring his 4 T's to the Dodgers, and he's a good dependable lefty starter. Perez is a good pick too - solid strikeout rate, and he's young enough to be valuable for a while. Perez tends to be lights out or terrible, more often lights out, though.

One-year deal club:
Randy Johnson
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Jeremy Affeldt
Scott Downs

These players are all old, injury prone, or of questionable talent. But teams will want a lefty starter, so none will be unemployed.

Righty Relievers
Luis Ayala
Joe Borowski
Juan Cruz
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Tom Gordon
LaTroy Hawkins
Guillermo Mota
Rudy Seanez
Julian Tavarez
David Weathers
Dan Wheeler
Kerry Wood

Dempster, Gordon, Farnsworth and Wood will draw the most interest, Wheeler and Tavarez decent picks too. Not a category to spend more than $3 million, though.

Right handed starters
Premium:
John Lackey
Derek Lowe
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Curt Schilling

With all eyes on CC, it's easy to forget how many good pitchers that aren't fat and overpriced there are. Lackey has been constantly brilliant in Southern California, as has Derek Lowe. Burnett is a nice pick, but like Sheets, he's a solid injury risk. Curt Schilling is the best 1 year deal available.

Pretty Good
John Garland
Brad Penny
Kyle Lohse
Paul Byrd

These are #3 starters in a good roation, #2 in most, #1 in a weaker rotation.

Bit Risky:
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Livan Hernandez
Orlando Hernandez
Jason Jennings
Pedro Martinez

The career leader in ERA+ might have to settle for a 1 year deal, and the Hernandez brothers aren't as young as they once were. Jason Jennings got hurt at just the wrong time, so he's an interesting player to take a flyer on. Colon is a fatty, and Clement hasn't been the same since he left Chicago, although much of that can be blamed on Dusty Baker.

Let's talk money

2008-11-01T15:49:00.002-04:00

How much would you pay Manny Ramirez?

The Dodgers have to consider that not only can they afford Ramirez, but they will make more money as a result of having him. Attendance was higher in August and September, and a lot of Manny-related merchandise was sold. Even with only anecdotal evidence, it's not a stretch to think that signing Manny would be worthwhile, even for a monster contract.

The most important realization in the contract is that time is worth more than money. The Seattle Mariners did not hire Kim Ng, so the Dodgers might be able to escape the damage done to the arbitration process in the Ryan Howard case, which will save them money on Broxton, Ethier, and Martin (Billingsley and Kemp are likely not arbitraiton eligible yet), who might want to avoid arbitration. The point is, the Dodgers have kept a fair amount of their costs under control. Also, with their market size and potential to reach 4,000,000 fans with Ramirez, $30,000,000 per year is not a stretch. For Ramirez to be a valuable and productive player beyond the next three seasons, though, would be hard to say. He's got good power and good patience; the power will fade eventually, and the patience will hold until his eyesight declines. His defense is subpar and will not get better, though, which would make him more valuable as a DH, where he would not have to be in the field. The Dodgers don't have as many other DH options available, though.

Personally, I'd go with $80,000,000 over 3 years. That's not too long a commitment and it's plenty of money - Ramirez could easily net $10,000,000 afterward going anywhere (and he'll probably need to DH by then). I don't see the Dodgers offering more than $60,000,000 over 3, though. The best way might be to offer $90,000,000 over 4 years in a heavily front-loaded contract ($5m deferred sign bonus, $30m, $30m, $15m, $10m), and then, they can add an opt-out clause before years 3 and 4. Essentially, it's $65 million over two years with player options for $15 million and $10 million. If Ramirez wants to opt out for more money, no problem, LA might want better defense by then, if not, then he can still play and OPS around .900 at age 38-39.

The Pitching Staff

2008-10-21T20:36:00.002-04:00

Starters definitely coming back:

Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Clayton Kershaw

at this point, Billingsley can be though of as the ace of the staff, except by Bill Plaschke, who will hold his NLCS performance against him for the next couple years. Kuroda turned out to be a rather pleasant surprise - doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but still has good command of the strike zone and works efficiently. Kershaw showed some potential, and as he develops his changeup and slider/cutter he will climb his way up the rotation.

Potential free agent Dodgers:

Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Greg Maddux

I would have expected Lowe to have been traded, but instead the Dodgers face the possibility of only getting two draft picks for him. Lowe has been good every year of his contract, getting his groundball outs, having good command of the strike zone, and not being homer prone. If the Dodgers could only score runs when he starts. Lowe will probably be looking for at least 3 years/$40 million, which might be a lot to pay a guy who'll be 36 next year.

Penny's a tougher case. He's got quite the upside, but he's an injury risk. And a really crappy pitcher when injured. It's tough to say if he'll come back healthy, although he's shown that he can (see 2005), and it might be worthwhile. Penny gets paid $2,000,000 if the Dodgers buy out his option, so keeping the opening day starter is a matter of $7.25 million. Not a bad deal, compared to say Randy Wolf.

Maddux is a candidate for retirement, although he still seems to have a little something left. But I do mean a little something - he's shown that he can get hit pretty hard last year, when his homer rate spiked. Still, he could probably be had for around $8 million; I could see the Dodgers offering him arbitration and him accepting, or even going for a lower offer with LA.

Free Agents on the Market:

CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Jon Garland
Pedro Martinez
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Oliver Perez

The Dodgers will make an offer to Sabathia, but they will not get him because he will make Kevin Brown look cheap. They will be relieved when he tears his rotator cuff in May while wearing the pinstripes in the Bronx. AJ Burnett is an injury waiting to happen, but is still good when healthy - I wouldn't be surprised if he matches JD Drew's Boston deal. I can't help but think he'd remind Colletti too much of JD Drew, though. Ben Sheets would be a fun pick - he's just as goofy as Manny Ramirez, except that he's just as injury prone as Nomar Garciaparra. I wouldn't give him more than a one year deal, and I don't know if any other GM would either. Garland might be intriguing, especially since Anaheim traded for him last year, but I wouldn't expect anything.

Pedro Martinez would be a nice signing - get him to come back where he began his career, and where Tommy Lasorda said he wouldn't be any good, the dumbass that he is. Maybe the Dodgers trade him at the deadline for a crappy second baseman. Either way, he's probably worth about $8 million or so on the free agent market now. Jamie Moyer is older than dirt and hasn't played for the Dodgers yet. Mark Mulder is intriguing, in a Jason Schmidt kind of way. Finally, Oliver Perez has nice strikeout abilities and isn't that old yet, so he might be a sensible signing, I could see him going for about 4 years $45 million in this market.

In House:

James McDonald
Hong-Chi Kuo
Eric Stults
Scott Elbert

McDonald even got the support of Bill Plaschke to be the #5 starter next year, and he'd be a good pick. Granted, he hasn't pitched much more than 150 innings in a season, but the 5th starter can be skipped, and Kershaw can probably go for up to 200, especially under the watchful eye and quick hook of Joe Torre (who knows that after 100 pitches, pitchers don't last long). McDonald's minor league peripherals suggest that the solid player we saw was no fluke, and as Billingsley showed us, minor league K rates sometimes take time to translate to the bigs. Kuo is an option as a starter, especially if one feels it is necessary for a lefty starter, but he is also a very good bullpen option, good against left and right handed hitters. Stults is that 6th starter guy that's useful but you don't know how long you want to keep him, particularly when he gives up as many homers as he does. I think McDonald will be in the rotation by the end of the season, although I don't know if he'll start in the pen first. Working as a reliever helped Billingsley get into a rhythym as a strikeout guy rather than a lucky RISP guy, but McDonald could be fine with either - guess it depends how many major league innings to subject him to. Scott Elbert isn't quite Greg Miller, but he really needs to stop walking people so much, and might need time in AAA to get that down.

My Rotation:

1) Chad Billingsley (R)
2) Hiroki Kuroda (R)
3) Oliver Perez (L)
4) Clayton Kershaw (L)
5) James McDonald (R)

Relievers

Definitely coming back:

Jonathan Broxton
Hong-Chi Kuo
Ramon Troncoso
Cory Wade
Scott Elbert

Broxton is the closer, who is prone to an occasional misgiving, but generally gets the job done. But let's face it, he's better than Eric Gagne is now. Kuo will likely stay in the pen as quite the fixture for a lefty power pitcher. If he's healthy, he is awesome. If he's not, we might not see him the rest of the year. Wade was lucky and Troncoso unlucky on balls in play, but both exhibited a good K/BB and acceptable HR rate. Wade struck out fewer than Troncoso's batter an inning, but he also walked only 3 more batters than Troncoso in 33 1/3 more innings. And while Troncoso might get luckier next year, it is also worth noting that Wade had the much better career minor league numbers (K/BB over 4!). Wade is 3 months younger. Nonetheless, both are good pitchers. Finally, Scott Elbert didn't have a pretty major league debut, but he's back from injury, and with a bit of work on his control could probably be another good left-handed pitcher. I'd expect him to start in the minors to get his control down.

Uncertain for next year:

Takashi Saito

Saito might retire, because he's old and his injury proneness is catching up with him. On the other hand, he might also want to keep pitching and being a dominant member of the pen. As it is, he might still be the closer next year, because when healthy, he's got a decent fastball with great breaking stuff.

Free Agents:

Joe Beimel
Scott Proctor

See you proctor. Beimel will be missed by Troy from West Virginia, unless the Dodgers decide to keep him for some reason. Still, not a bad run for Beimel, though good riddance for Proctor.

Outfield talk

2008-10-18T16:32:00.002-04:00

Now that I blew predicting the NLCS, let's plan for next year.

I think the infield has been discussed fairly well, but it's plain to see that there's not a whole lot of room to improve there, short of a trade. Every so often one will see things about an Adrian Beltre trade, but the wild card out there is a Chipper Jones trade. Beltre is probably the better option because he'll be more durable at a position where the Dodgers don't have depth, he's the superior defender, and he won't cost as much. Chipper Jones could be a Manny-like acquisition, you would get him to win now, but you don't know if you'll hold onto him. While Jones did say that he grew up a Dodger fan, one would think he'd want to bolster his HOF case as a one team player on the Braves (and he definitely has trade veto powers).

So, let's look at the outfield and later on, the rotation.

Outfield
Needs: Left Fielder
Currently have - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Trade Bait - Juan Pierre
DFA Candidate - Andruw Jones. Or he could magically get better and be the starting CF. After all, this is when he's supposed to play for his big contract. I wouldn't expect him to be in LA unless he's on the DL all season or the Dodgers trade for Chipper.
In house - Jason Repko, Delwyn Young. Neither is probably where you'd want a starting outfielder to be, particularly given the state of the infield, although Repko is capable of having productive months when given regular playing time (see April 2006), though in a small sample, that's not too hard.

In the wings - Xavier Paul might see some time mid-season

Free Agents by likelihood- Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr

Ned Colletti would totally pull the trigger on signing Griffey if the Chisox don't pick up his option. Otherwise, it seems like the Dodgers won't pay big time for Ramirez, at least not in years. Colletti hasn't given anyone over 30 more than a 3 year contract, to his credit. I think the Dodgers offer Manny $85 million over 3 years, and that could do it.

Griffey could be had for one or two years at $10 million per. Abreu would go for 2-3 years at about $12 million per. Pat Burrell will get paid more than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn will probably not sign until Ramirez does though; a team that wants Ramirez would likely settle for Dunn. While it would be a very unlikely move for Colletti, I could see him doing it because Dunn's been a 40 HR guy the past 5 years and we'd be taking him from AZ, a double whammy. Dunn will likely get $80 million over 4 years, Burrell might get a bit more.

Outgoing
Pierre isn't much for bait, but he does want a trade, and he's probably still useful to someone. LA will have to eat much of his salary (probably about $20 million worth over the remaining 3 years), but one has to think that he could fit into the NL East. Philadelphia would suffer picking him up for Burrell, although he'd have some nice range in left field, but that would also put another left-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup. The Mets would make sense except they already have Endy Chavez, although outfield depth would be nice. The Nationals have Dukes, Kearns and Milledge, who are better in that outfield, so no thanks (although a Pierre for Kearns swap is believable, especially if the Nats save $10 or 12 million, although there is no substance to that, I'm purely speculating). The Braves possibly, if they need someone to be a stopgap.

I think Pierre gets traded for Endy Chavez and a 25 year old guy in AA, with LA eating $15 million. I think then that the Dodgers stick with Andruw Jones and hope for the best, as Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell will get offers ahead of Manny, the Chisox pick up Griffey's option, and Abreu goes somewhere random.

Parallel Universe

2008-10-08T17:02:00.004-04:00

Let's say we didn't read media reports out of Boston or listen to Curt Schilling's whining. Let's see then, how else me might determine why the Red Sox would trade Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay. Further, let's assume everyone is rational.

Ramirez is 35, and Boston can pay him $20 million a year if they keep him. If not, they get two draft picks in the offseason. Boston is in a win-now situation, and since the Yankees will be bidding for all the good free agents this offseason and the Rays have built a good club, Boston needs to hold onto their core. But this part of their core is aging and is at risk to be injured and have his performance decline.

To replace him in that position, they would be looking at someone who could stay there for a long time. This would be someone younger who projects to have a longer career, maybe a power/speed guy, maybe someone who can be really good defensively. Jason Bay would fit that description nicely, and he's already locked into a contract where he would make less than half of what Manny would make as he reaches his prime.

Pittsburgh is not going to take Manny for Bay, because they don't have that kind of money. Besides, Pittsburgh isn't ready to contend; they still need a pitching staff and could stand to bolster their lineup a bit. A rental of Manny Ramirez would not help them in the postseason, or even to be a winning ballclub. So, thanks, but no thanks. Pittsburgh wants to do what Baltimore did, get 4 or 5 young players for one star player.

Boston does not want to trade their top young players, but they're willing to give up a left fielder for a left fielder. Pittsburgh will not be satisfied with the young players Boston can deliver, so they need someone to take Ramirez. Enter the Dodgers.

Ned Colletti knows what he's doing - LaRoche has been injured and it would be too risky to expose the extent of the damage from that injury, even though his 2008 minor league numbers lack the power he showed the previous two seasons. Sunk costs as they are, Colletti wanted to sell LaRoche as high as possible, and at the same time, he knew that Frank McCourt would throw him out on his ass if he didn't land someone good. This deal comes across to him and naturally it looks like a no-brainer. A guy who's had shoulder and hand injuries possibly destroy his shot at being a good hitting 3rd baseman for a shot at getting to the postseason with one of the best hitters in the game. Naturally, he pulled the trigger, and made the boss man even happier by all the extra revenue that comes in thanks to the new superstar. In his position, he even insists that Boston chips in $7 million to pay for the rest of 2008 for Manny. No problem, says Boston, because they'll save $11 million next year by having Bay instead.

Makes sense for everyone. But what about those media reports? Well, Boston had to see it coming, and they like to burn players as they leave, but then again, so do the Braves. It makes it easier for the fans to swallow. Also, reporters like to sell the gossip stories, because those sell papers. And that's just the way the Boston media does things. But the media storyline is probably just a cover for what was actually going on - Boston and Pittsburgh made moves for the long term, and LA made the best move they could, which does nothing in the long term, but a lot in the short term.

Well, That Was a Shocker

2008-10-05T23:11:00.002-04:00

Ok, so it turns out that the NLCS will be Dodgers-Phillies, but LA swept (I did correctly call Phillies in 4 for the first round). The coverage of the Dodgers and Cubs seems to say almost entirely not so much that the Dodgers were good as that the Cubs were just awful. After all, they had the better regular season record, they had the better defense, etc. But as Billy Beane can tell you, the postseason is a crapshoot.

To be fair though, the Dodgers were a better team than their record suggests. Furcal replacing Berroa is huge at short, and Brad Penny and Andruw Jones are both not on the postseason roster. Manny was not with the team all year, nor was Casey Blake. DeWitt has shown himself to be a streaky player, and currently he's on a good one. Juan Pierre has been a bench player since Manny's acquisition. Scott Proctor stopped getting the ball in key situations - now that goes to Kuo, Broxton, Wade. To be fair, Chan Ho Park gave up the long ball and should have had a higher ERA, but that's all for that part. The Cubs, on the other hand, had a couple of guys having career years - 21 homers for Mark Derosa, an effective year as a starter for Ryan Dempster, for example.

LA faces what was one of the best offenses during the regular season. But remember, they already took on the best of the regular season. And while the Dodgers pitching will be tough to beat, Philly's staff is no group of slouches. When the two teams met earlier in the season, one team was having a good streak while the other had a poor one, resulting in two four game sweeps by the home team. Let's look head to head:

Starting Pitchers (based on NLDS):

Lowe vs Hamels

Billingsley vs Myers

Moyer vs Kuroda

Blanton vs Maddux (?)

Personally I'd like to see Moyer vs Maddux, a combined 87 years old. Wild cards to start are the two left-handed K men, Kershaw and Kuo. Kuo is a health question mark, but he's got excellent stuff and he could come in and surprise Philadelphia. Kershaw could do the job as well, but it seems like the Dodgers would be foolish not to use at least one left-handed starter against the Phillies. The edge here has to go to LA, though, particularly if we see Kershaw.

One thing that surprised me was that LA didn't use half of their pitching staff. We saw Wade, Broxton, Saito and Maddux out of the bullpen, but no Beimel, no Kershaw, no McDonald, no Park. I would expect to see more of some of the guys who didn't get playing time, so Torre can use some new tricks in the NLCS.

Outfield

Manny vs Burrell

Kemp vs Victorino

Ethier vs Werth

Manny beats Burrell, although Pat the bat is not known for his glove, he is a better hitter than Soriano. Ethier edges Werth, because he can hit for average. Kemp edges Victorino because he's got a bit more pop than the Flyin Hawaiian.

Infield

Loney vs Howard

DeWitt vs Utley

Furcal vs Rollins

Blake vs Feliz

Howard edges Loney because first base defense only matters so much. DeWitt is pretty good, but Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball. Furcal edges Rollins, who did not deserve a single award he won last year - Furcal is the rangier shortstop that gets on base more. And Casey Blake doesn't have Pedro Feliz's glove, but Pedro Feliz doesn't get to swing his glove at the plate, even though he probably needs to to hit anything.

Carlos Ruiz has nothing on Russell Martin.

If you look at who's playing over their head, a couple players come to mind on each team still. Ethier's got that BABIP thing going, so if he's hot he's good, if not, then, um, ugh. Not much else for LA. Brad Lidge is not as good as he was this year - no way he only gives up 2 homers in 69.3 innings pitched - and only 1 at home.

I'll say Dodgers in 6 on this one.

NL Playoff Matchups

2008-09-28T00:09:00.002-04:00

This will get very interesting, because nobody in the NL knows who they're playing yet, although we know three teams that will be in it. And we know the Cubs and Phillies play game 1 at home, and the Dodgers play game 3 at home. It comes down to one game for the wildcard, and here are the wildcard contenders (both of whom are the home team):

Milwaukee Brewers
vs Cubs
Angel Guzman (6.13 Career ERA) vs CC Sabathia

The Brewers are fighting for their postseason, while the Cubs are playing for the chance to play the Mets (4-2 cubs for the season series) instead of the Dodgers (5-2 cubs). The Cubs should prefer the Mets: in 6 games this season, they outscored them 41 to 26 while in 7 games they outscored the Dodgers by only 1 run, 19 to 18. That being said, the Brewers will be more than willing to let CC go 12 innings and 200 pitches if that's what it takes to win this one. Expect at least 8 innings for CC and a Brewers win. Day games in that park are also just plain weird because of the glass.

New York Mets
vs Florida Marlins
Scott Olsen vs Oliver Perez

Oliver Perez is one of those guys people think is pretty good but still find disappointment with his high walk totals and above average HR rate. The fact is though that the guy is 27 and isn't going to pitch that differently. Still, the Mets have had a solid lineup, although they face another solid one. I'd say edge Mets because of the way Olsen has declined. The Mets are overall beating the Marlins in the season series by a reasonable margin.

Tiebreaker Game
Seth McClung vs Pedro Martinez

Two or Three Years ago, Pedro would have made this a guaranteed win. As it is, he's not doing too well, but he is probably the Mets' best option. McClung isn't anything special, though, so if nothing else, it'll be a battle of sluggers, but given Pedro's homer rate this year, I'd have to say edge Brewers.

So since I'm predicting Brewers for the wild card, here's who faces off then:

Dodgers vs Cubs

Brewers vs Phillies

1) Dodgers vs Cubs
Rotation

Game 1: Derek Lowe vs Ryan Dempster
Game 2: Chad Billingsley vs Carlos Zambrano
Game 3: Rich Harden vs Hiroki Kuroda
Game 4: Ted Lilly vs Greg Maddux

Up until Lilly vs Maddux, this looks like it's fairly even, perhaps even favoring LA. Not only has Billingsley had a good year, but Zambrano hasn't pitched since Sept 2 due to shoulder problems. Odds are that if he does pitch that he's not all better, and if that's the case he'll be down some velocity, have flatter pitches, and be easier to hit.

Starting Lineup:

LF: Alfonso Soriano vs Manny Ramirez
CF: Jim Edmonds vs Matt Kemp
RF: Kosuke Fukudome vs Andre Ethier

Manny is a better hitter than Sori, with better OBP skills. Soriano, though, has the defensive edge. Something that you never thought you'd hear 5 years ago. The reverse is probably true in center field, although Edmonds ability to read the ball probably gives him a slight defensive edge. In Right, though, no contest: all about Ethier.

1B: Derrek Lee vs James Loney
2B: Mark DeRosa vs Jeff Kent/Blake DeWitt
3B: Aramis Ramirez vs Casey Blake/Blake DeWitt
SS: Ryan Theriot vs Rafael Furcal
C: Geovany Soto vs Russell Martin

The only clear advantage for the Dodgers would be if Rafael Furcal really is healthy. If he can hold up, he's definitely got it. Lee and A-Ram are top corner men, good as Loney and Blake might be. DeRosa has done well as a Cub, and will probably continue to do so. Soto has emerged as a good young catcher and has hit for power more, though Martin has honed his on-base skills so well that it's really hard to discount him.

The Cubs have a bit of an edge on offense. It will probably come down to bullpens and luck to determine this series. I'll be optimistic and say Dodgers in 5, though.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers

Two teams with power hitting lineups and iffy pitching depth. The Phillies had Brad Lidge, the Brewers had Eric Gagne. I don't care about this one as much, and it's late. Just guessing, though, I'd say edge to Philadelphia. They hit for average and get on base more. Phillies in 4, because CC won't start against Hamels.

Jayson Stark on Manny

2008-08-14T17:52:00.003-04:00

The accusations against Ramirez are that he dogged it during July before the trade, sinking his value. He must have been really awful right?

Yeah, .340/.447/.627 awful.

But that's the whole month; what about from the all-star break to the trade?

He hit .351/.467/.622.

He was actually a little better for that part of July.

Now let's read what Jayson Stark wrote.

For a man who decided his personal net worth was more important than an entire franchise and all the people who played with him, covered for him, depended on him?

Sheez. How sad is that?

"It really bothers me," one GM said this week of the Manny-mania lovefest that has unfolded in L.A. "What he did in Boston was criminal. Now he goes there, and everything's OK? No, sir. It doesn't change the fact that how he got there was criminal."

Remember, .351/.467/.622 is criminal. You want my guess as to which GM said that? Brian Cashman. Let's remember that Ramirez has made trade requests every year since 2004. Let's also remember that his performance in Boston was still quite good and useful.

OK, here's why you should care: Because this could easily morph into a giant problem for every franchise; for the entire sport, in fact.

If Manny Ramirez wanders into the free-agent market this winter and gets anything close to the four years and $100 million he believes he'll get, think about the message that would send, the precedent that would set.

First of all, does it piss anyone else off when MLB deemed synonymous with the entire sport of baseball? There are other levels, other leagues, other countries which play, and Japan won the WBC.

Secondly, if Manny Ramirez gets a 4 year $100m deal, I'll laugh. Because that would mean someone would take a chance on him being $25 million good at age 40, when we could expect a .295/.385/.455 line. Given that there's still a reasonable chance that he could have some more injuries (which were actually not all faked). On the line about Ramirez making up injuries, though, the Dodgers do that all the time with their bad players. The most recent example being Andruw Jones:

TORRE SAID there's some thought of putting AndruwJones on the disabled list to make room for the return of Nomar Garciaparra. "That knee is still sore," Torre said of Jones. "We'll see what the doctor has to say."
Ten minutes later Jones was spotted in center field trying to catch a fly ball -- hurdling the 3 1/2 -foot white fence used to hold back fans before the game, and looking like an Olympic hopeful.

Besides, the Dodgers would only accuse their young players of faking injury. Like Tony Abreu. Who really was seriously injured, and still is. Maybe Manny and LA are a good match.

But seriously, if you want to pander to Red Sox fans, that's one thing, but let's face it, Manny is a good player, and all three of these teams had good reasons to make the move. LaRoche wasn't getting playing time in LA and Pittsburgh needed a 3B. Bay is not only a good hitter but also a good defender, and is signed to a nice cheap contract; not a bad haul. Manny is a very very good hitter. It worked out all around, and Pittsburgh got a few other players too.

Infield Options 2008

2008-08-14T00:28:00.003-04:00

The Dodgers have one sure bet for the infield in 2008: James Loney. Beyond him, much is up in the air.

Second Base
Free Agents: Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Ray Durham
In House: Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young

As it is, Ellis is the leading candidate now for a free agent 2B signing because of Orlando Hudson's season-ending injury. Picking up Hudson would be a risky move - you don't know what he's going to do offensively. Felipe Lopez would be the low buy, and Ray Durham is an old dude who can't play defense, but at least he can get on base.

DeWitt is probably still a contender for the third base job, but don't forget Delwyn Young. Larry Bowa thinks he can play second, so that can't be ruled out yet.

Shortstop
Free Agents: Rafael Furcal, Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria
In House: Chin-Lung Hu, Russell Martin

Let's throw this out there now: Martin is not moving from behind the plate unless Saltalamacchia, etc falls in the Dodgers lap. If they were willing to trade Lowe at the deadline, this might be feasible, but now, not so much.

