Can we please sign Chien-Ming Wang

When Torre came to the Dodgers, I thought for sure we'd end up landing A-Rod after he opted out. But no dice. If Torre (along with high school teammate Hong-Chih Kuo) can lure Wang to the Dodgers, though, that would be delightful and justify his managerial stint in LA.

Wang has had injury issues the past couple of years, and it really affected his performance in 2009. In 2007, his last full healthy year, though, look what he put up:

30 GS, 199.1 IP, 9 HR allowed, 2.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9

While the low K rate is nothing to write home about, his ability to keep the ball in the park and in play is quite good.

But really, if you want a low-K guy who can get you through some innings, Wang would be a good pick, and he can potentially be a really good one. He's probably cheap because of the injuries, but he'd look good in the back of the rotation, and he would bring some nice variety with the strikeout guys Billingsley and Kershaw as well as Kuroda.

2010 Dodgers Rotation

Kershaw

Billingsley

Kuroda

Wang

Haegar

That would be fun, right?

Yeah, we signed Manny since my last post

Expect the following lineup regularly, after a while:

Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake

although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like

Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake

but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.

Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.

There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.

2009 NL Predictions on Feb 6, 2009

NL East:

Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Nats landed Dunn, but that will not help much. Picking up Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson would have been good moves, but the club is committed to building from its farm system. More Dukes and less Kearns would be nice too. Too many players couldn't hit - the pitching staff was subpar, but that offense could not get anything going. The Phillies will not win the division, and I blame it all on Chan Ho Park. He will give up 50 homers in 2009. The Braves signed Derek Lowe, but we should remember they're down Tim Hudson.

NL Central

Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds

The Cubs kinda stagnated with their club, the Brewers fell, and nobody else really seemed to do anything this offseason. St Louis should get a healthy Carpenter back at some point, and that will give them the edge. Unless Pujols needs TJ surgery.

NL West

Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres

Paul Depodesta's impact can be seen as San Diego keeps acquiring players that would have fit well with the 2005 Dodgers. Orlando Hudson will be missed in Arizona, and Randy Johnson will be welcome in San Francisco. Arizona, LA and SF have decent rotations, but if RJ is healthy and Zito maintains his 2nd half form along with Cain and Lincecum, the Giants will be tough to score on, at least. Although Edgar Renteria will be a defensive downgrade from even 104-year-old Omar Vizquel. This also assumes, of course, the Dodgers sign Manny.

Postseason:

Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Phillies in 4

Dodgers over Cubs in 6

And watch this fall on its face.

Free Agent Pitchers

Closers
Top picks
Francisco Rodriguez
Brian Fuentes
Brad Lidge
These guys have a good shot at being good over the course of their new contracts. Fuentes, because he's older might get a 2 or 3 year deal, but expect 4 years for Lidge and K-Rod. Lidge will command a premium after a great comeback season as he returned to dominance and threw the last pitch of the World Series, although he did take quite a hit from Ryan Howard immediately after.

Runners up
Jason Isringhausen
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera

These guys have been successful closers forever, which is the problem. Mariano stays in NY, no question, don't know why he's on the list. Nathan will be an attractive grab. Isringhausen is a bit of an injury risk, but he's not going to go for too long a deal, and he's still good.

Um, no
Eric Gagne
TrevorHoffman
Todd Jones

Hoffman and Jones are too old. Gagne has lost his dominance, but will still command an $8 million salary, probably from Ed Wade.

Lefty Relievers
A category for adding depth, but not spending more than like $3 million. This includes:
Joe Beimel, Alan Embree, Scott Eyre, Aaron Fultz, Will Ohman, Darren Oliver

Lefty Starters
Grand Prize
CC Sabathia

He'll dazzle you until he blows his arm out. And he's kind of fat. But the dude can pitch, and he'll get a nice deal with the Yankees.

Excellent picks:
Oliver Perez
Andy Pettitte

Pettitte might bring his 4 T's to the Dodgers, and he's a good dependable lefty starter. Perez is a good pick too - solid strikeout rate, and he's young enough to be valuable for a while. Perez tends to be lights out or terrible, more often lights out, though.

One-year deal club:
Randy Johnson
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Jeremy Affeldt
Scott Downs

These players are all old, injury prone, or of questionable talent. But teams will want a lefty starter, so none will be unemployed.

Righty Relievers
Luis Ayala
Joe Borowski
Juan Cruz
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Tom Gordon
LaTroy Hawkins
Guillermo Mota
Rudy Seanez
Julian Tavarez
David Weathers
Dan Wheeler
Kerry Wood

Dempster, Gordon, Farnsworth and Wood will draw the most interest, Wheeler and Tavarez decent picks too. Not a category to spend more than $3 million, though.

Right handed starters
Premium:
John Lackey
Derek Lowe
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Curt Schilling

With all eyes on CC, it's easy to forget how many good pitchers that aren't fat and overpriced there are. Lackey has been constantly brilliant in Southern California, as has Derek Lowe. Burnett is a nice pick, but like Sheets, he's a solid injury risk. Curt Schilling is the best 1 year deal available.

Pretty Good
John Garland
Brad Penny
Kyle Lohse
Paul Byrd

These are #3 starters in a good roation, #2 in most, #1 in a weaker rotation.

Bit Risky:
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Livan Hernandez
Orlando Hernandez
Jason Jennings
Pedro Martinez

The career leader in ERA+ might have to settle for a 1 year deal, and the Hernandez brothers aren't as young as they once were. Jason Jennings got hurt at just the wrong time, so he's an interesting player to take a flyer on. Colon is a fatty, and Clement hasn't been the same since he left Chicago, although much of that can be blamed on Dusty Baker.

