What's with Gil Meche?

Gil Meche was signed for 5 years, $55 million by Dayton Moore last year, and everyone thought that was stupid. They're not wrong yet, but Meche has shown noticeable improvement.

Out of his first 6 starts, 5 have been "quality starts" (at least 6 IP, 3 ER or less). More to the point, he's 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA, although it should be noted that he's surrendered 6 unearned runs (compared to only 10 earned runs). So that looks really really good.

So what is different about Gil Meche?

1. He may prove to be more durable as a starter, because thus far he has 15.19 pitches per inning, down from 17.32 career, so it's not unthinkable to consider that he could continue to go deep into games. At that, he has not thrown more than 111 pitches.
   
2. Meche's K/9 rate is no different from his career rate, but his BB/9 is currently 1.96, compared to 3.91 career. That's half of the walks he usually allows.
3. Meche has a career GO/AO (ground out/air out ratio) of .96; this year it's 2.1. This is an extroardinary change to being a groundball pitcher, and if he can sustain that, he'll reduce the number of balls hit hard against him, and thus his opponent's slugging average. As it stands, opponents are batting a staggering .283/.324/.390, compared to .261/.339/.427. Even with a ridiculous .283 opponent's average (which should drop off quite a bit) which is well above average, he's letting fewer people on base, and they are not hitting the ball nearly as hard. This would certainly correspond to his drop in home run rate, as that's now down to 1 every 10.25 innings from about 1 every 8.
   
4. His H/9 is actually up this year, so it is not unthinkable to think that he could improve a bit.

It's really looking quite promising for the guy, but it should be noted that he's historically a bit better in the first half (though a lot of that is due to a history of really good Junes). Meche has had months where he's had a comparable ERA, but he's never pitched 41 innings in a month with 6 starts or fewer. I'm not going to say he's the best offseason move the Royals have ever made, but he certainly had a noteworthy month.

On the coming trade for Adam Dunn

The Reds cannot simply wait for Griffey to get injured in order to fit the hot and mighty Josh Hamilton into their lineup. The fact is that they've got a surplus of talented outfielders, and just as they did with Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, they will trade for pitching, and the likely target is Adam Dunn, since his contract is up next year, and GM Wayne Krivsky has said he doesn't like strikeouts.

Dunn is what some call a Three True Outcomes (3TO) player, because when he's at the bat he'll either strike out, walk, or hit the ball out of the park. The downside for many is that he'll strike out so much that his batting average will suffer quite a bit. This is true, but what is unseen is that Dunn also walks a whole lot. Adam Dunn had only 131 hits last year, but he had 112 walks; that's 245 times on base, which is 9 more than this leadoff man who "gets on base an awful lot" and played 162 games last year. Of course, Dunn also hits the ball very hard when he makes contact; over his career, 363 of his 716 hits have been for extra bases, which is a bit over 50%, so those hits are generally quite useful.

The Dodgers desperately need a power bat, and they'd be willing to part with a pitcher for Dunn. If they're smart, they'll offer Randy Wolf, who appears to be making a great comeback season, and his contract is over next year. If they're slightly less smart, they'll offer Brad Penny, who is a bargain for the next few years for his performance. If they're really stupid, they'll offer Chad Billingsley for a rental of Dunn; Kuo's injury-ridden history would allow me to accept trading him, though.

All that would need to be done next would be to make a significant package for Andruw Jones that involves shipping out Juan Pierre, or a similar trade for Torii Hunter. Then sign one, based on where you want Matt Kemp to play, right or center field.

There's no way Colletti will trade for A-Rod; the guy is a Boras client with an opt-out clause, and Colletti will not feel safe with that.

The series against Pittsburgh

That was some absolutely foul baseball. Downright awful I tell you. But the Dodgers won two out of three.

GAME 1
Dodgers 10, Pirates 2
Wolf 65, Armas 10

I have to admit that this was a rather enjoyable game. LA absolutely dominated Pittsburgh in the contest; there was no contest. Wolf struck out 10 over 6 innings, so he gets player of the game honors.

Game 2
Dodgers 7, Pirates 3
Penny 49, Snell 60

Watching Gameday made it clear that Cowboy Joe West had a poor judgement of the strike zone. A very poor judgement. So poor, in fact, that Grady Little got himself thrown out of a game. That was only the second time Grady has done that, and each time there was some poor umpiring. But Penny still managed to go 6 innings, and the Dodgers were lucky enough to win on a Martin grand slam.

Game 3
Pirates 7, Dodgers 5
Tomko 45, Gorzelanny 54

The worst defense ever, quite possibly. Martin fumbled the ball, at one point, which apparently inspired a chain reaction. Pierre made an error on one play, and then misplayed an out into a double on another, so Tomko should have been better off than he was. The Dodgers could have won this game were it not for Pierre's adventures in the outfield, although Billingsley had a poor showing as well. But he has a lower ERA than Jason Schmidt, so I'll give him some time. Unfortunately, not enough of a rally to pull it off this time.