Furcal is an injury question. After being out almost all season and having an abysmal year at the plate (although being amazing when healthy), he's likely to take a 1 year deal. Provided he's happy in LA, I can see him staying, so it would appear he's most likely to remain a Dodger. The real question is who plays in September - if it's Furcal, then it's likely he comes back. If Furcal is hurt and Hu gets a chance and does well, Furcal will get offered arbitration so LA gets draft picks, and Hu becomes the starting shortstop. Neither other free agent option looks good, unless Hu is particularly bad in September and Furcal doesn't look like he'll be healthy soon.

Third Base
Free agents: Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Mark Teixiera*,
In House: Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin
Trade: Adrian Beltre

I mention Beltre because it seems like a DePo correction that he could enjoy, and it is true that Beltre is a good defensive 3B as well as a decent hitter. I don't see LA giving up players for him for just a year, though, but that could all depend on what Colletti is thinking on a particular day. Nomar keeps getting hurt, but it looks like he can still hit some, so he remains a viable option at third. Blake is gone. Teixiera has played 15 games at the major league level at third base, the position where he was originally drafted. He's a very good defensive first baseman, and I would be surprised if he switched back. DeWitt seems like he'll get a starting job next year, somehow, but I'm not sure where; third would seem likely.

Most Likely
Loney
DeWitt
Furcal
Nomar

This would be the most status quo of the lineups, and would make sense with DeWitt playing 2nd in Vegas, even with LaRoche gone. The goal with Furcal would be to get him back at a discount for one year, but it may only be down to about $8 million. Nomar will probably re-sign for less than he's making now, but I would guess a 2 year $12 million deal.

Loney
DeWitt
Guzman
Nomar

As much as I don't want Christian Guzman and I know Vin Scully likes saying "O-Dog," Torre and co like DeWitt more than Hu, so I'd expect to see Nomar at third and DeWitt at 2nd, and a stopgap SS in the meantime, if Fucal doesn't stay. I really don't see LA suddenly favoring Hu after letting Angel Berroa have a job for so long, unless Logan White is the new GM.

Manny?

2008-08-03T03:07:00.002-04:00

Well we got Manny Ramirez, but it did cost us Andy LaRoche.

One thing though: Manny says he wants to stay in LA. He likes the relaxed atmosphere, being loved by fans, but having his peace off the field. At 35 he wouldn't get a 4 or 5 year contract, but one could see a 3 year deal easily to keep him here. McCourt is probably excited enough to green light Colletti to extend him, even with agent Boras.

So what does that mean?

If we keep Manny, we'll need to retain Furcal or pay for a 3B/2B. Our other viable choice would be Orlando Hudson. We could also expect about a .700 OPS from each of those players. Tony Abreu presumably would still have healthy issues.

We would also want as many homegrown options as possible. Which could mean, surprise, DY plays second. Remember also that Xavier Paul will be ready soon, so he or Ethier could be traded. It could also mean we'd find a way to accept Jones and or Pierre as a sunk cost and then just try to dump them or trade them off and pay only most of their salary.

Lineup in 2009

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
DeWitt
Hu

This actually doesn't look bad, although it does depend a good bit on Furcal's health. Otherwise, we'll see:

Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Loney
Abreu/DY
DeWitt
Hu

So Furcal looks like a good pickup. If no Manny or Furcal, then we'll probably get Sabathia or Sheets, which gives us this rotation:

Sabathia
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw

which is just plain sick, and would let me feel better about the lineup.

The Future

2008-05-12T04:30:00.000-04:00

Because why be satisfied with the present. Currently, the Dodgers are committed to the following players next year:

2009
C - Russell Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - (Blake DeWitt)
SS - (Chin-Lung Hu)
3B - (Andy LaRoche)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Matt Kemp

SP - Brad Penny
SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Jason Schmidt
SP - Clayton Kershaw

BN - Juan Pierre (OF)
BN - Tony Abreu (INF)
BN - Young/Repko (OF)
BN - Lucas May (C)
BN - Nomar Garciaparra (INF/PH)
BN - lefty PH

RP - Jonathan Broxton
RP - Yhency Brazoban
RP - Scott Proctor
RP - Cory Wade
RP - Hong-Chi Kuo
RP - Joe Beimel

Well first, the Red is speculation on re-signing, green is speculation on call-ups for players who don't have major league service time yet, and blue is speculation on who we'd get from NRIs. The problem with this estimate is that it assumes no Ned factor. Colletti, despite being the incumbent, keeps wanting to make a huge signing in the offseason. He blew a bunch of money on Pierre and Schmidt, Andruw Jones last year.

Leaving via free agency then would be:
Derek Lowe
Esteban Loaiza
Rafael Furcal

The Dodgers will offer Lowe and Furcal arbitration, unless they're insane, netting them 5 first round draft picks, potentially.

What the hell is going on with DeWitt over LaRoche

2008-05-05T02:27:00.004-04:00

The problem with Dewitt at 2nd is that Torre likes him too much to try LaRoche, which is really mroe a problem with Torre.

The Dodgers optioned LaRoche to AAA, even though he could have taken more time on his rehab assignment. LaRoche is hitting .154/.354/.385 after 5 games in Vegas, with 4 walks, a single and a homer. All I need to see is a couple extra base hits to see that his power is still there, and then I figure you call the guy up. Torre hasn't seen enough of LaRoche, and he's had a couple of injuries. He's also not a proven vet like Nomar, so he doesn't get the pass there.

Torre makes Grady Little look like he can cleverly manage a pitching staff. The way he burns through relievers and yanks starters too early is a bit mind-numbing. Deciding to bullshit around with Martin at third, especially with a piece of shit like Gary Bennett as the backup catcher is terrible too. Granted, that one is more Colletti's fault for trading Navarro for Mark Hendrickson, but hey.

The best explanation I have is the Dodgers think that Dewitt's stock is really high right now and they're looking to trade him. That, and they want to make sure the thumb injury doesn't kill LaRoche. Still, though, a good manager and GM should put the best team out there, and that's not happening if LaRoche is healthy but in Vegas.

Week 1 review

2008-04-07T01:09:00.005-04:00

So my fantasy teams are doing ok, my head to head team more than my roto league team. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 4-2. Let's see how.

Game1: Penny vs Zito, W 5-0.
Gamescores: Penny 67, Zito 35
Zito got destroyed

Game 2: Lowe vs Cain, W 3-2
Gamescores: Lowe 50, Cain 66
Furcal scores from 2nd on a grounder to Ray Durham to win the game.

Game 3: Kuo vs Valdez, L 1-2
Gamescores: Kuo 57, Valdez 60
Rain delays scratch Billingsley vs Lincecum, although both appear in relief.

Game 4: Kuroda vs Germano, W 7-1
Gamescores: Kuroda 71, Germano 67
Kuroda goes 7 on 77 pitches, Dodger offense comes alive

Game 5: Penny vs Peavy, L 1-4
Gamescores: Penny 38, Peavy 86
Doesn't that say it all? Peavy goes the distance allowing two hits.

Game 6: Lowe vs Young, W 3-2
Lowe 61, Young 64
Guess Hu beat Hoffman?

The Dodger bullpen was really the unsung hero. The offense didn't do a whole lot, and the starters were outdone for the most part.

No Surprise

2008-04-05T19:20:00.006-04:00

Juan Pierre had his agent call Pierre and demand more playing time. From Gurnick

General manager Ned Colletti said he received a call from Pierre's agent asking for clarification of his role and Colletti said he delivered a message that the better Pierre performed in the opportunities he had, the more playing time he was likely to earn.

The better Pierre performed in the oppurtunities he had? An 8 year major league career will tell you the type of player Juan Pierre is. Signing him for 5 years was a horrendous disaster, and Colletti refuses to admit that he might have been a little bit shortsighted. And stupid. Ethier had a great year and then a weak September when injured. Dave Roberts was available - you could bring back a popular ex-Dodger who's a similar player, and you could bench him too. Kenny Lofton could have been re-signed - especially when you knew Jones was a free agent the next year. But Colletti chose Pierre for 5 years, and was completely surprised by a relatively informed fan base who could figure that batting average doesn't matter without walking or power, unless it's like .330 or someting.

But let's remember, Pierre did not lose the starting job until after Spring Training. Why? Because Joe Torre made the decision, because he's the $4million manager and Colletti wanted to pass the buck and wash his hands of the situation. And Torre, the $4million manager, doesn't have to make a decision in February. He's not supposed to look at video or statistics or scouting reports in the offseason, he's supposed to see them in person. So naturally he based it off of Spring Training. But I'll give Torre some credit - he tried Kemp and Ethier in center field - if Pierre's arm was keeping him in left, why not see if the other guys can play center?

But seriously, the current regime is not going to make judgements based on reasonable assessments.

Time for Fantasy!

2008-03-24T11:40:00.003-04:00

That's right, with the season starting, it's time for fantasy. And since I barely have time to write anything (but really need a post here), here's a few points quickly.

Why to do it

First of all, it will allow you to see what's going on all over the league. Sure A-Rod, Pujols, Santana, and the other first round dudes will put up great numbers. But where are you going to find that flier to pick up mid-season that will take off? Who will be Francisco Liriano or Hanley Ramirez for you?

Secondly, it reveals how a good night or a bad night can be determined by one hit, or even one walk. That enables you to get more points for a run, RBI, stolen base, etc.

Thirdly, it will demonstrate which statistics translate year to year and which ones do not. WHIP and K/9 translate more than ERA, etc. Some stats are dependent on the team more than the player (RBI, R, W, S) - look for #3 or #4 hitters for RBI and runs, even on worse teams.

How to do it

Go to any major sports site (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo!) and look for fantasy. Don't play for money, unless it's either so low that it's just enough to make the league more competitive, or if you're an expert and like gambling. But if you're an expert, would you be reading this?

Look at the scoring rules and lineup rules. CBS does weekly lineups, and ESPN and Yahoo! can do daily lineups (and allow for MUCH MORE customization). Scoring rules will depend on whether you do head to head or a rotisserie league. In a head to head league, you'll get points for different events, and in roto leagues, it's about being ahead in each category.

Find a league with a draft time that looks good. Then do a bit of research, and have fun!

Tips
Buy low, sell high. Don't trade if desperate for a player - look for free agents. Also watch for free agents that could be hot prospects that might do it. Be aware of a player's career trends - if he hits for decent average but is slumping early on, get him. If a player is hitting better than he will the rest of the year, ship him out. I swapped Kevin Youkilis for Ryan Howard last year in May.

Get closers, and keep starting pitchers on your bench, avoiding injury risks as position players. You can use starters when other starters aren't playing, or in weekly leagues, use pitchers with 2 starts over those with just 1.

And have fun!

The only thing dumber than pre-season predictions

2008-02-18T12:21:00.003-05:00

Is a Bill Plaschke column. Especially when he gives good players a hard time.

What seemed like clubhouse defiance is now calm confidence.

That deer-in-the-headlights look has become an unfettered focus.
That is the ADD style of Plaschke. defiance does not match with deer-in-headlights. That would me more like Jeff Kent, who is a very old man. Or Grady Little, who is gone now.

Besides, Chad Billingsley is the one from Defiance (OH).

Matt Kemp will pay his own way?

The Dodgers' season depends on it.

Their unwillingness to deal him prevented them from obtaining this winter's top traded pitchers -- Johan Santana, Erik Bedard or Dan Haren.

No, those packages all took like 5 players each. Santana also came with a $140 million extention. Seattle gave up essentially Kemp, Beimel, Greg Miller, and two top A+ ball pitchers, to give the Dodger equivalent. Besides, the Dodgers don't have that great a weakness in starting pitching. They need an offense. They scored 85 fewer runs in 2007 than 2006. 85! That's half a run a game. Adding a single pitcher won't bring the team ERA down by .5 unless he posts an ERA of like 1 for 200 innings.

The Dodgers believe that by keeping his cannon in the middle of their lineup, Kemp would blow enough smoke to shroud the hole at the top of their rotation.

What? Here's the top of the Dodgers' rotation last year:
Penny - 151 ERA+, 33 GS
Billingsley - 138 ERA+, 20 GS
Lowe - 118 ERA +, 32 GS

Here's where the decent starters were
Randy Wolf - 97 ERA+, 18GS

There were 59 games started by other starters. Two other starters at an ERA+ of 100 would have been an improvement, but no dice. No other starter pitched as well. Hiroki Kuroda could stay healthy and have a 4.5 ERA and that would help the rotation a lot. Loaiza and David Wells sucked.

Now Matt Kemp has to save the season.

No. Now Joe Torre has to play the right players (bench Nomar and Pierre for LaRoche and Ethier), Ned Colletti has to put the right players on the roster (Kershaw, McDondald, Wade, LaRoche), and Rafael Furcal has to hit for his career averages (ie SLG more than 400).

He can save it with his bat, capable of at least 20 home runs, at least 80 runs batted in, at least an on-base percentage in the mid-.300s.

He can save it with his arm, which is right-field strong, and his feet, which are 20 stolen-bases fast.

Who told Plaschke about OBP? And seriously, mid .300s? That's a huge variation, from like .330 to .370. Kemp can definitely help with his ability. This is true. It is also obvious. What else does Plaschke suggest? He's got a list, so I'll number them.

(1) Will he show up at the park early for extra work? (2) Will he stay late for interviews? (3) Will he win the praise of veterans who will judge him as much on his hustled groundouts as on his home runs?

Question 1 migh be relevant, especially if he works on something useful like recognizing pitches out of the zone. The 2nd one is entirely irrelevant, and Plaschke needs to realize he isn't helping the team by being a columnist, but that's not his job. The 3rd one doesn't matter, it's just a question of how much of an asshole Jeff Kent will be.

The veterans thought the kids didn't respect winning. They thought they didn't respect the game.

The veterans quietly complained about everything from late clubhouse arrivals to dumb baserunning errors to smiles after losses.

Jeff Kent doesn't smile after a win. What the hell. Taking losses in stride and not getting bogged down? Making the same mistakes veterans make? What jerks.

Quick! Make some predictions!

2008-02-15T20:48:00.002-05:00

Well, this will be a challenge, because one has to guess which players get playing time, who gets injured, who plays freakishly well, who loses everything, etc. But might as well jump out before everyone else. Even though Kyle Lohse is still unemployed.

National League - AL review to come later.

EAST
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Mets have a bit of a weakness at 2nd base, but other than the September collapse of Jose Reyes, they should own the division. Pedro looked like himself in September, at least by the numbers, and adding Santana should make that the best rotation at least in the division, if not the league. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either El Duque or Mike Pelfrey will fill out the rotation, probably quite successfully.

Philadelphia still lacks a lot of pitching depth behind Hammels, and in the absence of Aaron Rowand's career year, their offense will have to put in a little more effort to keep being awesome.
Atlanta is missing Andruw Jones and Kotsay is an injury risk, as is Chipper Jones, which is a shame. A full year of Chipper would be huge for Atlanta. The Braves do have the potential to outdo the Phillies if their offense keeps up, particularly with Renteria now in Detroit. Healthy years from Gonzalez and Soriano will also vastly help Atlanta, although Joey Devine would have been huge for Atlanta. Smoltz and Glavine are both older than dirt, though, so you never know there, and I don't think Mike Hampton will ever be healthy again. He probably forgot what baseballs look like.

The Marlins had an ugly year last year, but they should be getting Olson back from injury. They are down Cabrera, but they got Maybin, who will fill the centerfield hole - yeah, the Marlins look like they miss Juan Pierre. Their power-hitting middle infield, though, is still quite young.

The Nats made some nice acquisitions with Dukes and Milledge, but that doesn't change that they might actually start Christian Guzman at short still. On top of that, their pitching staff has some upside but is far too injury prone to inspire a lot of confidence.

Central
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Astros

At the very least, I'd say there's a split between the top 3 good teams and the bottom 3 bad teams.

The Brewers have had a lot of key components, they just seem to be able to overpay someone every year. Jeff Suppan last year, now Eric Gagne. Sheets in a contract year should be thrilling, and Capuano will be trying to rebound from a poor injury-riddled season where his opponents' average against jumped up from .260 to .280. Not to mention Braun, Fielder and Weeks are offensive forces that aren't making outs all over.

The Cubs won the division last year, and yes, Zambrano's ERA was half a point higher than his career mark. Who knows. Lou Pinella isn't terribly stupid, but I don't see two years in a row. Even if Ted Lilly is that good.

The Cardinals have room to improve, like having Carpenter pitch, but the problem is that won't be until July. Mulder might be alive, but we won't hear from him until May, and what will he pitch like? Mulder has not been effective since 2005 (sort of like Jeff Weaver). Glaus for Rolen is a lateral move, except Glaus might have more power left. Both will spend half the year on the DL. Izturis will make more outs, defensively and offensively, than Eckstein.

The Reds have Dusty Baker managing. Homer Bailey, the hope for their future, should pray that Baker gets arrested and tabbed as Barry Bonds' real supplier, preventing him from forcing Bailey to throw 140 pitches 3 games in a row. Baker will also despise Adam Dunn from clogging the bases with his three true outcome awesomeness.

The Pirates should get improvement from Jason Bay - not sure what happened there. Adam Laroche should probably knock a couple more out too. I still don't hold but so many high hopes for Pittsburgh, but we shall see.

The Astros are the stupidest organization in baseball. Tejada is an ok acquisition, except that he's getting old and isn't as good, and probably used steroids. Why they couldn't wait another day for the Mitchell Report is beyond me. But more importantly, their pitching is no longer a strength beyond Roy Oswalt.

WEST
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

Brandon Webb is good. Micah Owings is good. Randy Johnson might be healthy. But the Diamondbacks on top of that said, hell, let's get Dan Haren. The team is very dependent on its young core, with the reigning old dudes being crazy-haired Eric Byrnes, crazy bald man Kirk Gibson, and grumpy old coot Randy Johnson. That might put the D-Backs over the top.

Sure the Rockies got really hot at the end of last year, but they're good. Cook doesn't strike people out, but he's a groundball machine. Morales and Jiminez are up-and-coming. But let's not forget the superstars on the team: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton. Helton is like what Kevin Youkilis would be if he were 35 and not fat. They have the same beehive goatee thing too.

The Dodgers have upside that's dictated not just by their young players, but by Joe Torre. Hopefully, Torre won't do anything stupid like play Pierre over Ethier or play Nomar over Laroche. Additionally, they have all kinds of question marks like Kuroda, Jones, Furcal (who was still awesome defensively last year), Schmidt, Kuo, Brazoban, and Jeff Kent. They could potentially be a first place team, but nothing is certain.

The Padres plan to kill Jim Edmonds by making him run around their giant centerfield. Mark Prior has not pitched effectively since 2005, but he's worth a shot for $1,000,000. Randy Wolf has a nice curve and good K rate, and PETCO will keep the ball in the park, but he's still an injury risk too. I'm still optimistic that Hoffman will implode spectacularly around July or so.

The Giants have no position players. They overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who will still be better than anyone else on their team at hitting a baseball. Losing Bonds will make certain that the Giants don't get out of the cellar.

Spring Training

2008-02-11T02:11:00.000-05:00

Sadly, we're looking at a situation where the Dodgers' manager has no clue what to think of his team. He wants to see them first. No opinions of anyone yet.

Jon Weisman has a Spring Training preview. Here's my quick and dirty version:

Starting Pitchers
1) Brad Penny
2) Derek Lowe
3) Chad Billingsley
4) Hiroki Kuroda
5) Jason Schmidt - health pending
6) Hong-Chih Kuo - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - above two health and quality pending
8) Eric Stults - desperation pending

Relief Pitchers
1) Takashi Saito
2) Jon Broxton
3) Scott Proctor
4) Joe Beimel
5) Rudy Seanez - almost a sure thing
6) Yhency Brazoban - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - quality pending
8) Mike Myers - health/desparation pending

Catcher
Russell Martin
Joe Benchwarmer

First Base
James Loney
Nomar Garciaparra

Second Base
Jeff Kent
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu

Shortstop
Rafael Furcal
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu

Third Base
Andy LaRoche
Nomar Garciaparra
Tony Abreu

Outfield
Andruw Jones
Matt Kemp
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Delwyn Young
Jason Repko
John-Ford Griffin

Nothing new here. Bench Nomar, bench Pierre, and much will be good. For a real good time, have LaRoche bat leadoff. A more realistic lineup:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
Ethier
LaRoche

by July, I'd like,

Furcal
Loney
LaRoche
Kemp
Jones
Kent
Ethier
Martin

Marting batting 8th to preserve him. Or something. Batting 2nd is a bitch for a catcher.

How Much Better is Nick Markakis than Andre Ethier?

2008-01-31T12:49:00.000-05:00

Markakis the 7th overall pick in 2003 while Ethier was a 2nd round pick that year. Markakis is a more athletic outfielder with a bit more power, and he's also a year and a half younger.

Let's run some numbers:

Markakis
2003 minors (Age 19, A-): .283/.374/.395
2004 minors (Age 20, A): .299/.373/.470
2005 minors (Age 21, A+/AA): .310/.390/.504
2006 majors: .291/.351/.448 (106 OPS+), .268 EqA, 7.1 WARP3
2007 majors: .300/.362/.485 (121 OPS+), .284 EqA, 9.6 WARP3

Ethier
2003 minors (Age 21, A-/A): .296/.364/.389
2004 minors (Age 22, A+): .314/.379/.442
2005 minors (Age 23, AA): .317/.384/.492
2006 majors: .308./365/.477 (113 OPS+), .282 EqA, 3.5 WARP3
2007 majors: .284/.350/.452 (103 OPS+), .267 EqA, 5.0 WARP3

The folks at B-P give a lot of credence to Markakis' superior defense, though to be fair, Ethier played better defense in 2007 when he did not hit as well. Even then, though, that would lead one to compare Markakis' 2006 to Ethier's 2007, and Markakis comes out on top by a couple of wins. Markakis also could potentially play center, something Ethier doesn't have in his arsenal.

Markakis is better, and has the level of talent to be a franchise player, provided that Baltimore can afford him in 4 years. That doesn't mean Ethier's a bad player, but he's not they kind of player you would build your team around.

Can Pierre be benched? Or - how to make $36 million matter

2008-01-06T13:46:00.000-05:00

Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have in common that the Dodgers owe each of them $36 million for the remainder of their contracts. And that they were signed to play centerfield.

Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre

Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?

That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.

Crazy Trade Market

2008-01-04T03:02:00.001-05:00

Just to show that you never know what will happen, Billy Beane sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 top prospects. Looking at this, the White Sox have a reasonable chance to improve in 2008. Consider the following:

Whitesox.com has Swisher as the starting Center Fielder on the White Sox depth chart. Carlos Quentin has some upside in left field, and Swisher will hit something along the lines of .270/.375/.470 or something like that. The southsiders will not start Uribe or Podsednik next year, and their lineup will look like this (presumably):

Cabrera
Swisher
Konerko
Thome
Dye
Pierzynski
Quentin
Crede
Richar

This should be an improvement, although it remains to be seen what will happen in that division. The Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The Royals blew $36 million on Jose Guillen. The Twins lost Torii Hunter to free agency and may trade Johan Santana (but they'd screw with everyone if they kept him and left him and Liriano atop the rotation). In Cleveland, the question of what happens to Paul Byrd is accompanied by will Pronk recover from merely being good back to being supremely super awesome? A better year from him could help ward off Detroit, especially with the 1-2 of Sabathia and Carmona.

Nonetheless, if Swisher can go, it would seem that anyone can go.

On the Usefullness of the Mitchell Report

2007-12-28T12:35:00.000-05:00

The Mitchell Report contains information about players using steroids, HGH, etc. Here is the run-down of all former Dodgers (major league team only), and the quality of their evidence:

Kevin Brown: Radomski says he supplied Brown with HGH and steroids several times, and even produced a copy of a USPS Express Mail package. Enough to arouse suspicion.

Chris Donnels: Admitted to using steroids, HGH, and other drugs. Check included as well. Suspicious.

Eric Gagne: Mentions LoDuca bought him some the first time and later Gagne bought some himself. Includes USPS Express Mail receipt. Suspicious.

Matt Herges: Referred by LoDuca, wrote "Thanks!" in memo line of check. Probably true.

Phil Hiatt: Bought steroids and HGH, no checks or USPS receipts. Not compelling enough.

Darren Holmes: Told reporters he ordered HGH but never used it. Cut and dry.

Todd Hundley: Radomski sold him stuff and knew him since 1988. Donnels said he talked to him about steroids and Radomski when on the Dodgers too. Prett solid testimony, although physical evidence would be nice.

Mike Judd: Dodgers AAA strength and conditioning guy observed Judd and LoDuca inject each other with steroids. Compelling.

Paul Lo Duca: Letters to Radomski, records, 3 checks in the appendix, and mentions of referrals and injections. HGH and Steroids. A whole lot of stuff on this guy, most likely to go to jail (or at least deserve to).

Adam Riggs: Used HGH & Steroids. Referred by LoDuca. Moneygram and checks. Strong evidence.

F.P. Santangelo: Used HGH & Steroids. Checks. Referred Piatt. Doesn't look good.

Gary Sheffield: Use the cream on his knees, referred to by Bonds, Greg Anderson. Admitted to it, sort of.

Ismael Valdez: Reported by SF Chronicle to have bought HGH. Not enough to go on, but he sucks.

Todd Williams: Radomski said he sold him steroids once in 2001. Not too compelling, but suspicious.

It is particularly interesting how few sources provided so much information, which would lead one to believe that there is definitely more to be found. However, one has to wonder why so much inconsistency for receipt copies, checks, etc for some players over others.

Dodgers Year in Review 2007 - Pitching

2007-12-23T19:20:00.000-05:00

For the starting rotation, you can categorize the pitchers in the following (ERA for that particular role):

Good Starters (518.3 IP, 85 GS)
Brad Penny (3.03 ERA) - helped most by allowing very few home runs (only 9), although his other peripheral stats (135K and 73BB in 208 IP) don't shine that much. Penny may very well regress a bit next year, but he has been more efficient, which may help that homer rate.
Derek Lowe (3.90 ERA)- tough luck year for Lowe, who went 12-14 with a 3.88 ERA, a weird record for a 118 ERA+. Lowe's sinker was sinking, his k rate was decent too. The big story was that he got injured for the first time in his career this year, and he might be getting a bit old.
Chad Billingsley (3.38 ERA) - in his age 22 season, Billingsley put up a 138 ERA+ in 147 innings. His three true outcome numbers all seemed to worsen a bit when he was put in the starter role, although his K rate remained good, and could reasonably be expected to improve in 2008.

Banged-up Starters (156.3 IP, 30 GS)
Jason Schmidt (6.31 ERA) - shoulder problems ended his season early, and affected his performance horribly. It is unclear what he will do in 2008.
Hong-Chi Kuo (6.75 ERA) - or Guo, to some people. Flashes of brilliance and a really awesome bat flip cannot change the fact that this Taiwanese lefthander is a constant injury risk with a history of elbow problems.
Randy Wolf (4.73 ERA) - sadly he came back from injury only to be injured again. When he was starting, though, he was generally good until he started to get hurt, as one can ascertain from his 94K in 102 IP. Nice curve, though.

Forgettable (242.3 IP, 47 GS)
Brett Tomko (5.56 ERA) - finally got released. He started 15 games for the Dodgers, and posted a 79 ERA+. Good riddance, although we'll miss his paintings.
Mark Hendrickson (6.13 ERA) - slightly better than Tomko. And taller. And left handed. But still, Hendrickson sucked and started 15 games.
Esteban Loaiza (8.34 ERA) - we bail out Billy Beane and pick him up off waivers. He really sucked and should go to the bullpen if he's even on the team. Big waste of money by Ned.
David Wells (5.12 ERA) - fat fat fatty. Nothing special as a pitcher, but made us all laugh by bunting his way on base.
Eric Stults (5.68 ERA) - an option down in AAA, but not one you would really depend on regularly.

Essentially, the Dodgers had 3 good starters and a lot of bad ones. If Kuroda can put up at least a 4.5 ERA and Schmidt can make 20 healthy starts, the rotation should be quite solid.

Bullpen

Didn't know you were here
Derek Lowe um yeah, he's a starter
Yhency Brazoban - the new dreifort
Hong-Chi Kuo - he should be a starter, when he's healthy
Eric Hull - not bad in a brief stint
Jon Meloan - didn't impress in the majors in a brief stint, but he's still young
Eric Stults - not really impressive here, but didn't do much out of the pen

Blah
Brett Tomko - Tomko sucked out of the pen too. He was decent in this role last year, but his failure here forced Colletti to release him.
Roberto Hernandez - what the hell? The dude is 40 and bad.

A List
Saito - awesome, awesome, awesome. Will make you believe closers matter again.
Broxton - A great pitcher at the back of the pen, and will be a great closer himself someday.
Billingsley - earned a promotion by being lights out in the pen

A-/B+ List
Beimel - Beimel continued to be a great piece to have in the bullpen, useful against lefthanders or righthanders, as a lefty relief pitcher should be.
Proctor - not bad, I'll admit. While I don't think he was worth Betemit, he still makes the bullpen a lot deeper.
Hendrickson - surprisingly effective as a reliever, including a K/BB over 4. As long as he doesn't insist on starting, he should be good.
Seanez - a surprise this year, pitching quite effectively at age 38 or so.
Houlton - not bad, but don't expect him to be a regular reliever.
Tsao - were it not for the injury, would be in the A list. Retired 24 straight batters or something and was phenomenal to start the season.

T.O. Makes excuses for his teammate

2007-12-21T08:28:00.000-05:00

I'm not a general sports blogger, but this was just funny.

The headline was probably the real news here in this story:

IRVING, Texas (AP) - sportsminute Terrell Owens has a message for Jessica Simpson: Stay away. The 27- year-old singer-actress has become Public Enemy No. 1 among Dallas Cowboys fans because of a link being made between her appearance at Sunday's game and the poor performance of her new boyfriend, quarterback Tony Romo.

Could there possibly be another explanation?

The Cowboys lost 10-6 to the Philadelphia Eagles and Romo had what was statistically the worst game of his career, all while Simpson sat in a luxury box wearing a pink No. 9 jersey she proudly showed off for television cameras.
The problem for her is, Romo's previous worst game came last December at home to the Eagles when then-girlfriend Carrie Underwood was in attendance.

Way to go, AP, and Drudge for linking to this.

First Glance at the Mitchell Report

2007-12-14T15:03:00.000-05:00

When you consider how many steroid users in baseball got their stuff from Kirk Radomski alone, it becomes apparent that this is but the tip of the iceberg. It's also quite staggering to see how many people left such and obvious paper trail - gives the impression that players weren't that embarrassed to be steroid users. Or that baseball players are the biggest idiots in the world - Larry Bigbie wrote "supplements" on the subject line of a check. What a moron.

The evidence itself ranges from hearsay to damning.

Clemens stands out in particular because his section is so long. Most damning is that he was particularly close to Brian McNamee, even convincing the Yankees to hire him in 2000. McNamee's story is that he stuck a needle in Clemens' butt multiple times to give him steroids.

The inclusion of checks, priority mail packing slips, etc, shows how much of a paper trail Radomski kept. Do all steroids dealers keep such extensive records? Seemingly, Radomski felt if he had to go down, he'd take everyone else down with him.

Setting up Shop

2007-12-12T22:41:00.000-05:00

If you don't know who I am and you're here, it probably means you found the link on my Jason Schmidt page. Welcome.

Basically, I'm a senior at George Mason University, yet I have an irrational interest in the Dodgers. From what I can tell, it's a combination of playing for a YMCA-league t-ball team called the Dodgers when I was in first grade and video games with Mike Piazza. My parents are both Braves fans, which makes sense because we have cable tv and thus PBS, and I grew up in Richmond, where the Braves AAA team plays.

I tried to polish a couple things up here before getting actual traffic, and the archives should give you something to waste time with. I hope they don't drive you away. The ad box is new, but most of this has looked like this for a while. I'll try to update this at least a couple times a week, although a lot of this is on the basis of when there actually is content to talk about, but that's what the Mitchell Report is for (post coming after this has been the top post for a couple days).

Division of Labor

2007-12-11T15:35:00.000-05:00

Now for those of you who know anything about sports, you know that ESPN is just plain stupid. I'm sorry, but it is. If you tune in to something like Baseball Tonight all you get is fodder for something like Fire Joe Morgan. But there is a puzzle here.

Anyone can have an opinion. But opinions are only relevant in discussing what is not already known to be fact. "The Dodgers did not hit many home runs this year" is not an opinion - they finished 15th in the NL. "The Dodgers had a bad year offensively" is an opinion, but it can be substantiated by the fact that they had a team OPS+ of 93, where 100 is average. "The Dodgers need to give up their best hitters for more pitching" is an opinion, and a very stupid one at that.

But I digress. Here's my old roommate on the subject:

If you read what Schreiber says about ESPN's coverage, it makes them look like a "worldwide leader" in sports, but little else. They lead the fray into a world of unsubstantiated reports, biased reporting by former athletes interviewing former teammates and players who played the same position (see: Irvin, Michael and Johnson, Keyshawn), and unseasoned reporters thrust into a position where they have to awkwardly negotiate their position as a former athlete and their current position as a journalist, which goes beyond ESPN (see: Barber, Tiki).

Apparently ESPN believes it needs not only frequent celebrity guests, but in fact needs celebrity hosts, not uncommon in sports. But ESPN was correct in stating their situation is not unique, but in fact the nature of 24 hour news, and that is the case for their shoddy news coverage, but reporters on Fox News and CNN are reporters, not ex-politicians. The creation of a larger opinion section for the 24 hour news networks seems to be the trend, because that's easier to use as filler.

But here's the problem - there are more useful opinions out there. Dodger Thoughts is a trillion times more useful than Bill Plaschke. Heck, I can even write a Bill Plaschke column (comment 226). Bloggers can also do research, cite facts and stats, and they are fact-checked by readers whom they are not too arrogant to ignore.

The mainstream media has advantages, just not what one would think. The old claim is it's professional, so it can screen writers for quality - a reasonably intelligent reader can screen for quality. More relevantly, the professional status means that reporters are paid to have time to devote to gathering facts, information and interviews. Reporters can ask experts for data and sources of data. Most significantly, reporters are most capable of unearthing new information credibly.

Bloggers pretty much have to cite reporters - often they just link to them and quote, if anything, only the most relevant parts - because not only do they have to satisfy the reporter that they're not plagarizing, but they have to satisfy their audience that they're not making stuff up. Bloggers have to have substatiated opinions - people are more skeptical of what other people have to say. Further, bloggers can use any hard data they see. Therefore, the most efficent division of labor would be for the mainstream media to do all the reporting and fact gathering and then for the bloggers to comment and analyze.

There are vast economic reasons you don't see this, though. If bloggers could summarize news stories just by citing newspapers and linking to them, how would newspapers make money? The best the newspapers would hope for would be increased readership, and they may limit how much of the article could actually be quoted on a blog. It would be a risky move, but a solidly journalistic news organization could prove to be the most linked to paper, and those who just want the whole story would go to that paper. As it is, this is the strength of the news business, and division of labor suggests you are better off specializing in your strength, even if you are better at commentary than bloggers (which these reporters are not).

O'Malley's Revolutionary Greed

2007-12-09T19:58:00.000-05:00

But I'm a libertarian economist, so I think this is a good thing.

O'Malley moved the Dodgers West because he wanted a new stadium. What was wrong with Ebbetts, you might ask. Well, you can't fit anyone in it - it had about the seating capacity of Fenway Park, around 35,000 or so. The extra 21,000 seats in Dodger Stadium meant a lot, particularly for a team with a growing fan base that wanted its fans to actually get to see a game.
Ok, so greed probably isn't the right word with this example, but you can't say O'Malley wasn't the penny-pinching type. The story was the Dodgers didn't have names on the back of the uniforms until the mid 1970s so O'Malley could sell more programs, and he also didn't pay players for goodwill tours to Japan, and a dispute over that got Maury Wills traded. But the point is you can actually get tickets to a Dodger game, unlike a Red Sox game. And O'Malley even financed the park himself. But he moved west because the New York zoning nazi wanted the Dodgers to move to Queens. O'Malley said, hey, we're not the Brooklyn Dodgers anymore anyway, so why not be the Los Angeles Dodgers? Let's expand the league nationwide while we're at it.

But I'm happy he's in the hall of fame. Anyone in New York crying about this now is just plain weird. Especially with the internet - you can follow the team from the East Coast. You know, like I do.

Shut Up Plaschke

2007-12-07T14:36:00.000-05:00

Seriously, the Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to a 2 year deal and Plaschke insists they keep Pierre now as a regular. But he's not joking.

The Jones signing was smart and efficient and will help folks -- including owner Frank McCourt -- forgive the terribly large contract and burden that Colletti placed last winter on Juan Pierre.

One mistake down, one to go.

Wait, what the hell? Did Plaschke just surprise me? I'm speechless! This actually would suggest the Juan Pierre signing was a complete and utter failure, and that Colletti has fixed a horrible mistake.

But that doesn't explain the rest of the article:

Now it's time to repent for the giant error that was Jason Schmidt.

Ha! I get it; Schmidt used to play for the Giants! That's so clever! So what should we do?

Colletti needs to use the outfield surplus created by the signing of Jones and do everything within his power to acquire a No. 1 starting pitcher.

Um, that means trading the good outfielders, who are about as good offensively as Jones.

When asked about his team's needs, has Joe Torre mentioned anything but pitching?

Joe Torre doesn't know who's on the goddamn roster. Hell, he probably has to ask what team he's managing every so often. Further, the Dodgers had a team ERA+ of 109 last year, which was a bit above average, and they had 3 good starters in Lowe, Penny and Billingsley. Penny with his sub-3 ERA* had a lot of people impressed, but then again, so did Jake Peavy. But Penny did finish 3rd in CY Young voting, if you think that matters. And Billingsley was superb, and he wasn't even in the rotation the whole year. Joe Torre said that because the Yankees always had problems with shitty pitching the last few years - they paid $10 million a year for Carl Pavano! Their bullpen had 2 good pitchers, and they traded one of them for Wilson Betemit. What Joe Torre doesnt' realize is that he now has a team with problems on offense, namely Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra, and last year, Rafael Furcal.

The Dodgers' field personnel love Baltimore's Erik Bedard, an aggressive hard thrower who was third in the American League in strikeouts and fourth in earned-run average.

He is a left-handed version of John Lackey, only five months younger.

No, because he's far more injury prone, and his walk rates were far too high until about the last year and a half to fully qualify him as an "ace."

Also still available is the pitcher everybody loves, Minnesota's Johan Santana, and the Dodgers could still apparently sneak in and acquire him.

The Twins got Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser for NATHAN PIERZYNSKI! HE ISN'T EVEN A GOOD BASEBALL PLAYER. FOR SANTANA, IT WOULD TAKE LIKE MARTIN, KEMP, BILLINGSLEY AND BROXTON!

Either pitcher would cost them Matt Kemp.

And like 9 other players too!

But either would put them in the playoffs. And, as Jose Lima would tell you, who knows what could happen then?

Yeah, you could be on a losing team because you traded away all your good players. And it would really suck if you failed - ask the Texas Rangers if trading for Carlos Lee was worth it. And there's more.

You say he won't be any better than the combination of Kemp and Andre Ethier? I say, in a post-steroid-era season in 2006, he hit 41 homers with 129 RBIs, so get real.

Ok. Let me humor you. I'll even compare 2006 for Jones to 2007 for Ethier and Kemp rather than 2007 for Jones. I'll even consider that RBIs matter. Kemp and Ethier combined for 23 HR and 106 RBI last year. If you pro-rated that for full seasons, though, say 550 AB each, and you combine for 35 HR and 158 RBI. Regardless of your HR to RBI conversion ratio, I'd say that's pretty good. But seriously, why do you have to compare Jones to a combination of these two, or even one of these two? Why not just put Ethier in left, Jones in Center, and Kemp in right? But Plaschke says this of Jones:

His position lets Juan Pierre become Juan Pierre

Someone who isn't good enough to be a starting centerfielder? Seriously, what is Plaschke saying here? How does getting displaced from his position put Juan Pierre in a position to succeed?

No, no, the Dodgers will not and should not trade the short-armed center fielder. Just because he was overpaid doesn't mean he lacked value. Did everybody somehow miss that he was second in the league in stolen bases and led the league in sacrifice bunts?

He had value as a bench player, but because he was overpaid meant that he was going to be used as a starter. Every day. By Ned's orders. And stolen bases are awesome for fantasy baseball, but in real baseball they don't matter as much, especially when you get caught. Pierre did steal successfully over 80% of the time, so on the whole his speed was a bit of an asset. But sacrifice bunts are what pitchers do on offense. Come on, that's nothing to be proud of - he got out on purpose more than anyone. What actually happened is that his speed has gotten worse and that's why he's no good for center anymore, and that's why his bunt hits percentage was down.

The Dodgers need to keep Pierre's speed and bunting ability at the top of the order. Goodness, it's one of the reasons Jones agreed to play here. But at least now, Pierre can move to a safer left field and be viewed for what he is -- a complementary player.

Yes, and he can complement the team very well as a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. But if Ethier and Kemp are better ballplayers, they should play ahead of him. End of story.

* - Penny actually had an ERA of 3.03 to end the year, but his ERA was under 3 for the better part of the season.

Yay

2007-11-27T12:08:00.000-05:00

The Dodgers might not do anything stupid.

"There's potential for change, but as we look at the young players that we played a lot this past year, we're less likely to fill in [positions with veterans] as much as we have in the past and more likely we'll give the younger players a greater opportunity," Colletti said. "I'm curious to see how our young players, who really had a chance this past year to play full time, I'm curious to see what another year does."

Fan Bases and Winning Games

2007-11-21T01:25:00.001-05:00

Seem like they're one and the same, right? If you win, people will come, right? Well yeah, but that's not the biggest reason.

Looking at the NL for the last 4 seasons, the biggest determinant of attendance was team payroll - if a team spent a certain amount of money, so many fans would come. Now, of course, this may actually be a faulty cause and effect; it might be that teams know their market and get what their attendance will afford. But still, take a look at this:

Regression Analysis: Att versus W, Pay
The regression equation is
Att = 199189 + 10498 W + 0.0222 Pay

Predictor - P
Constant - 0.608
W - 0.050
Pay - 0.000

S = 374825 R-Sq = 70.5% R-Sq(adj) = 69.5%

That is a very tidy regression. That is also a very low P-value for pay, indicating that we are very very sure that payroll affects attendance. Wins would appear to have some impact as well on atendance, but not entirely.

But this is more telling:

Regression Analysis: W versus Pay, RD
The regression equation is
W = 81.2 - 0.000000 Pay + 0.0969 RD

Predictor - P
Constant - 0.000
Pay - 0.975
RD - 0.000

S = 4.02786 R-Sq = 84.0% R-Sq(adj) = 83.5%

Taking into account the effect of payroll on run differential, there is some effect, so you are going to run into some multicollinearity, but still, the R-squared value is 20.7%.

It's really hard to define a model that actually tells you what you want to know, but my intuition seems to support the following: payroll is for putting fans in the seats, not winning ballgames. The Yankees have a $200,000,000 payroll, sure, but they're wasting money on guys like Carl Pavano in all that. Having good drafting and scouting helps. Being able to sign free agents is nice, but there are few free agents that are really worth what they might cost.

It is with that in mind that I ask whether one can really be sure if Matt Kemp is better than someone like Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones. He's certainly better than Juan Pierre.

2007 PrOPS

2007-11-15T16:38:00.001-05:00

PrOPS estimates what players' batting lines should be based on batted ball types etc. Available at the Hardball Times, and developed by JC Bradbury.

Players with expected and actual lines:

Russell Martin .283/.367/.455 .293/.374/.469
James Loney .300/.350/.501 .331/.381/.538
Jeff Kent .288/.364/.478 .302/.375/.500
Nomar Garciaparra .286/.330/.403 .283/.328/.371
Rafael Furcal .278/.339/.376 .270/.335/.355
Andre Ethier .281/.350/.436 .284/.350/.452
Juan Pierre .293/.328/.358 .293/.331/.353
Luis Gonzalez .289/.368/.455 .278/.359/.433

Matt Kemp .261/.297/.430 .342/.373/.521
Andy LaRoche .257/.391/.363 .226/.365/.312
Delwyn Young .299/.332/.545 .382/.417/.647
Tony Abreu .267/.308/.366 .271/.309/.404
Chin-Lung Hu .261/.258/.527 .241/.241/.517

Glaring discrepencies:
Matt Kemp
Delywn Young
Andy LaRoche

LaRoche gets credit for his patience and PrOPS figures he should have hit the ball successfully more often given the batted ball types. Delwyn Young looks to be good, but not as much as he showed. Matt Kemp looks like he was the recipient of a ton of lucky singles. A ton. If this is accurate for predicting performance, it might not be a bad idea to trade Kemp with his value high, assuming of course he doesn't improve his patience or power or something like that.

Take A Look at this

2007-11-14T13:11:00.000-05:00

Good Free Agents pre 2008
3b
A-Rod

cf
Andruw Jones
Torii Hunter
Aaron Rowand

dh
Barry Bonds

c
Michael Barrett
Jason Kendall

SP
Matt Clement

Good Free Agents pre 2009

first base
Mark Teixeira - 1B

second base
Orlando Hudson - 2B

outfielders
Pat Burrell - LF
Adam Dunn - LF
Bobby Abreu - RF
Vlad Guerrero - RF

closers
Jason Isringhausen - CL
Brad Lidge - CL
Joe Nathan - CL

starting pitchers
CC Sabathia - LHSP
Johan Santana - LHSP
Oliver Perez - LHSP
Mark Mulder - LHSP
Derek Lowe - RHSP
Greg Maddux - RHSP
Ben Sheets - RHSP

shortstops
Rafael Furcal

Good Free Agents pre 2010
1b
Nick Johnson
Adam LaRoche
Carlos Pena

2b
Placido Polanco
Brian Roberts
Freddy Sanchez

3b
Adrian Beltre
Chipper Jones
Miguel Cabrera

CF
Chone Figgins
Ryan Freel

corner OF
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Carl Crawford
Gary Sheffield
Jayson Werth

DH
Manny Ramirez

Starting Pitchers
Erik Bedard - LHSP
Dontrelle Willis - LHSP
Chris Capuano - LHSP
Brad Penny - RHSP
Jake Peavy - RHSP

Closers
JJ Putz -CL

Good Free Agents pre 2011
First base
Paul Konerko
Justin Morneau
Kevin Youkilis

third base
Wilson Betemit
Eric Chavez

catcher
Joe Mauer
Yadier Molina

Outfield
Eric Byrnes
Brad Hawpe
Alex Rios

Closers
BJ Ryan
Huston Street

shortstop
Derek Jeter

A smart GM would look at all the major league talent he has under control for this period of time, and check to see when would be the oppurtune time to deal and hold onto it. Nice to put out to look at.

Joe

2007-11-05T23:44:00.000-05:00

Joe Torre is now the Dodger manager. Grady Little had enough of the season, so he just quit. Torre will probably not make but so much of a difference, but let's venture a guess.

Managing a pitching staff
Neither was known for trying to kill a starting pitcher. Torre had a reputation for picking favorite relievers, but Grady was picking that up with Broxton. To be fair, the Dodgers have a much deeper bullpen with Saito, Broxton, Proctor and Beimel all as capable relievers. Brazoban too, if he's ever healthy again. (If they give up on Yhency, though, a run at Gagne would be nice).

Managing a lineup
Tends to give players set roles, but this isn't bad. He liked Jeter in the 2 spot, which actually was wonderful - maybe he puts Martin there. Also not afraid to demote guys like Giambi, Damon, etc, although some utility players get a lot more credit than one might think. Making Abreu the utility man wouldn't be bad, though.

Handling the media
Torre is good for keeping people calm, although nobody in the LA media is like the NY media. Maybe Simers. On the other hand, Little wasn't too bad at this, and he was more interesting at times, often funny, and Torre may be more boring.

Clubhouse stuff
Apparently Torre has a bit more control, maybe because he's not such a joker.

Marginal at best, but probably not a bad move.

Year in Review, Hitters

2007-10-25T19:58:00.000-04:00

Catcher
Russell Martin - 540 AB, .293/.374/.469, 19 HR, 21 SB-9 CS, 113 OPS+, .285 EqA, 8.0 Warp1
Mike Lieberthal - 77 AB, .234/.280/.260, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 39 OPS+, .181 EqA, -0.1 Warp1
Chad Moeller - 8 AB, .125/.222/.125, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, -8 OPS+, 0 Warp1

Martin is clearly awesome. Lieberthal is not worth paying a million dollars; might as well get the replacement level performance out of Moeller.

First Base
James Loney - 344 AB, .331/.381/.538, 15 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 131 OPS+, .302 EqA, 3.0 Warp1
Nomar Garciaparra - 431 AB, .283/.328/.371, 7 HR, 3-1 SB-CS, 78 OPS+, .242 EqA, 0.4 Warp1
Olmedo Saenz - 110 AB, .191/.295/.345, 4 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 63 OPS+, .227 EqA, -.2 Warp1
Mark Sweeney - 33 AB, .273/.294/.303, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 53 OPS+, .201 EqA, -.1 Warp1
Marlon Anderson - 26 AB, .231/.310/.231, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 41 OPS+, .202 EqA, -.1 Warp1

Loney will be the full time first baseman, which will be a good thing. Olmedo and Sweeney should both be gone, and Nomar will have to prove his worth to get any playing time on the field. Or at least, he should. And Marlon Anderson's run must end, but it was nice knowing him.

Second Base
Jeff Kent - 494 AB, .302/.375/.500, 20 HR, 1-3 SB-CS, 121 OPS+, .291 EqA, 5.3 Warp1
Tony Abreu - 166 AB, .271/.309/.404, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 80 OPS+, .242 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Ramon Martinez - 129 AB, .194/.248/.225, 1 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 22 OPS+, .168 EqA, -0.5 Warp1
Wilson Valdez - 74 AB, .216/.263/.270, 0 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 36 OPS+, .182 EqA, 0.2 Warp1

Tony Abreu should be a backup 2b or late inning replacement for Kent. Even if he's only getting about 200 AB, he'd be a much more useful pinch hitter and part time player than Martinez or Valdez. Jeff Kent looks like he'll still be the best option at 2nd, provided he's not traded or retired, although his age is starting to catch up with him.

Third Base
Wilson Betemit - 156 AB, .231/.359/.474, 10 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 110 OPS+, .282 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Andy La Roche - 93 AB, .223/.365/.312, 1 HR, 2-1 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 0.6 Warp1
Shea Hillenbrand - 70 AB, .243/.257/.343, 1 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 51 OPS+, .199 EqA, 0.0 Warp1

WHY!!! WHY DID THEY HAVE TO TRADE BETEMIT?! And this is why LA is in the hunt for A-Rod. LaRoche, who's been having a hard time translating his power to the majors has shown great patience, but it is doubtful management will do the same with him. He's a better option now than Nomar, though. But Hillenbrand's presence on this list is the worst effect of the Betemit trade.

Shortstop
Raffy Furcal - 581 AB, .270/.333/.355, 6 HR, 25-6 SB-CS, 76 OPS+, .244 EqA, 5.0 Warp1
Chin-Lung Hu - 29 HR, .241/.241/.517, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 86 OPS+, .244 EqA, 0.3 Warp1

Even with his down year at the bat, Furcal is among the best defensive shortstops in the game. Hu looks quite promising though, which makes renewing Furcal unlikely.

Left Field
Luis Gonzalez - 464 AB, .278/.359/.433, 15 HR, 6-2 SB-CS, 101 OPS+, .271 EqA, 3.3 Warp1
Brady Clark - 58 AB, .224/.308/.293, 0 HR, 1-2 SB-CS, 55 OPS+, .206 EqA, -0.3 Warp1
Delwyn Young - 34 AB, .382/.417/.647, 2 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 166 OPS+, .342 EqA, 0.5 Warp1

Young was a pleasant surprise in this category. Gonzo did his job, but now it's time for him to go. Brady Clark, we hardly knew ye, and then we saw you in that last game against Colorado and knew we made the right choice.

Center Field
Juan Pierre - 668 AB, .293/.331/.353, 0 HR, 64-15 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 2.6 Warp1

Oh, Juan. Well, he seemed to pick up his game offensively and defensively toward the end. He's got such a long history though of being just a 2nd half player. If he could string together a .308/.356/.373 line (his 2007 2nd half), I could live with that. What gets me is that he has occasional bits of doing what he should, where he fouls off a ton of pitches to force a walk. Then he led the NL in sac bunts - completely unnecessary, and much of that a result of attempted bunting for base hits that failed. I'm pretty sure he'll decline more - this was his first year without at least 1 homer, and only one of his 10 career home runs was inside the park.

Right Field
Andre Ethier - 447 AB, .284/.350/.452, 13 HR, 0-4 SB-CS, 103 OPS+, .270 EqA, 4.4 Warp1
Matt Kemp - 292 AB, .342/.373/.521, 10 HR, 10-5 SB-CS, 125 OPS+, .294 EqA, 2.8 Warp1

Good and good. Give each 550 AB, and they will be productive. As a matter of fact, if you ignore Ethier's April, he hit .291/.366/.451, and either way compares favorably to JD Drew. Kemp could do some serious damage if given more playing time, although he still needs to develop his patience further. Ideally, next year will feature Kemp and Ethier both in the outfield.

40 Man Roster Analysis

2007-10-11T12:24:00.000-04:00

Players that should stay with the big club, definitely
Russell Martin
Brad Penny
James Loney
Matt Kemp
Takashi Saito
Jonathan Broxton
Chad Billingsley

That's a catcher, first baseman, right/center fielder, two starting pitchers, a closer and a setup man.

Players that I would like to leave via Free Agency
Mark Hendrickson
Roberto Hernandez
David Wells
Randy Wolf
Mike Lieberthal
Shea Hillenbrand
Ramon Martinez
Olmedo Saenz
Mark Sweeney
Luis Gonzalez

Hendrickson's non-tender would be the hardest. The rest of these guys will probably leave as free agents or retire, so not a problem.

Players I really want to trade
Juan Pierre
Jeff Kent

Provided Kent doesn't retire, he could be a useful DH to some team. Provided Boston doesn't pick up A-Rod, they could theoretically let Lowell go, move Youkilis to third and play Kent at first. The difficulty of trading Juan Pierre is that he would have to be traded for someone else who is a real salary burden, sort of a Jeff Suppan type, but more ridiculous. This would be someone who would give Dusty Baker a managerial job for it to happen. Otherwise, Pierre may just have to be admitted a failure by LA and displaced, benched and ultimately released. Trading him to SF would be more disrespectful than releasing him probably.

Players we are stuck with
Esteban Loaiza
Nomar Garciapara

Provided we trade Kent, Nomar could probably play better defense at 2b, and he should be able to bounce back to at least an .800 OPS. A 2B with an .800 OPS is alright by me. Loaiza will probably be Tomko'ed. What was Billy Beane thinking?

Players that would be a good idea to think about trading
Rafael Furcal
Derek Lowe
Hong-Chi Kuo
Eric Stults

Kuo is a good pitcher, but he's such an injury risk. He could be valuable for teams that like the Mark Prior types. Did I mention he's a lefty?

Derek Lowe is in the last year of his contract and looks like he wants out. That said,
he's an incredibly valuable starting pitcher, and he could be huge for getting some sort of significant player in a trade, or helping us dump Juan Pierre and not pay his salary. That may become a concern if we pay A-Rod $35,000,000 per year.

Eric Stults is a potentially useful fourth or fifth starter, and he's . . . left-handed. But without Kuo's injury history.

Furcal had a bad offensive year which he's certain to rebound from, and even then, he was 2nd in baseball in RF only to Tulo, and the Dodgers have a much higher K/9 than the Rockies. This means Furcal is an awesome defensive SS who can hit the ball too if he's healthy. If the BoSox want to take a chance on his being healthy, more power to them.

Players that could easily be Dodgers next year but could be traded
Andre Ethier
Andy LaRoche
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu
Joe Beimel
Eric Hull
John Meloan
Scott Proctor
Jason Repko
Delwyn Young

Of this group, I'll say LaRoche's injury makes me really hate the Betemit trade. Abreu and Hu should be bench players to stick around for when Nomar and LaRoche get hurt. Then A-Rod plays third and you have a good youthful combo up the middle that can hit a little. Ethier and Beimel are both good and likely to stick around, Young and Repko look like outfield bench players, though Young or Repko should start taking some PT from Pierre.

Players that could spend all next year on the DL
Jason Schmidt
Yhency Brazoban

Brazoban is $55 million away from being Darren Dreifort, while Schmidt is only $8 million away.

Players that might be let go but are useful
Chun-Hui Tsao
Rudy Seanez

Seanez is an old dude and who knows what he does. Tsao was useful but injury prone, and management might consider him fungible, which would be unfortunate.

Players likely to start in the Minors
DJ Houlton
Mike Megrew
Greg Miller

Control problems and familiarity issues, or whatever.

A-Rod

2007-09-30T22:05:00.001-04:00

Can be ours without losing the first round draft pick. Nice.

What went wrong

2007-09-23T17:26:00.000-04:00

MSNBC, the TV network that brought you Don Imus, has more dumbasses to spew out garbage. Here is Michael Ventre:

The Dodgers have been out of the NL wild card race for some time now, even though they have yet to make it official. It’s like knowing that somebody is quitting a job soon, because they’ve been packing up their belongings, taking three-hour lunches and generally slacking off. All that’s missing is the memo.

As a matter of fact, they were in the race until their rotation collapsed after Randy Wolf joined the esteemed group of veterans on the Disabled List, they traded a useful young power hitter for a 30 year old middle reliever and were then forced to rely on Shea Hillenbrand as an everyday third baseman, a position at which no other team in baseball would even think of playing him because of his demonstrated inability.

This “geezer-punk” assemblage has lost five in a row at a time when the San Diego Padres, making a run at the division title, have won seven straight. The Dodgers just suffered their first-ever four-game sweep by the Rockets at Coors Field. So naturally, the already cranky tricenarians and quadragenarians who creak around the clubhouse in search of their lost youth are becoming more cantankerous by the minute.

They lost like 12 in a row last year. Streaks happen in baseball over a 162 game season, especially when you have to rely on Esteban Loaiza and David Wells in your rotation. Besides, doesn't this just suggest that the veterans are assholes?

Most of the responsibility for winning has been entrusted to kids who haven’t yet learned how to win. In the context of a competitive division that includes the likes of the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies, that’s almost like conceding defeat in spring training.

This is among the goddamn stupidest things I've read. For two reasons:
1) The Dodgers' minor league system is very good. As a matter of fact, the Dodgers won the AA championship in 2005 with many of these players.
2) "Knowing how to win" is a worthless empty bullshit phrase used by reporters who don't know a goddamned thing about baseball. It's easy to know how to win: you score more runs than the other team! End of story!
3) The Diamondbacks have been winning with a bunch of young kids, quite successfully. Randy Johnson started 10 games for them. And even then, they have given up more runs than they've scored, and they should really have a losing record.

These players know how to play baseball. They would not have been drafted if they didn't. You are a worthless human being.

The Dodgers received some early love from pundits as division winners on the basis of their starters. But they’ve been spotty, the bullpen has faltered, and the sticks have been wildly erratic. It isn’t one statistical category that has caused the team’s downfall, but rather those “things you don’t see in the box scores,” especially team chemistry. More often than not, these have been dead men walking.

Nice. Claim that whatever is going on cannot be measured, therefore bringing you into the realm of the irrational where you cannot be disproven.

Now call me a stupid kid, because I'm a senior in college on scholarship double majoring in Math and Economics, but there are statistical reasons for the Dodgers' problems:

Slugging percentage: .404 (14th of 16 in the NL)
Caught Stealing: 47 (most in NL!)
HR: 121 (15th of 16 in the NL)
Walks: 492 (12th of 16 in the NL)

Last year, as a team, the Dodgers were 3rd in the NL in walks, ending the year with 601. The odds of the Dodgers racking up 109 walks in 7 games are, well, 0. But even with the same power problems and virtually the same team batting average, they at least slugged .432 as a team. Let's look at some other problems

Rafael Furcal 2006: .300/.369/.445 (good numbers)
Rafael Furcal 2007: .270/.333/.355 (bad numbers!)

Nomar 2006: .303/.367/.505 (good 3-hitter numbers)
Nomar 2007: .284/.329/.372 (bad 8-hitter numbers)

So in addition to $20 million worth of payroll playing worse than the previous year, the Dodgers were dead men not walking. Hahaha. I'm a writer now too!

The recent dustups caused by Lowe and Kent, as well as a recent complaint by Gonzalez that he can “see the handwriting on the wall” and therefore doesn’t expect to be back next season, and some anonymous chatter that manager Grady Little has lost his players, only underlines the reality that tension exists.

Luis Gonzalez was signed to be a stopgap veteran because Matt Kemp was believed by management to need some seasoning in the minors. It was apparent by May that Gonzalez was not necessary on the Dodgers.

The McCourts have gone the cheapie route, and in doing so, they’ve created a team with no real identity and a hazy future.

This is incredibly stupid. The Dodgers have the 2nd highest payroll in the NL, behind the Mets. Also, the Cleveland Indians have a $61 million payroll, and they just clinched a playoff spot today. As for an identity, how about their all-star catcher Russell Martin? Ever heard of him? Dumbass.

It wouldn’t be so bad if such an approach bore fruit, but it hasn’t. The Angels have worked kids like Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits, Casey Kotchman and Maicer Izturis into their plans, but they’ve managed to amass a giant lead over second-place Seattle in the AL West. They did that by building a superior pitching staff, and by making sure that the veterans who are at the heart of the lineup – Orlando Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews, Jr. – are all at or near their primes. The Dodgers, conversely, populate their roster with fantasy league scraps.

This is also hilarious. The Angels pitching success has been due to young pitchers through their farm system. Bartolo Colon had one good year in Anaheim. Further, Anaheim took some time to be successful - they've basically been rebuilding since 2004, after they followed their WS title with a losing season. Orlando Cabrera is an average hitter, as is Matthews. You can see some numbers here, like the ages of players on their pitching staff, many of whom came up through their farm system.

And again, it takes time for a farm system to develop. The Dodgers did not have a good system or good drafts until 2002 turned things around. It wasn't until last year that those players came up into the majors, because White drafts high school and junior college players. Further, these players have several years before reaching their physical peak, so there is that to consider as well.

The coming weeks will tell a lot about the direction of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now they’re going down. That’s clear. But will Kent stick around next year (he has that option)? If he does, will the Dodgers get him some experienced help so he can realistically go after that elusive World Series ring? Or will it be more of “Daddy Day Care”?

Jeff Kent is not anyone the Dodgers desperately need. He is far more of a drain on the Dodgers defensively than Nomar was in Boston. He makes stupid baserunning mistakes, and can't run that well either. Kent is really best suited to being a 1b/dh right now, and if he wants a title, he should go to the Yankees. The Dodgers' young players are not as good as they will be, but they need to play regularly, and getting players like Kent out of the way will go a long way in helping that.

The New Biggest Free Agent of the offseason

2007-09-22T22:32:00.001-04:00

Barry Bonds will not be coming back to the Giants, and so he will become someone's DH. I'm guessing Yankees, because if A-Rod leaves to get more money elsewhere (please let it be LA), they'll need someone else to hate over there.

Free the Dodgers - Trade Kent

2007-09-22T18:19:00.000-04:00

This means we can trade Jeff Kent.
In the wake of a barely-show-up loss Thursday in Colorado, a fifth consecutive defeat that essentially ended their playoff hopes, quiet Jeff Kent quaked.

Using words like "perplexing" and "curious" and "bitter," he took veiled shots at Manager Grady Little and direct shots at the Dodgers' kids.

"You can use all your fingers on your hand and point around," he told the media in Colorado after the 9-4 loss. "There's many things that have happened that are perplexing. Many things that have happened that are curious."

When asked if those things included Little's daily lineup and decisions, Kent said, "Everything."

This also, apparently, includes the younger players on the team, about whom Kent said, "I don't know why they don't get it."

Jeff Kent is no doubt furious over Matt Kemp's baserunning mistakes. God damn it, Jeff Kent should be making those mistakes! And aggressive mistakes are unacceptable - suddenly spacing out is much better.

This is your veteran leadership. There's a reason Jeff Kent has a reputation as a terrible teammate - he is a terrible teammate.

Kent is watching his chances for a world championship disappear. Gonzalez is mourning his chances at 3,000 hits (he's still 501 short). Garciaparra just wants last season back.

"I'm running out of time," Kent said. "A lot of kids in here, they don't understand that."

You selfish son of a bitch. You're not the most important dude on the team. You're actually washed up, and you're not going to be all that useful much longer. If anything, Grady Little should have shut you down the rest of the year so your option didn't vest. Hopefully, with nobody but Carlos Pena on the free agent market at first base, we can ship you out for something useful. Enjoy being a Yankee, you bastard.

Giving up on 2007 officially

2007-09-19T14:53:00.000-04:00

So, what was your opinion of Kingman's Performance?

I'm raising the white flag. Unofficially, I did it as soon as Colletti revealed his true level of idiocy in signing Juan Pierre. But now, after losing a doubleheader to the goddamned Rockies, I'm giving up.

I was furious when Colletti signed Pierre, because Pierre had Kenny Lofton's defense and less patience at the plate. He steals bases and admittedly he did have a good percentage this year, but still, he's not worth $9 million per year. Not when you have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Delwyn Young, Jason Repko, and Jayson Werth already there. Sure, get Gonzalez, but Pierre?

But getting off a rant, let's consider this: The Dodgers are currently 79-72. With 11 games left, the best they can possibly get to is 90-72. The Padres are leading the Wild Card at 83-67. If San Diego plays .500 ball, which is realistic but slightly optimistic, they can go 89-73. The Dodgers, then, could at worst go 10-1 if they want to have a chance at the postseason. I don't see it happening. As much as I'd love to be wrong, I'm more interested in how late their draft pick will be now - I know it will be before 22.

2007 Free Agent Watch

2007-09-12T14:39:00.000-04:00

First Base
Matt Stairs - could also play corner OF. A serviceable player who has some power, not a bad pickup for someone who needs an Olmedo type guy that might play more often.

This means that trading Nomar or Kent will look really good.

Second Base
Tadahito Iguchi - average 2B hitter, pretty good defensive reputation. Don't know where he ends up.

Third Base
A-Rod - the star of this year's offseason, as he will undoubtedly opt out. A signing that would spell a trade of Andy LaRoche for LA, but I would welcome it. Expect NY to want to keep him, but few others will afford him or even try to. Colletti might sign him to assert himself.

Mike Lowell - Boston will pick him up likely, unless they decide to spend more and grab A-Rod. More likely they stick with him, though, given he's put up a solid 128 OPS+ this year, and they'd rather not commit to A-Rod for a decade.

Shortstop

David Eckstein - St Louis will probably retain the all-star MVP, but it's worth mentioning.

Outfield

Matt Stairs - corner guy, not going to be everyday, probably, but not a bad player.

Sammy Sosa - recovered well from an 82 OPS+ to a 98 OPS+, but is still probably not that useful a player. He'll get people to look at him, though.

Trot Nixon - .346 OBP, .345 SLG. Bench jockey.

Geoff Jenkins - lifetime Brewer, 110ish OPS+ consistently, not a bad player to get. Milwaukee might keep him for that reason, though.

Milton Bradley - injury prone like crazy, and crazy, but a good ballplayer when he plays. Can play CF, but will likely stick to the corners.

Bobby Abreu - doing pretty good, though is walk rate is way down this year, although he still has more than Juan Pierre ever did in a season.

Barry Bonds - stay in SF, or be a DH?

Adam Dunn (T) - Having a good year, will almost certainly have 100 BB and 40 HR, but will Wayne Krivsky say that the strikeouts are a bad thing and let him go?

Mike Cameron - fading, and average hitter with a bit of power. A stopgap type of centerfielder.

Torii Hunter - an answer to a hole in CF. Look for Baltimore and NY to show interest, as the Twins won't try to afford him.

Andruw Jones - Braves will try to afford him and fail. Look for NY, Baltimore, Boston or, what the hell, Anaheim to pick him up.

Aaron Rowand - good runner up prize for those unable to get Hunter or Jones.

Catcher

Michael Barrett (30) - the best FA catcher on the market. Wow.

Jason Kendall (33) - having a terrible horrible no good very bad year. Who wants him?

Paul LoDuca (35) - May stay in NY, but who knows.

Mike Piazza (39) - No clue. Probably going for backup catcher gig, LA might look for him to give Little a reason to rest Russell Martin.

Closer

Eric Gagne - a very poor showing in Boston, though this is due to small sample size and an unusuallly high BABIP (.500! in 10 games!). This may be because his stuff is not as sharp as it once was, but that would only explain a difference from about .280 to .330. Gagne's just been having bad luck in Boston.

Mariano Rivera - His ERA is the highest it's been since he's been a closer, which sounds awful until you hear it's 3.02. But seriously, the Yankees will probably pick him up. I dont' know why I'm bothering with this paragraph.

Todd Jones - Is a middle reliever, but watch some idiot GM pay $5,000,000 for him next year.

Starting Pitcher

Tom Glavine - he's old, but still going. Will probably stick with the Mets, but who knows.

Andy Pettitte - had a good year with the Yankees. May stay, particularly as there will likely be Panic over Mike Mussina's awful year.

Kenny Rogers - he's old, and missed much of this year due to injury. That won't stop some team on picking up this veteran.

Matt Clement - out a year due to surgery, a Randy Wolf type gamble, likely to command a similar price of $8 million for a 1 year deal.

Bartolo Colon - After winning a Cy Young award 2 years ago, he's still fat, but he's been awful and injury prone. This looks like a Texas Rangers move.

Curt Schilling - best free agent pitcher on the market, and he's not coming back to Boston.

We have some veterans to ship out

2007-09-06T12:55:00.000-04:00

And do we ever! Right now, we've got batting champs, MVPs, speedy centerfielders! Come and get 'em! Who are our potential trade partners this offseason?

St. Louis Cardinals
They have Jim Edmonds in Center Field, but have you seen Jim Edmonds lately? He's not an everyday kind of guy - he keeps breaking down, he's not as good a hitter, etc. Not to mention that his WARP-3 for this year was just 2.9, and Pierre's was 3.4! Given that St. Louis is in no position to spend a lot of money on a top centerfielder, especially with a rotation as bad as theirs, maybe a straight-up trade of Pierre for Edmonds would make everyone happy, especially if Edmonds doesn't insist on playing everyday. Even if Grady Little will insist on batting him 4th or 5th.

Houston Astros
Craig Biggio is retiring, so why not stick an aging veteran there for one more year and call it a transition period? Kent would go along with it, for what it's worth, because he could see his family. More importantly, the Astros might give up something for Kent, since he's still a pretty useful player.

For that matter, maybe they'd like Nomar over there. They could use a third baseman, but I don't know if Nomar wants to go to Texas, and it is his choice.

Cincinnatti Reds
Maybe they'd want Nomar at third, but again, he's got a no trade clause. Maybe if he really wants to hang out with Ken Griffey Jr and Bronson Arroyo, but I don't know how likely that is.

Atlanta Braves
They just might need a centerfielder when they can't afford Andruw Jones, and maybe they'd want a guy who can play everyday. Even when he shouldn't.

New York Mets
They could play Ruben Gotay at 2nd, or have Jeff Kent! They could also use Kent to spell Delgado, who is clearly not aging gracefully.

Philadelphia Phillies
I put this here because they thought trading Bobby Abreu made them a better team.

Washington Nationals
They locked up their infield, but maybe they'd want Pierre, or someone else who would be real high-profile to add to an opening day roster in a new ballpark. We'd take Ryan Church.

Orioles
Maybe they'd want Pierre, who would sadly be a big improvement over Corey Patterson. I wouldn't count on it, but you never know. They might go for Kent or Nomar at first base, too.

White Sox
They could try a young guy in center, or get an extra Scott Podsednik and get Juan Pierre. I hate to do that to Juan, although Ozzie would really like him.

Minnesota Twins
We know Torri Hunter isn't going to stay there. We also know that in addition to a center fielder, they could use a DH or a third baseman (Nick Punto?!), so why not offer Kent, Pierre, Nomar and cash for someone. This has the makings of a real blockbuster deal. If they're really crazy, Santana.

Regulars

2007-09-03T20:18:00.000-04:00

September has come, and the Dodgers should really consider themselves out of the playoff race, but they won't. Whatever, but let's see. Here are the 6 guys who made up the offense the most ranked by their WARP3:

Russell Martin
raw: .298/.378/.474, 119 OPS+, 21 SB, 7 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 8.38 (1st of 17)
RATE2: 110
Warp3: 9.7

Rafael Furcal
Raw: .279/.346/.367, 85 OPS+, 16 SB, 6 CS, 5 HR
EQA: .252
RF: 5.00 (2nd of 25 qualifiers)
RATE2: 118
Warp3: 8.0

Jeff Kent
raw: .295/.371/.498, 122 OPS+, 1 SB, 2 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 4.67 (19 of 22)
Rate2: 93
Warp3: 6.2

Andre Ethier
raw: .288/.354/.450, 107 OPS+, 0 SB, 4 CS, 10 HR
EQA: .272
RF: 2.12 (10 of 20)
Rate2: 121/106 LF/RF
Warp3: 5.7

Luis Gonzalez
raw: .276/.355/.425, 101 OPS+, 6 SB, 2 CS, 12 HR
EQA: .270
RF: 1.73 (16 of 19)
Rate2: 98
Warp3: 4.2

Juan Pierre
raw: .291/.323/.348, 74 OPS+, 53 SB, 11 CS, 0 HR
EQA: .247
RF: 2.30 (15th of 16 qualifiers)
Rate2: 91
Warp3: 3.3

Some thoughts
1) Next year, Kemp should get the regular gig in right field and Gonzalez should be gone. This puts Ethier in Left Field, where his advantage over Gonzalez will drastically improve the overall outfield defense.

2) Juan Pierre needs to end his streak.

3) Furcal is too good defensively given his bat this year. Granted the ankle injury took his power off, but to only have 5 HR now when he had 15 on the year last year hurts.

4) Kent's defense gets worse all the time, but he's still the best overall hitter on the team among regulars, at least until Matt Kemp is a regular.

5) Ethier should not steal bases. He might be better suited as a 5 or 6 hitter for that reason.

Yeah

2007-07-23T00:33:00.001-04:00

So I've been lazy about blogging . . .

Current Dodger team by WARP3

2007-06-19T14:31:00.000-04:00

Rotation
Penny - 8.9
Lowe - 8.4
Wolf - 5.9
Billinsgley - 3.3
Kuo - 1.5

Bullpen
Saito - 6.2
Broxton - 2.9
Seanez - 2.9
Beimel - 2.1
Hendrickson - 1.8
Tomko - 1.1

Starting Lineup
Martin - 7.1
Furcal - 5.3
Gonzalez - 4.3
Kent - 3.1
Ethier - 3.4
Pierre - 2.3
Betemit - 2.1
Nomar - .4

Bench
Abreu - 1.4
Kemp - 1.1
Saenz - 0.8
Loney - 0.3
Lieberthal - 0.3
Anderson - -0.1

Hey, How about a Dodger Post!

2007-06-18T23:09:00.000-04:00

Well here we go. The Dodgers have had some ups and downs, but have also made some roster changes. Here's the current roster:

DL:
Ramon Martinez
Jason Schmidt
Jason Repko

Position Players
Martin - C
Lieberthal - C
Nomar - 1B
Loney - 1B
Saenz - 1B/PH
Abreu - 2B/3B/SS
Kent - 2B
Furcal - SS
Betemit - 3B
Gonzalez - LF
Pierre - CF
Ethier - RF
Kemp - RF/CF
Anderson - OF

Pitchers
Lowe - SP
Penny - SP
Wolf - SP
Kuo - SP
Billingsley - SP(?)
Saito - CL
Broxton - 8
Beimel - LRP
Hendy - LRP
Tomko - RP
Seanez - RP

Seanez is actually a legitimate choice for a 7th inning guy. I'd like to see them get rid of Tomko when Tsao is ready to return, although I'd rather him be really ready than not ready like Schmidt.

If you were to do the rotation by quality, right now it would be
Penny
Lowe
Kuo
Billz
Wolf

And Kuo is a few more excellent starts away from staff ace territory. Really, that guy can pitch, and he's got great stuff. He's a worthy adversary for Roy Halladay on Wednesday. Billingsley, if he continues on the pace of his reliever numbers, could be an excellent starter too. Wolf has been slumping a bit lately, but picked it up a little in his last start. His latest difficulty is pitching deep into games, but he's still been better than expected this year.

My New Favorite Quote

2007-06-13T18:17:00.001-04:00

"That's ridiculous. But that's the small-mindedness of Major League Baseball. They don't know what the hell they're doing. And if I get in, everybody will know that they don't know what the hell they're doing."

This is former Dodger pitcher and now independent instructor, Mike Marshall. Article here.

Jayson Stark's "Reasoning"

2007-06-06T16:32:00.000-04:00

There are two possibilities for what Stark did in his columns (and probably his book):

1) Ask a bunch of scouts who they think is overrated or underrated

2) Dream up something off the top of his head and stick to his guns

In essence, this was a combination of (1) and (2). We can tell this by Stark's use of arbitrary statistics, such as counting statistics up to a certain age, career statistics for two players of the same age who entered the league at completely different stages of their development, pitcher wins, and batting average. Sometimes, he'll use some genuinely useful statistics, but that's only when they tend to support his view. Comparing the major league career statistics of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, though, is quite dishonest.

Another of the systematic flaws in Stark's reasoning is the failure to understand aging in baseball. The old standard age for peaking in performance was 27 at one point, but this has gotten closer to 30 or so, thanks largely to more sensible training methods, longer pitching rotations, etc. Further, different clubs will have different reasons for playing players in the majors before a certain age; Santana didn't enter the Twins' rotation full-time until he was 25 while Sabathia jumped right in at 20. The rate statistics, namely strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate statistics are important to consider here, but they must be observed in the proper context. Stark, though, compares ERA and BA of players that are of different ages and started at different points in their careers in different situations.

Perhaps the most striking failure is to have an objective reference point for which players are good and which are not. The criteria for what makes each player particularly good appears to be all in Stark's mind. The same is the case for determining which players are overrated and underrated.

***

The problem for Stark is not that he is using subjective analysis - it is very difficult if not impossible to make a truly objective determination of who is over and under rated - but he is certainly far too biased in his procedure. The evidence he uses is shaky in far too many examples. What is most egregious, though, is that he lacks any sort of consistency, other than trusting the opinions of scouts and bending the evidence around his own preconceived notions.