Let's talk money

How much would you pay Manny Ramirez?

The Dodgers have to consider that not only can they afford Ramirez, but they will make more money as a result of having him. Attendance was higher in August and September, and a lot of Manny-related merchandise was sold. Even with only anecdotal evidence, it's not a stretch to think that signing Manny would be worthwhile, even for a monster contract.

The most important realization in the contract is that time is worth more than money. The Seattle Mariners did not hire Kim Ng, so the Dodgers might be able to escape the damage done to the arbitration process in the Ryan Howard case, which will save them money on Broxton, Ethier, and Martin (Billingsley and Kemp are likely not arbitraiton eligible yet), who might want to avoid arbitration. The point is, the Dodgers have kept a fair amount of their costs under control. Also, with their market size and potential to reach 4,000,000 fans with Ramirez, $30,000,000 per year is not a stretch. For Ramirez to be a valuable and productive player beyond the next three seasons, though, would be hard to say. He's got good power and good patience; the power will fade eventually, and the patience will hold until his eyesight declines. His defense is subpar and will not get better, though, which would make him more valuable as a DH, where he would not have to be in the field. The Dodgers don't have as many other DH options available, though.

Personally, I'd go with $80,000,000 over 3 years. That's not too long a commitment and it's plenty of money - Ramirez could easily net $10,000,000 afterward going anywhere (and he'll probably need to DH by then). I don't see the Dodgers offering more than $60,000,000 over 3, though. The best way might be to offer $90,000,000 over 4 years in a heavily front-loaded contract ($5m deferred sign bonus, $30m, $30m, $15m, $10m), and then, they can add an opt-out clause before years 3 and 4. Essentially, it's $65 million over two years with player options for $15 million and $10 million. If Ramirez wants to opt out for more money, no problem, LA might want better defense by then, if not, then he can still play and OPS around .900 at age 38-39.

The Pitching Staff

Starters definitely coming back:

Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Clayton Kershaw

at this point, Billingsley can be though of as the ace of the staff, except by Bill Plaschke, who will hold his NLCS performance against him for the next couple years. Kuroda turned out to be a rather pleasant surprise - doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but still has good command of the strike zone and works efficiently. Kershaw showed some potential, and as he develops his changeup and slider/cutter he will climb his way up the rotation.

Potential free agent Dodgers:

Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Greg Maddux

I would have expected Lowe to have been traded, but instead the Dodgers face the possibility of only getting two draft picks for him. Lowe has been good every year of his contract, getting his groundball outs, having good command of the strike zone, and not being homer prone. If the Dodgers could only score runs when he starts. Lowe will probably be looking for at least 3 years/$40 million, which might be a lot to pay a guy who'll be 36 next year.

Penny's a tougher case. He's got quite the upside, but he's an injury risk. And a really crappy pitcher when injured. It's tough to say if he'll come back healthy, although he's shown that he can (see 2005), and it might be worthwhile. Penny gets paid $2,000,000 if the Dodgers buy out his option, so keeping the opening day starter is a matter of $7.25 million. Not a bad deal, compared to say Randy Wolf.

Maddux is a candidate for retirement, although he still seems to have a little something left. But I do mean a little something - he's shown that he can get hit pretty hard last year, when his homer rate spiked. Still, he could probably be had for around $8 million; I could see the Dodgers offering him arbitration and him accepting, or even going for a lower offer with LA.

Free Agents on the Market:

CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Jon Garland
Pedro Martinez
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Oliver Perez

The Dodgers will make an offer to Sabathia, but they will not get him because he will make Kevin Brown look cheap. They will be relieved when he tears his rotator cuff in May while wearing the pinstripes in the Bronx. AJ Burnett is an injury waiting to happen, but is still good when healthy - I wouldn't be surprised if he matches JD Drew's Boston deal. I can't help but think he'd remind Colletti too much of JD Drew, though. Ben Sheets would be a fun pick - he's just as goofy as Manny Ramirez, except that he's just as injury prone as Nomar Garciaparra. I wouldn't give him more than a one year deal, and I don't know if any other GM would either. Garland might be intriguing, especially since Anaheim traded for him last year, but I wouldn't expect anything.

Pedro Martinez would be a nice signing - get him to come back where he began his career, and where Tommy Lasorda said he wouldn't be any good, the dumbass that he is. Maybe the Dodgers trade him at the deadline for a crappy second baseman. Either way, he's probably worth about $8 million or so on the free agent market now. Jamie Moyer is older than dirt and hasn't played for the Dodgers yet. Mark Mulder is intriguing, in a Jason Schmidt kind of way. Finally, Oliver Perez has nice strikeout abilities and isn't that old yet, so he might be a sensible signing, I could see him going for about 4 years $45 million in this market.

In House:

James McDonald
Hong-Chi Kuo
Eric Stults
Scott Elbert

McDonald even got the support of Bill Plaschke to be the #5 starter next year, and he'd be a good pick. Granted, he hasn't pitched much more than 150 innings in a season, but the 5th starter can be skipped, and Kershaw can probably go for up to 200, especially under the watchful eye and quick hook of Joe Torre (who knows that after 100 pitches, pitchers don't last long). McDonald's minor league peripherals suggest that the solid player we saw was no fluke, and as Billingsley showed us, minor league K rates sometimes take time to translate to the bigs. Kuo is an option as a starter, especially if one feels it is necessary for a lefty starter, but he is also a very good bullpen option, good against left and right handed hitters. Stults is that 6th starter guy that's useful but you don't know how long you want to keep him, particularly when he gives up as many homers as he does. I think McDonald will be in the rotation by the end of the season, although I don't know if he'll start in the pen first. Working as a reliever helped Billingsley get into a rhythym as a strikeout guy rather than a lucky RISP guy, but McDonald could be fine with either - guess it depends how many major league innings to subject him to. Scott Elbert isn't quite Greg Miller, but he really needs to stop walking people so much, and might need time in AAA to get that down.

