Markakis the 7th overall pick in 2003 while Ethier was a 2nd round pick that year. Markakis is a more athletic outfielder with a bit more power, and he's also a year and a half younger.
Let's run some numbers:
Markakis
2003 minors (Age 19, A-): .283/.374/.395
2004 minors (Age 20, A): .299/.373/.470
2005 minors (Age 21, A+/AA): .310/.390/.504
2006 majors: .291/.351/.448 (106 OPS+), .268 EqA, 7.1 WARP3
2007 majors: .300/.362/.485 (121 OPS+), .284 EqA, 9.6 WARP3
Ethier
2003 minors (Age 21, A-/A): .296/.364/.389
2004 minors (Age 22, A+): .314/.379/.442
2005 minors (Age 23, AA): .317/.384/.492
2006 majors: .308./365/.477 (113 OPS+), .282 EqA, 3.5 WARP3
2007 majors: .284/.350/.452 (103 OPS+), .267 EqA, 5.0 WARP3
The folks at B-P give a lot of credence to Markakis' superior defense, though to be fair, Ethier played better defense in 2007 when he did not hit as well. Even then, though, that would lead one to compare Markakis' 2006 to Ethier's 2007, and Markakis comes out on top by a couple of wins. Markakis also could potentially play center, something Ethier doesn't have in his arsenal.
Markakis is better, and has the level of talent to be a franchise player, provided that Baltimore can afford him in 4 years. That doesn't mean Ethier's a bad player, but he's not they kind of player you would build your team around.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Can Pierre be benched? Or - how to make $36 million matter
Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have in common that the Dodgers owe each of them $36 million for the remainder of their contracts. And that they were signed to play centerfield.
Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre
Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?
That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.
Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre
Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?
That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Crazy Trade Market
Just to show that you never know what will happen, Billy Beane sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 top prospects. Looking at this, the White Sox have a reasonable chance to improve in 2008. Consider the following:
Whitesox.com has Swisher as the starting Center Fielder on the White Sox depth chart. Carlos Quentin has some upside in left field, and Swisher will hit something along the lines of .270/.375/.470 or something like that. The southsiders will not start Uribe or Podsednik next year, and their lineup will look like this (presumably):
Cabrera
Swisher
Konerko
Thome
Dye
Pierzynski
Quentin
Crede
Richar
This should be an improvement, although it remains to be seen what will happen in that division. The Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The Royals blew $36 million on Jose Guillen. The Twins lost Torii Hunter to free agency and may trade Johan Santana (but they'd screw with everyone if they kept him and left him and Liriano atop the rotation). In Cleveland, the question of what happens to Paul Byrd is accompanied by will Pronk recover from merely being good back to being supremely super awesome? A better year from him could help ward off Detroit, especially with the 1-2 of Sabathia and Carmona.
Nonetheless, if Swisher can go, it would seem that anyone can go.
Whitesox.com has Swisher as the starting Center Fielder on the White Sox depth chart. Carlos Quentin has some upside in left field, and Swisher will hit something along the lines of .270/.375/.470 or something like that. The southsiders will not start Uribe or Podsednik next year, and their lineup will look like this (presumably):
Cabrera
Swisher
Konerko
Thome
Dye
Pierzynski
Quentin
Crede
Richar
This should be an improvement, although it remains to be seen what will happen in that division. The Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The Royals blew $36 million on Jose Guillen. The Twins lost Torii Hunter to free agency and may trade Johan Santana (but they'd screw with everyone if they kept him and left him and Liriano atop the rotation). In Cleveland, the question of what happens to Paul Byrd is accompanied by will Pronk recover from merely being good back to being supremely super awesome? A better year from him could help ward off Detroit, especially with the 1-2 of Sabathia and Carmona.
Nonetheless, if Swisher can go, it would seem that anyone can go.
Friday, December 28, 2007
On the Usefullness of the Mitchell Report
The Mitchell Report contains information about players using steroids, HGH, etc. Here is the run-down of all former Dodgers (major league team only), and the quality of their evidence:
Kevin Brown: Radomski says he supplied Brown with HGH and steroids several times, and even produced a copy of a USPS Express Mail package. Enough to arouse suspicion.
Chris Donnels: Admitted to using steroids, HGH, and other drugs. Check included as well. Suspicious.
Eric Gagne: Mentions LoDuca bought him some the first time and later Gagne bought some himself. Includes USPS Express Mail receipt. Suspicious.
Matt Herges: Referred by LoDuca, wrote "Thanks!" in memo line of check. Probably true.
