Quick! Make some predictions!

Well, this will be a challenge, because one has to guess which players get playing time, who gets injured, who plays freakishly well, who loses everything, etc. But might as well jump out before everyone else. Even though Kyle Lohse is still unemployed.

National League - AL review to come later.

EAST
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Mets have a bit of a weakness at 2nd base, but other than the September collapse of Jose Reyes, they should own the division. Pedro looked like himself in September, at least by the numbers, and adding Santana should make that the best rotation at least in the division, if not the league. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either El Duque or Mike Pelfrey will fill out the rotation, probably quite successfully.

Philadelphia still lacks a lot of pitching depth behind Hammels, and in the absence of Aaron Rowand's career year, their offense will have to put in a little more effort to keep being awesome.
Atlanta is missing Andruw Jones and Kotsay is an injury risk, as is Chipper Jones, which is a shame. A full year of Chipper would be huge for Atlanta. The Braves do have the potential to outdo the Phillies if their offense keeps up, particularly with Renteria now in Detroit. Healthy years from Gonzalez and Soriano will also vastly help Atlanta, although Joey Devine would have been huge for Atlanta. Smoltz and Glavine are both older than dirt, though, so you never know there, and I don't think Mike Hampton will ever be healthy again. He probably forgot what baseballs look like.

The Marlins had an ugly year last year, but they should be getting Olson back from injury. They are down Cabrera, but they got Maybin, who will fill the centerfield hole - yeah, the Marlins look like they miss Juan Pierre. Their power-hitting middle infield, though, is still quite young.

The Nats made some nice acquisitions with Dukes and Milledge, but that doesn't change that they might actually start Christian Guzman at short still. On top of that, their pitching staff has some upside but is far too injury prone to inspire a lot of confidence.

Central
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Astros

At the very least, I'd say there's a split between the top 3 good teams and the bottom 3 bad teams.

The Brewers have had a lot of key components, they just seem to be able to overpay someone every year. Jeff Suppan last year, now Eric Gagne. Sheets in a contract year should be thrilling, and Capuano will be trying to rebound from a poor injury-riddled season where his opponents' average against jumped up from .260 to .280. Not to mention Braun, Fielder and Weeks are offensive forces that aren't making outs all over.

The Cubs won the division last year, and yes, Zambrano's ERA was half a point higher than his career mark. Who knows. Lou Pinella isn't terribly stupid, but I don't see two years in a row. Even if Ted Lilly is that good.

The Cardinals have room to improve, like having Carpenter pitch, but the problem is that won't be until July. Mulder might be alive, but we won't hear from him until May, and what will he pitch like? Mulder has not been effective since 2005 (sort of like Jeff Weaver). Glaus for Rolen is a lateral move, except Glaus might have more power left. Both will spend half the year on the DL. Izturis will make more outs, defensively and offensively, than Eckstein.

The Reds have Dusty Baker managing. Homer Bailey, the hope for their future, should pray that Baker gets arrested and tabbed as Barry Bonds' real supplier, preventing him from forcing Bailey to throw 140 pitches 3 games in a row. Baker will also despise Adam Dunn from clogging the bases with his three true outcome awesomeness.

The Pirates should get improvement from Jason Bay - not sure what happened there. Adam Laroche should probably knock a couple more out too. I still don't hold but so many high hopes for Pittsburgh, but we shall see.

The Astros are the stupidest organization in baseball. Tejada is an ok acquisition, except that he's getting old and isn't as good, and probably used steroids. Why they couldn't wait another day for the Mitchell Report is beyond me. But more importantly, their pitching is no longer a strength beyond Roy Oswalt.

WEST
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

Brandon Webb is good. Micah Owings is good. Randy Johnson might be healthy. But the Diamondbacks on top of that said, hell, let's get Dan Haren. The team is very dependent on its young core, with the reigning old dudes being crazy-haired Eric Byrnes, crazy bald man Kirk Gibson, and grumpy old coot Randy Johnson. That might put the D-Backs over the top.

Sure the Rockies got really hot at the end of last year, but they're good. Cook doesn't strike people out, but he's a groundball machine. Morales and Jiminez are up-and-coming. But let's not forget the superstars on the team: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton. Helton is like what Kevin Youkilis would be if he were 35 and not fat. They have the same beehive goatee thing too.