Me vs Stark, part 3

2007-06-06T14:31:00.000-04:00

Jayson Stark on Underrated Players

What could be worse than the overrated list? Probably the underrated list. Let’s see what we have here.

No. 1 -- Roy Oswalt

Could somebody please explain why this guy isn't considered the National League's Johan Santana?

Let’s look here:

Oswalt career ERA+: 141
Santana career ERA+: 143

Pretty good comparison, there, but here’s where we see a difference.

Santana: 9.54 K/9, .220 Opp. BA,
Oswalt’s career: 7.49 K/9, .253 Opp BA

Santana is a much more consistent strikeout pitcher than Oswalt, which means that people hit the ball much less against him. It’s also worth noting that Oswalt is 2 years older than Santana.

Oswalt is a two-time 20-game winner. He leads all active right-handers not named Pedro Martinez in winning percentage (104-50, .675). And he's the only active pitcher who can say he has never -- never -- had a season in which his winning percentage was worse than .625 or his ERA was higher than 3.50. Yet not only has he never won a Cy Young Award -- he's finished in the top three only once. Ridiculous, isn't it?

Wins don’t mean anything. Steve Traschel won 15 games last year and sucked, and Randy Johnson won more games last year with an ERA of 5 than in 2004 with an ERA of 2.60, because run support gives pitchers wins. The run support happened to be unevenly distributed in such a way that Roy Oswalt was in line for a win more than Clemens. You’ll notice that Clemens had more no-decisions than Oswalt, and also that Oswalt had more losses than Clemens – basically everytime he didn’t have an excellent start.

A couple of years ago, I asked his catcher, Brad Ausmus, how many people -- if I polled 10,000 Americans -- would have any idea Roy Oswalt was (at the time) coming off back-to-back 20-win seasons.
"That would depend," Ausmus chuckled, "on whether anyone on our team was among the 10,000 Americans."
OK, I retorted, suppose nobody on the Astros was among the 10,000 Americans?
"Oh," Ausmus said. "Then none."

What the hell does this prove? First of all, Oswalt was hardly a low-profile unrecognized pitcher. He was in the World Series in 2005, and if people don’t recognize him from that, it’s probably because FOX is so bad at broadcasting baseball that people would rather not watch the World Series. But the point is that Oswalt was recognized as the NLCS MVP, and he was also an All-Star in 2005 and 2006. I don’t think he can legitimately claim anonymity. But really, you don’t determine popularity by asking someone whether they think someone is popular, unless you’re a retard.

Your honor, and members of the all-underrated jury, we rest our case.

Case dismissed based on poor evidence. I would have said something about leading the NL in ERA and K/BB in 2006, or how he’s pitched over 220 innings each of the last 3 seasons, or how he threw 8 shutouts in 2005, or something that is a useful statistic.

No. 2 -- Trevor Hoffman

It's always fascinating how one month -- October -- can twist the perceptions of
players in every conceivable direction. So we're going to toss all postseason
stats into the dumpster and compare only the regular-season careers of two great
closers.

Good idea.

Closer A and Closer B have both had long, distinguished careers. Closer B is
considered a cinch Hall of Famer. Closer A still has folks debating whether he's
Cooperstown-worthy or not.

Wait, you caught me off guard at first. Didn’t you say we weren’t talking about careers now? Well, I guess you get to just ramble on whatever the hell you want, so we are now.

Yet Closer A has converted 89.5 percent of his lifetime save opportunities, struck out 9.8 hitters per nine innings in his career and held those poor opposing hitters to a .207 batting average and .264 on-base percentage.

So Closer A beats Closer B in every one of these categories. Closer B's figures: 87.9 percent, 8.0 strikeouts per 9 IP, .214 average, .270 on-base. Why, then, would anyone think that Closer A might not have Hall credentials as worthy as Closer B?

Easy question. Because Closer B is Mariano Rivera, the Greatest Postseason Closer Who Ever Lived (34 saves, 0.80 ERA).

Closer A, on the other hand, is Hoffman, who once went eight years between postseason save opportunities through no fault of his own.

All right, you used some somewhat useful statistics. They seem similar enough, though Hoffman has a higher career K/9. The reason people think more of Rivera than Hoffman is far simpler – Mariano looks more legitimate on the radar gun. When you throw a mid-90s cutter that breaks more bats than anything, you’ve got good stuff. Hoffman throws a Greg Maddux fastball and
a 72 mile an hour changeup. He's had some success, with that stuff, but it must also be remembered that he plays in a huger park with worse hitters facing him.

Now obviously, I'd have to be a major goofball to argue Hoffman has a better Hall case than Rivera. But that doesn't mean Hoffman hasn't been criminally underrated. Here's the best way to put their careers in perspective:

Mariano Rivera has a career ERA+ of 195, and Hoffman’s is 149.

They have basically the same number of blown saves in their careers -- 58 for Hoffman, 57 for Rivera -- except Hoffman has had 70 more opportunities.
In other words, Rivera would have to go two seasons without blowing a single save just to say he had the same save-conversion percentage as Trevor Hoffman. So can we please give this man his due already?

Well part of the save percentage thing is because Rivera spent more time as a setup man to John Wetteland. When you’re a setup man, you don’t get saves, you get holds, but if you screw up, you get a blown save.

But if you want to talk about what’s going on right now, Rivera’s in a funk and the Yankees are sucking so much they don’t get to him, but Hoffman looks like his stuff his getting weaker. In the interest of full disclosure, I hate Trevor Hoffman, and everytime I see him pitch I really think he’s going to blow it. He gets by on way too much luck, it seems sometimes.

No. 3 -- Hanley Ramirez

We liked playing that Player A versus Player B game so much, let's try it again.

Yay.

Player A is a National League shortstop. He is averaging a .303 batting average, 129 runs scored, 76 extra-base hits and 52 stolen bases per 162 games in his career. Player B is also an NL shortstop. He's averaging .288, 114 runs, 60 extra-base hits and 61 steals per 162 games.

Steals numbers but no stolen base percentage? At all?

Player A is 23. So is Player B. So which one would you start your team with? If
I didn't tell you the names, I'm betting you'd take Player A, right? But now
let's reverse that. Let's say I had never shown you those numbers. And then I
asked if you'd rather have Ramirez (aka Player A) or Jose Reyes
(Player B). Then what?

Well then I would say shame on you for a poor comparison. You have two 23 year old players. You are comparing one player’s performance starting at age 22 and one starting at age 20. Do you really not see anything wrong with this? To be fair, you should either include Ramirez’s minor league numbers and adjust them down to estimate what he would have been in the majors, or just disregard Reyes from 2003-2005. Then you could compare Reyes and Ramirez in 2006, and see then that Reyes was marginally better (OPS+ of 118 vs 116, SB% of 79% vs 77%).

Admit it. You'd take Reyes. Heck, to be honest, I'd probably take Reyes myself. But does anybody who doesn't own a teal cap know Ramirez's numbers are actually better? Dubious. Which sums up his underratedness just about perfectly.

The people who think Ramirez’s numbers are better are the ones who don’t understand player development, or are intellectually dishonest and want to throw together a list. Besides, why would you want to mark someone as underrated when they’re already a well talked about player – Ramirez won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year! You could talk about how the Red Sox thought Alex Gonzalez would be better than him, maybe, but that might not be so happy for some people.

No. 4 -- Jake Peavy

Is there a more fun pitcher to watch in the entire National League than Peavy?
If there is, he's at least on a list that's shorter than Tim Kurkjian. Well, of
course it is.

I could make a list that’s shorter than Tim, even if he’s a 3 foot midget. But hey, he’s good. Unless, of course, you think hitting home runs is fun to watch, or you like crazy antics. Then Jose Lima, who gave Juan Pierre his first big league homer, is definitely your guy.

Since 2004, if we compare the Padres' strikeout machine to all NL starting pitchers with as many innings pitched as he has, he tops the whole league in strikeouts, strikeout ratio, WHIP and ERA. And if you enjoy swinging and missing, Jake Peavy is your man. The only NL starter who has induced that with greater frequency than Peavy (27.3 percent), according to our friends at Inside Edge, is the Phillies' Cole Hamels (27.9).

Yeah, he’s a good strikeout pitcher. He led the league in strikeouts one year, and he led the league in ERA one year, but still no Cy Young. But his ERA crept over 4 last year, so you could ignore him then.

Yet Peavy is probably only about the 15th-most-talked-about pitcher in his own time zone. And anybody with that kind of greatness-to-pub ratio is a lock to make a list like this.

A bit of hyperbole there, but true enough. And forget his time zone; West Coast Pitchers will easily slip under the East Coast radar.

No. 5 -- C.C. Sabathia

You know what might be the biggest upset of the year? That Sabathia didn't get
one vote in our recent "Which Pitchers Would You Pay to Watch?" poll. Heck, I'd
pay to watch him.

Was it one of those online polls? Was it something where you could check multiple boxes, or did you have to pick just one? If I could pick just one, I’d pick Santana. But seriously, those kinds of polls are pretty useless because they suffer from voluntary response bias. But of course, you already knew that.

He's already the first left-handed pitcher since Andy Pettitte to start his career with six straight seasons of double-digit wins.
He has won more games (88) than any active pitcher under 27. And the Elias Sports Bureau reports he's just the fifth pitcher to debut in the last quarter-century and reach 1,000 strikeouts before turning 27. (The others: Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood.)

Um, that’s nice, but he also started younger too. He was thrown into the rotation in 2001, and never pitched in relief in the majors. Johan Santana was pitching at least some of his games out of the bullpen until he was 24 (the next year he won a Cy Young award). In fact, that’s about the only reason for such numbers with such an arbitrary statistic. Besides, Jake Peavy will do that later this year. Wait till Hammels has been around a while, too. I’d also count on Felix Hernandez doing it.

But the real reason C.C. is on this list -- aside from that snub in the pay-to-watch survey -- is simple: He's only getting better. He's striking out more hitters (9.05 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And he's walking fewer hitters (1.6 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And that's what aces -- especially underrated aces -- are made of.

You forgot to make that point with Peavy. Also, getting better is not what aces are made of so much as it's what players that haven't reached their prime are made of. You also forgot that
Hoffman is over the hill. Further, you're using small sample size data again talking about the current season. Talk about the previous season too, or else you'll use really bad data.

So yes, you are retarded.

No. 6 -- Carl Crawford

Joining the Devil Rays isn't exactly the same thing as joining the witness protection program. But it's close enough in Crawford's case.

Has anybody noticed that this guy has become the first player since Rogers
Hornsby to increase his batting average and home run totals five years in a row?

Has anybody noticed that the only other players since 1900 to match his 2006 numbers in batting average (.305), stolen bases (58) and home runs (18) were Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan? Has anybody noticed he's on pace to become the only player besides Ty Cobb to reach 1,000 hits, 300 steals and 100 triples before he even turns 28?

Yeah, actually, people who pay attention to baseball, particularly fantasy players. People that steal bases are widely pursued in the fantasy game, and he hits for average and even a bit of power too. It also makes sense that a guy who starts in the major leagues really young is going to have higher totals in his counting stats, and that young players will improve until their prime.

Yeah, didn't think so (outside of those 29 general managers who would love
to trade for him). Well, we sure did blow his cover, didn't we?

ESPN - If you're dumber than we are, it's news to you.

No. 7 -- Placido Polanco

Polanco and his double-play partner in Detroit, Carlos Guillen, probably both should have made this team. But if I'd included everybody who deserved to make it, we would've blown a hole in cyberspace.

If by “blown a hole in cyberspace” you mean “pick someone who’s a much better baseball player” you would be correct.

So why Polanco? Because, when I was mulling over this list and brought up Polanco's name, one scout's instant reply was: "He should be your captain."

This is why you drive me insane. You go by scouts’ OPINIONS to determine who is underrated. DON’T YOU SEE HOW STUPID THIS IS?!

Players like Placido Polanco operate so far below the radar screen, you need a submarine to keep track of them. But since he arrived in Detroit on June 10, 2005, and got his chance to play every day, he has struck out less (only 49 times) than any player in baseball who has been to the plate as often as he has. And the only AL players with higher batting averages than his (.317) since then are Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Vladimir Guerrero. Ever heard of them?

Yes, but let’s see what else they do with those batting averages, with the magical EQA stat, and for simplicity’s sake I’ll just pull down 2006 numbers.

Jeter: .343 BA, .308 EqA
Mauer: .347 BA, .314 EqA
Martinez: .316 BA, .293 EQA
Vlad: .329 BA, .306 EqA
Polanco: .295 BA, .234 EqA

This rather clearly shows that Placido Polanco was not nearly as good as the other 4 guys listed there. Just like Juan Pierre isn’t as good as Albert Pujols. Striking out less means little, except that your batting average can rise a little bit because you have more balls in play.

The best way to describe Polanco, though, isn't with any number. It's with that word, "winner." He's one of those "glue" players. He glues your team together with all those little things he does. And the 2006-07 Tigers are a walking testimonial to that. Then again, so is his inclusion on this prestigious list.

The best way to describe that last paragraph, though, isn’t with any assumption of intelligence on the part of the author. It’s with that word “retarded.” It’s one of those “empty” paragraphs. Doing all the little things is nice, but they are just that, little things. Winning is all about scoring more runs than the other guy. The guys who do the big things are the guys that really get you there, anyway. Polanco did help by playing good defense at second base, which is important to a staff of pitchers that pitches to contact, but it's absolute BS that he's underrated, particularly as he's ahead of Brian Roberts in the all-star voting.

No. 8 -- Kevin Youkilis

When a guy has been a star in "Moneyball," and then becomes an everyday player
for the Red Sox, you wouldn't think it would even be possible for him to be a
candidate for an all-underrated anything team. So for Youkilis to make this
squad, it might have to rank as the greatest achievement in his whole career.

I’m not sure how much hype Moneyball is worth, but the Red Sox are a bunch of media whores.

But in case you haven't been paying attention, this fellow has turned into much more than just "The Greek God of Walks." The only AL first baseman outslugging him is Justin Morneau. Nobody beats him in OPS, batting average, runs scored or multihit games. And one AL executive wanted to make sure we noticed what an underrated defender he is -- so now that he mentions it, Youkilis hasn't made an error at first since last July.

His patience at the plate alone is a great asset – he could be quite useful still with just a .260 average or so if his OBP will end up at .360-.370. Nice that he hasn’t made an error, although it’s worth noting that he seems to get to balls pretty well too, thus a Rate2 of over 100. The problem with the other stuff you’re citing is that they’re statistics from May, which are useless. Wait until after you can drop your OPS by .100 in a week.

Nevertheless, he still gets overshadowed by just about every position player around him, and by half the other first basemen in the league. And you'd be amazed how often "overshadowed" translates to "underrated" when you're writing columns like this one.

True enough, but it’s not even the league – it’s his own team. In All-Star balloting, Youkilis is not even on the ballot, because David Ortiz goes in at first base in such situations. He also won’t get the RBI opportunities because he was the leadoff man (now he’s the 2 hitter behind Julio Lugo, who should be a 9 hitter for the Royals).

No. 9 -- Joe Nathan

What Johan Santana is to the front end of Twins games, Nathan is to the back end. Since the day he arrived in Minnesota in 2004, he's been kind of the Mariano Rivera of the Great Lakes. But has anybody caught on to that -- except the hitters?

Everyone who plays fantasy, especially people in a 5x5 Roto league, know that Nathan is really really good.

Nathan has converted 92 percent of his save opportunities (blowing just 11 saves in 143 chances). He has punched out nearly two hitters (301 altogether) for every one who has gotten a hit (155). And his WHIP (.97 baserunners per inning) beats any closer's in his league since then.

True enough. Wow, this guy is a hell of a lot better than Trevor Hoffman, and he doesn't have as many years going back to make himself look better. Maybe he should be moved up and Hoffman dropped.

I was tempted to put his side-wheeling set-up man, Pat Neshek, on this team instead. But Joe Nathan is one of the most unpublicized, unhittable, totally dependable closers on earth. And nobody knows it. But with any luck, they do now.

Yeah, people still think Trevor Hoffman is more overrated, like you, dumbass. Hoffman, who Superdumbass Phil Garner used over Billy Wagner in the allstar game because of his reputation, resulting in the NL losing the game. Gee, lefty who throws 100 or righty that throws 88?

No. 10 -- Travis Hafner

Hafner's Indians compadre, Grady Sizemore, would have been awarded this final roster spot if he hadn't fouled up his underratedness by making the cover of Sports Illustrated. And even Hafner was a borderline call, just because his nickname(Pronk) has gotten so much attention.

Borderline? Getting attention does not make you overrated, it’s how good people perceive you to be. You’re a retard, Jayson Stark.

Yeah, America has heard of him. Yeah, America knows he can thump a little. But most of America still hasn't comprehended how good he is. Heck, I rated him the third-most underrated DH of all time in the book.

Um, ok.

Who owns the best on-base percentage (.420) and OPS (1.019) in the whole American League since 2004? The Pronkster. Who's the only hitter besides Albert Pujols to have a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage and 100 RBIs in each of the last three seasons? The Pronkster.

Yeah, he’s had the highest OPS+ in the AL the last few years running. Turns out he’s really good.

So what am I saying? That this fellow is a masher in the same stratosphere as Pujols, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero and Manny Ramirez. Except they hog all the "SportsCenter" time, while Hafner just monopolizes the All-Nickname Team. And that, ladies and gentlemen, may be the ultimate prescription for underratedness.

Yes, so that’s why he’s freaking 10th on this list? That’s reason to put this guy on the top! The
Dude also has never been named to an All-Star team. EVER!

As of today, suggested all-star ballots

2007-06-05T12:37:00.000-04:00

Now what makes an all-star? It seems that each year, it should reward those who are doing well, although it's really a popularity contest. Nonetheless, let's see what this would look like if it were for those who did well. The fans get to vote, and that impacts which position players start.

All-OBP TEAMS
To the highest OBP at each position:
NL
2 - Russell Martin (.386)
3 - Todd Helton (.460)
4 - Kelly Johnson (.392)
5 - Chipper Jones (.392) - it should be noted that Mark Ellis and Chad Tracy are higher here, but neither have played as much, although it's borderline whether Chipper qualifies
6 - Jose Reyes (.398)
7 - Barry Bonds (.485)
8 - Carlos Beltran (.390)
9 - Brad Hawpe (.411)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.412)
3 - Jim Thome (.470) - although he's not on the ballot due to Konerko. Also deserving the ballot but not on is Kevin Youkilis
4 - Brian Roberts (.421)
5 - Mike Lowell (.391) - would be Iwamura but for injury
6 - Derek Jeter (.399)
7 - Nick Swisher (.425)
8 - Reggie Willits (.419)
9 - Vladimir Guerrero (.460)

The ALL-SB team
no regard to CS
NL
2 - Martin (8)
3 - Jeff Conine and Lance Berkman (3)
4 - Kaz Matsui and Brandon Phillips (9)
5 - David Wright (11)
6 - Jose Reyes (30)
7 - Alfonso Soriano (8)
8 - Juan Pierre (18)
9 - Shane Victorino (16)

AL
2 - Mike Napoli (4)
3 - Gary Sheffield (7)
4 - Brian Roberts (19)
5 - Nick Punto (11)
6 - Julio Lugo (17)
7 - Carl Crawford (12)
8 - Grady Sizemore (17)
9 - Bobby Abreu (8)

The All-HR team
NL
2 - Russell Martin and Michael Barrett (7)
3 - Prince Fielder (20)
4 - Dan Uggla (12)
5 - Aramis Ramirez (13)
6 - JJ Hardy (16)
7 - Adam Dunn (14)
8 - Eric Byrnes (9)
9 - Ken Griffey Jr (12)

AL
2 - Victor Martinez (12)
3 - Justin Morneau (14)
4 - Ian Kinsler (10)
5 - Alex Rodriguez (20)
6 - Jhonny Peralta (11)
7 - Craig Monroe (9)
8 - Torii Hunter (12)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (13)

The All-AVG team
NL
2 - Bengie Molina (.320)
3 - Derrek Lee (.357)
4 - Chase Utley (.304)
5 - Miguel Cabrera (.319)
6 - Edgar Renteria (.335)
7 - Matt Holiday (.345)
8 - Willy Tavares (.327)
9 - Tony Gwynn Jr (.320)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.360)
3 - Kevin Youkilis (.346)
4 - Luis Castillo (.337)
5 - Mike Lowell (.332)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (.329)
7 - Carl Crawford (.295)
8 - Ichiro Suzuki (.333)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (.362)

Me vs Stark on "Overrated"

2007-06-04T02:27:00.000-04:00

Let us begin with Stark’s description, sparsing out a couple paragraphs that are irrelevant:

Overratedness -- like underratedness -- is all relative, remember. It's about perception. It's about illusion. It's about myths. It's about assumptions we tend to make about all kinds of players -- assumptions that sometimes turn out not to match up real well with a condition best described as "reality."

Sounds good so far; in fact, I think I’ll hold on to this part for later.

So the question I kept aspiring to answer as I wrote my book -- and as I wrote this companion column -- was this:

How does the perception of this player match up with the kind of player he really is (or was)?

I think there’s a difference between over/under-rating and completely misperceiving a player. For example, calling Juan Pierre a good leadoff man when he’s usually in the running for the league lead in outs understands the kind of player he is, but gives him too much credit.

Oh. And one more thing we need to get straight before you start typing those "are-you-some-kind-of-knucklehead" e-mails: I'm really not the Ultimate Czar of Overratedness and Underratedness. I'm just the guy who wrote the book.

NO! I thought you ESPN guys knew everything!

Your opinion is as good as mine. Maybe not as exhaustively researched. But you sure have a right to it. So I don't pretend to settle these debates. I just start them. Simply providing a valuable public service by allowing you, the American sports fan, to do what you enjoy most about sports…

I may not have interviewed as many scouts as you have, probably because I don’t have the media credentials you do, but you’re right, this is essentially the starting point of a debate. Not really what analysis is supposed to do, but it’s a good way to pimp your book.

OK, here they come -- the 10 most overrated active players in baseball. Some of these players made it into my book. Some didn't. On the other hand, some guys who were in the book didn't make this list. The difference? The book was mostly about assessing careers. This column is more about where these players stand on the illusion/reality meter right now. Got that? All righty then, here we go:

Does this mean you’re going to make judgements based on small sample sizes? Or are you going to just say that you’re only looking at active major leaguers to see who’s overrated?

Now let’s see what he actually says:

No. 1 -- Barry Zito

As I said in the book, "overpaid" isn't always the same thing as "overrated." But it definitely works in Zito's case.

Please don’t refer to your book. Try to make your article explain itself on its own.

Not that it's some kind of disgrace for any team to say it employs this guy. Never misses a start. Logs those innings. Snaps off those picturesque curveballs. Leads the league in likability. And we admire him for all of those qualities.

Yes he does. Zito is a good pitcher with cool looking stuff. And the fact of the matter is that pitchers that give you 220 innings are really quite valuable, because that means fewer oppurtunities to take advantage of the bad part of your bullpen. Starters that go deep into games are important to have.

But should he really be the proud owner of the most humongous pitching contract in history (seven years, $126 million)? For all those who think that answer is yes, better peruse these facts first:

Zito for $126 Million is not nearly as bad as Kevin Brown for $105 million. Zito will be 34 at the end of his deal, while Brown was 34 when he signed his deal. But as we all know, the market sets the prices for the players, and the degree to which a GM is desperate enough to possibly overpay someone will affect where he goes. That's not to say Zito isn't overpaid, but his durability does make his contract more bearable. Zambrano will get more money next year anyway.

Since his Cy Young season in 2002 (23-5, 2.75 ERA), Zito has a higher ERA than Carl Pavano, a lower strikeout rate than Mark Redman and a lousier WHIP than Odalis Perez. And his current 32-30 strikeout-walk ratio (143rd among the 155 starting pitchers with at least 20 innings this year) tells you he now does more nibbling than chef Paul Prudhomme. So why is this man making $18 million a year again?

Answer this one by one.
1) This is true, but is very misleading, particularly because the two seasons where Pavano had a number of starts in double digits, he was pitching in the NATIONAL LEAGUE in Dolphin Stadium. Dolphin Stadium has always been a pitcher’s park, but the Oakland Coliseum played like a hitters park in 2004. A good way to control for this is a stat called ERA +, and there you see that Zito’s has always been over 100, which is good; during his one off-year it got up to 4.48, but the adjusted league average was 4.68. Pavano had one year with an ERA + over 100, and his poor performance with the Yankees doesn’t factor in since he’s only started 19 games for them, but his ERA was in about the 4.77 range last year, a much more useful comparison.
2) This is false. From 2003-2007, Zito has pitched 955.3 innings and struck out 653, making his K/9 6.15, while Redman struck out 443 over 748.7 innings, making for a K/9 of 5.33.
3) Now this is true and quite interesting. Perez had an all-star season in 2002 and beat Zito in WHIP that year too. Part of that is because of the league differences, but up through 2005, Odalis might have possibly looked preferable, particularly if he had run support (which he didn’t). Of course, Perez also clearly had some luck going for him, as he had a lower rate of hits in those years where he had a low ERA. Now he’s become hittable, and his WHIP has gone way up. And for what it’s worth, Zito has a much stronger mentality that Perez, and was able to get out of those jams much easier.

Overrated? I would agree he is at least to some extent, but it's only his contract that could put him at the top.

Now, we move onto:
No. 2 -- J.D. Drew

Nobody denies that Drew has massive talent oozing out of his eyebrows. You can tell because he entered this season as one of only 13 active players with a career slugging percentage over .500 and an on-base percentage over .390.

Yep, he’s pretty good.

But now the bad news: Those other dozen players have made a combined 70 All-Star teams (and all have made at least two apiece). And Drew has made, well, zero.

Are you retarded? If anything, All-Star appearances are a measure of perception. Fans vote for all-stars! If a player is that good, but hasn’t made an all-star team, doesn’t that suggest he’s underrated?! If the All-Star game was objective and smart, maybe, but there’s no way in hell that AJ Pierzynski is better than Pronk.

It sure is funny how all that talent has added up to just one 30-homer season, only one 100-RBI season, a .180 lifetime average in seven postseason series, no All-Star at-bats, nearly 400 games missed with a massive assortment of injuries and a $14 million a year paycheck. Let's just say this guy is realllly fortunate the Red Sox's great start has obscured his messy .169 average since April 21 -- because so far, the occupants of Fenway have been shockingly patient with him.