My Rotation:

1) Chad Billingsley (R)
2) Hiroki Kuroda (R)
3) Oliver Perez (L)
4) Clayton Kershaw (L)
5) James McDonald (R)

Relievers

Definitely coming back:

Jonathan Broxton
Hong-Chi Kuo
Ramon Troncoso
Cory Wade
Scott Elbert

Broxton is the closer, who is prone to an occasional misgiving, but generally gets the job done. But let's face it, he's better than Eric Gagne is now. Kuo will likely stay in the pen as quite the fixture for a lefty power pitcher. If he's healthy, he is awesome. If he's not, we might not see him the rest of the year. Wade was lucky and Troncoso unlucky on balls in play, but both exhibited a good K/BB and acceptable HR rate. Wade struck out fewer than Troncoso's batter an inning, but he also walked only 3 more batters than Troncoso in 33 1/3 more innings. And while Troncoso might get luckier next year, it is also worth noting that Wade had the much better career minor league numbers (K/BB over 4!). Wade is 3 months younger. Nonetheless, both are good pitchers. Finally, Scott Elbert didn't have a pretty major league debut, but he's back from injury, and with a bit of work on his control could probably be another good left-handed pitcher. I'd expect him to start in the minors to get his control down.

Uncertain for next year:

Takashi Saito

Saito might retire, because he's old and his injury proneness is catching up with him. On the other hand, he might also want to keep pitching and being a dominant member of the pen. As it is, he might still be the closer next year, because when healthy, he's got a decent fastball with great breaking stuff.

Free Agents:

Joe Beimel
Scott Proctor

See you proctor. Beimel will be missed by Troy from West Virginia, unless the Dodgers decide to keep him for some reason. Still, not a bad run for Beimel, though good riddance for Proctor.

Outfield talk

Now that I blew predicting the NLCS, let's plan for next year.

I think the infield has been discussed fairly well, but it's plain to see that there's not a whole lot of room to improve there, short of a trade. Every so often one will see things about an Adrian Beltre trade, but the wild card out there is a Chipper Jones trade. Beltre is probably the better option because he'll be more durable at a position where the Dodgers don't have depth, he's the superior defender, and he won't cost as much. Chipper Jones could be a Manny-like acquisition, you would get him to win now, but you don't know if you'll hold onto him. While Jones did say that he grew up a Dodger fan, one would think he'd want to bolster his HOF case as a one team player on the Braves (and he definitely has trade veto powers).

So, let's look at the outfield and later on, the rotation.

Outfield
Needs: Left Fielder
Currently have - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Trade Bait - Juan Pierre
DFA Candidate - Andruw Jones. Or he could magically get better and be the starting CF. After all, this is when he's supposed to play for his big contract. I wouldn't expect him to be in LA unless he's on the DL all season or the Dodgers trade for Chipper.
In house - Jason Repko, Delwyn Young. Neither is probably where you'd want a starting outfielder to be, particularly given the state of the infield, although Repko is capable of having productive months when given regular playing time (see April 2006), though in a small sample, that's not too hard.

In the wings - Xavier Paul might see some time mid-season

Free Agents by likelihood- Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr

Ned Colletti would totally pull the trigger on signing Griffey if the Chisox don't pick up his option. Otherwise, it seems like the Dodgers won't pay big time for Ramirez, at least not in years. Colletti hasn't given anyone over 30 more than a 3 year contract, to his credit. I think the Dodgers offer Manny $85 million over 3 years, and that could do it.

Griffey could be had for one or two years at $10 million per. Abreu would go for 2-3 years at about $12 million per. Pat Burrell will get paid more than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn will probably not sign until Ramirez does though; a team that wants Ramirez would likely settle for Dunn. While it would be a very unlikely move for Colletti, I could see him doing it because Dunn's been a 40 HR guy the past 5 years and we'd be taking him from AZ, a double whammy. Dunn will likely get $80 million over 4 years, Burrell might get a bit more.

Outgoing
Pierre isn't much for bait, but he does want a trade, and he's probably still useful to someone. LA will have to eat much of his salary (probably about $20 million worth over the remaining 3 years), but one has to think that he could fit into the NL East. Philadelphia would suffer picking him up for Burrell, although he'd have some nice range in left field, but that would also put another left-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup. The Mets would make sense except they already have Endy Chavez, although outfield depth would be nice. The Nationals have Dukes, Kearns and Milledge, who are better in that outfield, so no thanks (although a Pierre for Kearns swap is believable, especially if the Nats save $10 or 12 million, although there is no substance to that, I'm purely speculating). The Braves possibly, if they need someone to be a stopgap.

I think Pierre gets traded for Endy Chavez and a 25 year old guy in AA, with LA eating $15 million. I think then that the Dodgers stick with Andruw Jones and hope for the best, as Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell will get offers ahead of Manny, the Chisox pick up Griffey's option, and Abreu goes somewhere random.

Well, That Was a Shocker

Ok, so it turns out that the NLCS will be Dodgers-Phillies, but LA swept (I did correctly call Phillies in 4 for the first round). The coverage of the Dodgers and Cubs seems to say almost entirely not so much that the Dodgers were good as that the Cubs were just awful. After all, they had the better regular season record, they had the better defense, etc. But as Billy Beane can tell you, the postseason is a crapshoot.

