Since nobody reads this, I'll go ahead and post stuff about my fantasy team, so then I can see a record of how I did in the future. So I will always remember it.
A friend of mine wanted to create a league so he used CBS's comissioner setup. CBS sets up baseball lineups weekly - daily lineups make it too easy to manipulate starting pitchers. This is a bit of a challenge: Joba vs the Royals or a 2 start week for Dan Haren? The scoring is a hybrid of 5x5 roto and head to head - you challenge your opponent in the 5x5 categories. Most H2H leagues use a sillier version of linear weights.
Just so you know, you should play fantasy baseball so you can learn about the rest of the league. Why the hell are the Rays so good? Will Troy Tulowitzki recover (and why wasn't he the rookie of the year) and be the awesome SS we saw in 2007? Why do they call Matt Kemp the Bison (you could check Wikipedia, actually).
My lineup in that league:
Bengie Molina - C
Jorge Posada - C
Prince Fielder - 1B
Chase Utley - 2B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Evan Longoria - 3B
Jack Cust - OF
Andre Ethier - OF
Curtis Granderson - OF
Matt Kemp - OF
Torii Hunter - OF
Cameron Maybin - U
Rafael Furcal - U
Pitchers
Erik Bedard
Jonathan Broxton
Joba Chaimberlain
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
James Shields
Adam Wainwright
Bench
Clayton Kershaw
Oliver Perez
Cody Ross
Richie Weeks
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Friday, April 3, 2009
Yeah, we signed Manny since my last post
Expect the following lineup regularly, after a while:
Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake
although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like
Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake
but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.
Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.
There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.
Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake
although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like
Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake
but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.
Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.
There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.
Why I Hate Blogging
I have about as many drafts as I do posts, which pop up everytime I open Blogger. It's annoying - blogging is more work than one would imagine. I like to have link-happy posts with in-depth analysis or something like that. But that's not easy, as it turns out. So that's what happens when I go months without updating.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
O-Dog, Can You See
The Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a 1 year deal, making the Casey Blake 3 year deal look like the worst move of the offseason, except for giving AJ Burnett 5 years when he'll spend at least two of them on the DL.
This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.
As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.
If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)
Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)
And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.
I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.
This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.
As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.
If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)
Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)
And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.
I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.
Friday, February 6, 2009
2009 NL Predictions on Feb 6, 2009
NL East:
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
The Nats landed Dunn, but that will not help much. Picking up Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson would have been good moves, but the club is committed to building from its farm system. More Dukes and less Kearns would be nice too. Too many players couldn't hit - the pitching staff was subpar, but that offense could not get anything going. The Phillies will not win the division, and I blame it all on Chan Ho Park. He will give up 50 homers in 2009. The Braves signed Derek Lowe, but we should remember they're down Tim Hudson.
NL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds
The Cubs kinda stagnated with their club, the Brewers fell, and nobody else really seemed to do anything this offseason. St Louis should get a healthy Carpenter back at some point, and that will give them the edge. Unless Pujols needs TJ surgery.
NL West
Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres
Paul Depodesta's impact can be seen as San Diego keeps acquiring players that would have fit well with the 2005 Dodgers. Orlando Hudson will be missed in Arizona, and Randy Johnson will be welcome in San Francisco. Arizona, LA and SF have decent rotations, but if RJ is healthy and Zito maintains his 2nd half form along with Cain and Lincecum, the Giants will be tough to score on, at least. Although Edgar Renteria will be a defensive downgrade from even 104-year-old Omar Vizquel. This also assumes, of course, the Dodgers sign Manny.
Postseason:
Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Phillies in 4
Dodgers over Cubs in 6
And watch this fall on its face.
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
The Nats landed Dunn, but that will not help much. Picking up Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson would have been good moves, but the club is committed to building from its farm system. More Dukes and less Kearns would be nice too. Too many players couldn't hit - the pitching staff was subpar, but that offense could not get anything going. The Phillies will not win the division, and I blame it all on Chan Ho Park. He will give up 50 homers in 2009. The Braves signed Derek Lowe, but we should remember they're down Tim Hudson.
NL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds
The Cubs kinda stagnated with their club, the Brewers fell, and nobody else really seemed to do anything this offseason. St Louis should get a healthy Carpenter back at some point, and that will give them the edge. Unless Pujols needs TJ surgery.
