Saturday, October 18, 2008

Outfield talk

Now that I blew predicting the NLCS, let's plan for next year.

I think the infield has been discussed fairly well, but it's plain to see that there's not a whole lot of room to improve there, short of a trade. Every so often one will see things about an Adrian Beltre trade, but the wild card out there is a Chipper Jones trade. Beltre is probably the better option because he'll be more durable at a position where the Dodgers don't have depth, he's the superior defender, and he won't cost as much. Chipper Jones could be a Manny-like acquisition, you would get him to win now, but you don't know if you'll hold onto him. While Jones did say that he grew up a Dodger fan, one would think he'd want to bolster his HOF case as a one team player on the Braves (and he definitely has trade veto powers).

So, let's look at the outfield and later on, the rotation.

Outfield
Needs: Left Fielder
Currently have - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Trade Bait - Juan Pierre
DFA Candidate - Andruw Jones. Or he could magically get better and be the starting CF. After all, this is when he's supposed to play for his big contract. I wouldn't expect him to be in LA unless he's on the DL all season or the Dodgers trade for Chipper.
In house - Jason Repko, Delwyn Young. Neither is probably where you'd want a starting outfielder to be, particularly given the state of the infield, although Repko is capable of having productive months when given regular playing time (see April 2006), though in a small sample, that's not too hard.

In the wings - Xavier Paul might see some time mid-season

Free Agents by likelihood- Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr

Ned Colletti would totally pull the trigger on signing Griffey if the Chisox don't pick up his option. Otherwise, it seems like the Dodgers won't pay big time for Ramirez, at least not in years. Colletti hasn't given anyone over 30 more than a 3 year contract, to his credit. I think the Dodgers offer Manny $85 million over 3 years, and that could do it.

Griffey could be had for one or two years at $10 million per. Abreu would go for 2-3 years at about $12 million per. Pat Burrell will get paid more than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn will probably not sign until Ramirez does though; a team that wants Ramirez would likely settle for Dunn. While it would be a very unlikely move for Colletti, I could see him doing it because Dunn's been a 40 HR guy the past 5 years and we'd be taking him from AZ, a double whammy. Dunn will likely get $80 million over 4 years, Burrell might get a bit more.

Outgoing
Pierre isn't much for bait, but he does want a trade, and he's probably still useful to someone. LA will have to eat much of his salary (probably about $20 million worth over the remaining 3 years), but one has to think that he could fit into the NL East. Philadelphia would suffer picking him up for Burrell, although he'd have some nice range in left field, but that would also put another left-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup. The Mets would make sense except they already have Endy Chavez, although outfield depth would be nice. The Nationals have Dukes, Kearns and Milledge, who are better in that outfield, so no thanks (although a Pierre for Kearns swap is believable, especially if the Nats save $10 or 12 million, although there is no substance to that, I'm purely speculating). The Braves possibly, if they need someone to be a stopgap.

I think Pierre gets traded for Endy Chavez and a 25 year old guy in AA, with LA eating $15 million. I think then that the Dodgers stick with Andruw Jones and hope for the best, as Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell will get offers ahead of Manny, the Chisox pick up Griffey's option, and Abreu goes somewhere random.

No comments: