Monday, July 20, 2009

Deadline Assessment

On a team that's in first place with the best record in baseball, what could they possibly need more of? A tough question, given that the Dodgers have been pretty darn good all year, and just about everyone on the roster has been solid. Let's examine:

Starting Lineup:
Martin. While he hasn't been hitting for any kind of power, you have to appreciate how he's gotten on base so darn consistently. Looking at his splits, though, pitchers tend to pitch around him with runners on base, and he's more likely to take the walk, thus the low RBI totals. But given how Dodger catchers, or any catchers, usually perform in the second half, let's hope he'll be an outlier this year.
Loney. Loney doesn't have the power you want for a first baseman, but he does tend to deliver with runners in scoring position. Frequently. He's more aggressive than Martin, and he still has a little bit of pop, or at least more than Martin. And for his career, Loney has an ISO power of .143 in the first half and .191 in the second half - he hits the ball harder later in the year. Like in the NLDS. So I'm not giving up on him. And for what it's worth, he seems to be one of Ramirez's favorite guys on the team.
Hudson. The All-Star reminded us of the risk the Dodgers took when signing him - he's fragile. If he's not healthy, the Dodgers have Blake DeWitt to back him up, which isn't a bad thing. Hudson is more of a first half player anyway, though; while he'll probably be useful for a while, the Dodgers may have seen the best of him.
Blake. Surprisingly good, the Beard has come through for the Dodgers offensively, posting a .279/.362/.472 line. Blake does tend to perform at a lower level in the second half, although that is almost entirely due to a lower BABIP. So we might still be able to depend on Blake.
Furcal. In 2006, Furcal was off to a terrible start, hitting .267/.345/.346 before the first half while dealing with nagging injuries. In the second half, though, he hit .339/.399/.564 with 11 HR in 298 AB to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, where JD Drew and Jeff Kent ruined everything. In 2007, Furcal began the year with a .273/.341/.354 line. No problem, he'll just have a great 2nd half again, right? Wrong, he hit .266/.322/.355 while dealing with more injuries. We're hoping he's more like 2006 this year, although maybe he needs to feel more of the pressure that year. Someone else, though, has been stealing the spotlight, and his name is...
Manny. He's been good except for when he was naughty and punished. He might have legitimately had sexual dysfunciton, but it's easier to smear him as a juicer. Fair enough. In any event, people largely seem to accept that he's done his time and it's time to move on. Or they're sick of hearing about steroid users. In any event, he's OPSing 1.000 and he's happy where he is. That doesn't make a difference in his performance, but the ESPN guys want you to think it does. Juan Pierre had a great run in his absence, but his last few games he's seeing fewer pitches, etc, like he's not in Beast Mode anymore.
Kemp. Can you say superstar? "Matt Kemp is probably nicknamed the Bison because he's tougher than a Robot Made of Nails." Kemp is hitting for better average than last year, and he's showing better plate discipline as well, posting a .321/.385/.500 line so far. His power and speed numbers are looking solid too, and his defense has been remarkable, including his pre all-star break overhead backwards catch to end the game.
Ethier. Hitting for power, and likely to be the first 30 HR Dodger since Beltre in 04, Ethier is having a relatively rough year at the plate. He's been striking out a lot more, which has pulled his average down to .254, and his walk rate is a bit better too. Ethier's BABIP is way down this year, and while his LD rate is down slightly and could fluctuate, his FB% is up and GB% is down by a lot, which will significantly drop his average. Granted, his HR/FB% is nice at over 15%, but he'll have to improve a bit or cut his K rate down a bit to get back to where he wants to be.

The offense is amazingly not a problem for this year's Dodgers. While some more power would be nice, that will come with more plate appearances for Manny, and a good second half from Furcal and Loney. Like 2006, they lead the league in OBP, and they will probably still leave a lot of men on base.

The Dodgers pitching is...also very good. But let's look at what might be improved:

Chad Billingsley appears to be hitting a rough patch. His ERA has soared to 3.76, and the biggest problem seems to be Torre not pulling him - either when he's thrown over 100 pitches ing the game or 30 pitches in an inning. Sure he's the staff ace, but at 24, he's still a young pitcher, and the Dodgers have an 8 man bullpen.
Clayton Kershaw looks like he's in a groove. His 2.91 ERA and 8.8 k/9 are the nicer stats, although his walk rate is a bit troubling. He is avoiding the worst true outcome, though - he's not giving up the long ball. Having surrendered 5 in 106 innings is remarkable, and will help him get away with his success.
Randy Wolf has given up the long ball more, but doesn't let other guys on base. With a rotation leading 1.1 WHIP, he's been quite good for the Dodgers. There haven't been any health scares this year (and he pitched 190 innings last year), so the king of the no-decision looks like he deserves some respect.
Hiroki Kuroda still seems to be getting back into things, but he seems to be in line with where he was last year. He'll have his rough spots, and then he'll be brilliant, and for the most part he'll be pretty good. When you have Billingsley and Kershaw, he's a good player to mix in. Still works efficiently.
Eric Stults continues to be a useful surprise, but doesn't seem to get his spot in the rotation.
Jeff Weaver performed decently enough as a swingman so far, and he'll probably continue to be good in that role. His peripherals do not support his ERA at all, so unless he can be an extreme groundballer, he may drop off.
Jason Schmidt must be watched for the next couple games. If he can hold up for 5 or 6 innings a start, that would be a great lift to the Dodger rotation. To have a rotation of Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf, Kuroda, Schmidt with the minor leaguers the Dodgers have would give them a lift; it wouldn't be Halladay, but it wouldn't be as costly.

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton showed us that with a healthy toe, he's still the dominant guy he's been all year. Looking a lot like Gagne in 03 but with a higher walk rate and an even bigger waistline, Broxton has struck out 70 in 42 2/3 innings and only surrendered one homer. That's dominance.
Ronald Belisario came out of nowhere, and now he's hurt and the Dodgers are worried. There might not be more talent in nowhere. Or is there?
Ramon Troncoso has peripherals more like Wade and an ERA more like Wade last year, but he's been the man in 09.
Guillermo Mota has worked his way back to being respectable. Having surrendered only 3 homers in 44 innings, Mota is no Broxton, but he can get us there.
Brent Leach is a good situational lefty guy, and the rookie has been put in some high leverage situations with mixed results. It's encouraging to see Torre give him a shot, though.
James McDonald looks more comfortable in the bullpen than in the rotation, having posted a cool 2.35 ERA as a reliever with a 1.239 WHIP. Don't know if that's what the Dodgers want to do with him, but they might have to consider it as an option.
Claudio Vargas - "Sir Not Appearing in this Film"
Scott Elbert - has struck out 12 and walked 2 in 11 innings. That's not a lot of innings.

Extra depth for the rotation and/or bullpen would be nice, but the Dodgers could accomplish that by bidding money for Ben Sheets more effectively than bidding players for Roy Halladay. Besides, wouldn't a clubhouse of Sheets, Loney and Ramirez be hilarious?

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