Fan Bases and Winning Games

Seem like they're one and the same, right? If you win, people will come, right? Well yeah, but that's not the biggest reason.

Looking at the NL for the last 4 seasons, the biggest determinant of attendance was team payroll - if a team spent a certain amount of money, so many fans would come. Now, of course, this may actually be a faulty cause and effect; it might be that teams know their market and get what their attendance will afford. But still, take a look at this:

Regression Analysis: Att versus W, Pay
The regression equation is
Att = 199189 + 10498 W + 0.0222 Pay

Predictor - P
Constant - 0.608
W - 0.050
Pay - 0.000

S = 374825 R-Sq = 70.5% R-Sq(adj) = 69.5%

That is a very tidy regression. That is also a very low P-value for pay, indicating that we are very very sure that payroll affects attendance. Wins would appear to have some impact as well on atendance, but not entirely.

But this is more telling:

Regression Analysis: W versus Pay, RD
The regression equation is
W = 81.2 - 0.000000 Pay + 0.0969 RD

Predictor - P
Constant - 0.000
Pay - 0.975
RD - 0.000

S = 4.02786 R-Sq = 84.0% R-Sq(adj) = 83.5%

Taking into account the effect of payroll on run differential, there is some effect, so you are going to run into some multicollinearity, but still, the R-squared value is 20.7%.

It's really hard to define a model that actually tells you what you want to know, but my intuition seems to support the following: payroll is for putting fans in the seats, not winning ballgames. The Yankees have a $200,000,000 payroll, sure, but they're wasting money on guys like Carl Pavano in all that. Having good drafting and scouting helps. Being able to sign free agents is nice, but there are few free agents that are really worth what they might cost.

It is with that in mind that I ask whether one can really be sure if Matt Kemp is better than someone like Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones. He's certainly better than Juan Pierre.

2007 PrOPS

PrOPS estimates what players' batting lines should be based on batted ball types etc. Available at the Hardball Times, and developed by JC Bradbury.

Players with expected and actual lines:

Russell Martin .283/.367/.455 .293/.374/.469
James Loney .300/.350/.501 .331/.381/.538
Jeff Kent .288/.364/.478 .302/.375/.500
Nomar Garciaparra .286/.330/.403 .283/.328/.371
Rafael Furcal .278/.339/.376 .270/.335/.355
Andre Ethier .281/.350/.436 .284/.350/.452
Juan Pierre .293/.328/.358 .293/.331/.353
Luis Gonzalez .289/.368/.455 .278/.359/.433

Matt Kemp .261/.297/.430 .342/.373/.521
Andy LaRoche .257/.391/.363 .226/.365/.312
Delwyn Young .299/.332/.545 .382/.417/.647
Tony Abreu .267/.308/.366 .271/.309/.404
Chin-Lung Hu .261/.258/.527 .241/.241/.517

Glaring discrepencies:
Matt Kemp
Delywn Young
Andy LaRoche

LaRoche gets credit for his patience and PrOPS figures he should have hit the ball successfully more often given the batted ball types. Delwyn Young looks to be good, but not as much as he showed. Matt Kemp looks like he was the recipient of a ton of lucky singles. A ton. If this is accurate for predicting performance, it might not be a bad idea to trade Kemp with his value high, assuming of course he doesn't improve his patience or power or something like that.

Take A Look at this

Good Free Agents pre 2008
3b
A-Rod

cf
Andruw Jones
Torii Hunter
Aaron Rowand

dh
Barry Bonds

c
Michael Barrett
Jason Kendall

SP
Matt Clement

Good Free Agents pre 2009

first base
Mark Teixeira - 1B

second base
Orlando Hudson - 2B

outfielders
Pat Burrell - LF
Adam Dunn - LF
Bobby Abreu - RF
Vlad Guerrero - RF

closers
Jason Isringhausen - CL
Brad Lidge - CL
Joe Nathan - CL

starting pitchers
CC Sabathia - LHSP
Johan Santana - LHSP
Oliver Perez - LHSP
Mark Mulder - LHSP
Derek Lowe - RHSP
Greg Maddux - RHSP
Ben Sheets - RHSP

