Stealing bases in 2009

Just for fun, I figured I'd check the breakeven percentages for basestealing in 2009, and I came across a startling discovery, which I'll come to later.

When deciding whether to steal, one must weigh the risks against the rewards. If one steals successfully, there is a base gained, which is nice, but you still have to have some offense do something. If the runner is caught, then not only do you lose a baserunner, but you also lose an out. Further, there are situational issues at stake too. If you steal a base in front of a guy who is going to hit a home run, then you gain nothing except fantasy points. If you get caught stealing in front of a guy who is going to hit a home run, you lose a run. When the batter is a patient line drive hitter, stealing bases can be more advantageous. In general, though, you can look at a nifty little tool that Baseball Prospectus has on its website called the Run Expectancy Matrix. From this, you can determine the break-even percentages, defined as the percentage of stolen base attempts that need to be successful in order for the attempt to have been worthwhile. Here are the breakeven percentages for each scenario:

Stealing second, runner on first only

0 out: 70.1%
1 out: 73.3%
2 out: 69.4%

This is the most standard stolen base situation. Your leadoff guy reaches and is the only one on, often a speedy fellow. You want him to be successful about 3/4 of the time at least, and in 2009, that was actually a little more than enough. All about getting something going with a guy in scoring position.

Stealing second, runners on first and third

0 out: 76.6%
1 out: 79.2%
2 out: 92.8%

This is a much stricter standard than stealing with a runner on first only. Why is that? Well, there is a runner in scoring position. A base hit will yield a run, and even a flyout will with less than two outs. Further, one should figure that if you've gotten runners on first and third, you've been getting to the pitcher pretty effectively already. Holding onto precious outs would be more important now. Especially with 2 outs; if caught with 2 outs, you risk losing a chance for a dinky little single to score you a run.

Stealing third, runner on second only/runner on first and second:

0 out: 83.3%/76.9%
1 out: 67.8%/71.4%
2 out: 87.0%/87.3%

Having a runner on second with nobody out can come from either a double, a single/walk followed by a wild pitch, balk or steal, or an error throwing to first. In any event, it reflects that your opponents are having a tough time with pitching and/or defense, and you should not ruin that too early. With one out, though, it's a huge dropoff and I don't know why. Presumably a runner on 2nd with one out more often corresponds to a single/walk followed by a bunt or some other productive out, or suggests that the pitcher is a bit more adept at getting batters out, and the sac fly is probably not a bad way of trying to get a run across. Again, stealing with a RISP is not a good idea with two outs. Adding the runner on first makes this a bit more worwhile with nobody out though not as much so with nobody out, but is still a bad idea with 2 outs. It's still better to try to steal third with 1 out, for some reason.


Double steal, runners on first and second catcher throws to third (default)

0 out: 60.0%
1 out: 54.9%
2 out: 81.0%

Can you believe how much more valuable it is to have the guy behind you try to steal too? This doesn't factor in the weak possibility of a double play on a double steal attempt. But still, most players can achieve that kind of stolen base percentage, so the double steal is really not a bad idea. The tail runner doesn't appear to be as important since it always makes more sense to attempt to throw out the lead runner, particularly with nobody out. One has to think you try this more with a right-handed hitter who's not a big power guy up, like Russell Martin or Orlando Hudson.

Double steal, catcher throws to second

0 out: 45.4%
1 out: 54.9%
2 out: 81.0%

This is something that just won't happen unless the catcher screws up. But it could happen, and it helps to be successful here. It could also happen if the third baseman was caught completely off guard or is just really poor defensively, or if the catcher feels more comfortable with the second baseman backing up the shortstop, or if you know the tail runner is a lot slower or got a much worse jump. Still, this has to be a split-second decision, so don't expect your opponent's catcher to do that.

In any event, the double steal should be much more popular than it is. Baseball Prospectus looked at it a couple years ago, and many managers are more risk averse with this. One would assume it's because they want to make sure both runners are good basestealers, and most teams don't always have a pair of guys who can do that.

Who is to blame for the Dodgers' shrinking lead?

The Dodgers haven't continued toward a pace of winning 100 games on the year, and many are blaming the bullpen, but that might not be accruate.