To be fair though, the Dodgers were a better team than their record suggests. Furcal replacing Berroa is huge at short, and Brad Penny and Andruw Jones are both not on the postseason roster. Manny was not with the team all year, nor was Casey Blake. DeWitt has shown himself to be a streaky player, and currently he's on a good one. Juan Pierre has been a bench player since Manny's acquisition. Scott Proctor stopped getting the ball in key situations - now that goes to Kuo, Broxton, Wade. To be fair, Chan Ho Park gave up the long ball and should have had a higher ERA, but that's all for that part. The Cubs, on the other hand, had a couple of guys having career years - 21 homers for Mark Derosa, an effective year as a starter for Ryan Dempster, for example.

LA faces what was one of the best offenses during the regular season. But remember, they already took on the best of the regular season. And while the Dodgers pitching will be tough to beat, Philly's staff is no group of slouches. When the two teams met earlier in the season, one team was having a good streak while the other had a poor one, resulting in two four game sweeps by the home team. Let's look head to head:

Starting Pitchers (based on NLDS):

Lowe vs Hamels

Billingsley vs Myers

Moyer vs Kuroda

Blanton vs Maddux (?)


Personally I'd like to see Moyer vs Maddux, a combined 87 years old. Wild cards to start are the two left-handed K men, Kershaw and Kuo. Kuo is a health question mark, but he's got excellent stuff and he could come in and surprise Philadelphia. Kershaw could do the job as well, but it seems like the Dodgers would be foolish not to use at least one left-handed starter against the Phillies. The edge here has to go to LA, though, particularly if we see Kershaw.

One thing that surprised me was that LA didn't use half of their pitching staff. We saw Wade, Broxton, Saito and Maddux out of the bullpen, but no Beimel, no Kershaw, no McDonald, no Park. I would expect to see more of some of the guys who didn't get playing time, so Torre can use some new tricks in the NLCS.

Outfield

Manny vs Burrell

Kemp vs Victorino

Ethier vs Werth

Manny beats Burrell, although Pat the bat is not known for his glove, he is a better hitter than Soriano. Ethier edges Werth, because he can hit for average. Kemp edges Victorino because he's got a bit more pop than the Flyin Hawaiian.

Infield

Loney vs Howard

DeWitt vs Utley

Furcal vs Rollins

Blake vs Feliz

Howard edges Loney because first base defense only matters so much. DeWitt is pretty good, but Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball. Furcal edges Rollins, who did not deserve a single award he won last year - Furcal is the rangier shortstop that gets on base more. And Casey Blake doesn't have Pedro Feliz's glove, but Pedro Feliz doesn't get to swing his glove at the plate, even though he probably needs to to hit anything.

Carlos Ruiz has nothing on Russell Martin.

If you look at who's playing over their head, a couple players come to mind on each team still. Ethier's got that BABIP thing going, so if he's hot he's good, if not, then, um, ugh. Not much else for LA. Brad Lidge is not as good as he was this year - no way he only gives up 2 homers in 69.3 innings pitched - and only 1 at home.

I'll say Dodgers in 6 on this one.

NL Playoff Matchups

This will get very interesting, because nobody in the NL knows who they're playing yet, although we know three teams that will be in it. And we know the Cubs and Phillies play game 1 at home, and the Dodgers play game 3 at home. It comes down to one game for the wildcard, and here are the wildcard contenders (both of whom are the home team):

Milwaukee Brewers
vs Cubs
Angel Guzman (6.13 Career ERA) vs CC Sabathia

The Brewers are fighting for their postseason, while the Cubs are playing for the chance to play the Mets (4-2 cubs for the season series) instead of the Dodgers (5-2 cubs). The Cubs should prefer the Mets: in 6 games this season, they outscored them 41 to 26 while in 7 games they outscored the Dodgers by only 1 run, 19 to 18. That being said, the Brewers will be more than willing to let CC go 12 innings and 200 pitches if that's what it takes to win this one. Expect at least 8 innings for CC and a Brewers win. Day games in that park are also just plain weird because of the glass.

New York Mets
vs Florida Marlins
Scott Olsen vs Oliver Perez

Oliver Perez is one of those guys people think is pretty good but still find disappointment with his high walk totals and above average HR rate. The fact is though that the guy is 27 and isn't going to pitch that differently. Still, the Mets have had a solid lineup, although they face another solid one. I'd say edge Mets because of the way Olsen has declined. The Mets are overall beating the Marlins in the season series by a reasonable margin.

Tiebreaker Game
Seth McClung vs Pedro Martinez

Two or Three Years ago, Pedro would have made this a guaranteed win. As it is, he's not doing too well, but he is probably the Mets' best option. McClung isn't anything special, though, so if nothing else, it'll be a battle of sluggers, but given Pedro's homer rate this year, I'd have to say edge Brewers.

So since I'm predicting Brewers for the wild card, here's who faces off then:

Dodgers vs Cubs

Brewers vs Phillies


1) Dodgers vs Cubs
Rotation

Game 1: Derek Lowe vs Ryan Dempster
Game 2: Chad Billingsley vs Carlos Zambrano
Game 3: Rich Harden vs Hiroki Kuroda
Game 4: Ted Lilly vs Greg Maddux

Up until Lilly vs Maddux, this looks like it's fairly even, perhaps even favoring LA. Not only has Billingsley had a good year, but Zambrano hasn't pitched since Sept 2 due to shoulder problems. Odds are that if he does pitch that he's not all better, and if that's the case he'll be down some velocity, have flatter pitches, and be easier to hit.