NL West
Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres
Paul Depodesta's impact can be seen as San Diego keeps acquiring players that would have fit well with the 2005 Dodgers. Orlando Hudson will be missed in Arizona, and Randy Johnson will be welcome in San Francisco. Arizona, LA and SF have decent rotations, but if RJ is healthy and Zito maintains his 2nd half form along with Cain and Lincecum, the Giants will be tough to score on, at least. Although Edgar Renteria will be a defensive downgrade from even 104-year-old Omar Vizquel. This also assumes, of course, the Dodgers sign Manny.
Postseason:
Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Phillies in 4
Dodgers over Cubs in 6
And watch this fall on its face.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Room for Improvement? Part 1 - Offense
How will the Dodgers improve over last season, besides a full season of Manny Ramirez? Well, let's look position by position, but just at offense for now.
Team
6194 PA, 264/.333/.399, 126 SB/43 CS, 137 HR/543BB/1032K
Catcher
Russell Martin - 650 PA, .280/.385/.396, 18 SB/6 CS, 13 HR/90BB/83K
Others - 80 PA, .213/.263/.320, 0 SB/0 CS, 2 HR/4BB/12K
Martin can have a better season by having a better backup catcher and batting 6th, where he'll have a few less PAs. The bar is low enough any replacement level player should beat it. Brad Ausmus needs to look a bit more alive, but maybe Torre will like him enough to give him some PT.
First Base
James Loney - 651 PA, .289/.338/.434, 7 SB/4 CS, 13 HR/45BB/85K
Loney was in his first season as a full time first baseman, and came up an averagish hitter overall. He hit fewer homers in a little more than half the plate appearances, reflecting that fewer of his fly balls were going long. Loney is also a much better hitter away from Dodger Stadium, so one idea would be to give him his off days at home. Still, he should rebound to about an .800-.820 OPS, particularly as his LD% stays over 20%, and he just turns 25 this coming season. One item of note: Loney's platoon splits in 2008 appeared quite dreadful, while in 2007 they looked more favorable. Loney's BABIP vs lefties was .273 this year, compared to a .311 mark for his ML career and a .323 mark overall, so one would expect some improvement.
Second Base and Third Base
Jeff Kent - 474 PA, 280/.327/.418, 0 SB/1 CS, 12HR/25BB/52K
Blake DeWitt - 421 PA, 264/.344/.383, 3SB/0CS, 9HR/45BB/68K
Casey Blake - 233 PA, 251/.313/.460, 1 SB/0 CS, 10 HR/16BB/52K
Casey Blake - 233 PA, 251/.313/.460, 1 SB/0 CS, 10 HR/16BB/52K
To understand the situation, Casey Blake will play a full year and Jeff Kent will retire. Casey tends to have one or two months with ridiculous BABIP which carry his season, and the rest of the time he'll have like a .240 average on balls in play. The Dodgers never got any of his high BABIP stuff, but fortunately he showed he could still hit a long ball here and there. In a full season one would expect his average and OBP to be up by about .20, although his slugging likely won't go up.
Shortstop
Angel Berroa - 256 PA, .230/.304/.310, 0 SB/0 CS, 1 HR/20BB/41K
Nomar Garciaparra - 181 PA, 264/.326/.466, 1 SB/1CS, 8 HR/15 BB/11 K
Rafael Furcal - 164 PA, .357/.439/.573, 8 SB/3 CS, 5 HR/20 BB/17 K
Chin-Lung Hu - 129 PA, .181/.252/.233, 2 SB/0 CS, 0 HR/11BB/23K
OVERALL - .258/.331/.394
Nomar looks like he still has something left as a bench player, but he might retire rather than realize what he has left. Meanwhile, Berroa and Hu stunk up the joint more than Nomar or Furcal could make it look good, reducing the performance to something resembling Furcal's 2007 season. A return to 2006 form would be what the Dodgers would hope for, but it remains to be seen what will happen with his health. It also remains to be seen what DeJesus/Hu/Abreu can do for the middle infield, particularly after Hu fixes his eyes.
