Sunday, September 30, 2007
Sunday, September 23, 2007
What went wrong
MSNBC, the TV network that brought you Don Imus, has more dumbasses to spew out garbage. Here is Michael Ventre:
The Dodgers have been out of the NL wild card race for some time now, even though they have yet to make it official. It’s like knowing that somebody is quitting a job soon, because they’ve been packing up their belongings, taking three-hour lunches and generally slacking off. All that’s missing is the memo.
As a matter of fact, they were in the race until their rotation collapsed after Randy Wolf joined the esteemed group of veterans on the Disabled List, they traded a useful young power hitter for a 30 year old middle reliever and were then forced to rely on Shea Hillenbrand as an everyday third baseman, a position at which no other team in baseball would even think of playing him because of his demonstrated inability.
This “geezer-punk” assemblage has lost five in a row at a time when the San Diego Padres, making a run at the division title, have won seven straight. The Dodgers just suffered their first-ever four-game sweep by the Rockets at Coors Field. So naturally, the already cranky tricenarians and quadragenarians who creak around the clubhouse in search of their lost youth are becoming more cantankerous by the minute.
They lost like 12 in a row last year. Streaks happen in baseball over a 162 game season, especially when you have to rely on Esteban Loaiza and David Wells in your rotation. Besides, doesn't this just suggest that the veterans are assholes?
Most of the responsibility for winning has been entrusted to kids who haven’t yet learned how to win. In the context of a competitive division that includes the likes of the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies, that’s almost like conceding defeat in spring training.
This is among the goddamn stupidest things I've read. For two reasons:
1) The Dodgers' minor league system is very good. As a matter of fact, the Dodgers won the AA championship in 2005 with many of these players.
2) "Knowing how to win" is a worthless empty bullshit phrase used by reporters who don't know a goddamned thing about baseball. It's easy to know how to win: you score more runs than the other team! End of story!
3) The Diamondbacks have been winning with a bunch of young kids, quite successfully. Randy Johnson started 10 games for them. And even then, they have given up more runs than they've scored, and they should really have a losing record.
These players know how to play baseball. They would not have been drafted if they didn't. You are a worthless human being.
The Dodgers received some early love from pundits as division winners on the basis of their starters. But they’ve been spotty, the bullpen has faltered, and the sticks have been wildly erratic. It isn’t one statistical category that has caused the team’s downfall, but rather those “things you don’t see in the box scores,” especially team chemistry. More often than not, these have been dead men walking.
Nice. Claim that whatever is going on cannot be measured, therefore bringing you into the realm of the irrational where you cannot be disproven.
Now call me a stupid kid, because I'm a senior in college on scholarship double majoring in Math and Economics, but there are statistical reasons for the Dodgers' problems:
Slugging percentage: .404 (14th of 16 in the NL)
Caught Stealing: 47 (most in NL!)
HR: 121 (15th of 16 in the NL)
Walks: 492 (12th of 16 in the NL)
Last year, as a team, the Dodgers were 3rd in the NL in walks, ending the year with 601. The odds of the Dodgers racking up 109 walks in 7 games are, well, 0. But even with the same power problems and virtually the same team batting average, they at least slugged .432 as a team. Let's look at some other problems
Rafael Furcal 2006: .300/.369/.445 (good numbers)
Rafael Furcal 2007: .270/.333/.355 (bad numbers!)
Nomar 2006: .303/.367/.505 (good 3-hitter numbers)
Nomar 2007: .284/.329/.372 (bad 8-hitter numbers)
So in addition to $20 million worth of payroll playing worse than the previous year, the Dodgers were dead men not walking. Hahaha. I'm a writer now too!
The recent dustups caused by Lowe and Kent, as well as a recent complaint by Gonzalez that he can “see the handwriting on the wall” and therefore doesn’t expect to be back next season, and some anonymous chatter that manager Grady Little has lost his players, only underlines the reality that tension exists.
Luis Gonzalez was signed to be a stopgap veteran because Matt Kemp was believed by management to need some seasoning in the minors. It was apparent by May that Gonzalez was not necessary on the Dodgers.
The McCourts have gone the cheapie route, and in doing so, they’ve created a team with no real identity and a hazy future.
This is incredibly stupid. The Dodgers have the 2nd highest payroll in the NL, behind the Mets. Also, the Cleveland Indians have a $61 million payroll, and they just clinched a playoff spot today. As for an identity, how about their all-star catcher Russell Martin? Ever heard of him? Dumbass.