shortstops
Rafael Furcal

Good Free Agents pre 2010
1b
Nick Johnson
Adam LaRoche
Carlos Pena

2b
Placido Polanco
Brian Roberts
Freddy Sanchez

3b
Adrian Beltre
Chipper Jones
Miguel Cabrera

CF
Chone Figgins
Ryan Freel

corner OF
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Carl Crawford
Gary Sheffield
Jayson Werth

DH
Manny Ramirez

Starting Pitchers
Erik Bedard - LHSP
Dontrelle Willis - LHSP
Chris Capuano - LHSP
Brad Penny - RHSP
Jake Peavy - RHSP

Closers
JJ Putz -CL


Good Free Agents pre 2011
First base
Paul Konerko
Justin Morneau
Kevin Youkilis

third base
Wilson Betemit
Eric Chavez

catcher
Joe Mauer
Yadier Molina

Outfield
Eric Byrnes
Brad Hawpe
Alex Rios

Closers
BJ Ryan
Huston Street

shortstop
Derek Jeter

A smart GM would look at all the major league talent he has under control for this period of time, and check to see when would be the oppurtune time to deal and hold onto it. Nice to put out to look at.

Joe

Joe Torre is now the Dodger manager. Grady Little had enough of the season, so he just quit. Torre will probably not make but so much of a difference, but let's venture a guess.

Managing a pitching staff
Neither was known for trying to kill a starting pitcher. Torre had a reputation for picking favorite relievers, but Grady was picking that up with Broxton. To be fair, the Dodgers have a much deeper bullpen with Saito, Broxton, Proctor and Beimel all as capable relievers. Brazoban too, if he's ever healthy again. (If they give up on Yhency, though, a run at Gagne would be nice).

Managing a lineup
Tends to give players set roles, but this isn't bad. He liked Jeter in the 2 spot, which actually was wonderful - maybe he puts Martin there. Also not afraid to demote guys like Giambi, Damon, etc, although some utility players get a lot more credit than one might think. Making Abreu the utility man wouldn't be bad, though.

Handling the media
Torre is good for keeping people calm, although nobody in the LA media is like the NY media. Maybe Simers. On the other hand, Little wasn't too bad at this, and he was more interesting at times, often funny, and Torre may be more boring.

Clubhouse stuff
Apparently Torre has a bit more control, maybe because he's not such a joker.

Marginal at best, but probably not a bad move.

Year in Review, Hitters

Catcher
Russell Martin - 540 AB, .293/.374/.469, 19 HR, 21 SB-9 CS, 113 OPS+, .285 EqA, 8.0 Warp1
Mike Lieberthal - 77 AB, .234/.280/.260, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 39 OPS+, .181 EqA, -0.1 Warp1
Chad Moeller - 8 AB, .125/.222/.125, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, -8 OPS+, 0 Warp1

Martin is clearly awesome. Lieberthal is not worth paying a million dollars; might as well get the replacement level performance out of Moeller.


First Base
James Loney - 344 AB, .331/.381/.538, 15 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 131 OPS+, .302 EqA, 3.0 Warp1
Nomar Garciaparra - 431 AB, .283/.328/.371, 7 HR, 3-1 SB-CS, 78 OPS+, .242 EqA, 0.4 Warp1
Olmedo Saenz - 110 AB, .191/.295/.345, 4 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 63 OPS+, .227 EqA, -.2 Warp1
Mark Sweeney - 33 AB, .273/.294/.303, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 53 OPS+, .201 EqA, -.1 Warp1
Marlon Anderson - 26 AB, .231/.310/.231, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 41 OPS+, .202 EqA, -.1 Warp1

Loney will be the full time first baseman, which will be a good thing. Olmedo and Sweeney should both be gone, and Nomar will have to prove his worth to get any playing time on the field. Or at least, he should. And Marlon Anderson's run must end, but it was nice knowing him.

