How Much Better is Nick Markakis than Andre Ethier?

Markakis the 7th overall pick in 2003 while Ethier was a 2nd round pick that year. Markakis is a more athletic outfielder with a bit more power, and he's also a year and a half younger.

Let's run some numbers:

Markakis
2003 minors (Age 19, A-): .283/.374/.395
2004 minors (Age 20, A): .299/.373/.470
2005 minors (Age 21, A+/AA): .310/.390/.504
2006 majors: .291/.351/.448 (106 OPS+), .268 EqA, 7.1 WARP3
2007 majors: .300/.362/.485 (121 OPS+), .284 EqA, 9.6 WARP3

Ethier
2003 minors (Age 21, A-/A): .296/.364/.389
2004 minors (Age 22, A+): .314/.379/.442
2005 minors (Age 23, AA): .317/.384/.492
2006 majors: .308./365/.477 (113 OPS+), .282 EqA, 3.5 WARP3
2007 majors: .284/.350/.452 (103 OPS+), .267 EqA, 5.0 WARP3

The folks at B-P give a lot of credence to Markakis' superior defense, though to be fair, Ethier played better defense in 2007 when he did not hit as well. Even then, though, that would lead one to compare Markakis' 2006 to Ethier's 2007, and Markakis comes out on top by a couple of wins. Markakis also could potentially play center, something Ethier doesn't have in his arsenal.

Markakis is better, and has the level of talent to be a franchise player, provided that Baltimore can afford him in 4 years. That doesn't mean Ethier's a bad player, but he's not they kind of player you would build your team around.

Regulars

September has come, and the Dodgers should really consider themselves out of the playoff race, but they won't. Whatever, but let's see. Here are the 6 guys who made up the offense the most ranked by their WARP3:

Russell Martin
raw: .298/.378/.474, 119 OPS+, 21 SB, 7 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 8.38 (1st of 17)
RATE2: 110
Warp3: 9.7

Rafael Furcal
Raw: .279/.346/.367, 85 OPS+, 16 SB, 6 CS, 5 HR
EQA: .252
RF: 5.00 (2nd of 25 qualifiers)
RATE2: 118
Warp3: 8.0

Jeff Kent
raw: .295/.371/.498, 122 OPS+, 1 SB, 2 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 4.67 (19 of 22)
Rate2: 93
Warp3: 6.2

Andre Ethier
raw: .288/.354/.450, 107 OPS+, 0 SB, 4 CS, 10 HR
EQA: .272
RF: 2.12 (10 of 20)
Rate2: 121/106 LF/RF
Warp3: 5.7

Luis Gonzalez
raw: .276/.355/.425, 101 OPS+, 6 SB, 2 CS, 12 HR
EQA: .270
RF: 1.73 (16 of 19)
Rate2: 98
Warp3: 4.2

Juan Pierre
raw: .291/.323/.348, 74 OPS+, 53 SB, 11 CS, 0 HR
EQA: .247
RF: 2.30 (15th of 16 qualifiers)
Rate2: 91
Warp3: 3.3

Some thoughts
1) Next year, Kemp should get the regular gig in right field and Gonzalez should be gone. This puts Ethier in Left Field, where his advantage over Gonzalez will drastically improve the overall outfield defense.

2) Juan Pierre needs to end his streak.

3) Furcal is too good defensively given his bat this year. Granted the ankle injury took his power off, but to only have 5 HR now when he had 15 on the year last year hurts.

4) Kent's defense gets worse all the time, but he's still the best overall hitter on the team among regulars, at least until Matt Kemp is a regular.

5) Ethier should not steal bases. He might be better suited as a 5 or 6 hitter for that reason.

The Wisdom of Dodger Blues

From Asshole of the Moment:
3.24.07 - Grady Little
If Rafael Furcal isn't ready for Opening Day, don't expect Nomar to make the logical switch to short with James Loney slipping in at first. Instead, it looks like Little would go with Tony Abreu at shortstop—a position he doesn't play. Little will tell you that he doesn't want Nomar getting hurt, but if that's the case, why even play him at all? Why not just put him in a display case behind home plate and let people take pictures of him?

This is really an excellent point, and matters are made worse by the fact that instead of Abreu, it's a platoon of Wilson Valdez and Ramon Martinez. While this is better than Hamulack and Carter out of the bullpen, it is horrible nonetheless. Moving Nomar over to short and playing Loney at first would upgrade defense at first and the lineup overall. Besides, Nomar would presumably last longer at short than, oh, SATURDAY, when Furcal should be back. And you could have still kept Kemp in the lineup.

Further, I nominate Grady for AHOTM for suggesting that Ethier should be platooned. Ethier can hit left handers, which we established last year, but Gonzo can't. Further, if he's basing this on one game, that's absurd. For that matter, why not bench Pierre and Gonzalez, who sucked in the game . . . YESTERDAY! Or maybe banish Derek Lowe to the bullpen for only lasting 4 innings and then promote Hendrickson to the rotation (no, don't. Please don't). This is insanity, and nothing less. Tomorrow should turn out better, though, because it's Jason Schmidt against Jeff Suppan.

