The Dodgers have one sure bet for the infield in 2008: James Loney. Beyond him, much is up in the air.
Second Base
Free Agents: Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Ray Durham
In House: Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young
As it is, Ellis is the leading candidate now for a free agent 2B signing because of Orlando Hudson's season-ending injury. Picking up Hudson would be a risky move - you don't know what he's going to do offensively. Felipe Lopez would be the low buy, and Ray Durham is an old dude who can't play defense, but at least he can get on base.
DeWitt is probably still a contender for the third base job, but don't forget Delwyn Young. Larry Bowa thinks he can play second, so that can't be ruled out yet.
Shortstop
Free Agents: Rafael Furcal, Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria
In House: Chin-Lung Hu, Russell Martin
Let's throw this out there now: Martin is not moving from behind the plate unless Saltalamacchia, etc falls in the Dodgers lap. If they were willing to trade Lowe at the deadline, this might be feasible, but now, not so much.
Furcal is an injury question. After being out almost all season and having an abysmal year at the plate (although being amazing when healthy), he's likely to take a 1 year deal. Provided he's happy in LA, I can see him staying, so it would appear he's most likely to remain a Dodger. The real question is who plays in September - if it's Furcal, then it's likely he comes back. If Furcal is hurt and Hu gets a chance and does well, Furcal will get offered arbitration so LA gets draft picks, and Hu becomes the starting shortstop. Neither other free agent option looks good, unless Hu is particularly bad in September and Furcal doesn't look like he'll be healthy soon.
Third Base
Free agents: Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Mark Teixiera*,
In House: Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin
Trade: Adrian Beltre
I mention Beltre because it seems like a DePo correction that he could enjoy, and it is true that Beltre is a good defensive 3B as well as a decent hitter. I don't see LA giving up players for him for just a year, though, but that could all depend on what Colletti is thinking on a particular day. Nomar keeps getting hurt, but it looks like he can still hit some, so he remains a viable option at third. Blake is gone. Teixiera has played 15 games at the major league level at third base, the position where he was originally drafted. He's a very good defensive first baseman, and I would be surprised if he switched back. DeWitt seems like he'll get a starting job next year, somehow, but I'm not sure where; third would seem likely.
Most Likely
Loney
DeWitt
Furcal
Nomar
This would be the most status quo of the lineups, and would make sense with DeWitt playing 2nd in Vegas, even with LaRoche gone. The goal with Furcal would be to get him back at a discount for one year, but it may only be down to about $8 million. Nomar will probably re-sign for less than he's making now, but I would guess a 2 year $12 million deal.
Loney
DeWitt
Guzman
Nomar
As much as I don't want Christian Guzman and I know Vin Scully likes saying "O-Dog," Torre and co like DeWitt more than Hu, so I'd expect to see Nomar at third and DeWitt at 2nd, and a stopgap SS in the meantime, if Fucal doesn't stay. I really don't see LA suddenly favoring Hu after letting Angel Berroa have a job for so long, unless Logan White is the new GM.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Manny?
Well we got Manny Ramirez, but it did cost us Andy LaRoche.
One thing though: Manny says he wants to stay in LA. He likes the relaxed atmosphere, being loved by fans, but having his peace off the field. At 35 he wouldn't get a 4 or 5 year contract, but one could see a 3 year deal easily to keep him here. McCourt is probably excited enough to green light Colletti to extend him, even with agent Boras.
So what does that mean?
If we keep Manny, we'll need to retain Furcal or pay for a 3B/2B. Our other viable choice would be Orlando Hudson. We could also expect about a .700 OPS from each of those players. Tony Abreu presumably would still have healthy issues.
We would also want as many homegrown options as possible. Which could mean, surprise, DY plays second. Remember also that Xavier Paul will be ready soon, so he or Ethier could be traded. It could also mean we'd find a way to accept Jones and or Pierre as a sunk cost and then just try to dump them or trade them off and pay only most of their salary.
Lineup in 2009
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
DeWitt
Hu
This actually doesn't look bad, although it does depend a good bit on Furcal's health. Otherwise, we'll see:
Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Loney
Abreu/DY
DeWitt
Hu
So Furcal looks like a good pickup. If no Manny or Furcal, then we'll probably get Sabathia or Sheets, which gives us this rotation:
Sabathia
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw
which is just plain sick, and would let me feel better about the lineup.
One thing though: Manny says he wants to stay in LA. He likes the relaxed atmosphere, being loved by fans, but having his peace off the field. At 35 he wouldn't get a 4 or 5 year contract, but one could see a 3 year deal easily to keep him here. McCourt is probably excited enough to green light Colletti to extend him, even with agent Boras.