Second Base
Jeff Kent - 494 AB, .302/.375/.500, 20 HR, 1-3 SB-CS, 121 OPS+, .291 EqA, 5.3 Warp1
Tony Abreu - 166 AB, .271/.309/.404, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 80 OPS+, .242 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Ramon Martinez - 129 AB, .194/.248/.225, 1 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 22 OPS+, .168 EqA, -0.5 Warp1
Wilson Valdez - 74 AB, .216/.263/.270, 0 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 36 OPS+, .182 EqA, 0.2 Warp1

Tony Abreu should be a backup 2b or late inning replacement for Kent. Even if he's only getting about 200 AB, he'd be a much more useful pinch hitter and part time player than Martinez or Valdez. Jeff Kent looks like he'll still be the best option at 2nd, provided he's not traded or retired, although his age is starting to catch up with him.

Third Base
Wilson Betemit - 156 AB, .231/.359/.474, 10 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 110 OPS+, .282 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Andy La Roche - 93 AB, .223/.365/.312, 1 HR, 2-1 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 0.6 Warp1
Shea Hillenbrand - 70 AB, .243/.257/.343, 1 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 51 OPS+, .199 EqA, 0.0 Warp1

WHY!!! WHY DID THEY HAVE TO TRADE BETEMIT?! And this is why LA is in the hunt for A-Rod. LaRoche, who's been having a hard time translating his power to the majors has shown great patience, but it is doubtful management will do the same with him. He's a better option now than Nomar, though. But Hillenbrand's presence on this list is the worst effect of the Betemit trade.

Shortstop
Raffy Furcal - 581 AB, .270/.333/.355, 6 HR, 25-6 SB-CS, 76 OPS+, .244 EqA, 5.0 Warp1
Chin-Lung Hu - 29 HR, .241/.241/.517, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 86 OPS+, .244 EqA, 0.3 Warp1

Even with his down year at the bat, Furcal is among the best defensive shortstops in the game. Hu looks quite promising though, which makes renewing Furcal unlikely.

Left Field
Luis Gonzalez - 464 AB, .278/.359/.433, 15 HR, 6-2 SB-CS, 101 OPS+, .271 EqA, 3.3 Warp1
Brady Clark - 58 AB, .224/.308/.293, 0 HR, 1-2 SB-CS, 55 OPS+, .206 EqA, -0.3 Warp1
Delwyn Young - 34 AB, .382/.417/.647, 2 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 166 OPS+, .342 EqA, 0.5 Warp1

Young was a pleasant surprise in this category. Gonzo did his job, but now it's time for him to go. Brady Clark, we hardly knew ye, and then we saw you in that last game against Colorado and knew we made the right choice.

Center Field
Juan Pierre - 668 AB, .293/.331/.353, 0 HR, 64-15 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 2.6 Warp1

Oh, Juan. Well, he seemed to pick up his game offensively and defensively toward the end. He's got such a long history though of being just a 2nd half player. If he could string together a .308/.356/.373 line (his 2007 2nd half), I could live with that. What gets me is that he has occasional bits of doing what he should, where he fouls off a ton of pitches to force a walk. Then he led the NL in sac bunts - completely unnecessary, and much of that a result of attempted bunting for base hits that failed. I'm pretty sure he'll decline more - this was his first year without at least 1 homer, and only one of his 10 career home runs was inside the park.

Right Field
Andre Ethier - 447 AB, .284/.350/.452, 13 HR, 0-4 SB-CS, 103 OPS+, .270 EqA, 4.4 Warp1
Matt Kemp - 292 AB, .342/.373/.521, 10 HR, 10-5 SB-CS, 125 OPS+, .294 EqA, 2.8 Warp1

Good and good. Give each 550 AB, and they will be productive. As a matter of fact, if you ignore Ethier's April, he hit .291/.366/.451, and either way compares favorably to JD Drew. Kemp could do some serious damage if given more playing time, although he still needs to develop his patience further. Ideally, next year will feature Kemp and Ethier both in the outfield.