Phil Hiatt: Bought steroids and HGH, no checks or USPS receipts. Not compelling enough.
Darren Holmes: Told reporters he ordered HGH but never used it. Cut and dry.
Todd Hundley: Radomski sold him stuff and knew him since 1988. Donnels said he talked to him about steroids and Radomski when on the Dodgers too. Prett solid testimony, although physical evidence would be nice.
Mike Judd: Dodgers AAA strength and conditioning guy observed Judd and LoDuca inject each other with steroids. Compelling.
Paul Lo Duca: Letters to Radomski, records, 3 checks in the appendix, and mentions of referrals and injections. HGH and Steroids. A whole lot of stuff on this guy, most likely to go to jail (or at least deserve to).
Adam Riggs: Used HGH & Steroids. Referred by LoDuca. Moneygram and checks. Strong evidence.
F.P. Santangelo: Used HGH & Steroids. Checks. Referred Piatt. Doesn't look good.
Gary Sheffield: Use the cream on his knees, referred to by Bonds, Greg Anderson. Admitted to it, sort of.
Ismael Valdez: Reported by SF Chronicle to have bought HGH. Not enough to go on, but he sucks.
Todd Williams: Radomski said he sold him steroids once in 2001. Not too compelling, but suspicious.
It is particularly interesting how few sources provided so much information, which would lead one to believe that there is definitely more to be found. However, one has to wonder why so much inconsistency for receipt copies, checks, etc for some players over others.
Kevin Brown: Radomski says he supplied Brown with HGH and steroids several times, and even produced a copy of a USPS Express Mail package. Enough to arouse suspicion.
Chris Donnels: Admitted to using steroids, HGH, and other drugs. Check included as well. Suspicious.
Eric Gagne: Mentions LoDuca bought him some the first time and later Gagne bought some himself. Includes USPS Express Mail receipt. Suspicious.
Matt Herges: Referred by LoDuca, wrote "Thanks!" in memo line of check. Probably true.
Phil Hiatt: Bought steroids and HGH, no checks or USPS receipts. Not compelling enough.
Darren Holmes: Told reporters he ordered HGH but never used it. Cut and dry.
Todd Hundley: Radomski sold him stuff and knew him since 1988. Donnels said he talked to him about steroids and Radomski when on the Dodgers too. Prett solid testimony, although physical evidence would be nice.
Mike Judd: Dodgers AAA strength and conditioning guy observed Judd and LoDuca inject each other with steroids. Compelling.
Paul Lo Duca: Letters to Radomski, records, 3 checks in the appendix, and mentions of referrals and injections. HGH and Steroids. A whole lot of stuff on this guy, most likely to go to jail (or at least deserve to).
Adam Riggs: Used HGH & Steroids. Referred by LoDuca. Moneygram and checks. Strong evidence.
F.P. Santangelo: Used HGH & Steroids. Checks. Referred Piatt. Doesn't look good.
Gary Sheffield: Use the cream on his knees, referred to by Bonds, Greg Anderson. Admitted to it, sort of.
Ismael Valdez: Reported by SF Chronicle to have bought HGH. Not enough to go on, but he sucks.
Todd Williams: Radomski said he sold him steroids once in 2001. Not too compelling, but suspicious.
It is particularly interesting how few sources provided so much information, which would lead one to believe that there is definitely more to be found. However, one has to wonder why so much inconsistency for receipt copies, checks, etc for some players over others.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Dodgers Year in Review 2007 - Pitching
For the starting rotation, you can categorize the pitchers in the following (ERA for that particular role):
Good Starters (518.3 IP, 85 GS)
Brad Penny (3.03 ERA) - helped most by allowing very few home runs (only 9), although his other peripheral stats (135K and 73BB in 208 IP) don't shine that much. Penny may very well regress a bit next year, but he has been more efficient, which may help that homer rate.
Derek Lowe (3.90 ERA)- tough luck year for Lowe, who went 12-14 with a 3.88 ERA, a weird record for a 118 ERA+. Lowe's sinker was sinking, his k rate was decent too. The big story was that he got injured for the first time in his career this year, and he might be getting a bit old.
Chad Billingsley (3.38 ERA) - in his age 22 season, Billingsley put up a 138 ERA+ in 147 innings. His three true outcome numbers all seemed to worsen a bit when he was put in the starter role, although his K rate remained good, and could reasonably be expected to improve in 2008.
Banged-up Starters (156.3 IP, 30 GS)
Jason Schmidt (6.31 ERA) - shoulder problems ended his season early, and affected his performance horribly. It is unclear what he will do in 2008.