So what does that mean?
If we keep Manny, we'll need to retain Furcal or pay for a 3B/2B. Our other viable choice would be Orlando Hudson. We could also expect about a .700 OPS from each of those players. Tony Abreu presumably would still have healthy issues.
We would also want as many homegrown options as possible. Which could mean, surprise, DY plays second. Remember also that Xavier Paul will be ready soon, so he or Ethier could be traded. It could also mean we'd find a way to accept Jones and or Pierre as a sunk cost and then just try to dump them or trade them off and pay only most of their salary.
Lineup in 2009
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
DeWitt
Hu
This actually doesn't look bad, although it does depend a good bit on Furcal's health. Otherwise, we'll see:
Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Loney
Abreu/DY
DeWitt
Hu
So Furcal looks like a good pickup. If no Manny or Furcal, then we'll probably get Sabathia or Sheets, which gives us this rotation:
Sabathia
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw
which is just plain sick, and would let me feel better about the lineup.
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Future
Because why be satisfied with the present. Currently, the Dodgers are committed to the following players next year:
2009
C - Russell Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - (Blake DeWitt)
SS - (Chin-Lung Hu)
3B - (Andy LaRoche)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Matt Kemp
SP - Brad Penny
SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Jason Schmidt
SP - Clayton Kershaw
BN - Juan Pierre (OF)
BN - Tony Abreu (INF)
BN - Young/Repko (OF)
BN - Lucas May (C)
BN - Nomar Garciaparra (INF/PH)
BN - lefty PH
RP - Jonathan Broxton
RP - Yhency Brazoban
RP - Scott Proctor
RP - Cory Wade
RP - Hong-Chi Kuo
RP - Joe Beimel
Well first, the Red is speculation on re-signing, green is speculation on call-ups for players who don't have major league service time yet, and blue is speculation on who we'd get from NRIs. The problem with this estimate is that it assumes no Ned factor. Colletti, despite being the incumbent, keeps wanting to make a huge signing in the offseason. He blew a bunch of money on Pierre and Schmidt, Andruw Jones last year.
Leaving via free agency then would be:
Derek Lowe
Esteban Loaiza
Rafael Furcal
The Dodgers will offer Lowe and Furcal arbitration, unless they're insane, netting them 5 first round draft picks, potentially.
2009
C - Russell Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - (Blake DeWitt)
SS - (Chin-Lung Hu)
3B - (Andy LaRoche)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Matt Kemp
SP - Brad Penny
SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Jason Schmidt
SP - Clayton Kershaw
BN - Juan Pierre (OF)
BN - Tony Abreu (INF)
BN - Young/Repko (OF)
BN - Lucas May (C)
BN - Nomar Garciaparra (INF/PH)
BN - lefty PH
RP - Jonathan Broxton
RP - Yhency Brazoban
RP - Scott Proctor
RP - Cory Wade
RP - Hong-Chi Kuo
RP - Joe Beimel
Well first, the Red is speculation on re-signing, green is speculation on call-ups for players who don't have major league service time yet, and blue is speculation on who we'd get from NRIs. The problem with this estimate is that it assumes no Ned factor. Colletti, despite being the incumbent, keeps wanting to make a huge signing in the offseason. He blew a bunch of money on Pierre and Schmidt, Andruw Jones last year.
Leaving via free agency then would be:
Derek Lowe
Esteban Loaiza
Rafael Furcal
The Dodgers will offer Lowe and Furcal arbitration, unless they're insane, netting them 5 first round draft picks, potentially.
Monday, May 5, 2008
What the hell is going on with DeWitt over LaRoche
The problem with Dewitt at 2nd is that Torre likes him too much to try LaRoche, which is really mroe a problem with Torre.
The Dodgers optioned LaRoche to AAA, even though he could have taken more time on his rehab assignment. LaRoche is hitting .154/.354/.385 after 5 games in Vegas, with 4 walks, a single and a homer. All I need to see is a couple extra base hits to see that his power is still there, and then I figure you call the guy up. Torre hasn't seen enough of LaRoche, and he's had a couple of injuries. He's also not a proven vet like Nomar, so he doesn't get the pass there.
Torre makes Grady Little look like he can cleverly manage a pitching staff. The way he burns through relievers and yanks starters too early is a bit mind-numbing. Deciding to bullshit around with Martin at third, especially with a piece of shit like Gary Bennett as the backup catcher is terrible too. Granted, that one is more Colletti's fault for trading Navarro for Mark Hendrickson, but hey.
The best explanation I have is the Dodgers think that Dewitt's stock is really high right now and they're looking to trade him. That, and they want to make sure the thumb injury doesn't kill LaRoche. Still, though, a good manager and GM should put the best team out there, and that's not happening if LaRoche is healthy but in Vegas.
