NL Playoff Matchups

This will get very interesting, because nobody in the NL knows who they're playing yet, although we know three teams that will be in it. And we know the Cubs and Phillies play game 1 at home, and the Dodgers play game 3 at home. It comes down to one game for the wildcard, and here are the wildcard contenders (both of whom are the home team):

Milwaukee Brewers
vs Cubs
Angel Guzman (6.13 Career ERA) vs CC Sabathia

The Brewers are fighting for their postseason, while the Cubs are playing for the chance to play the Mets (4-2 cubs for the season series) instead of the Dodgers (5-2 cubs). The Cubs should prefer the Mets: in 6 games this season, they outscored them 41 to 26 while in 7 games they outscored the Dodgers by only 1 run, 19 to 18. That being said, the Brewers will be more than willing to let CC go 12 innings and 200 pitches if that's what it takes to win this one. Expect at least 8 innings for CC and a Brewers win. Day games in that park are also just plain weird because of the glass.

New York Mets
vs Florida Marlins
Scott Olsen vs Oliver Perez

Oliver Perez is one of those guys people think is pretty good but still find disappointment with his high walk totals and above average HR rate. The fact is though that the guy is 27 and isn't going to pitch that differently. Still, the Mets have had a solid lineup, although they face another solid one. I'd say edge Mets because of the way Olsen has declined. The Mets are overall beating the Marlins in the season series by a reasonable margin.

Tiebreaker Game
Seth McClung vs Pedro Martinez

Two or Three Years ago, Pedro would have made this a guaranteed win. As it is, he's not doing too well, but he is probably the Mets' best option. McClung isn't anything special, though, so if nothing else, it'll be a battle of sluggers, but given Pedro's homer rate this year, I'd have to say edge Brewers.

So since I'm predicting Brewers for the wild card, here's who faces off then:

Dodgers vs Cubs

Brewers vs Phillies


1) Dodgers vs Cubs
Rotation

Game 1: Derek Lowe vs Ryan Dempster
Game 2: Chad Billingsley vs Carlos Zambrano
Game 3: Rich Harden vs Hiroki Kuroda
Game 4: Ted Lilly vs Greg Maddux

Up until Lilly vs Maddux, this looks like it's fairly even, perhaps even favoring LA. Not only has Billingsley had a good year, but Zambrano hasn't pitched since Sept 2 due to shoulder problems. Odds are that if he does pitch that he's not all better, and if that's the case he'll be down some velocity, have flatter pitches, and be easier to hit.

Starting Lineup:

LF: Alfonso Soriano vs Manny Ramirez
CF: Jim Edmonds vs Matt Kemp
RF: Kosuke Fukudome vs Andre Ethier

Manny is a better hitter than Sori, with better OBP skills. Soriano, though, has the defensive edge. Something that you never thought you'd hear 5 years ago. The reverse is probably true in center field, although Edmonds ability to read the ball probably gives him a slight defensive edge. In Right, though, no contest: all about Ethier.

1B: Derrek Lee vs James Loney
2B: Mark DeRosa vs Jeff Kent/Blake DeWitt
3B: Aramis Ramirez vs Casey Blake/Blake DeWitt
SS: Ryan Theriot vs Rafael Furcal
C: Geovany Soto vs Russell Martin

The only clear advantage for the Dodgers would be if Rafael Furcal really is healthy. If he can hold up, he's definitely got it. Lee and A-Ram are top corner men, good as Loney and Blake might be. DeRosa has done well as a Cub, and will probably continue to do so. Soto has emerged as a good young catcher and has hit for power more, though Martin has honed his on-base skills so well that it's really hard to discount him.

The Cubs have a bit of an edge on offense. It will probably come down to bullpens and luck to determine this series. I'll be optimistic and say Dodgers in 5, though.


Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers

Two teams with power hitting lineups and iffy pitching depth. The Phillies had Brad Lidge, the Brewers had Eric Gagne. I don't care about this one as much, and it's late. Just guessing, though, I'd say edge to Philadelphia. They hit for average and get on base more. Phillies in 4, because CC won't start against Hamels.

Infield Options 2008

The Dodgers have one sure bet for the infield in 2008: James Loney. Beyond him, much is up in the air.

Second Base
Free Agents: Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Ray Durham
In House: Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young

As it is, Ellis is the leading candidate now for a free agent 2B signing because of Orlando Hudson's season-ending injury. Picking up Hudson would be a risky move - you don't know what he's going to do offensively. Felipe Lopez would be the low buy, and Ray Durham is an old dude who can't play defense, but at least he can get on base.

DeWitt is probably still a contender for the third base job, but don't forget Delwyn Young. Larry Bowa thinks he can play second, so that can't be ruled out yet.

Shortstop
Free Agents: Rafael Furcal, Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria
In House: Chin-Lung Hu, Russell Martin

Let's throw this out there now: Martin is not moving from behind the plate unless Saltalamacchia, etc falls in the Dodgers lap. If they were willing to trade Lowe at the deadline, this might be feasible, but now, not so much.