Hong-Chi Kuo (6.75 ERA) - or Guo, to some people. Flashes of brilliance and a really awesome bat flip cannot change the fact that this Taiwanese lefthander is a constant injury risk with a history of elbow problems.
Randy Wolf (4.73 ERA) - sadly he came back from injury only to be injured again. When he was starting, though, he was generally good until he started to get hurt, as one can ascertain from his 94K in 102 IP. Nice curve, though.
Forgettable (242.3 IP, 47 GS)
Brett Tomko (5.56 ERA) - finally got released. He started 15 games for the Dodgers, and posted a 79 ERA+. Good riddance, although we'll miss his paintings.
Mark Hendrickson (6.13 ERA) - slightly better than Tomko. And taller. And left handed. But still, Hendrickson sucked and started 15 games.
Esteban Loaiza (8.34 ERA) - we bail out Billy Beane and pick him up off waivers. He really sucked and should go to the bullpen if he's even on the team. Big waste of money by Ned.
David Wells (5.12 ERA) - fat fat fatty. Nothing special as a pitcher, but made us all laugh by bunting his way on base.
Eric Stults (5.68 ERA) - an option down in AAA, but not one you would really depend on regularly.
Essentially, the Dodgers had 3 good starters and a lot of bad ones. If Kuroda can put up at least a 4.5 ERA and Schmidt can make 20 healthy starts, the rotation should be quite solid.
Bullpen
Didn't know you were here
Derek Lowe um yeah, he's a starter
Yhency Brazoban - the new dreifort
Hong-Chi Kuo - he should be a starter, when he's healthy
Eric Hull - not bad in a brief stint
Jon Meloan - didn't impress in the majors in a brief stint, but he's still young
Eric Stults - not really impressive here, but didn't do much out of the pen
Blah
Brett Tomko - Tomko sucked out of the pen too. He was decent in this role last year, but his failure here forced Colletti to release him.
Roberto Hernandez - what the hell? The dude is 40 and bad.
A List
Saito - awesome, awesome, awesome. Will make you believe closers matter again.
Broxton - A great pitcher at the back of the pen, and will be a great closer himself someday.
Billingsley - earned a promotion by being lights out in the pen
A-/B+ List
Beimel - Beimel continued to be a great piece to have in the bullpen, useful against lefthanders or righthanders, as a lefty relief pitcher should be.
Proctor - not bad, I'll admit. While I don't think he was worth Betemit, he still makes the bullpen a lot deeper.
Hendrickson - surprisingly effective as a reliever, including a K/BB over 4. As long as he doesn't insist on starting, he should be good.
Seanez - a surprise this year, pitching quite effectively at age 38 or so.
Houlton - not bad, but don't expect him to be a regular reliever.
Tsao - were it not for the injury, would be in the A list. Retired 24 straight batters or something and was phenomenal to start the season.
Good Starters (518.3 IP, 85 GS)
Brad Penny (3.03 ERA) - helped most by allowing very few home runs (only 9), although his other peripheral stats (135K and 73BB in 208 IP) don't shine that much. Penny may very well regress a bit next year, but he has been more efficient, which may help that homer rate.
Derek Lowe (3.90 ERA)- tough luck year for Lowe, who went 12-14 with a 3.88 ERA, a weird record for a 118 ERA+. Lowe's sinker was sinking, his k rate was decent too. The big story was that he got injured for the first time in his career this year, and he might be getting a bit old.
Chad Billingsley (3.38 ERA) - in his age 22 season, Billingsley put up a 138 ERA+ in 147 innings. His three true outcome numbers all seemed to worsen a bit when he was put in the starter role, although his K rate remained good, and could reasonably be expected to improve in 2008.
Banged-up Starters (156.3 IP, 30 GS)
Jason Schmidt (6.31 ERA) - shoulder problems ended his season early, and affected his performance horribly. It is unclear what he will do in 2008.
Hong-Chi Kuo (6.75 ERA) - or Guo, to some people. Flashes of brilliance and a really awesome bat flip cannot change the fact that this Taiwanese lefthander is a constant injury risk with a history of elbow problems.
Randy Wolf (4.73 ERA) - sadly he came back from injury only to be injured again. When he was starting, though, he was generally good until he started to get hurt, as one can ascertain from his 94K in 102 IP. Nice curve, though.
Forgettable (242.3 IP, 47 GS)
Brett Tomko (5.56 ERA) - finally got released. He started 15 games for the Dodgers, and posted a 79 ERA+. Good riddance, although we'll miss his paintings.