WRONG! Lifetime .180 average in 5 division series! He’s actually a lifetime .233 hitter in 7 postseason series. That still sucks, but don’t you have an editor? But that’s a terrible point because it’s basically a month’s worth of playing. Besides, for that matter, Derek Jeter hit .168 in 108 PA in April 2004, so don’t give me small sample things.

I already told you that allstar games don’t mean anything. We know that, and the “this time it counts” thing is a bunch of bull. The lack of 30 homer seasons was due to health concerns, sure, but don’t correlate a player’s performance with RBI. Derek Jeter only had 100 RBI in one season. Drew might be overpaid, but you said overpaid doesn’t necessarily mean overrated. And we know the Red Sox are fair-weather fans, but do you really think they’d look at a date as arbitrary as April 21 to start tracking his performance? The reason you picked it was that he hit .375/.456/.479 up until that point. If you have to manipulate facts to agree with what you say, then you’re probably not a reliable source.

3) Andruw Jones
I'm not going to devote a lot of space in this column to Jones.

I’m not going to devote a lot of space to discuss what you said, because JC Bradbury said it better at Sabernomics.

No. 4 -- Juan Pierre

Speed guys aren't automatically overrated. (See Reyes, Jose for more details.) But for years now, we've been getting way too worked up about players whose mere ability to bring their legs with them to first base can make a pitcher want to call his therapist between pitches. And that brings us to Pierre, a fellow so likable, it pains me to put him on this list. How can you not like a guy who loves baseball so much, he beats the grounds crew to the ballpark?

Well, ok, I’m gonna agree with you that Pierre is overrated offensively, even though he put on a hell of a show for me when I was there.

But I've been listening to GMs (mostly American League GMs) gripe for so long that Pierre is as overrated as any player in baseball, I'm finally ready to concede.

Wait a minute, you’re going to base who’s overrated on what other people say? Can you think of why this is stupid?

It was easier to argue the other side in 2003, the year Pierre and the Marlins won the World Series. That year, Pierre walked 55 times, struck out only 35 times, got 204 hits, reached base more than any leadoff man in baseball and led the league in steals.

So every leadoff man sucked in 2003. None of the other info in that paragraph means a whole lot of anything to me.

But leadoff hitters with .303 on-base percentages, who are on pace to walk 31 times in 748 trips to the plate -- i.e., the Juan Pierre presently playing out the first season of his five-year, $44 million contract with the Dodgers -- they're overrated. When Pierre reaches first in the late innings of a close game, he's still a game-changer. But think how much more often he would reach first if he actually walked three times a week instead of once.

Don’t give me on pace, because that always changes. And of course, he needs to get on base more to be effective. He is overrated, but not because someone told you he is.

No. 5 -- Bobby Abreu

Boy, do people love arguing about this fellow. Who can blame them?

The folks who only peruse Abreu's numbers don't just wonder what he's doing on this list.

They wonder when he's getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. How multitalented is Bobby Abreu? Well, he does happen to be the only active player with a .300 career batting average, a .400 on-base percentage, 200 homers and 250 stolen bases. And his .909 career OPS tops the OPS of Sammy Sosa, Chase Utley, Derrek Lee and many, many, many other famed batsmiths out there.

Those are very good numbers.

But there sure are a lot of people who watched him in Philadelphia who think Abreu is the poster boy for an unquantifiable division of the All-Overrated Team -- players who mysteriously seem to be less than the sum of their spectacular numbers.

When people battle me on this guy, I always sum it up this way: As great as Bobby Abreu can be, he lacks that all-important Derek Jeter gene. There is no voice in his head, screaming: "This ball has to be caught." Or: "That runner on third has to be driven in." In Philadelphia, where he was the centerpiece of the franchise, that one flaw showed up way too glaringly. Now, in New York, as the Yankees flounder, they're getting aggravated over the same stuff. Funny how that happens.

No, that actually sounds more like he’s underrated, because while reliable numbers suggest he’s good, people doubt it. In fact, some idiots actually suggested the Phillies were a better team without him. Your methodology is to suggest that the true value of a player is not in his numbers, but what people think of him. You probably tell your kids to always give into peer pressure, all the time. But seriously, do you actually buy this crap? This ball has to be caught – sure, I can understand not playing hard enough to do that. But that runner on third has to be driven in? I don’t care where you are, but particularly if you’re in the middle of the lineup, a walk is much better than a sac fly, because then you didn’t lose an out, and Arod or Ryan Howard, as the case may be, can hit a 3 run bomb.

No. 6 -- Brian Giles

Remember back when Giles was a perennial 37-homer, 100-RBI, .600-slugging walk machine in Pittsburgh? What happened to that Brian Giles?

He moved from PNC park to PETCO park. PETCO is an enormous pitchers park with a park factor in the low 90s, which means it’s a very strong pitchers park. If you actually look at it, you see that there are no power alleys, and it’s farther to right-center than to center field – 400 feet is a long way for a ball to travel! If you look at PNC, though, you notice that it’s only 370 feet to right center, and the outfield doesn’t stick out funny in right like it does in PETCO. Further, NL Central pitching, even back in the early 2000s, wasn’t as good as 2004 and later NL west pitching, even if he is on Jake Peavy’s team. The Rockies have the humidor now, after all.

That one-time .600 slugging percentage didn't even make it to .400 last season --and has submerged below .350 in 2007. And that quick, 37-homer bat mostly ropes balls the other way now -- leaving us with a guy who has as many homers this year as Kip Wells (one).

Not to suggest that Brian Giles isn't still a really useful player. Still cranks out tough at-bats and walks 100 times. Still gaps 35-40 doubles a year. But there's a difference between a star player and a useful player. And it's a difference that can propel a guy right onto an overrated list just like this one.

It also makes sense that in a large ballpark, he’s not going to try to hit home runs nearly as often. And it also makes sense that he’s not as good at age 36 as he was 5 or 6 years ago. Even with that, park factors and all, it is clear that Giles has deteriorated from age and injury (only 134 games in 2003). As for overrated, maybe on account of the fact that he hits 3rd for the Padres, but other than Adrian Gonzalez, nobody else on that team should be anywhere near the 3 spot. He hasn’t been named an all-star since 2001, and he doesn’t really get that much press outside of the NL West.

No. 7 -- Alfonso Soriano

When I did a quick all-active overrated poll of my friends in the baseball business, I was amazed at how many of them nominated Soriano. But wait. Remember, back in the Barry Zito section of this extravaganza, where we kicked around the similarity between "overpaid" and "overrated"? Well, the size of Soriano's paycheck has obviously gotten some folks' attention, too.

Again, you’re doing polls to decide who’s overrated? You might not get why this is dumb, but here’s why. Polls are a measure of how people are rated. What you’re trying to do is to determine value objectively compared to subjective values tainted by biases, allegedly. What you’re actually doing, though is taking biased information and then using that as evidence. Bad bad bad.

Is he a man with a spectacular array of talents? Of course. But here's how he wound up in this group: Last season, when he was driving for those Super Lotto dollars in Washington, he was a 46-homer, 41-steal, 95-RBI, .911-OPS kind of dynamo. This season, his first in Chicago after cashing in, he's on pace for a 16-homer, 29-steal, 37-RBI, .800-OPS kind of year. And when you sign on the dotted line for eight years, $136 million, people tend to notice that. Why is that, anyhow?

Because you’re looking at a small sample size. If you want to, you can even say he was distracted by playing center field at first. Soriano is a good baseball player, and if you were going to overrate him, it would have been 2 years ago. Back then, he was a guy who didn’t get on base a whole lot and played really poorly at 2nd base, not just with errors but in general. Then they discovered that he’s got poor instincts but really good speed and a really good arm, so they moved him into the outfield, where that kind of stuff actually matters (what the hell do you need an strong arm at 2nd for anyway?). Now he’s gone from worst defensive 2B in the game to gold glove outfielder (see his Rate2), and note that he threw out 22 guys last year. The Cubs paid him too much money and he’s not going to look but so good at the end of that contract, but for the time being, he’s a very good baseball player.

No. 8 -- Richie Sexson

Sexson and Adam Dunn fit into a category of overratedness I figured I'd better get to in this column someplace: Guys We Love Because They Can Pulverize A Baseball About 900 Feet.

Yes that’s part of why we like them. Adam Dunn is awesome because he gets on base a lot and makes an absolute mockery of the statistic called batting average.

But Sexson wound up winning this not-so-coveted spot for a couple of reasons: (1) He's the 10th-highest-paid player in the whole sport this year (at $15.5 million). And (2) he's hitting only a buck-77, with more strikeouts (32) than hits and homers combined (30). At least Dunn -- while he hasn't done that Ichiro impression he was forecasting -- is at .258, with 11 homers and seven steals, in between the whiffs.

Strikeouts are not that much worse than other outs. While you lose the opportunity for advancing the runners, which doesn’t always benefit you or else people would sacrifice all the time, you also lose the chance for a double play, and you force the pitcher to throw at least 3 pitches, often many more. Strikeouts are one of the three true outcomes, and Dunn, much more than Sexson, is the Three True Outcome player. Adam Dunn strikes out a ton, but he’ll also walk a ton. And over half his hits have been for extra bases the last few years. Dunn was an all-star once, the only Red in 2002 (every team has to send someone). Sexson is overpaid, sure, but overrated seems a stretch.

No. 9 -- Bob Wickman

Whoa. Almost made it through this whole list without including a closer. Can't do that. If the save is the most overrated stat in baseball -- and it is -- then we need somebody on this team to embody that.

A good call here. Yay! Clap Clap.

A scout nominated Wickman, and I'm still not sure if he belongs. But what the heck. He, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano have gotten massive credit for the salvation of the Braves' bullpen. But like the hitters who make all those outs against Wickman, I often ask myself: How the heck does he do it?

Good question. Lets see how you master it.

His WHIP this year is a messy 1.73 baserunners per inning. He's averaging nearly 20 pitches an inning. And he has handed out as many walks as strikeouts (10). But he has walked that tightrope and survived to tell about it. The saves (6-for-8) are there. So life seems good. But it definitely isn't as serene up close as it is from afar. Does that make him overrated? Hey, it does now. He's in this column, right?

Come on. You’re using small sample size data again! You had a Danys Baez “breaking ball” smack down the middle of the plate, and you told Olmedo Saenz to bunt. So now I have to pick a reason why what you said was awful. Does that make him overrated? What makes him overrated is that the only reason people think he’s any good is that he’s gotten saves before and he has experience. Because throughout his career he's had bad peripherals, and because people don't pay attention to the number of blown saves he has. That he has 6 out of 8 saves does not mean the saves are there; 75% is a horrible horrible save percentage for your closer, as most of the blown saves on your team show up from your 7th and 8th inning relievers.

May(ish) Report

2007-06-04T00:54:00.000-04:00

Compare to April

Since then, Tsao got hurt, Brazoban came and got hurt, Kuo came up, went down, switched back to the rotation, Tomko got sent to the bullpen, Hendrickson got sent to the bullpen, LaRoche came up, Abreu came up, Laroche was sent down, Valdez was DFA'd and outrighted to AAA.

Overall Record
33-23
Record with 3 or fewer runs scored:
8-15
Record with 3 or fewer runs allowed:
22-3
Record with 3 0r fewer runs scored by both teams:
8-3
Record in 1 run games
13-4
Extra Innings Record
3-0
Double digit run games, allowed:
4, 1
Shutouts
4
Times Shut out
2

Wins
Average Game Score: 59.8
Minimum: 35
Median: 62
Maximum: 81
Average IP: 6.20
Average Runs Scored: 5.73
Average Runs Allowed: 2.52

Losses
Average Game Score: 38.3
Minimum: 11
Median: 37
Maximum: 66
Average IP: 5.30
Average Runs Scored: 2.57
Average Runs Allowed: 6.04

Pitchers by Mean Game Score
Penny (6 starts): 57.0
Tomko (8 starts): 43.1
Wolf (6 starts): 54.8
Lowe (6 starts): 53.3
Kuo (1 start): 47
Hendrickson (8 starts): 45.1
Tomko (8 starts): 43.1
Schmidt (3 starts): 39.7

For defensive records up until this point, see here.

Here are the Rate2 and FP stats by position:

POS_Rate2_FP
1 - 107 - .981
2 - 109 - .989
3 - 90 - .992
4 - 86 - .966
5 - 93 - .950
6 - 113 - .969
7 - 91 - .988
8 - 99 - .986
9 - 96 - .965

Overrated-Underrated Dumbnitude

2007-05-31T00:53:00.000-04:00

I have long thought that the word stupidity sounds, well, too smart, so that's why I came up with dumbnitude, which just sounds harsher.

Jayson Stark decided that he was going to start the conversation with his list of who's overrated and who's underrated. It's one thing to discuss the contents of these lists, but it's the methodology that really drives me nuts. Nonetheless, I'll at least post his top 10 overrated and underrated players, with my commentary on whether or not they belong on the list, and if they should be higher up or lower down. In a future post, I'll describe what I think a bit further.

OVERRATED
1) Barry Zito (maybe, but the most overrated?)
2) JD Drew (don't think so)
3) Andruw Jones (no, because I read this)
4) Juan Pierre (why doesn't he top the list?)
5) Bobby Abreu (no, wrong list, though he has had some odd struggles the last couple years)
6) Brian Giles (wrong list entirely)
7) Alfonso Soriano (he used to be the type to top the list, but now, I'm not sure he belongs on it)
8) Richie Sexson (no, don't think so)
9) Bob Wickman (yeah, he's a fat dude that gets saves. yippie)
10) Jeff Suppan (yeah, he just finds run support and defense)

UNDERRATED
1) Roy Oswalt (no, everyone knows he's good and that Houston's offense just sucks)
2) Trevor Hoffman (hell no, people overrate him now because of his past; I don't know how he still gets people out)
3) Hanley Ramirez (he won Rookie of the Year last year, try again)
4) Jake Peavy (yes, should be near the top if not at the top)
5) CC Sabathia (yes likely)
6) Carl Crawford (no, people know he's the best player on Tampa Bay)
7) Placido Polanco (wrong list actually)
8) Kevin Youkilis (yay, you got something right)
9) Joe Nathan (probably, probably in the right spot too)
10) Travis Hafner (definitely, in fact he tops the list. Why the hell hasn't he been an allstar yet?!)

So here's what I'll actually discuss:
1) Analyze what Stark says about Overrated Players
2) Analyze what Stark says about Underrated Players
3) Attempt to derive what analytical methods Stark uses
4) Create my own analytical methods
5) Create my own top 10 Overrated List
6) Create my own top 10 Underrated List

More Roster Fun

2007-05-22T21:20:00.000-04:00

IN: INF Tony Abreu
OUT: P Hong-Chih Kuo

Also of note is that Tomko's next start will be skipped with the day off. This probably means that Billingsley gets a shot at the rotation, as it'll still be a few weeks before Schmidt returns. By that time, he can not only potentially take Tomko's spot, but also force Hendrickson out when the Dodgers $47 million pitcher returns. I really hope they put Billingsley in when he's in DC, because then I get to see him pitch!

But yeah, apparently LaRoche will be given platoon time with Gonzalez as well, and he and Abreu will compete for the 3rd base job, and effectively they'll compete with Ramon Martinez in a game of survivor. The burden of proof, of course, rests with LaRoche and Abreu, who still have minor league options.

Good Trade, Bad Trade

2007-05-22T14:45:00.000-04:00

Now, we know that Ned Colletti doesn't make good trades, but that doesn't stop him from trying. He is still the general manager, after all. So I will suggest some players it would be good to trade for that would possibly be traded, and some bad ones.

Good Trades
Adam Dunn - as mentioned before, a three true outcome player, hits the ball very hard, dependable for 40 homers a year. Even though he's a free agent next year if traded, he's worth keeping on the team. Would try some sort of pitching package, maybe Beimel and Hendrickson, or something, but at most Andre Ethier.
Pat Burrell - Has another year on his contract and is still worth keeping around, hits the ball pretty hard and gets on base. Would offer Betemit and Gonzalez.
Carl Crawford - good player, power and speed type, also good defensively. Signed through 2008 with options for 2009 and 2010, and very low cost money wise. Will cost more in terms of personnel, though. Would offer Ethier/Kemp and LaRoche/Betemit.
Miguel Cabrera - good player, very young. Would be worth sending over 3b prospects as he would hold the position for years to come. Would offer LaRoche/Betemit and Ethier/Kemp and/or Kuo.
Ryan Church - gets on base, hits for a bit of power - would probably see more outside DC. Will not be a free agent for a while. Would offer Tomko, Hendrickson, and Luis Gonzalez with money.
Jason Bay - underpaid 5 tool lf guy, could play rf. Would require a lot in terms of personnel (see LaRoche, Andy and Ethier, Andre or Kemp, Matt), but Pittsburgh might like the gimmick of having both LaRoche brothers. Would offer LaRoche and Ethier/Kemp.
Alex Rios - power developing, young player, not a free agent for two more years. Would offer Ethier/Kemp and Randy Wolf, or just Brad Penny if they throw someone else in.
Torii Hunter - 30 hr power, good CF defense, worth keeping for a few more years, worth arbitration at least. Would offer Ethier and Betemit.

Bad Trades
Scott Rolen - offers no improvement at a position with two ML possibilities already, and will cost $12 million a year. No way.
Troy Glaus? Mike Lowell? - No no no. Glaus will be nice until he hurts himself again. Lowell won't help at all.
Anyone at third that isn't meant to be there for a long time and really good.
Anyone who will be a rental player you wouldn't offer arbitration to.
Ken Griffey Jr. - see Glaus, Troy
Jay Payton
Jeff Conine
Jay Gibbons
Corey Patterson
Anything that displaces Ethier and not Gonzalez or Pierre

That being said, we'll see what happens. Hopefully something good, but you never know.

Juan Pierre Update

2007-05-20T19:54:00.000-04:00

I don't know if anyone reads this, but I really should update this blog more often. I would probably do a lot better if I wasn't so aware that nobody read the darn thing (or if I sent the link to someone else).

But anyway . . .

Juan Pierre has been off to a horrendously slow start. Well, by his standards no. He's not going to be wrecking anyone's fantasy team in a 5x5 roto league. But he's a little under his average level of performance, and that makes him really really bad. Consider his line:

.277/.305/.314, 15 SB, 5 CS, 5 2B, 1 3B, 27 R, 10 RBI, 1 SF, 6 S, 203 TPA

You could look at it this way, and get a different picture

.277 BA, 15 SB, 27 R

And from a fantasy perspective he's ok, and he'd probably pick up the average a bit. But what is bogging the average down though? Pierre isn't good, but he has been better than this before. Well, look at fangraphs, and let's break down what he's been doing.

First of all, he's striking out more and walking less than normal; normally Pierre's strikeouts and walks are about even, but that ratio is about 2 to 1 this year. Pierre will usually walk in 5.8% of his PAs, but now it's only 4.2%. His strikeouts are at about 9.2% of plate appearances this year, compared with a career rate of just 6.2%. Also worth considering are that Pierre's fly ball rate is way up - this year it's at 32.5%, compared to a career rate of 21.9%! As we all know, Pierre doesn't hit those fly balls for home runs very often, so it doesn't help him that he's hitting so many; his ground balls are down to 47% from 56.4% career. Pierre is also not bunting his way on base nearly as much as he used to: only 17.7% of his bunts are becoming hits, down from 37.7%; this number was 42.9% last year!

So Pierre needs to hit more grounders, fewer popups, and bunt better in order to be successful. Striking out less would be nice.

Bill Plaschke is Dumb. Really Dumb.

2007-05-13T14:56:00.000-04:00

We all know DUI is bad, all except for MLB, according to Plaschke.

Yeah, MADD is mad, and I don't blame it. Baseball struts around the national stage fighting steroids, then slips into the shadowy wings to embrace alcohol. Baseball will suspend a player for 50 games if he plays while juiced, yet zero games if he drives while drunk. Baseball has rid the clubhouse of all performance-enhancing drugs, yet continues to serve its players beer.

What's really awesome about Google's Blogger is that I copied 4 1-sentence paragraphs, and it automatically corrected that and turned it into one paragraph. Another thing I noticed is that Plaschke apparently doesn't seem to think that PED's matter with regard to cheating and the integrity of the game; the way the article is written, he seems to imply that we regulate against steroids to protect kids from destroying themselves. But I digress.

Plaschke makes a huge point here that the greatest demon in MLB is giving players free alcohol in the clubhouse. Now, if anything, this seems really to be quite pointless. Why would it matter if a player has to pay for a beer when his minimum wage is $400,000 a year? Is this really supposed to make a difference? Are we to believe now that if we forced players to leave the clubhouse that all DUI would be eliminated? After all, Tony LaRussa (who Plaschke mentions) got drunk away from the clubhouse, at a restaraunt. Should restaraunts not serve alcohol to such folks? We still haven't gotten to how one is innocent until proven guilty, but the argument here is weak enough.

But there is something more bizarre about this. Plaschke cites the death toll from drunk driving anually:

At last count, the annual ratio was about 12,000 to 1.

So 12,000 people a year die from DUI. You know what that means? There are 750 MLB players but 12,000 people a year die from DUI, so each MLB player is responsible for the death of 16 people a year. By comparison, the two Columbine killers killed 15 people including themselves, only 7.5 people per year. That is, of course, if Bill Plaschke is right and all sports-related DUI is caused by players.

We know of course, this is worthless drivel. The fact of the matter is that if anyone is responsible, it's the sports fans who do it, particularly in football. Football tailgaters will show up early enough to get drunk before the game even starts. At all kinds of sports games, you can just keep buying beers to stay intoxicated all game. If we really wanted to stop DUI at sporting events, why not ban alcohol for sale to the public? If you're serious about stopping DUI, don't be cheap.

But that's just it; people will spend a lot of money to get drunk while watching the game. At upwards of $6-7 per beer, people still managed to get smashed during a baseball game. When you have that going on, why would it matter that players can get free beer in the clubhouse. Can't intoxicated fans also potentially drive drunk, and doesn't the crowd of 20,000-50,000 matter more than a few?

Of course, maybe instead of alcohol prohibition (which America already tried), people should just look for ways to control themselves, and be more responsible. Maybe increase punishments for DUI. But look, 12,000 people a year are not dying because of MLB.

April Report

2007-05-02T02:09:00.000-04:00

Time for a bunch of useless summary statistics, including tonight's game since the season started April 2.

Overall Record
16-11
Record with 3 or fewer runs scored:
4-8
Record with 3 or fewer runs allowed:
11-1
Record with 3 0r fewer runs scored by both teams:
4-1
Record in 1 run games
6-3
Extra Innings Record
2-0
Double digit run games, allowed:
2, 0
Shutouts
1
Times Shut out
0

Wins
Average Game Score: 58.8
Minimum: 36
Median: 61.5
Maximum: 76
Average IP: 6.15
Average Runs Scored: 5.81
Average Runs Allowed: 2.25

Losses
Average Game Score: 37.7
Minimum: 20
Median: 45
Maximum: 50
Average IP: 5.24
Average Runs Scored: 2.73
Average Runs Allowed: 6

Pitchers by Mean Game Score
Hendrickson (2 starts): 58.5
Penny (6 starts): 57.5
Tomko (4 starts): 51.5
Wolf (6 starts): 49.7
Lowe (6 starts): 45
Schmidt (3 starts): 39.7

What's with Gil Meche?

2007-04-29T02:48:00.000-04:00

Gil Meche was signed for 5 years, $55 million by Dayton Moore last year, and everyone thought that was stupid. They're not wrong yet, but Meche has shown noticeable improvement.

Out of his first 6 starts, 5 have been "quality starts" (at least 6 IP, 3 ER or less). More to the point, he's 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA, although it should be noted that he's surrendered 6 unearned runs (compared to only 10 earned runs). So that looks really really good.

So what is different about Gil Meche?

He may prove to be more durable as a starter, because thus far he has 15.19 pitches per inning, down from 17.32 career, so it's not unthinkable to consider that he could continue to go deep into games. At that, he has not thrown more than 111 pitches.
Meche's K/9 rate is no different from his career rate, but his BB/9 is currently 1.96, compared to 3.91 career. That's half of the walks he usually allows.
Meche has a career GO/AO (ground out/air out ratio) of .96; this year it's 2.1. This is an extroardinary change to being a groundball pitcher, and if he can sustain that, he'll reduce the number of balls hit hard against him, and thus his opponent's slugging average. As it stands, opponents are batting a staggering .283/.324/.390, compared to .261/.339/.427. Even with a ridiculous .283 opponent's average (which should drop off quite a bit) which is well above average, he's letting fewer people on base, and they are not hitting the ball nearly as hard. This would certainly correspond to his drop in home run rate, as that's now down to 1 every 10.25 innings from about 1 every 8.
His H/9 is actually up this year, so it is not unthinkable to think that he could improve a bit.

It's really looking quite promising for the guy, but it should be noted that he's historically a bit better in the first half (though a lot of that is due to a history of really good Junes). Meche has had months where he's had a comparable ERA, but he's never pitched 41 innings in a month with 6 starts or fewer. I'm not going to say he's the best offseason move the Royals have ever made, but he certainly had a noteworthy month.

On the coming trade for Adam Dunn

2007-04-26T17:35:00.000-04:00

The Reds cannot simply wait for Griffey to get injured in order to fit the hot and mighty Josh Hamilton into their lineup. The fact is that they've got a surplus of talented outfielders, and just as they did with Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, they will trade for pitching, and the likely target is Adam Dunn, since his contract is up next year, and GM Wayne Krivsky has said he doesn't like strikeouts.

Dunn is what some call a Three True Outcomes (3TO) player, because when he's at the bat he'll either strike out, walk, or hit the ball out of the park. The downside for many is that he'll strike out so much that his batting average will suffer quite a bit. This is true, but what is unseen is that Dunn also walks a whole lot. Adam Dunn had only 131 hits last year, but he had 112 walks; that's 245 times on base, which is 9 more than this leadoff man who "gets on base an awful lot" and played 162 games last year. Of course, Dunn also hits the ball very hard when he makes contact; over his career, 363 of his 716 hits have been for extra bases, which is a bit over 50%, so those hits are generally quite useful.