Outfield
Kemp - 657, .290/.340/.459, 35/11, 18/46/153
Ethier - 596, .305/.375/.510, 6/3, 20/59/88
Pierre - 406, .283/.327/.328. 40/12, 1/22/24
Jones - 238, .158/.256/.249, 0/1, 3/27/76
Ramirez - 229, .396/.489/.743, 2/0, 17/35/38
Young - 143, .246/.321/.341, 0/0, 1/14/34
The good news is Andruw Jones will be gone. The bad news is that Manny Ramirez is not under contract yet. The Dodgers would improve immensely with an outfield of Manny-Kemp-Ethier, but without Manny, they would need to sign Abreu or Griffey just to break even. Dunn would improve them. Ethier might drop off a bit, but seems to be dependable for something around .300/.360/.490. Matt Kemp could take off this year with newly improved plate patience and begin racking up home run totals. Juan Pierre as the left fielder will cause a slight decrease in offense unless Kemp makes up the difference.
Current Lineup:
Furcal - ss
Martin - c
Kemp - cf
Ethier - rf
Blake - 3b
Loney - 1b
DeWitt - 2b
Pierre - lf
Shortstop
Angel Berroa - 256 PA, .230/.304/.310, 0 SB/0 CS, 1 HR/20BB/41K
Nomar Garciaparra - 181 PA, 264/.326/.466, 1 SB/1CS, 8 HR/15 BB/11 K
Rafael Furcal - 164 PA, .357/.439/.573, 8 SB/3 CS, 5 HR/20 BB/17 K
Chin-Lung Hu - 129 PA, .181/.252/.233, 2 SB/0 CS, 0 HR/11BB/23K
OVERALL - .258/.331/.394
Nomar looks like he still has something left as a bench player, but he might retire rather than realize what he has left. Meanwhile, Berroa and Hu stunk up the joint more than Nomar or Furcal could make it look good, reducing the performance to something resembling Furcal's 2007 season. A return to 2006 form would be what the Dodgers would hope for, but it remains to be seen what will happen with his health. It also remains to be seen what DeJesus/Hu/Abreu can do for the middle infield, particularly after Hu fixes his eyes.
Outfield
Kemp - 657, .290/.340/.459, 35/11, 18/46/153
Ethier - 596, .305/.375/.510, 6/3, 20/59/88
Pierre - 406, .283/.327/.328. 40/12, 1/22/24
Jones - 238, .158/.256/.249, 0/1, 3/27/76
Ramirez - 229, .396/.489/.743, 2/0, 17/35/38
Young - 143, .246/.321/.341, 0/0, 1/14/34
The good news is Andruw Jones will be gone. The bad news is that Manny Ramirez is not under contract yet. The Dodgers would improve immensely with an outfield of Manny-Kemp-Ethier, but without Manny, they would need to sign Abreu or Griffey just to break even. Dunn would improve them. Ethier might drop off a bit, but seems to be dependable for something around .300/.360/.490. Matt Kemp could take off this year with newly improved plate patience and begin racking up home run totals. Juan Pierre as the left fielder will cause a slight decrease in offense unless Kemp makes up the difference.
Current Lineup:
Furcal - ss
Martin - c
Kemp - cf
Ethier - rf
Blake - 3b
Loney - 1b
DeWitt - 2b
Pierre - lf
Friday, December 19, 2008
The last 6 spots on the Roster
As it is, the Dodgers have 6 more spots to fill on the 25 man roster. Here's who's already there:
SP(3): Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw
RP (4): Jonathan Broxton, Corey Wade, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chi Kuo,
C (1): Russell Martin
INF (6): James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Mark Loretta, Delwyn Young
OF (5): Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Jason Repko
There is a vacancy for one more infielder, a backup catcher, two relief pitchers (late inning short reliever and long reliever), and two starting pitchers.
Backup Catcher
This is not an important position, except that Russell Martin will be driven into the ground by age 30 if he doesn't get a good one. We are constantly told Martin is tough and durable, but he still plays like he's out of gas in September. Martin has a career .806 OPS, which by month breaks down to .876/.814/.825/.816/.767/.755
That performance is indicated in the above chart. Basically, he's a superstar in April, and a natural pick for the all-star team, but the lack of a good backup brings him down. That and the stupidity of the manager. Our best options are as follows:
Paul LoDuca - familiar, kind of a light hitter, implicated in Mitchell Report
Pudge Rodriguez - excellent defender, no plate discipline, would cost money, might not accept backup job, but would get plenty of PT
Michael Barrett - only a couple years removed from being a good catcher. Suddenly lost ability to hit for average. Still only 32, though he's been in the majors for a decade. Probably a good pick.