Mark Hendrickson (6.13 ERA) - slightly better than Tomko. And taller. And left handed. But still, Hendrickson sucked and started 15 games.
Esteban Loaiza (8.34 ERA) - we bail out Billy Beane and pick him up off waivers. He really sucked and should go to the bullpen if he's even on the team. Big waste of money by Ned.
David Wells (5.12 ERA) - fat fat fatty. Nothing special as a pitcher, but made us all laugh by bunting his way on base.
Eric Stults (5.68 ERA) - an option down in AAA, but not one you would really depend on regularly.
Essentially, the Dodgers had 3 good starters and a lot of bad ones. If Kuroda can put up at least a 4.5 ERA and Schmidt can make 20 healthy starts, the rotation should be quite solid.
Bullpen
Didn't know you were here
Derek Lowe um yeah, he's a starter
Yhency Brazoban - the new dreifort
Hong-Chi Kuo - he should be a starter, when he's healthy
Eric Hull - not bad in a brief stint
Jon Meloan - didn't impress in the majors in a brief stint, but he's still young
Eric Stults - not really impressive here, but didn't do much out of the pen
Blah
Brett Tomko - Tomko sucked out of the pen too. He was decent in this role last year, but his failure here forced Colletti to release him.
Roberto Hernandez - what the hell? The dude is 40 and bad.
A List
Saito - awesome, awesome, awesome. Will make you believe closers matter again.
Broxton - A great pitcher at the back of the pen, and will be a great closer himself someday.
Billingsley - earned a promotion by being lights out in the pen
A-/B+ List
Beimel - Beimel continued to be a great piece to have in the bullpen, useful against lefthanders or righthanders, as a lefty relief pitcher should be.
Proctor - not bad, I'll admit. While I don't think he was worth Betemit, he still makes the bullpen a lot deeper.
Hendrickson - surprisingly effective as a reliever, including a K/BB over 4. As long as he doesn't insist on starting, he should be good.
Seanez - a surprise this year, pitching quite effectively at age 38 or so.
Houlton - not bad, but don't expect him to be a regular reliever.
Tsao - were it not for the injury, would be in the A list. Retired 24 straight batters or something and was phenomenal to start the season.
Friday, December 21, 2007
T.O. Makes excuses for his teammate
I'm not a general sports blogger, but this was just funny.
The headline was probably the real news here in this story:
The headline was probably the real news here in this story:
IRVING, Texas (AP) - sportsminute Terrell Owens has a message for Jessica Simpson: Stay away. The 27- year-old singer-actress has become Public Enemy No. 1 among Dallas Cowboys fans because of a link being made between her appearance at Sunday's game and the poor performance of her new boyfriend, quarterback Tony Romo.Could there possibly be another explanation?
The Cowboys lost 10-6 to the Philadelphia Eagles and Romo had what was statistically the worst game of his career, all while Simpson sat in a luxury box wearing a pink No. 9 jersey she proudly showed off for television cameras.The problem for her is, Romo's previous worst game came last December at home to the Eagles when then-girlfriend Carrie Underwood was in attendance.
Way to go, AP, and Drudge for linking to this.
Friday, December 14, 2007
First Glance at the Mitchell Report
When you consider how many steroid users in baseball got their stuff from Kirk Radomski alone, it becomes apparent that this is but the tip of the iceberg. It's also quite staggering to see how many people left such and obvious paper trail - gives the impression that players weren't that embarrassed to be steroid users. Or that baseball players are the biggest idiots in the world - Larry Bigbie wrote "supplements" on the subject line of a check. What a moron.
The evidence itself ranges from hearsay to damning.
Clemens stands out in particular because his section is so long. Most damning is that he was particularly close to Brian McNamee, even convincing the Yankees to hire him in 2000. McNamee's story is that he stuck a needle in Clemens' butt multiple times to give him steroids.
The inclusion of checks, priority mail packing slips, etc, shows how much of a paper trail Radomski kept. Do all steroids dealers keep such extensive records? Seemingly, Radomski felt if he had to go down, he'd take everyone else down with him.
The evidence itself ranges from hearsay to damning.
Clemens stands out in particular because his section is so long. Most damning is that he was particularly close to Brian McNamee, even convincing the Yankees to hire him in 2000. McNamee's story is that he stuck a needle in Clemens' butt multiple times to give him steroids.
The inclusion of checks, priority mail packing slips, etc, shows how much of a paper trail Radomski kept. Do all steroids dealers keep such extensive records? Seemingly, Radomski felt if he had to go down, he'd take everyone else down with him.
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