The Dodgers optioned LaRoche to AAA, even though he could have taken more time on his rehab assignment. LaRoche is hitting .154/.354/.385 after 5 games in Vegas, with 4 walks, a single and a homer. All I need to see is a couple extra base hits to see that his power is still there, and then I figure you call the guy up. Torre hasn't seen enough of LaRoche, and he's had a couple of injuries. He's also not a proven vet like Nomar, so he doesn't get the pass there.
Torre makes Grady Little look like he can cleverly manage a pitching staff. The way he burns through relievers and yanks starters too early is a bit mind-numbing. Deciding to bullshit around with Martin at third, especially with a piece of shit like Gary Bennett as the backup catcher is terrible too. Granted, that one is more Colletti's fault for trading Navarro for Mark Hendrickson, but hey.
The best explanation I have is the Dodgers think that Dewitt's stock is really high right now and they're looking to trade him. That, and they want to make sure the thumb injury doesn't kill LaRoche. Still, though, a good manager and GM should put the best team out there, and that's not happening if LaRoche is healthy but in Vegas.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Week 1 review
So my fantasy teams are doing ok, my head to head team more than my roto league team. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 4-2. Let's see how.
Game1: Penny vs Zito, W 5-0.
Gamescores: Penny 67, Zito 35
Zito got destroyed
Game 2: Lowe vs Cain, W 3-2
Gamescores: Lowe 50, Cain 66
Furcal scores from 2nd on a grounder to Ray Durham to win the game.
Game 3: Kuo vs Valdez, L 1-2
Gamescores: Kuo 57, Valdez 60
Rain delays scratch Billingsley vs Lincecum, although both appear in relief.
Game 4: Kuroda vs Germano, W 7-1
Gamescores: Kuroda 71, Germano 67
Kuroda goes 7 on 77 pitches, Dodger offense comes alive
Game 5: Penny vs Peavy, L 1-4
Gamescores: Penny 38, Peavy 86
Doesn't that say it all? Peavy goes the distance allowing two hits.
Game 6: Lowe vs Young, W 3-2
Lowe 61, Young 64
Guess Hu beat Hoffman?
The Dodger bullpen was really the unsung hero. The offense didn't do a whole lot, and the starters were outdone for the most part.
Game1: Penny vs Zito, W 5-0.
Gamescores: Penny 67, Zito 35
Zito got destroyed
Game 2: Lowe vs Cain, W 3-2
Gamescores: Lowe 50, Cain 66
Furcal scores from 2nd on a grounder to Ray Durham to win the game.
Game 3: Kuo vs Valdez, L 1-2
Gamescores: Kuo 57, Valdez 60
Rain delays scratch Billingsley vs Lincecum, although both appear in relief.
Game 4: Kuroda vs Germano, W 7-1
Gamescores: Kuroda 71, Germano 67
Kuroda goes 7 on 77 pitches, Dodger offense comes alive
Game 5: Penny vs Peavy, L 1-4
Gamescores: Penny 38, Peavy 86
Doesn't that say it all? Peavy goes the distance allowing two hits.
Game 6: Lowe vs Young, W 3-2
Lowe 61, Young 64
Guess Hu beat Hoffman?
The Dodger bullpen was really the unsung hero. The offense didn't do a whole lot, and the starters were outdone for the most part.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
No Surprise
Juan Pierre had his agent call Pierre and demand more playing time. From Gurnick
But let's remember, Pierre did not lose the starting job until after Spring Training. Why? Because Joe Torre made the decision, because he's the $4million manager and Colletti wanted to pass the buck and wash his hands of the situation. And Torre, the $4million manager, doesn't have to make a decision in February. He's not supposed to look at video or statistics or scouting reports in the offseason, he's supposed to see them in person. So naturally he based it off of Spring Training. But I'll give Torre some credit - he tried Kemp and Ethier in center field - if Pierre's arm was keeping him in left, why not see if the other guys can play center?
But seriously, the current regime is not going to make judgements based on reasonable assessments.
The better Pierre performed in the oppurtunities he had? An 8 year major league career will tell you the type of player Juan Pierre is. Signing him for 5 years was a horrendous disaster, and Colletti refuses to admit that he might have been a little bit shortsighted. And stupid. Ethier had a great year and then a weak September when injured. Dave Roberts was available - you could bring back a popular ex-Dodger who's a similar player, and you could bench him too. Kenny Lofton could have been re-signed - especially when you knew Jones was a free agent the next year. But Colletti chose Pierre for 5 years, and was completely surprised by a relatively informed fan base who could figure that batting average doesn't matter without walking or power, unless it's like .330 or someting.