Consider the following splits before and after the all-star game:
Casey Blake
1sthalf: .285/.364/.486
2ndhalf: .255/.333/.426

Russell Martin
1st half: .258/.373/.314
2nd half: .264/.328/.352

James Loney
1st half: .281/.350/.402
2nd half: .265/.342/.368

Manny Ramirez
1st half: .385/.487/.669
2nd half: .264/.365/.424

As for Manny, one thing is clear: the Dodgers should have signed Adam Dunn. Dunn is in his prime and can be reliably counted on for 40+ homers (and 150+ strikeouts). Dunn seemed to be a viable option when negotiations got funny this offseason. Now it could be that Manny is just not having fun playing baseball anymore. It could be that he hasn't been able to have sex in months because the banned substance was treating his sexual dysfunction well. It could be that he needs to take a whiz in left field and he doesn't have the Green Monster for that anymore. Or it could be that Manny is getting old, and while he's had his burst of glory earlier this season, the Dodgers might have signed a guy that can deliver a .850-.900 OPS for the year rather than a guy who delivers a 1.100 OPS. That's not bad, except that it makes him a monumental waste of money.

I admit to screwing this up, but I should have remembered that anyone can be hot for a couple months, but the players are still human, and humans become less athletic in their late 30s. Or Manny could have just hit a bad spot.

But even if not all Manny, let's take a look at the other three guys. Casey Blake has always been a first half guy, but he shouldn't be hitting high in the lineup. Orlando Hudson always starts strong offensively, and fizzles after about May or so. Furcal will either be awesome or suck. Martin isn't even walking anymore, and the Dodgers should think about where they're going to get another catcher if he doesn't have anything left. James Loney has the curious scenario of losing power every year he's been in the majors. September is always his best power month, but he'll have to do quite a lot to get back up to speed. And by up to speed, I mean make a case to be tendered a contract next year.

Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier right now are the Dodger offense. I'm glad we have them, but we need for Blake, Hudson, Furcal, Manny, Martin and Loney to hit the damned baseball too.

Room for Improvement? Part 1 - Offense

How will the Dodgers improve over last season, besides a full season of Manny Ramirez? Well, let's look position by position, but just at offense for now.

Team

6194 PA, 264/.333/.399, 126 SB/43 CS, 137 HR/543BB/1032K

Catcher

Russell Martin - 650 PA, .280/.385/.396, 18 SB/6 CS, 13 HR/90BB/83K

Others - 80 PA, .213/.263/.320, 0 SB/0 CS, 2 HR/4BB/12K

Martin can have a better season by having a better backup catcher and batting 6th, where he'll have a few less PAs. The bar is low enough any replacement level player should beat it. Brad Ausmus needs to look a bit more alive, but maybe Torre will like him enough to give him some PT.

First Base

James Loney - 651 PA, .289/.338/.434, 7 SB/4 CS, 13 HR/45BB/85K

Loney was in his first season as a full time first baseman, and came up an averagish hitter overall. He hit fewer homers in a little more than half the plate appearances, reflecting that fewer of his fly balls were going long. Loney is also a much better hitter away from Dodger Stadium, so one idea would be to give him his off days at home. Still, he should rebound to about an .800-.820 OPS, particularly as his LD% stays over 20%, and he just turns 25 this coming season. One item of note: Loney's platoon splits in 2008 appeared quite dreadful, while in 2007 they looked more favorable. Loney's BABIP vs lefties was .273 this year, compared to a .311 mark for his ML career and a .323 mark overall, so one would expect some improvement.

Second Base and Third Base

Jeff Kent - 474 PA, 280/.327/.418, 0 SB/1 CS, 12HR/25BB/52K

Blake DeWitt - 421 PA, 264/.344/.383, 3SB/0CS, 9HR/45BB/68K

Casey Blake - 233 PA, 251/.313/.460, 1 SB/0 CS, 10 HR/16BB/52K

To understand the situation, Casey Blake will play a full year and Jeff Kent will retire. Casey tends to have one or two months with ridiculous BABIP which carry his season, and the rest of the time he'll have like a .240 average on balls in play. The Dodgers never got any of his high BABIP stuff, but fortunately he showed he could still hit a long ball here and there. In a full season one would expect his average and OBP to be up by about .20, although his slugging likely won't go up.