Starting Lineup:

LF: Alfonso Soriano vs Manny Ramirez
CF: Jim Edmonds vs Matt Kemp
RF: Kosuke Fukudome vs Andre Ethier

Manny is a better hitter than Sori, with better OBP skills. Soriano, though, has the defensive edge. Something that you never thought you'd hear 5 years ago. The reverse is probably true in center field, although Edmonds ability to read the ball probably gives him a slight defensive edge. In Right, though, no contest: all about Ethier.

1B: Derrek Lee vs James Loney
2B: Mark DeRosa vs Jeff Kent/Blake DeWitt
3B: Aramis Ramirez vs Casey Blake/Blake DeWitt
SS: Ryan Theriot vs Rafael Furcal
C: Geovany Soto vs Russell Martin

The only clear advantage for the Dodgers would be if Rafael Furcal really is healthy. If he can hold up, he's definitely got it. Lee and A-Ram are top corner men, good as Loney and Blake might be. DeRosa has done well as a Cub, and will probably continue to do so. Soto has emerged as a good young catcher and has hit for power more, though Martin has honed his on-base skills so well that it's really hard to discount him.

The Cubs have a bit of an edge on offense. It will probably come down to bullpens and luck to determine this series. I'll be optimistic and say Dodgers in 5, though.


Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers

Two teams with power hitting lineups and iffy pitching depth. The Phillies had Brad Lidge, the Brewers had Eric Gagne. I don't care about this one as much, and it's late. Just guessing, though, I'd say edge to Philadelphia. They hit for average and get on base more. Phillies in 4, because CC won't start against Hamels.

Infield Options 2008

The Dodgers have one sure bet for the infield in 2008: James Loney. Beyond him, much is up in the air.

Second Base
Free Agents: Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Ray Durham
In House: Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young

As it is, Ellis is the leading candidate now for a free agent 2B signing because of Orlando Hudson's season-ending injury. Picking up Hudson would be a risky move - you don't know what he's going to do offensively. Felipe Lopez would be the low buy, and Ray Durham is an old dude who can't play defense, but at least he can get on base.

DeWitt is probably still a contender for the third base job, but don't forget Delwyn Young. Larry Bowa thinks he can play second, so that can't be ruled out yet.

Shortstop
Free Agents: Rafael Furcal, Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria
In House: Chin-Lung Hu, Russell Martin

Let's throw this out there now: Martin is not moving from behind the plate unless Saltalamacchia, etc falls in the Dodgers lap. If they were willing to trade Lowe at the deadline, this might be feasible, but now, not so much.

Furcal is an injury question. After being out almost all season and having an abysmal year at the plate (although being amazing when healthy), he's likely to take a 1 year deal. Provided he's happy in LA, I can see him staying, so it would appear he's most likely to remain a Dodger. The real question is who plays in September - if it's Furcal, then it's likely he comes back. If Furcal is hurt and Hu gets a chance and does well, Furcal will get offered arbitration so LA gets draft picks, and Hu becomes the starting shortstop. Neither other free agent option looks good, unless Hu is particularly bad in September and Furcal doesn't look like he'll be healthy soon.

Third Base
Free agents: Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Mark Teixiera*,
In House: Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin
Trade: Adrian Beltre

I mention Beltre because it seems like a DePo correction that he could enjoy, and it is true that Beltre is a good defensive 3B as well as a decent hitter. I don't see LA giving up players for him for just a year, though, but that could all depend on what Colletti is thinking on a particular day. Nomar keeps getting hurt, but it looks like he can still hit some, so he remains a viable option at third. Blake is gone. Teixiera has played 15 games at the major league level at third base, the position where he was originally drafted. He's a very good defensive first baseman, and I would be surprised if he switched back. DeWitt seems like he'll get a starting job next year, somehow, but I'm not sure where; third would seem likely.

Most Likely
Loney
DeWitt
Furcal
Nomar

This would be the most status quo of the lineups, and would make sense with DeWitt playing 2nd in Vegas, even with LaRoche gone. The goal with Furcal would be to get him back at a discount for one year, but it may only be down to about $8 million. Nomar will probably re-sign for less than he's making now, but I would guess a 2 year $12 million deal.

Loney
DeWitt
Guzman
Nomar

As much as I don't want Christian Guzman and I know Vin Scully likes saying "O-Dog," Torre and co like DeWitt more than Hu, so I'd expect to see Nomar at third and DeWitt at 2nd, and a stopgap SS in the meantime, if Fucal doesn't stay. I really don't see LA suddenly favoring Hu after letting Angel Berroa have a job for so long, unless Logan White is the new GM.

Manny?

Well we got Manny Ramirez, but it did cost us Andy LaRoche.

One thing though: Manny says he wants to stay in LA. He likes the relaxed atmosphere, being loved by fans, but having his peace off the field. At 35 he wouldn't get a 4 or 5 year contract, but one could see a 3 year deal easily to keep him here. McCourt is probably excited enough to green light Colletti to extend him, even with agent Boras.

So what does that mean?

If we keep Manny, we'll need to retain Furcal or pay for a 3B/2B. Our other viable choice would be Orlando Hudson. We could also expect about a .700 OPS from each of those players. Tony Abreu presumably would still have healthy issues.

We would also want as many homegrown options as possible. Which could mean, surprise, DY plays second. Remember also that Xavier Paul will be ready soon, so he or Ethier could be traded. It could also mean we'd find a way to accept Jones and or Pierre as a sunk cost and then just try to dump them or trade them off and pay only most of their salary.