General manager Ned Colletti said he received a call from Pierre's agent asking for clarification of his role and Colletti said he delivered a message that the better Pierre performed in the opportunities he had, the more playing time he was likely to earn.
But let's remember, Pierre did not lose the starting job until after Spring Training. Why? Because Joe Torre made the decision, because he's the $4million manager and Colletti wanted to pass the buck and wash his hands of the situation. And Torre, the $4million manager, doesn't have to make a decision in February. He's not supposed to look at video or statistics or scouting reports in the offseason, he's supposed to see them in person. So naturally he based it off of Spring Training. But I'll give Torre some credit - he tried Kemp and Ethier in center field - if Pierre's arm was keeping him in left, why not see if the other guys can play center?
But seriously, the current regime is not going to make judgements based on reasonable assessments.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Time for Fantasy!
That's right, with the season starting, it's time for fantasy. And since I barely have time to write anything (but really need a post here), here's a few points quickly.
Why to do it
First of all, it will allow you to see what's going on all over the league. Sure A-Rod, Pujols, Santana, and the other first round dudes will put up great numbers. But where are you going to find that flier to pick up mid-season that will take off? Who will be Francisco Liriano or Hanley Ramirez for you?
Secondly, it reveals how a good night or a bad night can be determined by one hit, or even one walk. That enables you to get more points for a run, RBI, stolen base, etc.
Thirdly, it will demonstrate which statistics translate year to year and which ones do not. WHIP and K/9 translate more than ERA, etc. Some stats are dependent on the team more than the player (RBI, R, W, S) - look for #3 or #4 hitters for RBI and runs, even on worse teams.
How to do it
Go to any major sports site (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo!) and look for fantasy. Don't play for money, unless it's either so low that it's just enough to make the league more competitive, or if you're an expert and like gambling. But if you're an expert, would you be reading this?
Look at the scoring rules and lineup rules. CBS does weekly lineups, and ESPN and Yahoo! can do daily lineups (and allow for MUCH MORE customization). Scoring rules will depend on whether you do head to head or a rotisserie league. In a head to head league, you'll get points for different events, and in roto leagues, it's about being ahead in each category.
Find a league with a draft time that looks good. Then do a bit of research, and have fun!
Tips
Buy low, sell high. Don't trade if desperate for a player - look for free agents. Also watch for free agents that could be hot prospects that might do it. Be aware of a player's career trends - if he hits for decent average but is slumping early on, get him. If a player is hitting better than he will the rest of the year, ship him out. I swapped Kevin Youkilis for Ryan Howard last year in May.
Get closers, and keep starting pitchers on your bench, avoiding injury risks as position players. You can use starters when other starters aren't playing, or in weekly leagues, use pitchers with 2 starts over those with just 1.
And have fun!
Why to do it
First of all, it will allow you to see what's going on all over the league. Sure A-Rod, Pujols, Santana, and the other first round dudes will put up great numbers. But where are you going to find that flier to pick up mid-season that will take off? Who will be Francisco Liriano or Hanley Ramirez for you?
Secondly, it reveals how a good night or a bad night can be determined by one hit, or even one walk. That enables you to get more points for a run, RBI, stolen base, etc.
Thirdly, it will demonstrate which statistics translate year to year and which ones do not. WHIP and K/9 translate more than ERA, etc. Some stats are dependent on the team more than the player (RBI, R, W, S) - look for #3 or #4 hitters for RBI and runs, even on worse teams.
How to do it
Go to any major sports site (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo!) and look for fantasy. Don't play for money, unless it's either so low that it's just enough to make the league more competitive, or if you're an expert and like gambling. But if you're an expert, would you be reading this?
Look at the scoring rules and lineup rules. CBS does weekly lineups, and ESPN and Yahoo! can do daily lineups (and allow for MUCH MORE customization). Scoring rules will depend on whether you do head to head or a rotisserie league. In a head to head league, you'll get points for different events, and in roto leagues, it's about being ahead in each category.
Find a league with a draft time that looks good. Then do a bit of research, and have fun!
Tips
Buy low, sell high. Don't trade if desperate for a player - look for free agents. Also watch for free agents that could be hot prospects that might do it. Be aware of a player's career trends - if he hits for decent average but is slumping early on, get him. If a player is hitting better than he will the rest of the year, ship him out. I swapped Kevin Youkilis for Ryan Howard last year in May.
Get closers, and keep starting pitchers on your bench, avoiding injury risks as position players. You can use starters when other starters aren't playing, or in weekly leagues, use pitchers with 2 starts over those with just 1.
And have fun!
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