Shortstop

Angel Berroa - 256 PA, .230/.304/.310, 0 SB/0 CS, 1 HR/20BB/41K
Nomar Garciaparra - 181 PA, 264/.326/.466, 1 SB/1CS, 8 HR/15 BB/11 K
Rafael Furcal - 164 PA, .357/.439/.573, 8 SB/3 CS, 5 HR/20 BB/17 K
Chin-Lung Hu - 129 PA, .181/.252/.233, 2 SB/0 CS, 0 HR/11BB/23K
OVERALL - .258/.331/.394

Nomar looks like he still has something left as a bench player, but he might retire rather than realize what he has left. Meanwhile, Berroa and Hu stunk up the joint more than Nomar or Furcal could make it look good, reducing the performance to something resembling Furcal's 2007 season. A return to 2006 form would be what the Dodgers would hope for, but it remains to be seen what will happen with his health. It also remains to be seen what DeJesus/Hu/Abreu can do for the middle infield, particularly after Hu fixes his eyes.

Outfield
Kemp - 657, .290/.340/.459, 35/11, 18/46/153
Ethier - 596, .305/.375/.510, 6/3, 20/59/88
Pierre - 406, .283/.327/.328. 40/12, 1/22/24
Jones - 238, .158/.256/.249, 0/1, 3/27/76
Ramirez - 229, .396/.489/.743, 2/0, 17/35/38
Young - 143, .246/.321/.341, 0/0, 1/14/34

The good news is Andruw Jones will be gone. The bad news is that Manny Ramirez is not under contract yet. The Dodgers would improve immensely with an outfield of Manny-Kemp-Ethier, but without Manny, they would need to sign Abreu or Griffey just to break even. Dunn would improve them. Ethier might drop off a bit, but seems to be dependable for something around .300/.360/.490. Matt Kemp could take off this year with newly improved plate patience and begin racking up home run totals. Juan Pierre as the left fielder will cause a slight decrease in offense unless Kemp makes up the difference.

Current Lineup:

Furcal - ss
Martin - c
Kemp - cf
Ethier - rf
Blake - 3b
Loney - 1b
DeWitt - 2b
Pierre - lf

How Much Better is Nick Markakis than Andre Ethier?

Markakis the 7th overall pick in 2003 while Ethier was a 2nd round pick that year. Markakis is a more athletic outfielder with a bit more power, and he's also a year and a half younger.

Let's run some numbers:

Markakis
2003 minors (Age 19, A-): .283/.374/.395
2004 minors (Age 20, A): .299/.373/.470
2005 minors (Age 21, A+/AA): .310/.390/.504
2006 majors: .291/.351/.448 (106 OPS+), .268 EqA, 7.1 WARP3
2007 majors: .300/.362/.485 (121 OPS+), .284 EqA, 9.6 WARP3

Ethier
2003 minors (Age 21, A-/A): .296/.364/.389
2004 minors (Age 22, A+): .314/.379/.442
2005 minors (Age 23, AA): .317/.384/.492
2006 majors: .308./365/.477 (113 OPS+), .282 EqA, 3.5 WARP3
2007 majors: .284/.350/.452 (103 OPS+), .267 EqA, 5.0 WARP3

The folks at B-P give a lot of credence to Markakis' superior defense, though to be fair, Ethier played better defense in 2007 when he did not hit as well. Even then, though, that would lead one to compare Markakis' 2006 to Ethier's 2007, and Markakis comes out on top by a couple of wins. Markakis also could potentially play center, something Ethier doesn't have in his arsenal.

Markakis is better, and has the level of talent to be a franchise player, provided that Baltimore can afford him in 4 years. That doesn't mean Ethier's a bad player, but he's not they kind of player you would build your team around.

Can Pierre be benched? Or - how to make $36 million matter

Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have in common that the Dodgers owe each of them $36 million for the remainder of their contracts. And that they were signed to play centerfield.

Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre

Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?

That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.