The Dodgers have upside that's dictated not just by their young players, but by Joe Torre. Hopefully, Torre won't do anything stupid like play Pierre over Ethier or play Nomar over Laroche. Additionally, they have all kinds of question marks like Kuroda, Jones, Furcal (who was still awesome defensively last year), Schmidt, Kuo, Brazoban, and Jeff Kent. They could potentially be a first place team, but nothing is certain.

The Padres plan to kill Jim Edmonds by making him run around their giant centerfield. Mark Prior has not pitched effectively since 2005, but he's worth a shot for $1,000,000. Randy Wolf has a nice curve and good K rate, and PETCO will keep the ball in the park, but he's still an injury risk too. I'm still optimistic that Hoffman will implode spectacularly around July or so.

The Giants have no position players. They overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who will still be better than anyone else on their team at hitting a baseball. Losing Bonds will make certain that the Giants don't get out of the cellar.

Yay

The Dodgers might not do anything stupid.

"There's potential for change, but as we look at the young players that we played a lot this past year, we're less likely to fill in [positions with veterans] as much as we have in the past and more likely we'll give the younger players a greater opportunity," Colletti said. "I'm curious to see how our young players, who really had a chance this past year to play full time, I'm curious to see what another year does."

My New Favorite Quote

"That's ridiculous. But that's the small-mindedness of Major League Baseball. They don't know what the hell they're doing. And if I get in, everybody will know that they don't know what the hell they're doing."

This is former Dodger pitcher and now independent instructor, Mike Marshall. Article here.

As of today, suggested all-star ballots

Now what makes an all-star? It seems that each year, it should reward those who are doing well, although it's really a popularity contest. Nonetheless, let's see what this would look like if it were for those who did well. The fans get to vote, and that impacts which position players start.

All-OBP TEAMS
To the highest OBP at each position:
NL
2 - Russell Martin (.386)
3 - Todd Helton (.460)
4 - Kelly Johnson (.392)
5 - Chipper Jones (.392) - it should be noted that Mark Ellis and Chad Tracy are higher here, but neither have played as much, although it's borderline whether Chipper qualifies
6 - Jose Reyes (.398)
7 - Barry Bonds (.485)
8 - Carlos Beltran (.390)
9 - Brad Hawpe (.411)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.412)
3 - Jim Thome (.470) - although he's not on the ballot due to Konerko. Also deserving the ballot but not on is Kevin Youkilis
4 - Brian Roberts (.421)
5 - Mike Lowell (.391) - would be Iwamura but for injury
6 - Derek Jeter (.399)
7 - Nick Swisher (.425)
8 - Reggie Willits (.419)
9 - Vladimir Guerrero (.460)

The ALL-SB team
no regard to CS
NL
2 - Martin (8)
3 - Jeff Conine and Lance Berkman (3)
4 - Kaz Matsui and Brandon Phillips (9)
5 - David Wright (11)
6 - Jose Reyes (30)
7 - Alfonso Soriano (8)
8 - Juan Pierre (18)
9 - Shane Victorino (16)

AL
2 - Mike Napoli (4)
3 - Gary Sheffield (7)
4 - Brian Roberts (19)
5 - Nick Punto (11)
6 - Julio Lugo (17)
7 - Carl Crawford (12)
8 - Grady Sizemore (17)
9 - Bobby Abreu (8)

The All-HR team
NL
2 - Russell Martin and Michael Barrett (7)
3 - Prince Fielder (20)
4 - Dan Uggla (12)
5 - Aramis Ramirez (13)
6 - JJ Hardy (16)
7 - Adam Dunn (14)
8 - Eric Byrnes (9)
9 - Ken Griffey Jr (12)

AL
2 - Victor Martinez (12)
3 - Justin Morneau (14)
4 - Ian Kinsler (10)
5 - Alex Rodriguez (20)
6 - Jhonny Peralta (11)
7 - Craig Monroe (9)
8 - Torii Hunter (12)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (13)

The All-AVG team
NL
2 - Bengie Molina (.320)
3 - Derrek Lee (.357)
4 - Chase Utley (.304)
5 - Miguel Cabrera (.319)
6 - Edgar Renteria (.335)
7 - Matt Holiday (.345)
8 - Willy Tavares (.327)
9 - Tony Gwynn Jr (.320)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.360)
3 - Kevin Youkilis (.346)
4 - Luis Castillo (.337)
5 - Mike Lowell (.332)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (.329)
7 - Carl Crawford (.295)
8 - Ichiro Suzuki (.333)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (.362)

Good Trade, Bad Trade

Now, we know that Ned Colletti doesn't make good trades, but that doesn't stop him from trying. He is still the general manager, after all. So I will suggest some players it would be good to trade for that would possibly be traded, and some bad ones.