Team Stats as of 4/21/07

The Dodgers are in first place and have the best record in MLB, so I figured I'd see how they stack against other teams in team pitching and hitting categories. What could be said to be fueling their particular success?

So I'll use the following for the team over all, and also splits for starters and bullpen.
ERA
WHIP
K/9
K/BB
HR rate

Additionally, I'll also look at IP/GS and an adjusted save percentage of (SV+HLD)/(SVO+HLD), since if you blow the lead in a hold situation it's called a blown save.

On the offensive end, I'll look at ranks in runs scored, runs batted in, BA/OBP/SLG, and splits with RISP.

So here it is:

DODGERS TEAM PITCHING STATS

Starters:
ERA: 3.29 (6th)
WHIP: 1.42 (17th)
K/9: 6.42 (13th)
K/BB: 1.80 (18th)
IP/HR: 15.95 (tied for 3rd)
IP/start: 5.6 innings

Relievers:
ERA: 2.32 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.05 (2nd)
K/9: 7.95 (9th)
K/BB: 3.20 (1st)
IP/HR: 18.1 (7th)
adjusted SV%: 92%

Whole Team:
ERA: 2.94 (4th)
WHIP: 1.29 (12th)
K/9: 7.02 (9th)
K/BB: 2.17 (7th)
IP/HR: 16.7 (3rd)

NOW THE HITTERS

OVERALL
.271/.337/.390 (5th/10th/15th), 9 HR (25th), 84 R (3rd), 80 RBI (3rd)

RISP
.297/.380/.439 (5th/7th/10th), 73 R (2nd), 69 RBI (1st, tie)

Nobody out
.289/.360/.416 (7th/3rd/13th), 22 R (4th, tie), 22 RBI (3rd)

1 out
.301/.359/.440 (3rd/5th/5th), 35 R (2nd, tie), 34 RBI (2nd)

2 out
.216/.283/.304 (26th/26th/28th), 27 R (15th), 24 RBI (17th)

RISP, 2 Out
.226/.333/.387 (17th/17th/14th)

Last coupla serieses

I have to say I was impressed with the 4 games on the road, winning 3 out of 4. The most pleasant surprise was Mark Hendrickson's start.

I'll put up detail on the Pirates series when it's done, but for now I'll just do some quick stuff:

Game 1: Dodgers vs Arizona
Result: win 5-2
Penny 62, Gonzalez 37

Game 2: Dodgers vs Arizona
Result: win 6-4
Tomko 36, Owings 43

Game 3: Dodgers vs Rockies
Result: lose 2-7
Lowe 29, Lopez 51

This game was particularly disturbing because Rodrigo Lopez pitched well against LA again, and even worse, Derek Lowe couldn't give as good a start as Brett Tomko, so the Dodgers lost.

Game 4: Dodgers vs Rockies
Result: win 5-1
Hendrickson 56, Cook 44

Not a bad game by Hendrickson. He was making a spot start, so his pitch count was limited; he would have hit the 60s if he had another inning, likely.

The Dodgers go into the series against Pittsburgh 11-5, and will likely be 12-5 not to long after I finish this post.

Jackie Robinson

The guy was flat-out good, no question about it. Had the Dodgers gotten him 5 years earlier, though, imagine how much of the 1940s they could have dominated.

Jackie Robinson did a lot for baseball to break the color barrier. For one thing, he was good. He had to be good, after all; the Dodgers would take quite a risk in putting him on the team, including trading some racist players who couldn't handle playing alongside him. To be good, he would need not only his normal talent, but he couldn't be phased by anything that would come up, including taunts from opposing teams' fans, players, etc, and that's to say the very least. Duke Snider notes that Robinson was a very tough figure, and that mental toughness was necessary to make the transition to playing in the majors, particularly as the first black player in MLB.

Another thing that should not be forgotten is how good a player he was. Robinson was one of the premier players at second base not only in his day, but all-time. Robinson had the 6th highest OBP of second baseman in MLB all time, behind only:
Rogers Hornsby,
Eddie Collins,
Max Bishop,
Cupid Childs,
Eddie Stanky
and of those players, only Hornsby had a higher career slugging percentage.

As far as defense goes, Robinson played his most games at second base and third base, putting up a Rate2 of 110 and 116 at those positions, respectively (compare to Hornsby's career mark of 99 at 2nd; note that Rate2 is such that 100 is considered average at the position).

But that aside, Robinson was a bold man and a leader, and he is an inspiration to anyone who wants to overcome prejudices to succeed. There have been great players that play the game, but not in the same circumstances, so it is only natural that there is no Babe Ruth day, etc. Robinson's contribution is so unique, MLB is right to honor him in such a way.