Year in Review, Hitters

Catcher
Russell Martin - 540 AB, .293/.374/.469, 19 HR, 21 SB-9 CS, 113 OPS+, .285 EqA, 8.0 Warp1
Mike Lieberthal - 77 AB, .234/.280/.260, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 39 OPS+, .181 EqA, -0.1 Warp1
Chad Moeller - 8 AB, .125/.222/.125, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, -8 OPS+, 0 Warp1

Martin is clearly awesome. Lieberthal is not worth paying a million dollars; might as well get the replacement level performance out of Moeller.


First Base
James Loney - 344 AB, .331/.381/.538, 15 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 131 OPS+, .302 EqA, 3.0 Warp1
Nomar Garciaparra - 431 AB, .283/.328/.371, 7 HR, 3-1 SB-CS, 78 OPS+, .242 EqA, 0.4 Warp1
Olmedo Saenz - 110 AB, .191/.295/.345, 4 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 63 OPS+, .227 EqA, -.2 Warp1
Mark Sweeney - 33 AB, .273/.294/.303, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 53 OPS+, .201 EqA, -.1 Warp1
Marlon Anderson - 26 AB, .231/.310/.231, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 41 OPS+, .202 EqA, -.1 Warp1

Loney will be the full time first baseman, which will be a good thing. Olmedo and Sweeney should both be gone, and Nomar will have to prove his worth to get any playing time on the field. Or at least, he should. And Marlon Anderson's run must end, but it was nice knowing him.

Second Base
Jeff Kent - 494 AB, .302/.375/.500, 20 HR, 1-3 SB-CS, 121 OPS+, .291 EqA, 5.3 Warp1
Tony Abreu - 166 AB, .271/.309/.404, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 80 OPS+, .242 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Ramon Martinez - 129 AB, .194/.248/.225, 1 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 22 OPS+, .168 EqA, -0.5 Warp1
Wilson Valdez - 74 AB, .216/.263/.270, 0 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 36 OPS+, .182 EqA, 0.2 Warp1

Tony Abreu should be a backup 2b or late inning replacement for Kent. Even if he's only getting about 200 AB, he'd be a much more useful pinch hitter and part time player than Martinez or Valdez. Jeff Kent looks like he'll still be the best option at 2nd, provided he's not traded or retired, although his age is starting to catch up with him.

Third Base
Wilson Betemit - 156 AB, .231/.359/.474, 10 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 110 OPS+, .282 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Andy La Roche - 93 AB, .223/.365/.312, 1 HR, 2-1 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 0.6 Warp1
Shea Hillenbrand - 70 AB, .243/.257/.343, 1 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 51 OPS+, .199 EqA, 0.0 Warp1

WHY!!! WHY DID THEY HAVE TO TRADE BETEMIT?! And this is why LA is in the hunt for A-Rod. LaRoche, who's been having a hard time translating his power to the majors has shown great patience, but it is doubtful management will do the same with him. He's a better option now than Nomar, though. But Hillenbrand's presence on this list is the worst effect of the Betemit trade.

Shortstop
Raffy Furcal - 581 AB, .270/.333/.355, 6 HR, 25-6 SB-CS, 76 OPS+, .244 EqA, 5.0 Warp1
Chin-Lung Hu - 29 HR, .241/.241/.517, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 86 OPS+, .244 EqA, 0.3 Warp1

Even with his down year at the bat, Furcal is among the best defensive shortstops in the game. Hu looks quite promising though, which makes renewing Furcal unlikely.

Left Field
Luis Gonzalez - 464 AB, .278/.359/.433, 15 HR, 6-2 SB-CS, 101 OPS+, .271 EqA, 3.3 Warp1
Brady Clark - 58 AB, .224/.308/.293, 0 HR, 1-2 SB-CS, 55 OPS+, .206 EqA, -0.3 Warp1
Delwyn Young - 34 AB, .382/.417/.647, 2 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 166 OPS+, .342 EqA, 0.5 Warp1

Young was a pleasant surprise in this category. Gonzo did his job, but now it's time for him to go. Brady Clark, we hardly knew ye, and then we saw you in that last game against Colorado and knew we made the right choice.