In which I respectfully but critically remark on Sarah Morris's last Column

From her website as well as Dodgers.com, Sarah Morris wrote a bit on the Dodgers need for better defense. I comment on some excerpts:

Although many baseball fans often overlook the defense, it is mandatory to any baseball team. Poor defense can undermine a superior pitching performance, but good defense can bail out a struggling pitcher. Last year the Dodgers had middle-of-the-league defense, and this season the Dodgers should have an improved defense.

So far not bad, and full of her typical optimism.

The Dodgers and many of their fans worried about the starters’ endurance. This off-season Ned Colletti signed Randy Wolf and Jason Schmidt, who have averaged 200 innings a year, to help limit the trips to the bullpen. They will, but committing fewer errors should lead to shorter innings. When the team doesn’t make an error, a pitcher will have an easier time getting three outs with fewer than 16 pitches. An error gives the opposition an extra scoring opportunity.

A spectacular defensive play or an inning-ending double play can save the game for a team. Sometimes a pitcher allows the opposition to load the bases with no outs. If he can rely on his defense, he can let the batter hit the ball. A soft pop up and a double play end a potentially messy inning. A defensive play that makes everyone go, “Wow!” can prevent a multiple-run inning. Both an awesome play and an inning-ending double play can help the team’s morale and discourage the opposition.

She is partly right here, as failure to make an out on a ball in play can shorten innings. Making an error is a way of failing to make such an out. Another way, though, is in playing a player with poor range who can not reach a ball that a more nimble player may be able to get to, or having a catcher who can't throw out baserunners. It is also true that while errors can be declared arbitrarily, they do affect a pitcher mentally, and that pitcher's mental toughness affects his confidence as well as his ability to think straight. Kenny Lofton did not get "errors" for his adventures in the outfield last year, though, but that clearly had detrimental effects. While the wow factor affects other mental and emotional parts, a spectacular play does not differ a lot from a routine play. Still, though, nothing too objectionable yet.

The popularity of Moneyball has lessened the emphasis on having good defense. Though the book has some good ideas, putting less importance on defense was not one. The Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith prevented more runs with his amazing glove than he produced offensively. Many baseball people believe players can learn defense while they can’t learn to hit. Not many people can learn Gold Glove defense.

In the first place, the analysis in the first paragraph of the story, while somewhat intuitive, is part of the moneyball way of thinking. It's the same mentality that says you're overpaying if you sign Jeff Suppan for a 4 year deal, because defense is a part of what makes up pitching. The fact is that defense is just harder to quantify, and further, it is harder to determine the difference on the margins. Gold Glove defense is arbitrary, and particularly hard to learn since the award can be given to Brad Ausmus over Yadier Molina, and Edgar Renteria twice. Further, that a player won a gold glove does not guarantee good defense, as Kenny Lofton's 2006 was a decade past his last gold glove award.

In the National League, having a good defense is more important than it is in the American League. Without the designated hitter, the National League typically has lower scoring games than in the American League. Many baseball fans prefer the National League or “Old School” style of baseball when the teams must pitch, defend, and manufacture runs well to be successful.

To some extent, sure, since the marginal value of preventing a run would decrease if runs are easier to come by. But to the extent that pitchers do not strike out more batters in the American League, there are still as many balls in play, so you still need defense. The impact of the DH is not nearly as drastic as Sarah makes it out to be; rather, it just means that there's less for the manager to do because you never need to make a double switch. It is asinine, though, to suggest that pitching and defense don't matter in the AL, and it doesn't make sense in either case to give up outs for the sake of potentially "manufacturing runs."

In 2004, the Dodgers had the best defense in baseball. Dodger fans delighted watching the National League Western Divisional title team field. The double play duo of Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis made marvelous plays that made crowds gasp in delighted amazement. Adrian Beltre was a human vacuum cleaner at third base. The Dodgers’ superior defense helped them win many games and made other weaknesses of the team seem unimportant.

In 2004 the Dodgers had the best fielding percentage in baseball, but Izzy also led by a good margin in Zone Rating at short. Beltre is clearly one of the better defensive third basemen in the game. The main weakness for LA that year was in starting pitching, as Beltre was a great hitter in 2004, and Shawn Green was still a little useful, and LA had Bradley too. The rotation consisted of Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez, Jose Lima, help! and help!. Brad Penny promptly hurt himself after being traded for, and Derek Lowe would not arrive until the next season. The Dodgers also had a healthy Gagne along with the likes of Mota and Brazoban to set him up. That defense did help the starting pitching, admittedly, until the Dodgers reached the playoffs and gave two starts to Odalis Perez

The Dodgers lost J.D. Drew, but they won’t miss him defensively. Both Andre Ethier and Luis Gonzalez are better outfielders than Drew is. With one year of major league experience, Ethier shouldn’t make as many mental errors as he did. Gonzalez is still fast, and this will enable him to cover much ground. Jason Repko, an excellent defensive outfielder, should be the fourth outfielder, and Dodger fans should expect to see him as a defensive replacement in the later innings.

Repko will probably be traded because Pierre's the kind of guy who will play 162, and Repko is most useful as a CF with his arm and range. Drew is better defensively than Ethier, but I will admit he had a tendency to completely lose his mind on occasion. I saw a game where LA played in RFK last year, and Drew completely botched the first ball that came to him, misplaying an out (maybe a single) into a double. I have seen two Dodger games in person, and JD Drew went 0-5 in each of them.