Greg Zaun - about 25% CS, power fading, good for a .340 OBP
Of those options, I'd go with Barrett. He'd look to pick up more playing time later in the season, and he's a good enough hitter that Martin would possibly only catch 120 games, which would make him a better hitter.
Two Starting Pitchers
The expectation here is one guy who could be counted on to last a whole season and one injury prone guy to make room for McDonald to start. I'll also predict the Dodgers sign one guy to a 1 year deal (possibly with an option) and one guy with a multi year deal. For the injury prone guy, I present the following candidates:
Pedro Martinez - all time leader in ERA+
Randy Johnson - all time leader in height
Ben Sheets - all time leader in being a fun interview
Curt Schilling - Joe Torre's nemesis from 2001, 2004, 2007
And here are some guys who seem like they could last a decent amount of time:
Andy Pettitte - Roger Clemens' buddy
Derek Lowe - underpaid the last 4 years, prepare to overpay him
Jon Garland - delightfully medicore starter, but good for 200 IP
My choice would be a 3 year, $45 million deal for Lowe and a 1 year, $10 million deal for Pedro (with $10 million team option or $2 million buyout).
Relief Pitchers
I don't think there's any reason to try to go for anyone other than an in-house option here. McDonald as the 7th inning guy and Stults as the long man seems like the most logical thing.
25th man
I go with Chin-Lung Hu. I think the guy could be useful as a pinch hitter or late inning replacement.
As for getting Manny Ramirez, I'd rule it out unless we trade Juan Pierre and/or Andruw Jones. After all, the Yankees are looking for a CF...
SP(3): Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw
RP (4): Jonathan Broxton, Corey Wade, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chi Kuo,
C (1): Russell Martin
INF (6): James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Mark Loretta, Delwyn Young
OF (5): Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Jason Repko
There is a vacancy for one more infielder, a backup catcher, two relief pitchers (late inning short reliever and long reliever), and two starting pitchers.
Backup Catcher
This is not an important position, except that Russell Martin will be driven into the ground by age 30 if he doesn't get a good one. We are constantly told Martin is tough and durable, but he still plays like he's out of gas in September. Martin has a career .806 OPS, which by month breaks down to .876/.814/.825/.816/.767/.755
That performance is indicated in the above chart. Basically, he's a superstar in April, and a natural pick for the all-star team, but the lack of a good backup brings him down. That and the stupidity of the manager. Our best options are as follows:Paul LoDuca - familiar, kind of a light hitter, implicated in Mitchell Report
Pudge Rodriguez - excellent defender, no plate discipline, would cost money, might not accept backup job, but would get plenty of PT
Michael Barrett - only a couple years removed from being a good catcher. Suddenly lost ability to hit for average. Still only 32, though he's been in the majors for a decade. Probably a good pick.
Greg Zaun - about 25% CS, power fading, good for a .340 OBP
Of those options, I'd go with Barrett. He'd look to pick up more playing time later in the season, and he's a good enough hitter that Martin would possibly only catch 120 games, which would make him a better hitter.
Two Starting Pitchers
The expectation here is one guy who could be counted on to last a whole season and one injury prone guy to make room for McDonald to start. I'll also predict the Dodgers sign one guy to a 1 year deal (possibly with an option) and one guy with a multi year deal. For the injury prone guy, I present the following candidates:
Pedro Martinez - all time leader in ERA+
Randy Johnson - all time leader in height
Ben Sheets - all time leader in being a fun interview
Curt Schilling - Joe Torre's nemesis from 2001, 2004, 2007
And here are some guys who seem like they could last a decent amount of time:
Andy Pettitte - Roger Clemens' buddy
Derek Lowe - underpaid the last 4 years, prepare to overpay him
Jon Garland - delightfully medicore starter, but good for 200 IP
My choice would be a 3 year, $45 million deal for Lowe and a 1 year, $10 million deal for Pedro (with $10 million team option or $2 million buyout).
Relief Pitchers
I don't think there's any reason to try to go for anyone other than an in-house option here. McDonald as the 7th inning guy and Stults as the long man seems like the most logical thing.
25th man
I go with Chin-Lung Hu. I think the guy could be useful as a pinch hitter or late inning replacement.
As for getting Manny Ramirez, I'd rule it out unless we trade Juan Pierre and/or Andruw Jones. After all, the Yankees are looking for a CF...
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