Center Field
Juan Pierre - 668 AB, .293/.331/.353, 0 HR, 64-15 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 2.6 Warp1

Oh, Juan. Well, he seemed to pick up his game offensively and defensively toward the end. He's got such a long history though of being just a 2nd half player. If he could string together a .308/.356/.373 line (his 2007 2nd half), I could live with that. What gets me is that he has occasional bits of doing what he should, where he fouls off a ton of pitches to force a walk. Then he led the NL in sac bunts - completely unnecessary, and much of that a result of attempted bunting for base hits that failed. I'm pretty sure he'll decline more - this was his first year without at least 1 homer, and only one of his 10 career home runs was inside the park.

Right Field
Andre Ethier - 447 AB, .284/.350/.452, 13 HR, 0-4 SB-CS, 103 OPS+, .270 EqA, 4.4 Warp1
Matt Kemp - 292 AB, .342/.373/.521, 10 HR, 10-5 SB-CS, 125 OPS+, .294 EqA, 2.8 Warp1

Good and good. Give each 550 AB, and they will be productive. As a matter of fact, if you ignore Ethier's April, he hit .291/.366/.451, and either way compares favorably to JD Drew. Kemp could do some serious damage if given more playing time, although he still needs to develop his patience further. Ideally, next year will feature Kemp and Ethier both in the outfield.

As of today, suggested all-star ballots

Now what makes an all-star? It seems that each year, it should reward those who are doing well, although it's really a popularity contest. Nonetheless, let's see what this would look like if it were for those who did well. The fans get to vote, and that impacts which position players start.

All-OBP TEAMS
To the highest OBP at each position:
NL
2 - Russell Martin (.386)
3 - Todd Helton (.460)
4 - Kelly Johnson (.392)
5 - Chipper Jones (.392) - it should be noted that Mark Ellis and Chad Tracy are higher here, but neither have played as much, although it's borderline whether Chipper qualifies
6 - Jose Reyes (.398)
7 - Barry Bonds (.485)
8 - Carlos Beltran (.390)
9 - Brad Hawpe (.411)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.412)
3 - Jim Thome (.470) - although he's not on the ballot due to Konerko. Also deserving the ballot but not on is Kevin Youkilis
4 - Brian Roberts (.421)
5 - Mike Lowell (.391) - would be Iwamura but for injury
6 - Derek Jeter (.399)
7 - Nick Swisher (.425)
8 - Reggie Willits (.419)
9 - Vladimir Guerrero (.460)

The ALL-SB team
no regard to CS
NL
2 - Martin (8)
3 - Jeff Conine and Lance Berkman (3)
4 - Kaz Matsui and Brandon Phillips (9)
5 - David Wright (11)
6 - Jose Reyes (30)
7 - Alfonso Soriano (8)
8 - Juan Pierre (18)
9 - Shane Victorino (16)

AL
2 - Mike Napoli (4)
3 - Gary Sheffield (7)
4 - Brian Roberts (19)
5 - Nick Punto (11)
6 - Julio Lugo (17)
7 - Carl Crawford (12)
8 - Grady Sizemore (17)
9 - Bobby Abreu (8)

The All-HR team
NL
2 - Russell Martin and Michael Barrett (7)
3 - Prince Fielder (20)
4 - Dan Uggla (12)
5 - Aramis Ramirez (13)
6 - JJ Hardy (16)
7 - Adam Dunn (14)
8 - Eric Byrnes (9)
9 - Ken Griffey Jr (12)

AL
2 - Victor Martinez (12)
3 - Justin Morneau (14)
4 - Ian Kinsler (10)
5 - Alex Rodriguez (20)
6 - Jhonny Peralta (11)
7 - Craig Monroe (9)
8 - Torii Hunter (12)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (13)

The All-AVG team
NL
2 - Bengie Molina (.320)
3 - Derrek Lee (.357)
4 - Chase Utley (.304)
5 - Miguel Cabrera (.319)
6 - Edgar Renteria (.335)
7 - Matt Holiday (.345)
8 - Willy Tavares (.327)
9 - Tony Gwynn Jr (.320)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.360)
3 - Kevin Youkilis (.346)
4 - Luis Castillo (.337)
5 - Mike Lowell (.332)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (.329)
7 - Carl Crawford (.295)
8 - Ichiro Suzuki (.333)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (.362)

More Roster Fun

IN: INF Tony Abreu
OUT: P Hong-Chih Kuo


Also of note is that Tomko's next start will be skipped with the day off. This probably means that Billingsley gets a shot at the rotation, as it'll still be a few weeks before Schmidt returns. By that time, he can not only potentially take Tomko's spot, but also force Hendrickson out when the Dodgers $47 million pitcher returns. I really hope they put Billingsley in when he's in DC, because then I get to see him pitch!