Lineup in 2009

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
DeWitt
Hu

This actually doesn't look bad, although it does depend a good bit on Furcal's health. Otherwise, we'll see:

Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Loney
Abreu/DY
DeWitt
Hu

So Furcal looks like a good pickup. If no Manny or Furcal, then we'll probably get Sabathia or Sheets, which gives us this rotation:

Sabathia
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw

which is just plain sick, and would let me feel better about the lineup.

The Future

Because why be satisfied with the present. Currently, the Dodgers are committed to the following players next year:

2009
C - Russell Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - (Blake DeWitt)
SS - (Chin-Lung Hu)
3B - (Andy LaRoche)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Matt Kemp

SP - Brad Penny
SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Jason Schmidt
SP - Clayton Kershaw

BN - Juan Pierre (OF)
BN - Tony Abreu (INF)
BN - Young/Repko (OF)
BN - Lucas May (C)
BN - Nomar Garciaparra (INF/PH)
BN - lefty PH

RP - Jonathan Broxton
RP - Yhency Brazoban
RP - Scott Proctor
RP - Cory Wade
RP - Hong-Chi Kuo
RP - Joe Beimel

Well first, the Red is speculation on re-signing, green is speculation on call-ups for players who don't have major league service time yet, and blue is speculation on who we'd get from NRIs. The problem with this estimate is that it assumes no Ned factor. Colletti, despite being the incumbent, keeps wanting to make a huge signing in the offseason. He blew a bunch of money on Pierre and Schmidt, Andruw Jones last year.

Leaving via free agency then would be:
Derek Lowe
Esteban Loaiza
Rafael Furcal

The Dodgers will offer Lowe and Furcal arbitration, unless they're insane, netting them 5 first round draft picks, potentially.

Quick! Make some predictions!

Well, this will be a challenge, because one has to guess which players get playing time, who gets injured, who plays freakishly well, who loses everything, etc. But might as well jump out before everyone else. Even though Kyle Lohse is still unemployed.

National League - AL review to come later.

EAST
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Mets have a bit of a weakness at 2nd base, but other than the September collapse of Jose Reyes, they should own the division. Pedro looked like himself in September, at least by the numbers, and adding Santana should make that the best rotation at least in the division, if not the league. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either El Duque or Mike Pelfrey will fill out the rotation, probably quite successfully.

Philadelphia still lacks a lot of pitching depth behind Hammels, and in the absence of Aaron Rowand's career year, their offense will have to put in a little more effort to keep being awesome.
Atlanta is missing Andruw Jones and Kotsay is an injury risk, as is Chipper Jones, which is a shame. A full year of Chipper would be huge for Atlanta. The Braves do have the potential to outdo the Phillies if their offense keeps up, particularly with Renteria now in Detroit. Healthy years from Gonzalez and Soriano will also vastly help Atlanta, although Joey Devine would have been huge for Atlanta. Smoltz and Glavine are both older than dirt, though, so you never know there, and I don't think Mike Hampton will ever be healthy again. He probably forgot what baseballs look like.

The Marlins had an ugly year last year, but they should be getting Olson back from injury. They are down Cabrera, but they got Maybin, who will fill the centerfield hole - yeah, the Marlins look like they miss Juan Pierre. Their power-hitting middle infield, though, is still quite young.

The Nats made some nice acquisitions with Dukes and Milledge, but that doesn't change that they might actually start Christian Guzman at short still. On top of that, their pitching staff has some upside but is far too injury prone to inspire a lot of confidence.

Central
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Astros

At the very least, I'd say there's a split between the top 3 good teams and the bottom 3 bad teams.

The Brewers have had a lot of key components, they just seem to be able to overpay someone every year. Jeff Suppan last year, now Eric Gagne. Sheets in a contract year should be thrilling, and Capuano will be trying to rebound from a poor injury-riddled season where his opponents' average against jumped up from .260 to .280. Not to mention Braun, Fielder and Weeks are offensive forces that aren't making outs all over.

The Cubs won the division last year, and yes, Zambrano's ERA was half a point higher than his career mark. Who knows. Lou Pinella isn't terribly stupid, but I don't see two years in a row. Even if Ted Lilly is that good.

The Cardinals have room to improve, like having Carpenter pitch, but the problem is that won't be until July. Mulder might be alive, but we won't hear from him until May, and what will he pitch like? Mulder has not been effective since 2005 (sort of like Jeff Weaver). Glaus for Rolen is a lateral move, except Glaus might have more power left. Both will spend half the year on the DL. Izturis will make more outs, defensively and offensively, than Eckstein.

The Reds have Dusty Baker managing. Homer Bailey, the hope for their future, should pray that Baker gets arrested and tabbed as Barry Bonds' real supplier, preventing him from forcing Bailey to throw 140 pitches 3 games in a row. Baker will also despise Adam Dunn from clogging the bases with his three true outcome awesomeness.

The Pirates should get improvement from Jason Bay - not sure what happened there. Adam Laroche should probably knock a couple more out too. I still don't hold but so many high hopes for Pittsburgh, but we shall see.

The Astros are the stupidest organization in baseball. Tejada is an ok acquisition, except that he's getting old and isn't as good, and probably used steroids. Why they couldn't wait another day for the Mitchell Report is beyond me. But more importantly, their pitching is no longer a strength beyond Roy Oswalt.

WEST
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

Brandon Webb is good. Micah Owings is good. Randy Johnson might be healthy. But the Diamondbacks on top of that said, hell, let's get Dan Haren. The team is very dependent on its young core, with the reigning old dudes being crazy-haired Eric Byrnes, crazy bald man Kirk Gibson, and grumpy old coot Randy Johnson. That might put the D-Backs over the top.

