Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Manny being Banny-ed

"Did you know that you can fool the breathalizer test by chewing on activated charcoal tablets?"
"Well, maybe we should change our slogan to "If you must drink and drive, suck charcoal."
"Won't the police ask about the charcoal in your mouth?"
"There's not a law against charcoal."
"Yet."
- Thank You for Smoking

Manny Ramirez tested positive for drugs in violation of the MLB policy. The most useful bit of information to be found in this ESPN story:
Ramirez and his representatives were prepared to appeal the synthetic testosterone results, intending to argue he had taken a steroid precursor known as DHEA, according to two sources. The drug is akin to the now-banned substance famously known as Andro, but it is not on baseball's banned list. (emphasis added)

Baseball had geared up to dispute the argument, and a Ramirez appeal was scheduled for last Wednesday. MLB's legal team intended to use expert testimony to cite evidence it believed showed DHEA could not have been the cause of the synthetic testosterone.

This makes for a nice messy and technical legal dispute, and while it's kind of messy, it is legal, interestingly enough. But the story gets more interesting:
However, in the days before the hearing, the union turned over Ramirez's medical records -- and they turned out to be a boon for MLB.

Within the records was a prescription written for the drug human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) -- No. 55 on the list of banned performance-enhancing substances in the policy. The drug is mainly used for female fertility issues, but it is best known among male steroid users as a substance that can help kick-start the body's production of natural testosterone, which is stymied when using synthetic testosterone (aka steroids).

That stuff probably looked like this, innocently enough. And while sources indicate that there were problems with his testicles that let him to use the drugs, he failed to get a proper medical exemption. Players can get a Theraputic Use Exemption (TUE) under the drug policy, as is stated here:

1. A Player authorized to ingest a Prohibited Substance through a valid, medically appropriate prescription provided by a duly licensed physician shall receive a Therapeutic Use Exemption ("TUE"). To be "medically appropriate," the Player must have a documented medical need under the standards accepted in the United States or Canada for the prescription in the prescribed dosage. A urine sample which is found to contain a Prohibited Substance will not be deemed a positive test result if such sample was provided by a Player with an effective TUE for that substance. A Player with a TUE for a Prohibited Substance does not violate the Program by possessing or using that substance.

2. A Player seeking a TUE must notify, or cause the issuing physician to notify, the IPA of the existence of the prescription. Whenever requested to do so by the IPA, the Player shall provide, or cause the issuing physician to provide, documentation
supporting the issuance of the prescription. If the issuing physician is not duly licensed in the United States or Canada, the IPA shall request that the Player provide such documentation. The IPA shall notify the Player and counsel for the Association of any request for documentation. Following his/her review of such documentation and, if necessary, consultation with an expert in the area covered by the prescription, the IPA shall determine whether to grant the TUE. The IPA shall report that determination to the Player and to the Parties and, in the event of a denial, forward to the Parties the documentation received and all other material reviewed in reaching that determination. (See Section 9.C.1(c) below.)

3. A TUE shall be effective from the date the Player notified, or caused the issuing physician to notify, the IPA of the existence of the prescription involved, and shall not be effective for any use or possession of a Prohibited Substance prior to that date. A Player who is determined not to qualify for a TUE may not challenge a determination that he violated the Program by contending, in connection with a "no fault or negligence" defense or otherwise, that he believed he would qualify or had qualified for a TUE; however, a Player is not otherwise precluded from introducing evidence of medical treatment in support of such a challenge.

We don't have a lot of time. And it's going to be a lot harder because you're gay now.
- Deleted scene from Team America: World Police

Ramirez is probably most upset that his doctor did not inform him that he was using a banned substance. It is also possible that he has stopped taking the substance recently, and as a result is crying a lot more. But seriously, my guess is that Ramirez was prescribed a brand name of the drug, not the generic name, because that's what doctors prescribe to you, and if he asked a couple more questions or if his doctor told him, he might have been ok (it's also possible that his doctor was a Giants fan). In any event, Manny is planning on suing the doctor, because doctor mistakes do happen.

So what we know is that Manny was using a suspicious substance that was legal, and an illegal substance for a legitimate medical reason that he didn't get approved by MLB. It is likely that upon realizing that he could not get an exemption from it, and it certainly could not be a retroactive exemption, that he gave up and figured to do his time. It would appear that Manny's failure to perform due dilligence in taking care of his own personal, er, ball team has caused him to let his baseball team down.

Brian Wilson must not be a Forgive and Forget Christian

Wilson was upset that Casey Blake mocked his gesture which he frequently does at the end of games, which is apparently in honor of his faith and his late father.