But yeah, apparently LaRoche will be given platoon time with Gonzalez as well, and he and Abreu will compete for the 3rd base job, and effectively they'll compete with Ramon Martinez in a game of survivor. The burden of proof, of course, rests with LaRoche and Abreu, who still have minor league options.

Juan Pierre Update

I don't know if anyone reads this, but I really should update this blog more often. I would probably do a lot better if I wasn't so aware that nobody read the darn thing (or if I sent the link to someone else).

But anyway . . .

Juan Pierre has been off to a horrendously slow start. Well, by his standards no. He's not going to be wrecking anyone's fantasy team in a 5x5 roto league. But he's a little under his average level of performance, and that makes him really really bad. Consider his line:

.277/.305/.314, 15 SB, 5 CS, 5 2B, 1 3B, 27 R, 10 RBI, 1 SF, 6 S, 203 TPA

You could look at it this way, and get a different picture

.277 BA, 15 SB, 27 R

And from a fantasy perspective he's ok, and he'd probably pick up the average a bit. But what is bogging the average down though? Pierre isn't good, but he has been better than this before. Well, look at fangraphs, and let's break down what he's been doing.

First of all, he's striking out more and walking less than normal; normally Pierre's strikeouts and walks are about even, but that ratio is about 2 to 1 this year. Pierre will usually walk in 5.8% of his PAs, but now it's only 4.2%. His strikeouts are at about 9.2% of plate appearances this year, compared with a career rate of just 6.2%. Also worth considering are that Pierre's fly ball rate is way up - this year it's at 32.5%, compared to a career rate of 21.9%! As we all know, Pierre doesn't hit those fly balls for home runs very often, so it doesn't help him that he's hitting so many; his ground balls are down to 47% from 56.4% career. Pierre is also not bunting his way on base nearly as much as he used to: only 17.7% of his bunts are becoming hits, down from 37.7%; this number was 42.9% last year!

So Pierre needs to hit more grounders, fewer popups, and bunt better in order to be successful. Striking out less would be nice.

The Wisdom of Dodger Blues

From Asshole of the Moment:
3.24.07 - Grady Little
If Rafael Furcal isn't ready for Opening Day, don't expect Nomar to make the logical switch to short with James Loney slipping in at first. Instead, it looks like Little would go with Tony Abreu at shortstop—a position he doesn't play. Little will tell you that he doesn't want Nomar getting hurt, but if that's the case, why even play him at all? Why not just put him in a display case behind home plate and let people take pictures of him?

This is really an excellent point, and matters are made worse by the fact that instead of Abreu, it's a platoon of Wilson Valdez and Ramon Martinez. While this is better than Hamulack and Carter out of the bullpen, it is horrible nonetheless. Moving Nomar over to short and playing Loney at first would upgrade defense at first and the lineup overall. Besides, Nomar would presumably last longer at short than, oh, SATURDAY, when Furcal should be back. And you could have still kept Kemp in the lineup.

Further, I nominate Grady for AHOTM for suggesting that Ethier should be platooned. Ethier can hit left handers, which we established last year, but Gonzo can't. Further, if he's basing this on one game, that's absurd. For that matter, why not bench Pierre and Gonzalez, who sucked in the game . . . YESTERDAY! Or maybe banish Derek Lowe to the bullpen for only lasting 4 innings and then promote Hendrickson to the rotation (no, don't. Please don't). This is insanity, and nothing less. Tomorrow should turn out better, though, because it's Jason Schmidt against Jeff Suppan.

JD Boo-Hoo

JD Drew, who disgracefully is ashamed of his excellent first name, also feels the need to strike back verbally at Ned Colletti, months after bolting for a big fat raise.