Furcal is an injury question. After being out almost all season and having an abysmal year at the plate (although being amazing when healthy), he's likely to take a 1 year deal. Provided he's happy in LA, I can see him staying, so it would appear he's most likely to remain a Dodger. The real question is who plays in September - if it's Furcal, then it's likely he comes back. If Furcal is hurt and Hu gets a chance and does well, Furcal will get offered arbitration so LA gets draft picks, and Hu becomes the starting shortstop. Neither other free agent option looks good, unless Hu is particularly bad in September and Furcal doesn't look like he'll be healthy soon.

Third Base
Free agents: Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Mark Teixiera*,
In House: Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin
Trade: Adrian Beltre

I mention Beltre because it seems like a DePo correction that he could enjoy, and it is true that Beltre is a good defensive 3B as well as a decent hitter. I don't see LA giving up players for him for just a year, though, but that could all depend on what Colletti is thinking on a particular day. Nomar keeps getting hurt, but it looks like he can still hit some, so he remains a viable option at third. Blake is gone. Teixiera has played 15 games at the major league level at third base, the position where he was originally drafted. He's a very good defensive first baseman, and I would be surprised if he switched back. DeWitt seems like he'll get a starting job next year, somehow, but I'm not sure where; third would seem likely.

Most Likely
Loney
DeWitt
Furcal
Nomar

This would be the most status quo of the lineups, and would make sense with DeWitt playing 2nd in Vegas, even with LaRoche gone. The goal with Furcal would be to get him back at a discount for one year, but it may only be down to about $8 million. Nomar will probably re-sign for less than he's making now, but I would guess a 2 year $12 million deal.

Loney
DeWitt
Guzman
Nomar

As much as I don't want Christian Guzman and I know Vin Scully likes saying "O-Dog," Torre and co like DeWitt more than Hu, so I'd expect to see Nomar at third and DeWitt at 2nd, and a stopgap SS in the meantime, if Fucal doesn't stay. I really don't see LA suddenly favoring Hu after letting Angel Berroa have a job for so long, unless Logan White is the new GM.

Manny?

Well we got Manny Ramirez, but it did cost us Andy LaRoche.

One thing though: Manny says he wants to stay in LA. He likes the relaxed atmosphere, being loved by fans, but having his peace off the field. At 35 he wouldn't get a 4 or 5 year contract, but one could see a 3 year deal easily to keep him here. McCourt is probably excited enough to green light Colletti to extend him, even with agent Boras.

So what does that mean?

If we keep Manny, we'll need to retain Furcal or pay for a 3B/2B. Our other viable choice would be Orlando Hudson. We could also expect about a .700 OPS from each of those players. Tony Abreu presumably would still have healthy issues.

We would also want as many homegrown options as possible. Which could mean, surprise, DY plays second. Remember also that Xavier Paul will be ready soon, so he or Ethier could be traded. It could also mean we'd find a way to accept Jones and or Pierre as a sunk cost and then just try to dump them or trade them off and pay only most of their salary.

Lineup in 2009

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
DeWitt
Hu

This actually doesn't look bad, although it does depend a good bit on Furcal's health. Otherwise, we'll see:

Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Loney
Abreu/DY
DeWitt
Hu

So Furcal looks like a good pickup. If no Manny or Furcal, then we'll probably get Sabathia or Sheets, which gives us this rotation:

Sabathia
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw

which is just plain sick, and would let me feel better about the lineup.

The Future

Because why be satisfied with the present. Currently, the Dodgers are committed to the following players next year:

2009
C - Russell Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - (Blake DeWitt)
SS - (Chin-Lung Hu)
3B - (Andy LaRoche)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Matt Kemp

SP - Brad Penny
SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Jason Schmidt
SP - Clayton Kershaw

BN - Juan Pierre (OF)
BN - Tony Abreu (INF)
BN - Young/Repko (OF)
BN - Lucas May (C)
BN - Nomar Garciaparra (INF/PH)
BN - lefty PH

RP - Jonathan Broxton
RP - Yhency Brazoban
RP - Scott Proctor
RP - Cory Wade
RP - Hong-Chi Kuo
RP - Joe Beimel

Well first, the Red is speculation on re-signing, green is speculation on call-ups for players who don't have major league service time yet, and blue is speculation on who we'd get from NRIs. The problem with this estimate is that it assumes no Ned factor. Colletti, despite being the incumbent, keeps wanting to make a huge signing in the offseason. He blew a bunch of money on Pierre and Schmidt, Andruw Jones last year.

Leaving via free agency then would be:
Derek Lowe
Esteban Loaiza
Rafael Furcal

The Dodgers will offer Lowe and Furcal arbitration, unless they're insane, netting them 5 first round draft picks, potentially.

Quick! Make some predictions!

Well, this will be a challenge, because one has to guess which players get playing time, who gets injured, who plays freakishly well, who loses everything, etc. But might as well jump out before everyone else. Even though Kyle Lohse is still unemployed.

National League - AL review to come later.