40 Man Roster Analysis

Players that should stay with the big club, definitely
Russell Martin
Brad Penny
James Loney
Matt Kemp
Takashi Saito
Jonathan Broxton
Chad Billingsley

That's a catcher, first baseman, right/center fielder, two starting pitchers, a closer and a setup man.

Players that I would like to leave via Free Agency
Mark Hendrickson
Roberto Hernandez
David Wells
Randy Wolf
Mike Lieberthal
Shea Hillenbrand
Ramon Martinez
Olmedo Saenz
Mark Sweeney
Luis Gonzalez

Hendrickson's non-tender would be the hardest. The rest of these guys will probably leave as free agents or retire, so not a problem.

Players I really want to trade
Juan Pierre
Jeff Kent

Provided Kent doesn't retire, he could be a useful DH to some team. Provided Boston doesn't pick up A-Rod, they could theoretically let Lowell go, move Youkilis to third and play Kent at first. The difficulty of trading Juan Pierre is that he would have to be traded for someone else who is a real salary burden, sort of a Jeff Suppan type, but more ridiculous. This would be someone who would give Dusty Baker a managerial job for it to happen. Otherwise, Pierre may just have to be admitted a failure by LA and displaced, benched and ultimately released. Trading him to SF would be more disrespectful than releasing him probably.

Players we are stuck with
Esteban Loaiza
Nomar Garciapara

Provided we trade Kent, Nomar could probably play better defense at 2b, and he should be able to bounce back to at least an .800 OPS. A 2B with an .800 OPS is alright by me. Loaiza will probably be Tomko'ed. What was Billy Beane thinking?

Players that would be a good idea to think about trading
Rafael Furcal
Derek Lowe
Hong-Chi Kuo
Eric Stults

Kuo is a good pitcher, but he's such an injury risk. He could be valuable for teams that like the Mark Prior types. Did I mention he's a lefty?

Derek Lowe is in the last year of his contract and looks like he wants out. That said,
he's an incredibly valuable starting pitcher, and he could be huge for getting some sort of significant player in a trade, or helping us dump Juan Pierre and not pay his salary. That may become a concern if we pay A-Rod $35,000,000 per year.

Eric Stults is a potentially useful fourth or fifth starter, and he's . . . left-handed. But without Kuo's injury history.

Furcal had a bad offensive year which he's certain to rebound from, and even then, he was 2nd in baseball in RF only to Tulo, and the Dodgers have a much higher K/9 than the Rockies. This means Furcal is an awesome defensive SS who can hit the ball too if he's healthy. If the BoSox want to take a chance on his being healthy, more power to them.

Players that could easily be Dodgers next year but could be traded
Andre Ethier
Andy LaRoche
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu
Joe Beimel
Eric Hull
John Meloan
Scott Proctor
Jason Repko
Delwyn Young

Of this group, I'll say LaRoche's injury makes me really hate the Betemit trade. Abreu and Hu should be bench players to stick around for when Nomar and LaRoche get hurt. Then A-Rod plays third and you have a good youthful combo up the middle that can hit a little. Ethier and Beimel are both good and likely to stick around, Young and Repko look like outfield bench players, though Young or Repko should start taking some PT from Pierre.

Players that could spend all next year on the DL
Jason Schmidt
Yhency Brazoban

Brazoban is $55 million away from being Darren Dreifort, while Schmidt is only $8 million away.

Players that might be let go but are useful
Chun-Hui Tsao
Rudy Seanez

Seanez is an old dude and who knows what he does. Tsao was useful but injury prone, and management might consider him fungible, which would be unfortunate.


Players likely to start in the Minors
DJ Houlton
Mike Megrew
Greg Miller

Control problems and familiarity issues, or whatever.

A-Rod

Can be ours without losing the first round draft pick. Nice.