Series 2 - San Francisco Giants

Well, the Giants didn't put up as much of a fight as one would expect in a rivalry. Fact is, they're pretty bad, and too old. Durham's got a good bit of pop for a 2b, but you don't want him to be higher than a 5 guy, though. Bonds will keep getting walked I guess, but the guy is just an injury or an indictment away from making you look weak. Ryan Klesko? Come on, now five or six years ago I'd say sure, but Klesko's clearly past his prime.

And with all the money they spent on Barry Zito, they also had Russ Ortiz start. All they had to do was get Lance Niekro to throw a knuckleball. It was good to see Russ back, though, walking in a run.

It was also nice to see Gonzalez finally make a positive contribution with his two homer game on Sunday. Juan Pierre, however, has yet to impress me, and I doubt he will. And I know Wilson Valdez can't keep it up. But whatever. Sweep of the Giants, you gotta love it.

GAME 1:
Dodgers 2, Giants 1.
Penny 53 Lowry 61

This game featured one of the funniest runs all season. Matt Kemp singles on a grounder to the pitcher, then reaches second on an error. Kemp then makes it to third on a wild pitch, and finally he scores on a fielder's choice attempt, as he avoids the tag. Reminds me of a little league play from when I was 8 and hit an inside-the-park home run. I was on the Athletics.


GAME 2:
Dodgers 4, Giants 1
Lowe 64, Ortiz 42

Russ Ortiz wasn't completely terrible, but maybe he was and the Dodger offense made him look good. After watching Sheets in his second start of the season, I'm thinking that maybe the Dodgers will be lucky to score 700 runs this year, especially with Pierre in the leadoff spot.

GAME 3:
Dodgers 10, Giants 4
Wolf 62, Zito 23

Bochy may not have deserved his ejection, but maybe what goes around comes around for that bogus 2 meetings on the mound thing last year. But in any event, the Dodgers kicked Barry Zito around pretty hard, much more successful than last year. A lot of the credit goes to Luis Gonzalez, who smacked two big flies in that game.

April 2-4, The Brewers

So here's my wrap-up of the series, from what I could gather via gameday and other such reports.

Nothing really came as that much of a surprise. Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez, blame the park all you want, were not very impressive in the outfield. Grady Little kept mysteriously using Matt Kemp in Ethier's place and leaving Gonzalez in (Ethier also hasn't gotten on base yet this season). Takashi Saito saw his first action tonight in the win to pick up the save and save the team from Rudy Seanez. Broxton has been rock solid so far.

Martin was about the only player who did particularly well on offense, and the #2 spot suits him well. Pierre finally hit the ball, but more spectacularly took a walk only to be driven in by Martin on the next play in game #2.

Also, the Brewers have a lot more dominance in their pitching staff that people don't seem to notice, and their offense is fairly strong as well. They are questionable in terms of depth, but otherwise this is a team that can contend.

Numbers Breakdown:
Game 1: Lose 1-7
Game Scores: Lowe 21, Sheets 82
Player of the Game: Ben Sheets

Game 2: Lose 3-4
Game Scores: Wolf 46, Capuano 49
Player of the Game: Broxton

Game 3: Win 5-4
Game Scores: Schmidt 59, Suppan 54
Player of the game: Olmedo Saenz

The Wisdom of Dodger Blues

From Asshole of the Moment:
3.24.07 - Grady Little
If Rafael Furcal isn't ready for Opening Day, don't expect Nomar to make the logical switch to short with James Loney slipping in at first. Instead, it looks like Little would go with Tony Abreu at shortstop—a position he doesn't play. Little will tell you that he doesn't want Nomar getting hurt, but if that's the case, why even play him at all? Why not just put him in a display case behind home plate and let people take pictures of him?

This is really an excellent point, and matters are made worse by the fact that instead of Abreu, it's a platoon of Wilson Valdez and Ramon Martinez. While this is better than Hamulack and Carter out of the bullpen, it is horrible nonetheless. Moving Nomar over to short and playing Loney at first would upgrade defense at first and the lineup overall. Besides, Nomar would presumably last longer at short than, oh, SATURDAY, when Furcal should be back. And you could have still kept Kemp in the lineup.

Further, I nominate Grady for AHOTM for suggesting that Ethier should be platooned. Ethier can hit left handers, which we established last year, but Gonzo can't. Further, if he's basing this on one game, that's absurd. For that matter, why not bench Pierre and Gonzalez, who sucked in the game . . . YESTERDAY! Or maybe banish Derek Lowe to the bullpen for only lasting 4 innings and then promote Hendrickson to the rotation (no, don't. Please don't). This is insanity, and nothing less. Tomorrow should turn out better, though, because it's Jason Schmidt against Jeff Suppan.