EAST
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Mets have a bit of a weakness at 2nd base, but other than the September collapse of Jose Reyes, they should own the division. Pedro looked like himself in September, at least by the numbers, and adding Santana should make that the best rotation at least in the division, if not the league. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either El Duque or Mike Pelfrey will fill out the rotation, probably quite successfully.

Philadelphia still lacks a lot of pitching depth behind Hammels, and in the absence of Aaron Rowand's career year, their offense will have to put in a little more effort to keep being awesome.
Atlanta is missing Andruw Jones and Kotsay is an injury risk, as is Chipper Jones, which is a shame. A full year of Chipper would be huge for Atlanta. The Braves do have the potential to outdo the Phillies if their offense keeps up, particularly with Renteria now in Detroit. Healthy years from Gonzalez and Soriano will also vastly help Atlanta, although Joey Devine would have been huge for Atlanta. Smoltz and Glavine are both older than dirt, though, so you never know there, and I don't think Mike Hampton will ever be healthy again. He probably forgot what baseballs look like.

The Marlins had an ugly year last year, but they should be getting Olson back from injury. They are down Cabrera, but they got Maybin, who will fill the centerfield hole - yeah, the Marlins look like they miss Juan Pierre. Their power-hitting middle infield, though, is still quite young.

The Nats made some nice acquisitions with Dukes and Milledge, but that doesn't change that they might actually start Christian Guzman at short still. On top of that, their pitching staff has some upside but is far too injury prone to inspire a lot of confidence.

Central
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Astros

At the very least, I'd say there's a split between the top 3 good teams and the bottom 3 bad teams.

The Brewers have had a lot of key components, they just seem to be able to overpay someone every year. Jeff Suppan last year, now Eric Gagne. Sheets in a contract year should be thrilling, and Capuano will be trying to rebound from a poor injury-riddled season where his opponents' average against jumped up from .260 to .280. Not to mention Braun, Fielder and Weeks are offensive forces that aren't making outs all over.

The Cubs won the division last year, and yes, Zambrano's ERA was half a point higher than his career mark. Who knows. Lou Pinella isn't terribly stupid, but I don't see two years in a row. Even if Ted Lilly is that good.

The Cardinals have room to improve, like having Carpenter pitch, but the problem is that won't be until July. Mulder might be alive, but we won't hear from him until May, and what will he pitch like? Mulder has not been effective since 2005 (sort of like Jeff Weaver). Glaus for Rolen is a lateral move, except Glaus might have more power left. Both will spend half the year on the DL. Izturis will make more outs, defensively and offensively, than Eckstein.

The Reds have Dusty Baker managing. Homer Bailey, the hope for their future, should pray that Baker gets arrested and tabbed as Barry Bonds' real supplier, preventing him from forcing Bailey to throw 140 pitches 3 games in a row. Baker will also despise Adam Dunn from clogging the bases with his three true outcome awesomeness.

The Pirates should get improvement from Jason Bay - not sure what happened there. Adam Laroche should probably knock a couple more out too. I still don't hold but so many high hopes for Pittsburgh, but we shall see.

The Astros are the stupidest organization in baseball. Tejada is an ok acquisition, except that he's getting old and isn't as good, and probably used steroids. Why they couldn't wait another day for the Mitchell Report is beyond me. But more importantly, their pitching is no longer a strength beyond Roy Oswalt.

WEST
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

Brandon Webb is good. Micah Owings is good. Randy Johnson might be healthy. But the Diamondbacks on top of that said, hell, let's get Dan Haren. The team is very dependent on its young core, with the reigning old dudes being crazy-haired Eric Byrnes, crazy bald man Kirk Gibson, and grumpy old coot Randy Johnson. That might put the D-Backs over the top.

Sure the Rockies got really hot at the end of last year, but they're good. Cook doesn't strike people out, but he's a groundball machine. Morales and Jiminez are up-and-coming. But let's not forget the superstars on the team: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton. Helton is like what Kevin Youkilis would be if he were 35 and not fat. They have the same beehive goatee thing too.

The Dodgers have upside that's dictated not just by their young players, but by Joe Torre. Hopefully, Torre won't do anything stupid like play Pierre over Ethier or play Nomar over Laroche. Additionally, they have all kinds of question marks like Kuroda, Jones, Furcal (who was still awesome defensively last year), Schmidt, Kuo, Brazoban, and Jeff Kent. They could potentially be a first place team, but nothing is certain.

The Padres plan to kill Jim Edmonds by making him run around their giant centerfield. Mark Prior has not pitched effectively since 2005, but he's worth a shot for $1,000,000. Randy Wolf has a nice curve and good K rate, and PETCO will keep the ball in the park, but he's still an injury risk too. I'm still optimistic that Hoffman will implode spectacularly around July or so.

The Giants have no position players. They overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who will still be better than anyone else on their team at hitting a baseball. Losing Bonds will make certain that the Giants don't get out of the cellar.

Giving up on 2007 officially

So, what was your opinion of Kingman's Performance?

I'm raising the white flag. Unofficially, I did it as soon as Colletti revealed his true level of idiocy in signing Juan Pierre. But now, after losing a doubleheader to the goddamned Rockies, I'm giving up.