Saying it was a business decision, citing job security and not wanting to be traded as his primary reasons for employing the clause, Drew said he did not begin to consider the option until the 2006 season ended.

It strikes me as ludicrous for anyone who is guaranteed a contract to worry about job security. If anything, he was in a position to take over center field in Los Angeles so that James Loney or Matt Kemp could have taken the extra outfield spot. The fact is the Dodgers would not have been nearly as likely to retain Nomar Garciaparra had Drew stayed in LA, and Drew could have even gotten the 3-hitter job. When Bill Plaschke calls for Loney over Nomar, you know something's up.

As for whether or not he would have been traded, the time to trade Drew would have been at the deadline to Seattle for Adrian Beltre, but Colletti decided not to go down that road (good call) and got Wilson Betemit instead, even dumping Danys Baez in the process. As for trading him, think in Colletti terms: the Dodgers would give up a fair amount of power (their leader in homers and RBI last year) as well as a veteran with decent defense (although a declining arm).

Besides, LA was looking to up their pitching staff through free agency and trade for a power hitter, and they'd have to trade Drew for another outfielder. He wouldn't go within the division to Arizona nor to Anaheim, the Mets wouldn't have an attractive enough offering, the Marlins likely wouldn't want to double their payroll for him, the Orioles don't have anyone, the Red Sox wouldn't give up Pena for him, the Yankees wouldn't give up Matsui, the Blue Jays wouldn't budge, the Rangers had nobody. The Phillies? ha! I could see the Reds taking him for Dunn and someone else, but Dunn has one year before free agency. I could also see the Tigers going for him, because they are very weak in team OBP and have Monroe and Thames as potential trade targets, perhaps both. But other than Cincy or Detroit, I would have doubted it, and if Drew specified those teams, then no dice.

Drew opted out because he knew $11 million a year was a bargain on the market for the type of player he is (a poor man's Bobby Abreu). He's a good ball player, and the team OBP will miss him next year. I won't deny that the glossy pages didn't include my last paragraph. But if he's going to say he's offended that Colletti would attack his honesty, and add some bogus window-dressing reasons, then something is wrong.

Plate Discipline

This is a virtue that stat geeks will extol constantly. There are a few things to look at in this:

1) Walk rate
2) Strikeout to walk rate
3) Pitches per plate appearance


The first two are easy to look at. Walk rate can demonstrate how much a player will take walks, but this is a function of multiple variables, namely: his eyesight, his judgement of the strike zone, and the amount of fear a pitcher has for him. Strikeout to walk can be useful in estimating the player's overall OBP; a player with a lot of strikeouts will not hit for high average, and so the number of walks may be outweighted by the low batting average that results. For example, Adam Dunn. On the other hand, a player who does not strike out yet still walks a lot demonstrates excellent patience (few swinging K's) and excellent knowledge of the strike zone (few times caught looking), and a great example of this is Jackie Robinson.

Now pitches per plate appearance is one of those stats that is not very well-known or advertised, but this is something one can think through. The more pitches a pitcher has to go through, the shorter he will last, even if he gets everyone out. After all, when a pitcher is removed before the 6th inning, that is when the worst relief pitchers have to come out of the bullpen. What was often the case with Brad Penny was that he would have good outings, but batters would foul off so many pitches that he would hit 100 pitches in the 4th and 5th innings. Hitting foul balls is a skill that is perhaps too underappreciated, but a player that can hit a foul ball can exhaust a pitcher easily.

Either way, here's the Dodgers' starting line, complete with P/PA for the past 6 seasons. Stop now and guess who will have the highest number here.

Ok, here.

Betemit 4.01 Furcal 3.89 Gonzo 3.87 Martin 3.77 Kent 3.62 Ethier 3.59 Pierre 3.44 Nomar 3.13

MLB average P/PA in2006: 3.76

The Dodgers lineup will be below average next year in taking pitches, although that could change once the injury bug bites. Nomar will not stay healthy all year, though so that number will get a little higher. Still, the Dodgers look to be losing many battles of pitch counts if they do not get on base more than the other team.

I was impressed though, to see Betemit with the best P/PA, despite not having a really high isolated patience (OBP-BA). Nonetheless, he can be a pest for the opposition if nothing else.