Sure the Rockies got really hot at the end of last year, but they're good. Cook doesn't strike people out, but he's a groundball machine. Morales and Jiminez are up-and-coming. But let's not forget the superstars on the team: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton. Helton is like what Kevin Youkilis would be if he were 35 and not fat. They have the same beehive goatee thing too.

The Dodgers have upside that's dictated not just by their young players, but by Joe Torre. Hopefully, Torre won't do anything stupid like play Pierre over Ethier or play Nomar over Laroche. Additionally, they have all kinds of question marks like Kuroda, Jones, Furcal (who was still awesome defensively last year), Schmidt, Kuo, Brazoban, and Jeff Kent. They could potentially be a first place team, but nothing is certain.

The Padres plan to kill Jim Edmonds by making him run around their giant centerfield. Mark Prior has not pitched effectively since 2005, but he's worth a shot for $1,000,000. Randy Wolf has a nice curve and good K rate, and PETCO will keep the ball in the park, but he's still an injury risk too. I'm still optimistic that Hoffman will implode spectacularly around July or so.

The Giants have no position players. They overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who will still be better than anyone else on their team at hitting a baseball. Losing Bonds will make certain that the Giants don't get out of the cellar.

Spring Training

Sadly, we're looking at a situation where the Dodgers' manager has no clue what to think of his team. He wants to see them first. No opinions of anyone yet.

Jon Weisman has a Spring Training preview. Here's my quick and dirty version:

Starting Pitchers
1) Brad Penny
2) Derek Lowe
3) Chad Billingsley
4) Hiroki Kuroda
5) Jason Schmidt - health pending
6) Hong-Chih Kuo - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - above two health and quality pending
8) Eric Stults - desperation pending

Relief Pitchers
1) Takashi Saito
2) Jon Broxton
3) Scott Proctor
4) Joe Beimel
5) Rudy Seanez - almost a sure thing
6) Yhency Brazoban - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - quality pending
8) Mike Myers - health/desparation pending

Catcher
Russell Martin
Joe Benchwarmer

First Base
James Loney
Nomar Garciaparra

Second Base
Jeff Kent
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu

Shortstop
Rafael Furcal
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu

Third Base
Andy LaRoche
Nomar Garciaparra
Tony Abreu

Outfield
Andruw Jones
Matt Kemp
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Delwyn Young
Jason Repko
John-Ford Griffin


Nothing new here. Bench Nomar, bench Pierre, and much will be good. For a real good time, have LaRoche bat leadoff. A more realistic lineup:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
Ethier
LaRoche

by July, I'd like,

Furcal
Loney
LaRoche
Kemp
Jones
Kent
Ethier
Martin

Marting batting 8th to preserve him. Or something. Batting 2nd is a bitch for a catcher.

Can Pierre be benched? Or - how to make $36 million matter

Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have in common that the Dodgers owe each of them $36 million for the remainder of their contracts. And that they were signed to play centerfield.

Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre

Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?

That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.

Division of Labor

Now for those of you who know anything about sports, you know that ESPN is just plain stupid. I'm sorry, but it is. If you tune in to something like Baseball Tonight all you get is fodder for something like Fire Joe Morgan. But there is a puzzle here.

Anyone can have an opinion. But opinions are only relevant in discussing what is not already known to be fact. "The Dodgers did not hit many home runs this year" is not an opinion - they finished 15th in the NL. "The Dodgers had a bad year offensively" is an opinion, but it can be substantiated by the fact that they had a team OPS+ of 93, where 100 is average. "The Dodgers need to give up their best hitters for more pitching" is an opinion, and a very stupid one at that.

But I digress. Here's my old roommate on the subject:

If you read what Schreiber says about ESPN's coverage, it makes them look like a "worldwide leader" in sports, but little else. They lead the fray into a world of unsubstantiated reports, biased reporting by former athletes interviewing former teammates and players who played the same position (see: Irvin, Michael and Johnson, Keyshawn), and unseasoned reporters thrust into a position where they have to awkwardly negotiate their position as a former athlete and their current position as a journalist, which goes beyond ESPN (see: Barber, Tiki).

Apparently ESPN believes it needs not only frequent celebrity guests, but in fact needs celebrity hosts, not uncommon in sports. But ESPN was correct in stating their situation is not unique, but in fact the nature of 24 hour news, and that is the case for their shoddy news coverage, but reporters on Fox News and CNN are reporters, not ex-politicians. The creation of a larger opinion section for the 24 hour news networks seems to be the trend, because that's easier to use as filler.

But here's the problem - there are more useful opinions out there. Dodger Thoughts is a trillion times more useful than Bill Plaschke. Heck, I can even write a Bill Plaschke column (comment 226). Bloggers can also do research, cite facts and stats, and they are fact-checked by readers whom they are not too arrogant to ignore.

The mainstream media has advantages, just not what one would think. The old claim is it's professional, so it can screen writers for quality - a reasonably intelligent reader can screen for quality. More relevantly, the professional status means that reporters are paid to have time to devote to gathering facts, information and interviews. Reporters can ask experts for data and sources of data. Most significantly, reporters are most capable of unearthing new information credibly.

Bloggers pretty much have to cite reporters - often they just link to them and quote, if anything, only the most relevant parts - because not only do they have to satisfy the reporter that they're not plagarizing, but they have to satisfy their audience that they're not making stuff up. Bloggers have to have substatiated opinions - people are more skeptical of what other people have to say. Further, bloggers can use any hard data they see. Therefore, the most efficent division of labor would be for the mainstream media to do all the reporting and fact gathering and then for the bloggers to comment and analyze.