I was furious when Colletti signed Pierre, because Pierre had Kenny Lofton's defense and less patience at the plate. He steals bases and admittedly he did have a good percentage this year, but still, he's not worth $9 million per year. Not when you have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Delwyn Young, Jason Repko, and Jayson Werth already there. Sure, get Gonzalez, but Pierre?

But getting off a rant, let's consider this: The Dodgers are currently 79-72. With 11 games left, the best they can possibly get to is 90-72. The Padres are leading the Wild Card at 83-67. If San Diego plays .500 ball, which is realistic but slightly optimistic, they can go 89-73. The Dodgers, then, could at worst go 10-1 if they want to have a chance at the postseason. I don't see it happening. As much as I'd love to be wrong, I'm more interested in how late their draft pick will be now - I know it will be before 22.

On the coming trade for Adam Dunn

The Reds cannot simply wait for Griffey to get injured in order to fit the hot and mighty Josh Hamilton into their lineup. The fact is that they've got a surplus of talented outfielders, and just as they did with Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, they will trade for pitching, and the likely target is Adam Dunn, since his contract is up next year, and GM Wayne Krivsky has said he doesn't like strikeouts.

Dunn is what some call a Three True Outcomes (3TO) player, because when he's at the bat he'll either strike out, walk, or hit the ball out of the park. The downside for many is that he'll strike out so much that his batting average will suffer quite a bit. This is true, but what is unseen is that Dunn also walks a whole lot. Adam Dunn had only 131 hits last year, but he had 112 walks; that's 245 times on base, which is 9 more than this leadoff man who "gets on base an awful lot" and played 162 games last year. Of course, Dunn also hits the ball very hard when he makes contact; over his career, 363 of his 716 hits have been for extra bases, which is a bit over 50%, so those hits are generally quite useful.

The Dodgers desperately need a power bat, and they'd be willing to part with a pitcher for Dunn. If they're smart, they'll offer Randy Wolf, who appears to be making a great comeback season, and his contract is over next year. If they're slightly less smart, they'll offer Brad Penny, who is a bargain for the next few years for his performance. If they're really stupid, they'll offer Chad Billingsley for a rental of Dunn; Kuo's injury-ridden history would allow me to accept trading him, though.

All that would need to be done next would be to make a significant package for Andruw Jones that involves shipping out Juan Pierre, or a similar trade for Torii Hunter. Then sign one, based on where you want Matt Kemp to play, right or center field.

There's no way Colletti will trade for A-Rod; the guy is a Boras client with an opt-out clause, and Colletti will not feel safe with that.

Last one

AL EAST

Yanks
Sox
Blue Jays
O's
D-Rays

Unless everything collapses for Boston, the Orioles pitching staff and lineup depth pays off, and Tampa doesn't suddenly learn what success looks like. I'd put Baltimore as possible for a switch with Boston, but give them about a 3% chance of that, thinking optimistically. I do think the O's will win 75-80 at least.

But that's all this division gets.

Predictions for 2007 - AL Central

Now this is the hard one. This will require more thought than any other division I have had to consider. Here goes.

New players
Tigers: Gary Sheffield
White Sox: Gavin Floyd
Injuns: Josh Barfield, David Delucci, Trot Nixon, Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez
Twins: Jeff Cirillo
Royals: Gil Meche, Octavio Dotel, Brian Bannister

Predicted order of finish

5th Place: Kansas City Royals (-20)

Lineup:
2 - Buck (.245/.306/.396), 26
3 - Shealy (.277/.333/.450), 27
4 - Grudzielanek (.297/.331/.409), 36
5 - Teahen (.290/.357/.517), 25
6 - Beroa (.234/.259/.333), 29
7 - Brown (.287/.358/.457), 32
8 - DeJesus (.295/.364/.446), 27
9 - Sanders (.246/.304/.425), 39
DH - Sweeney (.258/.349/.438), 33

Rotation
Gil Meche (R), 28
Odalis Perez (L), 29
Luke Hudson (R), 29
Jorge de la Rosa (L), 26
Brian Bannister (R), 26

Closer: Octavio Dotel

There is good news for this team. First, their offseason moves did help the team, as they added not only Meche, who while not great will be an improvement, but also Bannister. Also good is that they should be seeing improvement from young bright spot Mark Teahen as well as a rebound from last year from Mike Sweeney (who hit about .040 below career average, which of course dragged his OPS down by about .080 from career) and likely one for Odalis Perez too (who had an awful year last year, but should prove competent once again at some point).

The bad news is that they're still in a tough division. Had they been lucky enough to have gotten Joel Guzman in a trade when the Dodgers dumped him, they could have plugged in a piece of their lineup, rather than the near pitcher they have with Beroa's .592 OPS. Reggie Sanders was a waste of money too; trying with some of the journeymen the Dodgers picked up would have been cheaper and less hazardous. Also, their rotation still isn't all that good, but time will tell I guess. Maybe Gil Meche will finally come through. But don't count on it.