The Dodgers won't face the Giants again until Aug. 10 in San Francisco, but Wilson told reporters in that city that he has "a pretty good memory."Wilson didn't deny that Blake's gesture could intensify the rivalry between the clubs.

"It could be a catalyst if you want to look at it that way," he said.

"There's always something to fuel the fire. You're always looking for some excuse to get riled up."The incident so upset Wilson that he wouldn't speak to reporters about it Sunday and had to be consoled by teammates.

Asked whether Blake's actions surprised him, Wilson said, "In this day and age, everyone's got some meaning behind what they do. Whether a guy crosses home plate and points to the sky; he's not just pointing to the clouds, right?"

Well, when you consider that Barry Bonds always went with that last example, you kind of wonder. It could be that one is attempting to appear pious, since that's what you assume when someone points to the clouds. But really, there is plenty of genuine persecution of Christians in the world, and it is an insult to those who genuinely suffer, and to other members of the faith, to claim that merely being offended or mocked amounts to persecution. Particularly in the case of Blake and Wilson, where this was not about religion, it was about mocking a closer and getting in his head.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Scouting Without Looking - Russell Martin

One of the biggest puzzles for the Dodgers this season, last night's walk-off walk notwithstanding, is what happened to Russell Martin offensively? Right now, he's hitting .198/.301/.247, compared to Brad Ausmus' .462/.500/.538. Granted, that could be part of his plan to go deeper into the season by making playing Ausmus look appealing, but the unavoidable fact is that Martin isn't hitting worth shit. Looking at his Fangraphs page, these are the numbers that stand out:

K%, HR/FB, IFFB%, FB%, CB%, ZSwing%, Swing%, OContact%, FStrike%

Based on those bits of information, here's what I would say:

To start off, Martin has been fooled a lot more, going for pitches out of the zone that he can't get, yet not going for good pitches in the zone. As a result, he's striking out more than he ever has (about 10% more of his ABs), and he's not getting the kind of hits he would want yet. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he's inviting pitchers to throw first pitch strikes more with his patient approach, and he should swing at that pitch down the pike on the first pitch, at least every so often to mix it up, especially when pitchers are throwing you a lot more first pitch strikes. He's 1 for 8 on balls in play that he's made contact with on the first pitch, but he's a career .316 hitter on those pitches.

Of course, part of that could just be a bad first month, but after the All-Star Break last year, he hit .260/.371/.336, relying heavily on his plate patience, and it would appear that pitchers are exploiting that now.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

My fantasy league

Since nobody reads this, I'll go ahead and post stuff about my fantasy team, so then I can see a record of how I did in the future. So I will always remember it.

A friend of mine wanted to create a league so he used CBS's comissioner setup. CBS sets up baseball lineups weekly - daily lineups make it too easy to manipulate starting pitchers. This is a bit of a challenge: Joba vs the Royals or a 2 start week for Dan Haren? The scoring is a hybrid of 5x5 roto and head to head - you challenge your opponent in the 5x5 categories. Most H2H leagues use a sillier version of linear weights.

Just so you know, you should play fantasy baseball so you can learn about the rest of the league. Why the hell are the Rays so good? Will Troy Tulowitzki recover (and why wasn't he the rookie of the year) and be the awesome SS we saw in 2007? Why do they call Matt Kemp the Bison (you could check Wikipedia, actually).

My lineup in that league:
Bengie Molina - C
Jorge Posada - C
Prince Fielder - 1B
Chase Utley - 2B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Evan Longoria - 3B
Jack Cust - OF
Andre Ethier - OF
Curtis Granderson - OF
Matt Kemp - OF
Torii Hunter - OF
Cameron Maybin - U
Rafael Furcal - U

Pitchers
Erik Bedard
Jonathan Broxton
Joba Chaimberlain
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
James Shields
Adam Wainwright

Bench
Clayton Kershaw
Oliver Perez
Cody Ross
Richie Weeks

Friday, April 3, 2009

Yeah, we signed Manny since my last post

Expect the following lineup regularly, after a while:

Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake

although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like

Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake

but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.

Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.

There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.

Why I Hate Blogging

I have about as many drafts as I do posts, which pop up everytime I open Blogger. It's annoying - blogging is more work than one would imagine. I like to have link-happy posts with in-depth analysis or something like that. But that's not easy, as it turns out. So that's what happens when I go months without updating.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

O-Dog, Can You See

The Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a 1 year deal, making the Casey Blake 3 year deal look like the worst move of the offseason, except for giving AJ Burnett 5 years when he'll spend at least two of them on the DL.

This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.

As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.

If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)

Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)

And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.

I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.