There are vast economic reasons you don't see this, though. If bloggers could summarize news stories just by citing newspapers and linking to them, how would newspapers make money? The best the newspapers would hope for would be increased readership, and they may limit how much of the article could actually be quoted on a blog. It would be a risky move, but a solidly journalistic news organization could prove to be the most linked to paper, and those who just want the whole story would go to that paper. As it is, this is the strength of the news business, and division of labor suggests you are better off specializing in your strength, even if you are better at commentary than bloggers (which these reporters are not).

Yay

The Dodgers might not do anything stupid.

"There's potential for change, but as we look at the young players that we played a lot this past year, we're less likely to fill in [positions with veterans] as much as we have in the past and more likely we'll give the younger players a greater opportunity," Colletti said. "I'm curious to see how our young players, who really had a chance this past year to play full time, I'm curious to see what another year does."

2007 PrOPS

PrOPS estimates what players' batting lines should be based on batted ball types etc. Available at the Hardball Times, and developed by JC Bradbury.

Players with expected and actual lines:

Russell Martin .283/.367/.455 .293/.374/.469
James Loney .300/.350/.501 .331/.381/.538
Jeff Kent .288/.364/.478 .302/.375/.500
Nomar Garciaparra .286/.330/.403 .283/.328/.371
Rafael Furcal .278/.339/.376 .270/.335/.355
Andre Ethier .281/.350/.436 .284/.350/.452
Juan Pierre .293/.328/.358 .293/.331/.353
Luis Gonzalez .289/.368/.455 .278/.359/.433

Matt Kemp .261/.297/.430 .342/.373/.521
Andy LaRoche .257/.391/.363 .226/.365/.312
Delwyn Young .299/.332/.545 .382/.417/.647
Tony Abreu .267/.308/.366 .271/.309/.404
Chin-Lung Hu .261/.258/.527 .241/.241/.517

Glaring discrepencies:
Matt Kemp
Delywn Young
Andy LaRoche

LaRoche gets credit for his patience and PrOPS figures he should have hit the ball successfully more often given the batted ball types. Delwyn Young looks to be good, but not as much as he showed. Matt Kemp looks like he was the recipient of a ton of lucky singles. A ton. If this is accurate for predicting performance, it might not be a bad idea to trade Kemp with his value high, assuming of course he doesn't improve his patience or power or something like that.

Take A Look at this

Good Free Agents pre 2008
3b
A-Rod

cf
Andruw Jones
Torii Hunter
Aaron Rowand

dh
Barry Bonds

c
Michael Barrett
Jason Kendall

SP
Matt Clement

Good Free Agents pre 2009

first base
Mark Teixeira - 1B

second base
Orlando Hudson - 2B

outfielders
Pat Burrell - LF
Adam Dunn - LF
Bobby Abreu - RF
Vlad Guerrero - RF

closers
Jason Isringhausen - CL
Brad Lidge - CL
Joe Nathan - CL

starting pitchers
CC Sabathia - LHSP
Johan Santana - LHSP
Oliver Perez - LHSP
Mark Mulder - LHSP
Derek Lowe - RHSP
Greg Maddux - RHSP
Ben Sheets - RHSP

shortstops
Rafael Furcal

Good Free Agents pre 2010
1b
Nick Johnson
Adam LaRoche
Carlos Pena

2b
Placido Polanco
Brian Roberts
Freddy Sanchez

3b
Adrian Beltre
Chipper Jones
Miguel Cabrera

CF
Chone Figgins
Ryan Freel

corner OF
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Carl Crawford
Gary Sheffield
Jayson Werth

DH
Manny Ramirez

Starting Pitchers
Erik Bedard - LHSP
Dontrelle Willis - LHSP
Chris Capuano - LHSP
Brad Penny - RHSP
Jake Peavy - RHSP

Closers
JJ Putz -CL


Good Free Agents pre 2011
First base
Paul Konerko
Justin Morneau
Kevin Youkilis

third base
Wilson Betemit
Eric Chavez

catcher
Joe Mauer
Yadier Molina

Outfield
Eric Byrnes
Brad Hawpe
Alex Rios

Closers
BJ Ryan
Huston Street

shortstop
Derek Jeter

A smart GM would look at all the major league talent he has under control for this period of time, and check to see when would be the oppurtune time to deal and hold onto it. Nice to put out to look at.

Joe

Joe Torre is now the Dodger manager. Grady Little had enough of the season, so he just quit. Torre will probably not make but so much of a difference, but let's venture a guess.

Managing a pitching staff
Neither was known for trying to kill a starting pitcher. Torre had a reputation for picking favorite relievers, but Grady was picking that up with Broxton. To be fair, the Dodgers have a much deeper bullpen with Saito, Broxton, Proctor and Beimel all as capable relievers. Brazoban too, if he's ever healthy again. (If they give up on Yhency, though, a run at Gagne would be nice).

Managing a lineup
Tends to give players set roles, but this isn't bad. He liked Jeter in the 2 spot, which actually was wonderful - maybe he puts Martin there. Also not afraid to demote guys like Giambi, Damon, etc, although some utility players get a lot more credit than one might think. Making Abreu the utility man wouldn't be bad, though.

Handling the media
Torre is good for keeping people calm, although nobody in the LA media is like the NY media. Maybe Simers. On the other hand, Little wasn't too bad at this, and he was more interesting at times, often funny, and Torre may be more boring.

Clubhouse stuff
Apparently Torre has a bit more control, maybe because he's not such a joker.

Marginal at best, but probably not a bad move.