4 - Minnesota Twins (-8)
lineup
2- Mauer (.327/.429/.507), 24
3- Morneau (.321/.375/.559) , 25
4 - Castillo (.296/.358/.370), 31
5 - Punto (.290/.352/.373), 29
6 - Bartlett (.309/.367/.393), 27
7 - White (.246/.276/.345), 35
8 - Hunter (.278/.336/.490), 31
9 - Cuddyer (.284/.362/.504), 28
DH - Kubel (.241/.279/.386), 24

Rotation:
Johan Santana, L, 28
Boof Bonser, R, 25
Carlos Silva, R, 28
Matt Garza, R, 23
Glen Perkins, L, 24

Closer: Joe Nathan

Liriano was 11-3 with a 1.92 ERA as a starter. That's good, but he's out after Tommy John next year. While Santana and Bonser make the front of the rotation look good, the rest is less certain. The lineup features two guys with OBP under .300 last year, but 6 over .350, including Mauer's delightful .429. There is upside to Kubel, who has a small sample size and is only 24. At 5'11" and 200lb, you expect him to have some pop in his bat. He will probably be the biggest difference maker, other than a rebound from Rondell While (though that will likely be cancelled by other players regressing). It will be a tight division again, but the Twins get the shaft this time around.

3- Chicago White Sox (-5)
lineup:
2 - Pierzynski (.295/.333/.436), 30
3 - Konerko (.313/.381/.551), 31
4 - Iguchi (.281/.352/.422), 32
5 - Crede (.283/.323/.506), 29
6 - Uribe (.235/.257/.441), 28
7 - Podsednik (.261/.330/.353), 31
8 - Anderson (.225/.290/.359), 25
9 - Dye (.315/.385/.622), 33
DH - Thome (.288/.416/.598), 36

Rotation
Jose Contreras (R), 35
Mark Buehrle (L), 28
John Garland (R), 27
Javier Vasquez (R), 30
Gavin Floyd (R), 24

Closer: Bobby Jenks

The trade involving Freddie Garcia seemed weird. That and Ozzie Guillen wants to bunt more. OBP is problematic in this lineup; 5 players last year were below .350. Granted, they do have power, and they can probably count on Anderson to get a little better, but still. Juan Uribe, the out machine, couldn't get indicted so they have to deal with him making Juan Pierre look like Bobby Abreu. Otherwise, I like the rotation, though I am iffy on Jenks.


2- Cleveland Indians (-3)
2 - Martinez (.316/.391/.465), 28
3 - Blake (.282/.356/.479), 33
4 - Barfield (.280/.318/.423), 24
5 - Marte (.226/.287/.421), 23
6 - Peralta (.257/.323/.385), 24
7 - Dellucci (.292/.369/.530), 33
8 - Sizemore (.290/.375/.533), 24
9 - Nixon (.268/.373/.394), 33
(DH) Hafner (.308/.439/.629), 29

Rotation
Sabathia, L, 26
Westbrook, R, 29
Lee, L, 28
Byrd, R, 36
Sowers, L, 23

Closer: Joe Borowski

The Cleveland Indians were unlucky last year, and also had some defensive struggles, namely Victor Martinez, who threw out 18% of basestealers (don't get me started on how Brad Ausmas won the gold glove at catcher by not doing much better). Sizemore is an average CF (Rate2 of 99), and their middle infield (Peralta - 119 Rate2 at SS and Barfield 108 Rate2 and 2B) is actually quite good. Andy Marte should be at least average at third. Adding Borowski and Hernandez isn't a lot, but it does make the Cleveland bullpen look better, sadly.

Offensively, though, they're great in parts, and in their weaker parts, they can expect improvement because they're all under 25. Marte hitting .260 or more will make that lineup better, as will Hafner not getting hurt at the end of the year, and Barfield will likely improve his patience with more experience. Adding Trot Nixon and Dellucci gives them some guys who will get on base at a decent clip and hit the ball too, even if it means less Choo. This lineup also boasts 4 left-handers, 4 right-handers, and one switch-hitter, for what it's worth.

Division Champs - Detroit Tigers

2 - Pudge Rodriguez (.300/.332/.437), 35
3 - Sean Casey (.272/.336/.388), 32
4 - Polanco (.295/.329/.364), 31
5 - Inge (.253/.313/.463), 29
6 - Guillen (.320/.400/.519), 31
7 - Monroe (.255/.301/.482), 30
8 - Granderson (.260/.335/.438), 26
9 - Ordonez (.298/.350/.477), 33
DH - Sheffield (.298/.355/.450), 38

Rotation
Rogers, L, 42
Bonderman, R, 24
Robertson, L, 29
Maroth, L, 29
Verlander, R, 24

Closer: Todd Jones

This pitching staff is excellent, quite simply put. That is the name of the game, it seems. Bonderman and Verlander are two young fireballers, and Rodney and Zumaya make the bullpen look really nice.