Good Trades
Adam Dunn - as mentioned before, a three true outcome player, hits the ball very hard, dependable for 40 homers a year. Even though he's a free agent next year if traded, he's worth keeping on the team. Would try some sort of pitching package, maybe Beimel and Hendrickson, or something, but at most Andre Ethier.
Pat Burrell - Has another year on his contract and is still worth keeping around, hits the ball pretty hard and gets on base. Would offer Betemit and Gonzalez.
Carl Crawford - good player, power and speed type, also good defensively. Signed through 2008 with options for 2009 and 2010, and very low cost money wise. Will cost more in terms of personnel, though. Would offer Ethier/Kemp and LaRoche/Betemit.
Miguel Cabrera - good player, very young. Would be worth sending over 3b prospects as he would hold the position for years to come. Would offer LaRoche/Betemit and Ethier/Kemp and/or Kuo.
Ryan Church - gets on base, hits for a bit of power - would probably see more outside DC. Will not be a free agent for a while. Would offer Tomko, Hendrickson, and Luis Gonzalez with money.
Jason Bay - underpaid 5 tool lf guy, could play rf. Would require a lot in terms of personnel (see LaRoche, Andy and Ethier, Andre or Kemp, Matt), but Pittsburgh might like the gimmick of having both LaRoche brothers. Would offer LaRoche and Ethier/Kemp.
Alex Rios - power developing, young player, not a free agent for two more years. Would offer Ethier/Kemp and Randy Wolf, or just Brad Penny if they throw someone else in.
Torii Hunter - 30 hr power, good CF defense, worth keeping for a few more years, worth arbitration at least. Would offer Ethier and Betemit.

Bad Trades
Scott Rolen - offers no improvement at a position with two ML possibilities already, and will cost $12 million a year. No way.
Troy Glaus? Mike Lowell? - No no no. Glaus will be nice until he hurts himself again. Lowell won't help at all.
Anyone at third that isn't meant to be there for a long time and really good.
Anyone who will be a rental player you wouldn't offer arbitration to.
Ken Griffey Jr. - see Glaus, Troy
Jay Payton
Jeff Conine
Jay Gibbons
Corey Patterson
Anything that displaces Ethier and not Gonzalez or Pierre

That being said, we'll see what happens. Hopefully something good, but you never know.

On the coming trade for Adam Dunn

The Reds cannot simply wait for Griffey to get injured in order to fit the hot and mighty Josh Hamilton into their lineup. The fact is that they've got a surplus of talented outfielders, and just as they did with Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, they will trade for pitching, and the likely target is Adam Dunn, since his contract is up next year, and GM Wayne Krivsky has said he doesn't like strikeouts.

Dunn is what some call a Three True Outcomes (3TO) player, because when he's at the bat he'll either strike out, walk, or hit the ball out of the park. The downside for many is that he'll strike out so much that his batting average will suffer quite a bit. This is true, but what is unseen is that Dunn also walks a whole lot. Adam Dunn had only 131 hits last year, but he had 112 walks; that's 245 times on base, which is 9 more than this leadoff man who "gets on base an awful lot" and played 162 games last year. Of course, Dunn also hits the ball very hard when he makes contact; over his career, 363 of his 716 hits have been for extra bases, which is a bit over 50%, so those hits are generally quite useful.

The Dodgers desperately need a power bat, and they'd be willing to part with a pitcher for Dunn. If they're smart, they'll offer Randy Wolf, who appears to be making a great comeback season, and his contract is over next year. If they're slightly less smart, they'll offer Brad Penny, who is a bargain for the next few years for his performance. If they're really stupid, they'll offer Chad Billingsley for a rental of Dunn; Kuo's injury-ridden history would allow me to accept trading him, though.

All that would need to be done next would be to make a significant package for Andruw Jones that involves shipping out Juan Pierre, or a similar trade for Torii Hunter. Then sign one, based on where you want Matt Kemp to play, right or center field.

There's no way Colletti will trade for A-Rod; the guy is a Boras client with an opt-out clause, and Colletti will not feel safe with that.

Happy March

Indeed, the greatest month of the year.

Don't believe me? Ask this guy.

Or this guy.