The Dodgers desperately need a power bat, and they'd be willing to part with a pitcher for Dunn. If they're smart, they'll offer Randy Wolf, who appears to be making a great comeback season, and his contract is over next year. If they're slightly less smart, they'll offer Brad Penny, who is a bargain for the next few years for his performance. If they're really stupid, they'll offer Chad Billingsley for a rental of Dunn; Kuo's injury-ridden history would allow me to accept trading him, though.

All that would need to be done next would be to make a significant package for Andruw Jones that involves shipping out Juan Pierre, or a similar trade for Torii Hunter. Then sign one, based on where you want Matt Kemp to play, right or center field.

There's no way Colletti will trade for A-Rod; the guy is a Boras client with an opt-out clause, and Colletti will not feel safe with that.

The series against Pittsburgh

2007-04-22T18:32:00.000-04:00

That was some absolutely foul baseball. Downright awful I tell you. But the Dodgers won two out of three.

GAME 1
Dodgers 10, Pirates 2
Wolf 65, Armas 10

I have to admit that this was a rather enjoyable game. LA absolutely dominated Pittsburgh in the contest; there was no contest. Wolf struck out 10 over 6 innings, so he gets player of the game honors.

Game 2
Dodgers 7, Pirates 3
Penny 49, Snell 60

Watching Gameday made it clear that Cowboy Joe West had a poor judgement of the strike zone. A very poor judgement. So poor, in fact, that Grady Little got himself thrown out of a game. That was only the second time Grady has done that, and each time there was some poor umpiring. But Penny still managed to go 6 innings, and the Dodgers were lucky enough to win on a Martin grand slam.

Game 3
Pirates 7, Dodgers 5
Tomko 45, Gorzelanny 54

The worst defense ever, quite possibly. Martin fumbled the ball, at one point, which apparently inspired a chain reaction. Pierre made an error on one play, and then misplayed an out into a double on another, so Tomko should have been better off than he was. The Dodgers could have won this game were it not for Pierre's adventures in the outfield, although Billingsley had a poor showing as well. But he has a lower ERA than Jason Schmidt, so I'll give him some time. Unfortunately, not enough of a rally to pull it off this time.

Team Stats as of 4/21/07

2007-04-21T12:18:00.000-04:00

The Dodgers are in first place and have the best record in MLB, so I figured I'd see how they stack against other teams in team pitching and hitting categories. What could be said to be fueling their particular success?

So I'll use the following for the team over all, and also splits for starters and bullpen.
ERA
WHIP
K/9
K/BB
HR rate

Additionally, I'll also look at IP/GS and an adjusted save percentage of (SV+HLD)/(SVO+HLD), since if you blow the lead in a hold situation it's called a blown save.

On the offensive end, I'll look at ranks in runs scored, runs batted in, BA/OBP/SLG, and splits with RISP.

So here it is:

DODGERS TEAM PITCHING STATS

Starters:
ERA: 3.29 (6th)
WHIP: 1.42 (17th)
K/9: 6.42 (13th)
K/BB: 1.80 (18th)
IP/HR: 15.95 (tied for 3rd)
IP/start: 5.6 innings

Relievers:
ERA: 2.32 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.05 (2nd)
K/9: 7.95 (9th)
K/BB: 3.20 (1st)
IP/HR: 18.1 (7th)
adjusted SV%: 92%

Whole Team:
ERA: 2.94 (4th)
WHIP: 1.29 (12th)
K/9: 7.02 (9th)
K/BB: 2.17 (7th)
IP/HR: 16.7 (3rd)

NOW THE HITTERS

OVERALL
.271/.337/.390 (5th/10th/15th), 9 HR (25th), 84 R (3rd), 80 RBI (3rd)

RISP
.297/.380/.439 (5th/7th/10th), 73 R (2nd), 69 RBI (1st, tie)

Nobody out
.289/.360/.416 (7th/3rd/13th), 22 R (4th, tie), 22 RBI (3rd)

1 out
.301/.359/.440 (3rd/5th/5th), 35 R (2nd, tie), 34 RBI (2nd)

2 out
.216/.283/.304 (26th/26th/28th), 27 R (15th), 24 RBI (17th)

RISP, 2 Out
.226/.333/.387 (17th/17th/14th)

Last coupla serieses

2007-04-21T01:10:00.000-04:00

I have to say I was impressed with the 4 games on the road, winning 3 out of 4. The most pleasant surprise was Mark Hendrickson's start.

I'll put up detail on the Pirates series when it's done, but for now I'll just do some quick stuff:

Game 1: Dodgers vs Arizona
Result: win 5-2
Penny 62, Gonzalez 37

Game 2: Dodgers vs Arizona
Result: win 6-4
Tomko 36, Owings 43

Game 3: Dodgers vs Rockies
Result: lose 2-7
Lowe 29, Lopez 51

This game was particularly disturbing because Rodrigo Lopez pitched well against LA again, and even worse, Derek Lowe couldn't give as good a start as Brett Tomko, so the Dodgers lost.

Game 4: Dodgers vs Rockies
Result: win 5-1
Hendrickson 56, Cook 44

Not a bad game by Hendrickson. He was making a spot start, so his pitch count was limited; he would have hit the 60s if he had another inning, likely.

The Dodgers go into the series against Pittsburgh 11-5, and will likely be 12-5 not to long after I finish this post.

Jackie Robinson

2007-04-15T14:36:00.000-04:00

The guy was flat-out good, no question about it. Had the Dodgers gotten him 5 years earlier, though, imagine how much of the 1940s they could have dominated.

Jackie Robinson did a lot for baseball to break the color barrier. For one thing, he was good. He had to be good, after all; the Dodgers would take quite a risk in putting him on the team, including trading some racist players who couldn't handle playing alongside him. To be good, he would need not only his normal talent, but he couldn't be phased by anything that would come up, including taunts from opposing teams' fans, players, etc, and that's to say the very least. Duke Snider notes that Robinson was a very tough figure, and that mental toughness was necessary to make the transition to playing in the majors, particularly as the first black player in MLB.

Another thing that should not be forgotten is how good a player he was. Robinson was one of the premier players at second base not only in his day, but all-time. Robinson had the 6th highest OBP of second baseman in MLB all time, behind only:
Rogers Hornsby,
Eddie Collins,
Max Bishop,
Cupid Childs,
Eddie Stanky
and of those players, only Hornsby had a higher career slugging percentage.

As far as defense goes, Robinson played his most games at second base and third base, putting up a Rate2 of 110 and 116 at those positions, respectively (compare to Hornsby's career mark of 99 at 2nd; note that Rate2 is such that 100 is considered average at the position).

But that aside, Robinson was a bold man and a leader, and he is an inspiration to anyone who wants to overcome prejudices to succeed. There have been great players that play the game, but not in the same circumstances, so it is only natural that there is no Babe Ruth day, etc. Robinson's contribution is so unique, MLB is right to honor him in such a way.

Series 2 - San Francisco Giants

2007-04-07T16:53:00.000-04:00

Well, the Giants didn't put up as much of a fight as one would expect in a rivalry. Fact is, they're pretty bad, and too old. Durham's got a good bit of pop for a 2b, but you don't want him to be higher than a 5 guy, though. Bonds will keep getting walked I guess, but the guy is just an injury or an indictment away from making you look weak. Ryan Klesko? Come on, now five or six years ago I'd say sure, but Klesko's clearly past his prime.

And with all the money they spent on Barry Zito, they also had Russ Ortiz start. All they had to do was get Lance Niekro to throw a knuckleball. It was good to see Russ back, though, walking in a run.

It was also nice to see Gonzalez finally make a positive contribution with his two homer game on Sunday. Juan Pierre, however, has yet to impress me, and I doubt he will. And I know Wilson Valdez can't keep it up. But whatever. Sweep of the Giants, you gotta love it.

GAME 1:
Dodgers 2, Giants 1.
Penny 53 Lowry 61

This game featured one of the funniest runs all season. Matt Kemp singles on a grounder to the pitcher, then reaches second on an error. Kemp then makes it to third on a wild pitch, and finally he scores on a fielder's choice attempt, as he avoids the tag. Reminds me of a little league play from when I was 8 and hit an inside-the-park home run. I was on the Athletics.

GAME 2:
Dodgers 4, Giants 1
Lowe 64, Ortiz 42

Russ Ortiz wasn't completely terrible, but maybe he was and the Dodger offense made him look good. After watching Sheets in his second start of the season, I'm thinking that maybe the Dodgers will be lucky to score 700 runs this year, especially with Pierre in the leadoff spot.

GAME 3:
Dodgers 10, Giants 4
Wolf 62, Zito 23

Bochy may not have deserved his ejection, but maybe what goes around comes around for that bogus 2 meetings on the mound thing last year. But in any event, the Dodgers kicked Barry Zito around pretty hard, much more successful than last year. A lot of the credit goes to Luis Gonzalez, who smacked two big flies in that game.

April 2-4, The Brewers

2007-04-05T01:25:00.000-04:00

So here's my wrap-up of the series, from what I could gather via gameday and other such reports.

Nothing really came as that much of a surprise. Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez, blame the park all you want, were not very impressive in the outfield. Grady Little kept mysteriously using Matt Kemp in Ethier's place and leaving Gonzalez in (Ethier also hasn't gotten on base yet this season). Takashi Saito saw his first action tonight in the win to pick up the save and save the team from Rudy Seanez. Broxton has been rock solid so far.

Martin was about the only player who did particularly well on offense, and the #2 spot suits him well. Pierre finally hit the ball, but more spectacularly took a walk only to be driven in by Martin on the next play in game #2.

Also, the Brewers have a lot more dominance in their pitching staff that people don't seem to notice, and their offense is fairly strong as well. They are questionable in terms of depth, but otherwise this is a team that can contend.

Numbers Breakdown:
Game 1: Lose 1-7
Game Scores: Lowe 21, Sheets 82
Player of the Game: Ben Sheets

Game 2: Lose 3-4
Game Scores: Wolf 46, Capuano 49
Player of the Game: Broxton

Game 3: Win 5-4
Game Scores: Schmidt 59, Suppan 54
Player of the game: Olmedo Saenz

The Wisdom of Dodger Blues

2007-04-03T13:26:00.000-04:00

From Asshole of the Moment:
3.24.07 - Grady Little
If Rafael Furcal isn't ready for Opening Day, don't expect Nomar to make the logical switch to short with James Loney slipping in at first. Instead, it looks like Little would go with Tony Abreu at shortstop—a position he doesn't play. Little will tell you that he doesn't want Nomar getting hurt, but if that's the case, why even play him at all? Why not just put him in a display case behind home plate and let people take pictures of him?

This is really an excellent point, and matters are made worse by the fact that instead of Abreu, it's a platoon of Wilson Valdez and Ramon Martinez. While this is better than Hamulack and Carter out of the bullpen, it is horrible nonetheless. Moving Nomar over to short and playing Loney at first would upgrade defense at first and the lineup overall. Besides, Nomar would presumably last longer at short than, oh, SATURDAY, when Furcal should be back. And you could have still kept Kemp in the lineup.

Further, I nominate Grady for AHOTM for suggesting that Ethier should be platooned. Ethier can hit left handers, which we established last year, but Gonzo can't. Further, if he's basing this on one game, that's absurd. For that matter, why not bench Pierre and Gonzalez, who sucked in the game . . . YESTERDAY! Or maybe banish Derek Lowe to the bullpen for only lasting 4 innings and then promote Hendrickson to the rotation (no, don't. Please don't). This is insanity, and nothing less. Tomorrow should turn out better, though, because it's Jason Schmidt against Jeff Suppan.

The Ned Colletti Transaction Log, 2006 season

2007-03-28T10:32:00.001-04:00

2005-2006 Offseason - C+

Signings: B+
Rafael Furcal - SS, 3 years, $39 Million
This was his best move of the offseason, and didn't look that way at first. Furcal turned out to not only be a solid ballplayer, but also have a bit of power potential. While error-prone, his range makes him a very good defensive shortstop.

Grady Little
Tough to hire a manager, Colletti did pretty well here, having chosen a guy who doesn't do stupid stuff like make his players bunt needlessly, etc. Was not harmful and was funny, all one can ask from a manager.

Bill Mueller - 2 yrs, $9 million
Mueller should have raised red flags regarding his health, but he wasn't too expensive. At least he was used to the defensive position, but still, he played 110 games in 2004 because of his knees, and he ended up playing his last game in May or something. But at least his age didn't clog up 3rd base in front of talent in the minors.

Kenny Lofton - 1 yr, $4 million
Not a bad move, really. A transition player, and he was still useful offensively. His defense, though, was attrocious.

Nomar Garciaparra - 1 yr, $6 million
Nomar was a pretty good signing. Low risk at the price, and he turned out being a useful 3-hitter. Transition to first base that year helped to preserve him well.

Sandy Alomar Jr - 1 yr, $600k (?)
Not a good signing, the guy was in no shape to be a catcher, but he was a useful pinch hitter. Should have DL-ed or released him when Martin came up, but didn't.

Trades: C-
Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez for Andre Ethier
Trading for a prospect from Oakland? Turned out it was one of Colletti's better trades. Ethier is a corner guy, and not a big power guy, but he put up a 113 OPS+ as a rookie. Not bad.

Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll for Jae Seo and Tim Hamulack
This was not a good trade. Schmoll and Hamulack were both a wash, but while Sanchez was a useful reliever, Seo was a useless starter who had a career year the year before. I understand the gamble, but it did not work out. The Mets didn't benefit but so much, though, due to Sanchez's accident.

Chuck Tiffany and Edwin Jackson for Danys Baez and Lance Carter
BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD! Baez was overrated as a closer and collapsed, and Carter was already washed up. It's also not certain that these two pitchers are useless, either.

Non-Roster guys who made the team at some point: A
Takashi Saito - CL
Good signing. The Dodgers had tried getting him before, and he managed to bring the guy over. Not bad taking a chance on him, and he turned out saving the team's ass.

Joe Beimel - LHRP
Had a decent year despite his peripherals, thanks to a very high ground ball rate. Benefitted from being used well by Grady Little.

Ramon Martinez - UTIL
He could hit . . . for a little while.

Aaron Sele - RHP
Actually a decent starting pitcher. Unfortunately, he declined, particularly after going to the bullpen, but not bad for what he did as a starter.

Season Moves - C-
Navarro and Seo for Hendrickson and Hall
Seo is still a Devil Rays starter. Hall was released, got picked up by the White Sox, and his season is over due to surgery. Hendrickson is probably going to be a long reliever this year. Dioner Navarro, though, turned out to be useful, and he even threw out baserunners after LA traded him.

Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel, and $10 million for Dessens
The real question: is Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel worth Dessens and $3 million? The answer of course is no. Odalis should have just been released.

Sandy Alomar Jr for BJ Lamura
Not a bad trade, although it took to long to dump Alomar. Lamura looks like he might impress, even.

Cesar Izturis for Greg Maddux
Interesting trade. On the one hand, the Dodgers got a pitcher with a FIP under 4 and traded off a good glove/bad bat shortstop, swapping a gold glover for another gold glover. On the other hand, since they failed to offer Maddux arbitration, they got nothing. But still, they rid themselves of a player their offense could no longer afford and got Greg Maddux for him. Probably one of Colletti's best.

Joel Guzman for Julio Lugo
And then he ruined the Maddux trade with this one. Guzman had fallen out of favor with the LA brass, and Lugo was his chosen heir. Colletti got him just for the draft picks, again, indicating a low level of confidence in Guzman. Lugo played regularly for two weeks while Kent and Garciaparra were both injured, but afterwards was a bench player who was consistently useless. BOOOOO!

Jhonny Nunez for Marlon Anderson
Sometimes you get lucky, but the Dodgers got a friggin' leprechaun on this one. Seriously, Marlon Anderson was vital to the Dodgers September run, most notably as their 4th consecutive home run, with a shot to right field off Trevor Hoffman. Not bad, but this move may not look as good next year.

Overall, I give Colletti a C+ for his work. He had some nice work with the spring training invites, but more often than not he's a nightmare when trading. His best strategy is to offer a lot of money over a short period of time. Not bad with the non-roster guys either, I must say. He wasn't terrible, a little above average I guess, but I hold a higher standard, personally.

Groan

2007-03-26T00:36:00.000-04:00

Well, the regular season is upon us, and one can certainly tell as Bill "Paragraph" Plaschke has a column out about Brad Penny. I'll leave it to the fine folks at Fire Joe Morgan to rip stuff apart, but there are a couple points I want to address.

"I don't want to leave," Penny said. "I want to finish what I started here." That's been his problem here. He has started, but never finished.

Well that's not entirely true; Brad Penny had a complete game for the Dodgers in 2005 against the Mets, as seen here, where he outdueled Pedro. Remember, it only takes one instance to disprove the word "never."

It is also worth noting that the connections to Penny's health are a bit more back door. Because he began relying on his fastball too much, he became more hittable or easier to hit a foul ball off of.

Another point in the Plaschke column:
He says he is sorry for each of last year's three infamous temper tantrums, and he has vowed to avoid them this year.

What were these:

1) He got pulled from a game after giving up 5 runs with a gigantic lead, and Grady wasn't about to let it slip away. It was the 5th inning, so that meant no win. But hey, the player's win-loss statistic is meaningless, so that's a stupid concern. Isn't that right, Bill? Oh wait, you think pitchers' win statistics matter? But you're a sports columnist, so you don't have any sense of responsibility? Ok, sure.

2) A poor umpiring call. Grady Little went to talk to Brad Penny, stepped off the mound to say a word to the umpires when they interrupted him, and then stepped back on to talk to Penny. Padres manager Bruce Bochy claimed that was a second trip to the mound, and so Penny should have only had one more batter, and the umpires actually bought such foolishness. Grady Little was ejected from this game, the only game of the season where that happened. Penny figured he was out of the game anyway, so he might as well get ejected while he was at it.
See DodgerBlues, and look for this picture, and it will remind you that Julio Lugo was also thrown out of this poorly officiated game. The score up top is wrong, though, and Penny did give up 6 runs.

3) Penny's supposedly most egregous error was in screaming at Kenny Lofton. To be fair, it is good to have a policy on this sort of thing, and Penny should not have screamed like he did, as he acknowledged. However, it is also true that Kenny Lofton was a nightmare defensively. In fact, the only way one can truly make sense of the Juan Pierre signing is in light of this incident. Pierre led the NL (and I think the majors too) in zone rating last year, meaning that if someone hit the ball to center field, he'd get it more often than anyone on average. Pierre was signed because he was the best defensive option in center field, unless you think Alfonso Soriano's arm outweighs his instincts (like 1 handed catches on routine flies). Even as he'll be a dropoff from Kenny Lofton at the plate, Pierre will probably make up at least some of that in center field. Penny has played with Pierre before too: back in Florida, where they won the World Series in 2003.

******

Now admittedly, Penny needs to cool down quite a bit, but so does Bill Plaschke.

Last one

2007-03-19T23:24:00.000-04:00

AL EAST

Yanks
Sox
Blue Jays
O's
D-Rays

Unless everything collapses for Boston, the Orioles pitching staff and lineup depth pays off, and Tampa doesn't suddenly learn what success looks like. I'd put Baltimore as possible for a switch with Boston, but give them about a 3% chance of that, thinking optimistically. I do think the O's will win 75-80 at least.

But that's all this division gets.

JD Boo-Hoo

2007-03-05T22:05:00.000-05:00

JD Drew, who disgracefully is ashamed of his excellent first name, also feels the need to strike back verbally at Ned Colletti, months after bolting for a big fat raise.

Saying it was a business decision, citing job security and not wanting to be traded as his primary reasons for employing the clause, Drew said he did not begin to consider the option until the 2006 season ended.

It strikes me as ludicrous for anyone who is guaranteed a contract to worry about job security. If anything, he was in a position to take over center field in Los Angeles so that James Loney or Matt Kemp could have taken the extra outfield spot. The fact is the Dodgers would not have been nearly as likely to retain Nomar Garciaparra had Drew stayed in LA, and Drew could have even gotten the 3-hitter job. When Bill Plaschke calls for Loney over Nomar, you know something's up.

As for whether or not he would have been traded, the time to trade Drew would have been at the deadline to Seattle for Adrian Beltre, but Colletti decided not to go down that road (good call) and got Wilson Betemit instead, even dumping Danys Baez in the process. As for trading him, think in Colletti terms: the Dodgers would give up a fair amount of power (their leader in homers and RBI last year) as well as a veteran with decent defense (although a declining arm).

Besides, LA was looking to up their pitching staff through free agency and trade for a power hitter, and they'd have to trade Drew for another outfielder. He wouldn't go within the division to Arizona nor to Anaheim, the Mets wouldn't have an attractive enough offering, the Marlins likely wouldn't want to double their payroll for him, the Orioles don't have anyone, the Red Sox wouldn't give up Pena for him, the Yankees wouldn't give up Matsui, the Blue Jays wouldn't budge, the Rangers had nobody. The Phillies? ha! I could see the Reds taking him for Dunn and someone else, but Dunn has one year before free agency. I could also see the Tigers going for him, because they are very weak in team OBP and have Monroe and Thames as potential trade targets, perhaps both. But other than Cincy or Detroit, I would have doubted it, and if Drew specified those teams, then no dice.

Drew opted out because he knew $11 million a year was a bargain on the market for the type of player he is (a poor man's Bobby Abreu). He's a good ball player, and the team OBP will miss him next year. I won't deny that the glossy pages didn't include my last paragraph. But if he's going to say he's offended that Colletti would attack his honesty, and add some bogus window-dressing reasons, then something is wrong.

In which I respectfully but critically remark on Sarah Morris's last Column

2007-03-04T15:21:00.000-05:00

From her website as well as Dodgers.com, Sarah Morris wrote a bit on the Dodgers need for better defense. I comment on some excerpts:

Although many baseball fans often overlook the defense, it is mandatory to any baseball team. Poor defense can undermine a superior pitching performance, but good defense can bail out a struggling pitcher. Last year the Dodgers had middle-of-the-league defense, and this season the Dodgers should have an improved defense.

So far not bad, and full of her typical optimism.

The Dodgers and many of their fans worried about the starters’ endurance. This off-season Ned Colletti signed Randy Wolf and Jason Schmidt, who have averaged 200 innings a year, to help limit the trips to the bullpen. They will, but committing fewer errors should lead to shorter innings. When the team doesn’t make an error, a pitcher will have an easier time getting three outs with fewer than 16 pitches. An error gives the opposition an extra scoring opportunity.
A spectacular defensive play or an inning-ending double play can save the game for a team. Sometimes a pitcher allows the opposition to load the bases with no outs. If he can rely on his defense, he can let the batter hit the ball. A soft pop up and a double play end a potentially messy inning. A defensive play that makes everyone go, “Wow!” can prevent a multiple-run inning. Both an awesome play and an inning-ending double play can help the team’s morale and discourage the opposition.

She is partly right here, as failure to make an out on a ball in play can shorten innings. Making an error is a way of failing to make such an out. Another way, though, is in playing a player with poor range who can not reach a ball that a more nimble player may be able to get to, or having a catcher who can't throw out baserunners. It is also true that while errors can be declared arbitrarily, they do affect a pitcher mentally, and that pitcher's mental toughness affects his confidence as well as his ability to think straight. Kenny Lofton did not get "errors" for his adventures in the outfield last year, though, but that clearly had detrimental effects. While the wow factor affects other mental and emotional parts, a spectacular play does not differ a lot from a routine play. Still, though, nothing too objectionable yet.

The popularity of Moneyball has lessened the emphasis on having good defense. Though the book has some good ideas, putting less importance on defense was not one. The Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith prevented more runs with his amazing glove than he produced offensively. Many baseball people believe players can learn defense while they can’t learn to hit. Not many people can learn Gold Glove defense.

In the first place, the analysis in the first paragraph of the story, while somewhat intuitive, is part of the moneyball way of thinking. It's the same mentality that says you're overpaying if you sign Jeff Suppan for a 4 year deal, because defense is a part of what makes up pitching. The fact is that defense is just harder to quantify, and further, it is harder to determine the difference on the margins. Gold Glove defense is arbitrary, and particularly hard to learn since the award can be given to Brad Ausmus over Yadier Molina, and Edgar Renteria twice. Further, that a player won a gold glove does not guarantee good defense, as Kenny Lofton's 2006 was a decade past his last gold glove award.

In the National League, having a good defense is more important than it is in the American League. Without the designated hitter, the National League typically has lower scoring games than in the American League. Many baseball fans prefer the National League or “Old School” style of baseball when the teams must pitch, defend, and manufacture runs well to be successful.

To some extent, sure, since the marginal value of preventing a run would decrease if runs are easier to come by. But to the extent that pitchers do not strike out more batters in the American League, there are still as many balls in play, so you still need defense. The impact of the DH is not nearly as drastic as Sarah makes it out to be; rather, it just means that there's less for the manager to do because you never need to make a double switch. It is asinine, though, to suggest that pitching and defense don't matter in the AL, and it doesn't make sense in either case to give up outs for the sake of potentially "manufacturing runs."

In 2004, the Dodgers had the best defense in baseball. Dodger fans delighted watching the National League Western Divisional title team field. The double play duo of Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis made marvelous plays that made crowds gasp in delighted amazement. Adrian Beltre was a human vacuum cleaner at third base. The Dodgers’ superior defense helped them win many games and made other weaknesses of the team seem unimportant.

In 2004 the Dodgers had the best fielding percentage in baseball, but Izzy also led by a good margin in Zone Rating at short. Beltre is clearly one of the better defensive third basemen in the game. The main weakness for LA that year was in starting pitching, as Beltre was a great hitter in 2004, and Shawn Green was still a little useful, and LA had Bradley too. The rotation consisted of Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez, Jose Lima, help! and help!. Brad Penny promptly hurt himself after being traded for, and Derek Lowe would not arrive until the next season. The Dodgers also had a healthy Gagne along with the likes of Mota and Brazoban to set him up. That defense did help the starting pitching, admittedly, until the Dodgers reached the playoffs and gave two starts to Odalis Perez

The Dodgers lost J.D. Drew, but they won’t miss him defensively. Both Andre Ethier and Luis Gonzalez are better outfielders than Drew is. With one year of major league experience, Ethier shouldn’t make as many mental errors as he did. Gonzalez is still fast, and this will enable him to cover much ground. Jason Repko, an excellent defensive outfielder, should be the fourth outfielder, and Dodger fans should expect to see him as a defensive replacement in the later innings.