The problem is that there are too many player that hit for decent average but their OPS isn't that much more than twice their batting average. Six, that's right, 6 members of this lineup had an OBP below .350 last year. Sean Casey may be a nice guy, but he's useless. Marcus Thames is working at first this spring, and he should eventually take the job (should in the sense of ideals, not in the sense of actuality).

A bit less luck defensively, though, and this team could be in trouble.

A Look at the Division - AL WEST

Starring the Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and the Texas Rangers. Here, I make my first round of predictions that involve a DH. Offseason acquisitions are in italics.

Texas Rangers
Pos_Name__2006 Batting Line__Opening Day Age
2 - Laird (.296/.332/.473), 27
3 - Texiera (.282/.371/.514), 26
4 - Kinsler (.286/.347/.454), 24
5 - Blalock (.266/.325/.401), 26
6 - Young (.314/.356/.459), 30
7 - Wilkerson (.222/.306/.422), 29
8 - Lofton (.301/.360/.403), 39
9 - Cruz (.223/.261/.385), 26 or Sosa (.274/.345/.537 career), 38
DH - Catalonoto (.300/.376/.439), 32

Rotation
Milwood (R, 16-12, 4.52, Age: 32)
Padilla (R, 15-10, 4.50, Age: 29)
McCarthy (R, 4-7, 4.68, Age: 23)
Tejada (R, 5-5, 4.28, Age: 25)
Koronka (L, 7-7, 5.69, Age: 26)

Closer: Eric Gagne

Anaheim Angels
2 - Napoli (.228/.360/.455), 25
3 - undecided
4 - Kendrick (.285/.314/.416), 23
5 - Figgins (.267/.336/.376), 29
6 - Cabrera (.282/.335/.404), 32
7 - Anderson (.280/.323/.433), 34
8 - Matthews (.313/.371/.495), 32
9 - Guerrero (.329/.382/.552), 31
DH - Hillenbrand (.277/.313/.451), 31

Rotation
Lackey (R, 13-11 3.56, Age:28)
Escobar (R, 11-14, 3.61, Age: 30)
Santana (R, 16-8, 4.28, Age: 24)
Weaver (R, 11-2, 2.56, Age: 24)
Colon (R, 1-5, 5.11, Age: 33) or Sanders (L, 7-3 4.71, Age: 25)

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez

Seattle Mariners

2 - Johjima (.291/.332/.451), 30
3 - Sexson (.264/.338/. 504), 32
4 - Lopez (.282/.319/.405), 23
5 - Beltre (.268/.328/.465), 27
6 - Betancourt ( .289/.310/.403), 25
7 - Ibanez (.289/.353/.516), 34
8 - Ichiro (.322/.370/.416), 33
9 - Guillen (.216/.276/.398), 30
DH - Vidro (.289/.348/.395), 32

Rotation
Hernandez (R, 12-14, 4.52, age: 20)
Washburn (L, 8-14, 4.67, age:32)
Ramirez (L, 5-5, 4.48, age:27)
Batista (R, 11-8, 4.58, age 36)
Weaver (R, 8-14, 5.76, age: 30)

Closer: JJ Putz

Oakland Athletics

2 - Jason Kendall (.295/.367/.342), 32
3 - Dan Johnson (.234/.323/.381), 27
4 - Mark Ellis (.249/.319/.385), 29
5 - Eric Chavez (.241/.351/.435), 29
6 - Bobby Crosby (.229/.298/.338), 27
7 - Nick Swisher (.254/.372/.493), 26
8 - Mark Kotsay (.275/.332/.386), 31
9 - Milton Bradley (.276/.370/.447), 27

Rotation
Harden (R, 4-0 4.24, age 25)
Haren (R, 14-13 4.12, age 26)
Loaiza (R, 11-9 4.89, age 35)
Blanton (R, 16-12, 4.82, age 26)
Kennedy (L, 4-1, 2.31, age 27)

Closer: Huston Street

Analysis

This is a mixed bag as far as divisions go. The Angels have a great pitching staff, but their offense, apart from Vlad, is mediocre to miserable. The A's have a subpar offense, decent defense, and a good pitching staff. The Mariners have a better offense, as Guillen will be an upgrade from the black hole that was centerfield last year. Their pitching staff should be slightly better, as King Felix is a year older and Jeff Weaver might start getting lucky again with balls in play. The Rangers have added Gagne, who will be great unless he blows his arm out again, Kenny Lofton, Frank Catalonotto, and Sammy Sosa. Catalonotto will be the most useful of the new Rangers, and unless Sosa hits at least 30 bombs, the Rangers will break the streak of Schowalter blessings of World Series wins.

Predicted Standings

4) Texas Rangers (-18 games)
3) Seattle Mariners (-11 games)
2) Oakland A's (-10 games)
1) Anaheim Angels

A Look at the division - NL East

Welcome to the land no longer dominated by the Braves. The Mets, Phillies, Marlins and Nationals live here too.

New this offseason:
Mets: Chan Ho Park, Moises Alou
Phillies: Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Wes Helms, Jayson Werth
Marlins: nobody significant
Braves: Craig Wilson, Mike Gonzalez
Nationals: Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, bunch of jobber pitchers

Ascending rankings

5th place - Washington Nationals

Let's face it, they're going to suck and suck hard. The Flordia Marlins had a bare bones team with excellent rookies, but the Nats just have aging crap. They've got a few hitters, but no pitching. They have two very good relief pitchers, and they might get to them when Patterson starts, but that's it. The lineup will hurt even more as Nick Johnson will be out a good while with that broken leg.

2 - Schneider
3 - Johnson
4 - Lopez
5 - Zimmerman
6 - Guzman (hopefully he gets replaced by Lopez and Belliard plays 2B)
7 - Church (I hope, for their sake)
8 - Logan
9 - Kearns

Rotation - John Patterson (R) and a bunch of pieces of crap

Closer - Chad Cordero

4th Place - Atlanta Braves
Just when I thought the Braves management was about to give up, they went and got Craig Wilson. But still, what the heck are they doing, particularly if they don't give the 2B starting job to Aybar and 1B job to Wilson. What they had last year was more than just an off-year; the club is breaking down a bit. Not using Betemit at short and trading off Marte was not a smart move, particularly with budget constraints and the level of talent they have.

Lineup
2 - McCann
3 - Wilson
4 - Aybar
5 - C. Jones
6 - Renteria
7 - Langerhans
8 - A. Jones
9 - Francoeur

Rotation
Smoltz (R)
Hudson (R)
Hampton (L)
Davies (R)
James (L)

Closer - Bob Wickman

3rd Place - Florida Marlins
But just barely over Atlanta. Still, I think the fish are prime candidates to pass by the tomohawks, mainly because they're a core group that will only get better. The question is whether Dontrelle Willis will have another great odd-numbered year. You can't discount this team, except for in centerfield.

2 - Olivo
3 - Jacobs
4 - Uggla
5 - Cabrera
6 - Ramirez
7 - Willingham
8 - Amezaga
9 - Hermida

Rotation:
Willis (L)
Olsen (L)
Johnson (R)
Sanchez (R)
Nolasco (R)

Closer - Tankersly

2nd Place - New York Mets
They'll be well in front of the Marlins, but will fall short when they're missing Pedro too much. Sure they did fine without him, and their offense can power them through quite a bit, but they can't expect to be that lucky with middle relief. Also, the rotation is either too old or too meh. But as a whole that's the best lineup in the NL.

Lineup
2 - LoDuca
3 - Delgado
4 - Valentin
5 - Wright
6 - Reyes
7 - Alou
8 - Beltran
9 - Green

Rotation
Glavine (L)
El Duque (R)
Maine (R)
Perez (L)
Park (R)

Closer - Billy Wagner

Philadelphia Phillies - Division Champs
That the Phillies got two decent starting pitchers gives them an extroardinary improvement. That was the only real weakness Philadelphia had last year, and they've got John Lieber as an extra guy too. As Cole Hammels develops, they should become very good. They might miss Abreu, though, and the Mets are certainly within the margin of error on this one.

2 - Barajas
3 - Howard
4 - Utley
5 - Helms
6 - Rollins
7 - Burrell
8 - Rowand
9 - Victorino

Rotation
Garcia (R)
Myers (R)
Hammels (L)
Eaton (R)
Moyer (L)

Closer - Tom Gordon

A look at the division - NL Central

Two years ago, the NL West held the shameful title of the worst division in baseball, where the division champ struggled to top .500. This year, that honor goes to the NL Central, which is up for grabs to some degree.

Because I don't spend as much time on them, I'll go into a bit more detail here.

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup
Alfonso Soriano - CF
Matt Murton - LF
Derrek Lee - 1B
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Michael Barrett - C
Jacque Jones - RF
Mark Derosa - 2B
Cesar Izturis - SS

Projected Rotation
Carlos Zambrano (R)
Ted Lilly (L)
Jason Marquis (R)
Rich Hill (L)
Mark Prior (R)

Closer - Ryan Dempster

The Cubs began making a step in the right direction, but did not add a truly solid starting pitcher to the rotation. Granted, so much of the rotation was mediocre last year that Lilly and Marquis could help. The Cubs' defense should prove interesting with Soriano in center, and their offense should reap benefits from Sori as well, although he may be moved to the 2 instead of the 1 when it occurs to the Cubs that it is better to send up a masher with people on base. Chicago improved, but didn't make up for everything, and not everyone will stay healthy.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Lineup
Chris Duffy - CF
Jack Wilson - SS
Freddy Sanchez - 3B/2B
Jason Bay - LF
Adam Laroche - 1B
Xavier Nady - RF
Castillo/Bautista - 2B/3B
Ronny Paulino - C

Rotation
Duke (L)
Snell (R)
Armas (R)
Chacon (R)
someone

Closer - um...

Not a terrible team, but still not much to look forward to, other than an improved lineup and a better season from Zach Duke. Maybe Chacon will have better command. Or not.