Repko will probably be traded because Pierre's the kind of guy who will play 162, and Repko is most useful as a CF with his arm and range. Drew is better defensively than Ethier, but I will admit he had a tendency to completely lose his mind on occasion. I saw a game where LA played in RFK last year, and Drew completely botched the first ball that came to him, misplaying an out (maybe a single) into a double. I have seen two Dodger games in person, and JD Drew went 0-5 in each of them.

Predictions for 2007 - AL Central

2007-03-01T00:48:00.000-05:00

Now this is the hard one. This will require more thought than any other division I have had to consider. Here goes.

New players
Tigers: Gary Sheffield
White Sox: Gavin Floyd
Injuns: Josh Barfield, David Delucci, Trot Nixon, Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez
Twins: Jeff Cirillo
Royals: Gil Meche, Octavio Dotel, Brian Bannister

Predicted order of finish

5th Place: Kansas City Royals (-20)

Lineup:
2 - Buck (.245/.306/.396), 26
3 - Shealy (.277/.333/.450), 27
4 - Grudzielanek (.297/.331/.409), 36
5 - Teahen (.290/.357/.517), 25
6 - Beroa (.234/.259/.333), 29
7 - Brown (.287/.358/.457), 32
8 - DeJesus (.295/.364/.446), 27
9 - Sanders (.246/.304/.425), 39
DH - Sweeney (.258/.349/.438), 33

Rotation
Gil Meche (R), 28
Odalis Perez (L), 29
Luke Hudson (R), 29
Jorge de la Rosa (L), 26
Brian Bannister (R), 26

Closer: Octavio Dotel

There is good news for this team. First, their offseason moves did help the team, as they added not only Meche, who while not great will be an improvement, but also Bannister. Also good is that they should be seeing improvement from young bright spot Mark Teahen as well as a rebound from last year from Mike Sweeney (who hit about .040 below career average, which of course dragged his OPS down by about .080 from career) and likely one for Odalis Perez too (who had an awful year last year, but should prove competent once again at some point).

The bad news is that they're still in a tough division. Had they been lucky enough to have gotten Joel Guzman in a trade when the Dodgers dumped him, they could have plugged in a piece of their lineup, rather than the near pitcher they have with Beroa's .592 OPS. Reggie Sanders was a waste of money too; trying with some of the journeymen the Dodgers picked up would have been cheaper and less hazardous. Also, their rotation still isn't all that good, but time will tell I guess. Maybe Gil Meche will finally come through. But don't count on it.

4 - Minnesota Twins (-8)
lineup
2- Mauer (.327/.429/.507), 24
3- Morneau (.321/.375/.559) , 25
4 - Castillo (.296/.358/.370), 31
5 - Punto (.290/.352/.373), 29
6 - Bartlett (.309/.367/.393), 27
7 - White (.246/.276/.345), 35
8 - Hunter (.278/.336/.490), 31
9 - Cuddyer (.284/.362/.504), 28
DH - Kubel (.241/.279/.386), 24

Rotation:
Johan Santana, L, 28
Boof Bonser, R, 25
Carlos Silva, R, 28
Matt Garza, R, 23
Glen Perkins, L, 24

Closer: Joe Nathan

Liriano was 11-3 with a 1.92 ERA as a starter. That's good, but he's out after Tommy John next year. While Santana and Bonser make the front of the rotation look good, the rest is less certain. The lineup features two guys with OBP under .300 last year, but 6 over .350, including Mauer's delightful .429. There is upside to Kubel, who has a small sample size and is only 24. At 5'11" and 200lb, you expect him to have some pop in his bat. He will probably be the biggest difference maker, other than a rebound from Rondell While (though that will likely be cancelled by other players regressing). It will be a tight division again, but the Twins get the shaft this time around.

3- Chicago White Sox (-5)
lineup:
2 - Pierzynski (.295/.333/.436), 30
3 - Konerko (.313/.381/.551), 31
4 - Iguchi (.281/.352/.422), 32
5 - Crede (.283/.323/.506), 29
6 - Uribe (.235/.257/.441), 28
7 - Podsednik (.261/.330/.353), 31
8 - Anderson (.225/.290/.359), 25
9 - Dye (.315/.385/.622), 33
DH - Thome (.288/.416/.598), 36

Rotation
Jose Contreras (R), 35
Mark Buehrle (L), 28
John Garland (R), 27
Javier Vasquez (R), 30
Gavin Floyd (R), 24

Closer: Bobby Jenks

The trade involving Freddie Garcia seemed weird. That and Ozzie Guillen wants to bunt more. OBP is problematic in this lineup; 5 players last year were below .350. Granted, they do have power, and they can probably count on Anderson to get a little better, but still. Juan Uribe, the out machine, couldn't get indicted so they have to deal with him making Juan Pierre look like Bobby Abreu. Otherwise, I like the rotation, though I am iffy on Jenks.

2- Cleveland Indians (-3)
2 - Martinez (.316/.391/.465), 28
3 - Blake (.282/.356/.479), 33
4 - Barfield (.280/.318/.423), 24
5 - Marte (.226/.287/.421), 23
6 - Peralta (.257/.323/.385), 24
7 - Dellucci (.292/.369/.530), 33
8 - Sizemore (.290/.375/.533), 24
9 - Nixon (.268/.373/.394), 33
(DH) Hafner (.308/.439/.629), 29

Rotation
Sabathia, L, 26
Westbrook, R, 29
Lee, L, 28
Byrd, R, 36
Sowers, L, 23

Closer: Joe Borowski

The Cleveland Indians were unlucky last year, and also had some defensive struggles, namely Victor Martinez, who threw out 18% of basestealers (don't get me started on how Brad Ausmas won the gold glove at catcher by not doing much better). Sizemore is an average CF (Rate2 of 99), and their middle infield (Peralta - 119 Rate2 at SS and Barfield 108 Rate2 and 2B) is actually quite good. Andy Marte should be at least average at third. Adding Borowski and Hernandez isn't a lot, but it does make the Cleveland bullpen look better, sadly.

Offensively, though, they're great in parts, and in their weaker parts, they can expect improvement because they're all under 25. Marte hitting .260 or more will make that lineup better, as will Hafner not getting hurt at the end of the year, and Barfield will likely improve his patience with more experience. Adding Trot Nixon and Dellucci gives them some guys who will get on base at a decent clip and hit the ball too, even if it means less Choo. This lineup also boasts 4 left-handers, 4 right-handers, and one switch-hitter, for what it's worth.

Division Champs - Detroit Tigers

2 - Pudge Rodriguez (.300/.332/.437), 35
3 - Sean Casey (.272/.336/.388), 32
4 - Polanco (.295/.329/.364), 31
5 - Inge (.253/.313/.463), 29
6 - Guillen (.320/.400/.519), 31
7 - Monroe (.255/.301/.482), 30
8 - Granderson (.260/.335/.438), 26
9 - Ordonez (.298/.350/.477), 33
DH - Sheffield (.298/.355/.450), 38

Rotation
Rogers, L, 42
Bonderman, R, 24
Robertson, L, 29
Maroth, L, 29
Verlander, R, 24

Closer: Todd Jones

This pitching staff is excellent, quite simply put. That is the name of the game, it seems. Bonderman and Verlander are two young fireballers, and Rodney and Zumaya make the bullpen look really nice.

The problem is that there are too many player that hit for decent average but their OPS isn't that much more than twice their batting average. Six, that's right, 6 members of this lineup had an OBP below .350 last year. Sean Casey may be a nice guy, but he's useless. Marcus Thames is working at first this spring, and he should eventually take the job (should in the sense of ideals, not in the sense of actuality).

A bit less luck defensively, though, and this team could be in trouble.

Happy March

2007-03-01T00:45:00.000-05:00

Indeed, the greatest month of the year.

Don't believe me? Ask this guy.

Or this guy.

Plate Discipline

2007-02-26T00:28:00.000-05:00

This is a virtue that stat geeks will extol constantly. There are a few things to look at in this:

1) Walk rate
2) Strikeout to walk rate
3) Pitches per plate appearance

The first two are easy to look at. Walk rate can demonstrate how much a player will take walks, but this is a function of multiple variables, namely: his eyesight, his judgement of the strike zone, and the amount of fear a pitcher has for him. Strikeout to walk can be useful in estimating the player's overall OBP; a player with a lot of strikeouts will not hit for high average, and so the number of walks may be outweighted by the low batting average that results. For example, Adam Dunn. On the other hand, a player who does not strike out yet still walks a lot demonstrates excellent patience (few swinging K's) and excellent knowledge of the strike zone (few times caught looking), and a great example of this is Jackie Robinson.

Now pitches per plate appearance is one of those stats that is not very well-known or advertised, but this is something one can think through. The more pitches a pitcher has to go through, the shorter he will last, even if he gets everyone out. After all, when a pitcher is removed before the 6th inning, that is when the worst relief pitchers have to come out of the bullpen. What was often the case with Brad Penny was that he would have good outings, but batters would foul off so many pitches that he would hit 100 pitches in the 4th and 5th innings. Hitting foul balls is a skill that is perhaps too underappreciated, but a player that can hit a foul ball can exhaust a pitcher easily.

Either way, here's the Dodgers' starting line, complete with P/PA for the past 6 seasons. Stop now and guess who will have the highest number here.

Ok, here.

Betemit	4.01
Furcal	3.89
Gonzo	3.87
Martin	3.77
Kent	3.62
Ethier	3.59
Pierre	3.44
Nomar	3.13

MLB average P/PA in2006: 3.76

The Dodgers lineup will be below average next year in taking pitches, although that could change once the injury bug bites. Nomar will not stay healthy all year, though so that number will get a little higher. Still, the Dodgers look to be losing many battles of pitch counts if they do not get on base more than the other team.

I was impressed though, to see Betemit with the best P/PA, despite not having a really high isolated patience (OBP-BA). Nonetheless, he can be a pest for the opposition if nothing else.

A Look at the Division - AL WEST

2007-02-26T00:14:00.000-05:00

Starring the Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and the Texas Rangers. Here, I make my first round of predictions that involve a DH. Offseason acquisitions are in italics.

Texas Rangers
Pos_Name__2006 Batting Line__Opening Day Age
2 - Laird (.296/.332/.473), 27
3 - Texiera (.282/.371/.514), 26
4 - Kinsler (.286/.347/.454), 24
5 - Blalock (.266/.325/.401), 26
6 - Young (.314/.356/.459), 30
7 - Wilkerson (.222/.306/.422), 29
8 - Lofton (.301/.360/.403), 39
9 - Cruz (.223/.261/.385), 26 or Sosa (.274/.345/.537 career), 38
DH - Catalonoto (.300/.376/.439), 32

Rotation
Milwood (R, 16-12, 4.52, Age: 32)
Padilla (R, 15-10, 4.50, Age: 29)
McCarthy (R, 4-7, 4.68, Age: 23)
Tejada (R, 5-5, 4.28, Age: 25)
Koronka (L, 7-7, 5.69, Age: 26)

Closer: Eric Gagne

Anaheim Angels
2 - Napoli (.228/.360/.455), 25
3 - undecided
4 - Kendrick (.285/.314/.416), 23
5 - Figgins (.267/.336/.376), 29
6 - Cabrera (.282/.335/.404), 32
7 - Anderson (.280/.323/.433), 34
8 - Matthews (.313/.371/.495), 32
9 - Guerrero (.329/.382/.552), 31
DH - Hillenbrand (.277/.313/.451), 31

Rotation
Lackey (R, 13-11 3.56, Age:28)
Escobar (R, 11-14, 3.61, Age: 30)
Santana (R, 16-8, 4.28, Age: 24)
Weaver (R, 11-2, 2.56, Age: 24)
Colon (R, 1-5, 5.11, Age: 33) or Sanders (L, 7-3 4.71, Age: 25)

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez

Seattle Mariners

2 - Johjima (.291/.332/.451), 30
3 - Sexson (.264/.338/. 504), 32
4 - Lopez (.282/.319/.405), 23
5 - Beltre (.268/.328/.465), 27
6 - Betancourt ( .289/.310/.403), 25
7 - Ibanez (.289/.353/.516), 34
8 - Ichiro (.322/.370/.416), 33
9 - Guillen (.216/.276/.398), 30
DH - Vidro (.289/.348/.395), 32

Rotation
Hernandez (R, 12-14, 4.52, age: 20)
Washburn (L, 8-14, 4.67, age:32)
Ramirez (L, 5-5, 4.48, age:27)
Batista (R, 11-8, 4.58, age 36)
Weaver (R, 8-14, 5.76, age: 30)

Closer: JJ Putz

Oakland Athletics

2 - Jason Kendall (.295/.367/.342), 32
3 - Dan Johnson (.234/.323/.381), 27
4 - Mark Ellis (.249/.319/.385), 29
5 - Eric Chavez (.241/.351/.435), 29
6 - Bobby Crosby (.229/.298/.338), 27
7 - Nick Swisher (.254/.372/.493), 26
8 - Mark Kotsay (.275/.332/.386), 31
9 - Milton Bradley (.276/.370/.447), 27

Rotation
Harden (R, 4-0 4.24, age 25)
Haren (R, 14-13 4.12, age 26)
Loaiza (R, 11-9 4.89, age 35)
Blanton (R, 16-12, 4.82, age 26)
Kennedy (L, 4-1, 2.31, age 27)

Closer: Huston Street

Analysis

This is a mixed bag as far as divisions go. The Angels have a great pitching staff, but their offense, apart from Vlad, is mediocre to miserable. The A's have a subpar offense, decent defense, and a good pitching staff. The Mariners have a better offense, as Guillen will be an upgrade from the black hole that was centerfield last year. Their pitching staff should be slightly better, as King Felix is a year older and Jeff Weaver might start getting lucky again with balls in play. The Rangers have added Gagne, who will be great unless he blows his arm out again, Kenny Lofton, Frank Catalonotto, and Sammy Sosa. Catalonotto will be the most useful of the new Rangers, and unless Sosa hits at least 30 bombs, the Rangers will break the streak of Schowalter blessings of World Series wins.

Predicted Standings

4) Texas Rangers (-18 games)
3) Seattle Mariners (-11 games)
2) Oakland A's (-10 games)
1) Anaheim Angels

A Look at the division - NL East

2007-02-21T20:39:00.000-05:00

Welcome to the land no longer dominated by the Braves. The Mets, Phillies, Marlins and Nationals live here too.

New this offseason:
Mets: Chan Ho Park, Moises Alou
Phillies: Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Wes Helms, Jayson Werth
Marlins: nobody significant
Braves: Craig Wilson, Mike Gonzalez
Nationals: Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, bunch of jobber pitchers

Ascending rankings

5th place - Washington Nationals

Let's face it, they're going to suck and suck hard. The Flordia Marlins had a bare bones team with excellent rookies, but the Nats just have aging crap. They've got a few hitters, but no pitching. They have two very good relief pitchers, and they might get to them when Patterson starts, but that's it. The lineup will hurt even more as Nick Johnson will be out a good while with that broken leg.

2 - Schneider
3 - Johnson
4 - Lopez
5 - Zimmerman
6 - Guzman (hopefully he gets replaced by Lopez and Belliard plays 2B)
7 - Church (I hope, for their sake)
8 - Logan
9 - Kearns

Rotation - John Patterson (R) and a bunch of pieces of crap

Closer - Chad Cordero

4th Place - Atlanta Braves
Just when I thought the Braves management was about to give up, they went and got Craig Wilson. But still, what the heck are they doing, particularly if they don't give the 2B starting job to Aybar and 1B job to Wilson. What they had last year was more than just an off-year; the club is breaking down a bit. Not using Betemit at short and trading off Marte was not a smart move, particularly with budget constraints and the level of talent they have.

Lineup
2 - McCann
3 - Wilson
4 - Aybar
5 - C. Jones
6 - Renteria
7 - Langerhans
8 - A. Jones
9 - Francoeur

Rotation
Smoltz (R)
Hudson (R)
Hampton (L)
Davies (R)
James (L)

Closer - Bob Wickman

3rd Place - Florida Marlins
But just barely over Atlanta. Still, I think the fish are prime candidates to pass by the tomohawks, mainly because they're a core group that will only get better. The question is whether Dontrelle Willis will have another great odd-numbered year. You can't discount this team, except for in centerfield.

2 - Olivo
3 - Jacobs
4 - Uggla
5 - Cabrera
6 - Ramirez
7 - Willingham
8 - Amezaga
9 - Hermida

Rotation:
Willis (L)
Olsen (L)
Johnson (R)
Sanchez (R)
Nolasco (R)

Closer - Tankersly

2nd Place - New York Mets
They'll be well in front of the Marlins, but will fall short when they're missing Pedro too much. Sure they did fine without him, and their offense can power them through quite a bit, but they can't expect to be that lucky with middle relief. Also, the rotation is either too old or too meh. But as a whole that's the best lineup in the NL.

Lineup
2 - LoDuca
3 - Delgado
4 - Valentin
5 - Wright
6 - Reyes
7 - Alou
8 - Beltran
9 - Green

Rotation
Glavine (L)
El Duque (R)
Maine (R)
Perez (L)
Park (R)

Closer - Billy Wagner

Philadelphia Phillies - Division Champs
That the Phillies got two decent starting pitchers gives them an extroardinary improvement. That was the only real weakness Philadelphia had last year, and they've got John Lieber as an extra guy too. As Cole Hammels develops, they should become very good. They might miss Abreu, though, and the Mets are certainly within the margin of error on this one.

2 - Barajas
3 - Howard
4 - Utley
5 - Helms
6 - Rollins
7 - Burrell
8 - Rowand
9 - Victorino

Rotation
Garcia (R)
Myers (R)
Hammels (L)
Eaton (R)
Moyer (L)

Closer - Tom Gordon

A look at the division - NL Central

2007-02-21T10:57:00.000-05:00

Two years ago, the NL West held the shameful title of the worst division in baseball, where the division champ struggled to top .500. This year, that honor goes to the NL Central, which is up for grabs to some degree.

Because I don't spend as much time on them, I'll go into a bit more detail here.

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup
Alfonso Soriano - CF
Matt Murton - LF
Derrek Lee - 1B
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Michael Barrett - C
Jacque Jones - RF
Mark Derosa - 2B
Cesar Izturis - SS

Projected Rotation
Carlos Zambrano (R)
Ted Lilly (L)
Jason Marquis (R)
Rich Hill (L)
Mark Prior (R)

Closer - Ryan Dempster

The Cubs began making a step in the right direction, but did not add a truly solid starting pitcher to the rotation. Granted, so much of the rotation was mediocre last year that Lilly and Marquis could help. The Cubs' defense should prove interesting with Soriano in center, and their offense should reap benefits from Sori as well, although he may be moved to the 2 instead of the 1 when it occurs to the Cubs that it is better to send up a masher with people on base. Chicago improved, but didn't make up for everything, and not everyone will stay healthy.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Lineup
Chris Duffy - CF
Jack Wilson - SS
Freddy Sanchez - 3B/2B
Jason Bay - LF
Adam Laroche - 1B
Xavier Nady - RF
Castillo/Bautista - 2B/3B
Ronny Paulino - C

Rotation
Duke (L)
Snell (R)
Armas (R)
Chacon (R)
someone

Closer - um...

Not a terrible team, but still not much to look forward to, other than an improved lineup and a better season from Zach Duke. Maybe Chacon will have better command. Or not.

Cincinatti Reds

Lineup
Freel - RF
Hatteburg - 1B
Griffey - CF
Dunn - LF
Ross - C
Encarnacion - 3B
Phillips - 2B
Gonzalez - SS

Rotation
Harang (R)
Arroyo (R)
jobber
jobber
jobber

Once again, the Reds have two useful starting pitchers, but even as good as their offense is, they need to be productive to help the 3-5 starters out. Dunn could go a long way if his luck changes on balls in play. Griffey's health is always a question, but seemingly he'll be able to play. Whether the park factors will continue to make Ross look beastly will also mean a lot to this club.

Houston Astros

Lineup
2 - Ausmus
3 - Berkman
4 - Biggio
5 - Ensberg
6 - Everett
7 - Lee
8 - Burke
9 - Scott

Rotation
Oswalt (R)
Jennins (R)
Williams (R)
Rodriguez (L)
Albers (R)

The Astros should just about balance out the rotation, and their lineup got a little better from adding Lee. There is a problem, though, with a middle infield where both guys threaten to post a sub-.300 OBP. Having two out machines in the lineup besides the pitcher is not all that great, and getting on base more would help given that the team has a couple of mashers (Lee, Berkman, Ensberg).

St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup
Eckstein - SS
Duncan - LF
Pujols - 1B
Edmonds - CF
Rolen - 3B
Encarnacion - RF
Kennedy - 2B
Y. Molina - C

Rotation
Carpenter - (R)
Wells (R)
Reyes (R)
Wainwright (R)
Looper (R)

Good News: Albert Pujols. Bad News: Kip Wells. Good news: Braden Looper isn't the setup man anymore. Bad news: neither is Adam Wainwright. Worse news: Braden Looper starting this year?! Good News: Hey, they get their world series rings!

Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup
2- Estrada
3 - Fielder
4 - Weeks
5 - Coskie
6 - Hardy
7 - Jenkins
8 - Hall
9 - Hart

Rotation
Capuano (L)
Sheets (R)
Suppan (R)
Bush (R)
Vargas (R)

This is a nice rotation, aside from Suppan. Suppan will suffer from the defense on this team. The lineup will have not a lot, but some potency, but the key really is Ben Sheets' health. If Sheets pitches 100 innings, repeat last year's performance. A good 150 innings gets them to .500 ball, and 200 innings wins the division.

Predicted Finish
well, honesly, you got me on 1-4. Really. Here's what I'll guess though.
Cardinals
Brewers (-1 game)
Astros (-2 games)
Cubs (-3 games)
Reds (-18 games)
Pirates (-20 games)

The error margins are as such where the top 4 are up for grabs entirely.

A Look at the Division - NL West

2007-02-18T14:45:00.000-05:00

Not only is it a good idea, but I think I might do this for the rest of the divisions.

Who's new: B. Molina, J. Lopez, M. Giles, Kouzmanoff, L. Gonzalez, Sledge, Pierre, Roberts, Taveras, Schmidt, Zito, Johnson, R. Lopez, Maddux, Wolf

Here are my predictions.

5th Place - Rockies
Their pitching is going to be a bit worse, which as always is bad news. The Giants won't be that much worse either. Further, everyone else's pitching got better, so it's gonna suck to be the Rockies.

4th Place - Giants
They lost Schmidt and got Zito. Bonds will continue to get worse, but will be the best LF in the NL until people stop walking him. They still need to rebuild, though, and it will be painful unless they have some amazing rookies, if they ever do that. They'll be 5-10 games better than the Rockies.

3rd Place - Diamondbacks
Not by too much, as they'll give the Dodgers and Padres a good run. They stepped up their pitching staff with Johnson, who isn't in the AL East anymore. Hernandez should rebound from an off-year last year, and this team may finish 2nd or higher.

2nd Place - Padres
They got Marcus Giles, sure, but he's clearly not suited to being a leadoff hitter (see Atlanta, 2006). Their offense still does not stand to pose a threat to anybody, and they lost Piazza to the A's. They did get Maddux, but Woody Williams had a good year and was a bit younger. Maddux will give them an ERA around 3.8, likely, but as he ages his control over the corners will fade more.

Division Champs - LA
Well, come on. As we all know, JD Drew's 100 RBI can be made up by anyone who shows up, but his times on base are a little trickier. The Dodgers have a lineup that can produce 1-8, and I am a bit optimistic about Pierre; I think his OBP will get to about .340 or so. Overall, it would seem that the Dodger outfield defense improved, as Drew replaced by Gonzalez is more than covered by Pierre replacing Lofton. Pierre has a bit of a better arm, but can get to balls much more capably. The pitching staff got better, and having Penny at the #3 spot gives the rotation very good depth, especially when Schmidt will probably be a 3.6 ERA pitcher this year as well. The depth of the organization is unmatched as well, with Billingsley and Kuo as the 5/6 starters, Laroche waiting at third, Loney waiting at first, Kemp waiting in the outfield, and pitchers such as Greg Miller, Mark Alexander and Scott Elbert.

This will be a close race, and the 1-2-3 teams in the division will all be within 5 games, leaving San Francisco in the dust. Barry Zito will win at most 14 games, and probably more like 11. Best candidates for 20 wins are Penny, Schmidt, Webb, Johnson, Peavy.

Jason Schmidt - A cut above?

2007-02-18T02:35:00.000-05:00

The first thing to notice is that I did these on my desktop in Excel rather than on my laptop in Minitab. The second thing to notice is that Schmidt is a much better pitcher than most of the Dodger Starters. For one thing, he's got a much better strikeout rate, even after last year featured his worst numbers in that category. As a result, he peaks a lot higher. His greater durability will help this area as well. What is particularly good is that in the time series chart, it is evident that he does not stay below 40 for long, meaning he does not slump much, but in fact he tends to stay mostly in above average territory.

Schmidt has some health concerns, and his injury would hurt the Dodgers the most. Also, Schmidt has to adjust to his new team. This will mean more offense (no difference here unless he pitches differently), but a new defense (better? we'll see), along with different park factors for home games (which may prove unfavorable). However, if he is healthy and maintains this level of performance, he should be considered the staff ace.

Here are the descriptive stats:

Starts: 32
Mean: 55.22
SE: 2.76
Min: 20
Q1: 48
Med: 53
Q3: 65.25
Max: 84

Brett Tomko

2007-02-17T20:25:00.000-05:00

Ladies and Gentlemen, Brett Tomko will not be starting for us.

Tomko could be a very good starter, but only if you get him on the upswing. As the time series chart shows, you could run a sine function on when he'll be good. As such, he's really better suited to the bullpen; at times, he's a setup man or fill-in closer. Otherwise, he should be behind Elmer Dessens, and you can do that with a bullpen. The histogram just looks silly on him, as he's just all over the place in terms of performance. He can be pretty good, but for the most part, he's not.

Here are his descriptive stats:

Starts: 15

Mean: 46.20

SE: 4.61

Min: 21

Q1: 28

Q2: 47

Q3: 61

Max: 74