Cincinatti Reds

Lineup
Freel - RF
Hatteburg - 1B
Griffey - CF
Dunn - LF
Ross - C
Encarnacion - 3B
Phillips - 2B
Gonzalez - SS

Rotation
Harang (R)
Arroyo (R)
jobber
jobber
jobber

Once again, the Reds have two useful starting pitchers, but even as good as their offense is, they need to be productive to help the 3-5 starters out. Dunn could go a long way if his luck changes on balls in play. Griffey's health is always a question, but seemingly he'll be able to play. Whether the park factors will continue to make Ross look beastly will also mean a lot to this club.

Houston Astros

Lineup
2 - Ausmus
3 - Berkman
4 - Biggio
5 - Ensberg
6 - Everett
7 - Lee
8 - Burke
9 - Scott

Rotation
Oswalt (R)
Jennins (R)
Williams (R)
Rodriguez (L)
Albers (R)

The Astros should just about balance out the rotation, and their lineup got a little better from adding Lee. There is a problem, though, with a middle infield where both guys threaten to post a sub-.300 OBP. Having two out machines in the lineup besides the pitcher is not all that great, and getting on base more would help given that the team has a couple of mashers (Lee, Berkman, Ensberg).

St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup
Eckstein - SS
Duncan - LF
Pujols - 1B
Edmonds - CF
Rolen - 3B
Encarnacion - RF
Kennedy - 2B
Y. Molina - C

Rotation
Carpenter - (R)
Wells (R)
Reyes (R)
Wainwright (R)
Looper (R)

Good News: Albert Pujols. Bad News: Kip Wells. Good news: Braden Looper isn't the setup man anymore. Bad news: neither is Adam Wainwright. Worse news: Braden Looper starting this year?! Good News: Hey, they get their world series rings!

Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup
2- Estrada
3 - Fielder
4 - Weeks
5 - Coskie
6 - Hardy
7 - Jenkins
8 - Hall
9 - Hart

Rotation
Capuano (L)
Sheets (R)
Suppan (R)
Bush (R)
Vargas (R)

This is a nice rotation, aside from Suppan. Suppan will suffer from the defense on this team. The lineup will have not a lot, but some potency, but the key really is Ben Sheets' health. If Sheets pitches 100 innings, repeat last year's performance. A good 150 innings gets them to .500 ball, and 200 innings wins the division.

Predicted Finish
well, honesly, you got me on 1-4. Really. Here's what I'll guess though.
Cardinals
Brewers (-1 game)
Astros (-2 games)
Cubs (-3 games)
Reds (-18 games)
Pirates (-20 games)

The error margins are as such where the top 4 are up for grabs entirely.

A Look at the Division - NL West

Not only is it a good idea, but I think I might do this for the rest of the divisions.

Who's new: B. Molina, J. Lopez, M. Giles, Kouzmanoff, L. Gonzalez, Sledge, Pierre, Roberts, Taveras, Schmidt, Zito, Johnson, R. Lopez, Maddux, Wolf

Here are my predictions.

5th Place - Rockies
Their pitching is going to be a bit worse, which as always is bad news. The Giants won't be that much worse either. Further, everyone else's pitching got better, so it's gonna suck to be the Rockies.

4th Place - Giants
They lost Schmidt and got Zito. Bonds will continue to get worse, but will be the best LF in the NL until people stop walking him. They still need to rebuild, though, and it will be painful unless they have some amazing rookies, if they ever do that. They'll be 5-10 games better than the Rockies.

3rd Place - Diamondbacks
Not by too much, as they'll give the Dodgers and Padres a good run. They stepped up their pitching staff with Johnson, who isn't in the AL East anymore. Hernandez should rebound from an off-year last year, and this team may finish 2nd or higher.

2nd Place - Padres
They got Marcus Giles, sure, but he's clearly not suited to being a leadoff hitter (see Atlanta, 2006). Their offense still does not stand to pose a threat to anybody, and they lost Piazza to the A's. They did get Maddux, but Woody Williams had a good year and was a bit younger. Maddux will give them an ERA around 3.8, likely, but as he ages his control over the corners will fade more.

Division Champs - LA
Well, come on. As we all know, JD Drew's 100 RBI can be made up by anyone who shows up, but his times on base are a little trickier. The Dodgers have a lineup that can produce 1-8, and I am a bit optimistic about Pierre; I think his OBP will get to about .340 or so. Overall, it would seem that the Dodger outfield defense improved, as Drew replaced by Gonzalez is more than covered by Pierre replacing Lofton. Pierre has a bit of a better arm, but can get to balls much more capably. The pitching staff got better, and having Penny at the #3 spot gives the rotation very good depth, especially when Schmidt will probably be a 3.6 ERA pitcher this year as well. The depth of the organization is unmatched as well, with Billingsley and Kuo as the 5/6 starters, Laroche waiting at third, Loney waiting at first, Kemp waiting in the outfield, and pitchers such as Greg Miller, Mark Alexander and Scott Elbert.

This will be a close race, and the 1-2-3 teams in the division will all be within 5 games, leaving San Francisco in the dust. Barry Zito will win at most 14 games, and probably more like 11. Best candidates for 20 wins are Penny, Schmidt, Webb, Johnson, Peavy.