It wouldn’t be so bad if such an approach bore fruit, but it hasn’t. The Angels have worked kids like Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits, Casey Kotchman and Maicer Izturis into their plans, but they’ve managed to amass a giant lead over second-place Seattle in the AL West. They did that by building a superior pitching staff, and by making sure that the veterans who are at the heart of the lineup – Orlando Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews, Jr. – are all at or near their primes. The Dodgers, conversely, populate their roster with fantasy league scraps.
This is also hilarious. The Angels pitching success has been due to young pitchers through their farm system. Bartolo Colon had one good year in Anaheim. Further, Anaheim took some time to be successful - they've basically been rebuilding since 2004, after they followed their WS title with a losing season. Orlando Cabrera is an average hitter, as is Matthews. You can see some numbers here, like the ages of players on their pitching staff, many of whom came up through their farm system.
And again, it takes time for a farm system to develop. The Dodgers did not have a good system or good drafts until 2002 turned things around. It wasn't until last year that those players came up into the majors, because White drafts high school and junior college players. Further, these players have several years before reaching their physical peak, so there is that to consider as well.
The coming weeks will tell a lot about the direction of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now they’re going down. That’s clear. But will Kent stick around next year (he has that option)? If he does, will the Dodgers get him some experienced help so he can realistically go after that elusive World Series ring? Or will it be more of “Daddy Day Care”?
Jeff Kent is not anyone the Dodgers desperately need. He is far more of a drain on the Dodgers defensively than Nomar was in Boston. He makes stupid baserunning mistakes, and can't run that well either. Kent is really best suited to being a 1b/dh right now, and if he wants a title, he should go to the Yankees. The Dodgers' young players are not as good as they will be, but they need to play regularly, and getting players like Kent out of the way will go a long way in helping that.
The Dodgers have been out of the NL wild card race for some time now, even though they have yet to make it official. It’s like knowing that somebody is quitting a job soon, because they’ve been packing up their belongings, taking three-hour lunches and generally slacking off. All that’s missing is the memo.
As a matter of fact, they were in the race until their rotation collapsed after Randy Wolf joined the esteemed group of veterans on the Disabled List, they traded a useful young power hitter for a 30 year old middle reliever and were then forced to rely on Shea Hillenbrand as an everyday third baseman, a position at which no other team in baseball would even think of playing him because of his demonstrated inability.
This “geezer-punk” assemblage has lost five in a row at a time when the San Diego Padres, making a run at the division title, have won seven straight. The Dodgers just suffered their first-ever four-game sweep by the Rockets at Coors Field. So naturally, the already cranky tricenarians and quadragenarians who creak around the clubhouse in search of their lost youth are becoming more cantankerous by the minute.
They lost like 12 in a row last year. Streaks happen in baseball over a 162 game season, especially when you have to rely on Esteban Loaiza and David Wells in your rotation. Besides, doesn't this just suggest that the veterans are assholes?
Most of the responsibility for winning has been entrusted to kids who haven’t yet learned how to win. In the context of a competitive division that includes the likes of the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies, that’s almost like conceding defeat in spring training.
This is among the goddamn stupidest things I've read. For two reasons:
1) The Dodgers' minor league system is very good. As a matter of fact, the Dodgers won the AA championship in 2005 with many of these players.
2) "Knowing how to win" is a worthless empty bullshit phrase used by reporters who don't know a goddamned thing about baseball. It's easy to know how to win: you score more runs than the other team! End of story!
3) The Diamondbacks have been winning with a bunch of young kids, quite successfully. Randy Johnson started 10 games for them. And even then, they have given up more runs than they've scored, and they should really have a losing record.
These players know how to play baseball. They would not have been drafted if they didn't. You are a worthless human being.
The Dodgers received some early love from pundits as division winners on the basis of their starters. But they’ve been spotty, the bullpen has faltered, and the sticks have been wildly erratic. It isn’t one statistical category that has caused the team’s downfall, but rather those “things you don’t see in the box scores,” especially team chemistry. More often than not, these have been dead men walking.
Nice. Claim that whatever is going on cannot be measured, therefore bringing you into the realm of the irrational where you cannot be disproven.
Now call me a stupid kid, because I'm a senior in college on scholarship double majoring in Math and Economics, but there are statistical reasons for the Dodgers' problems:
Slugging percentage: .404 (14th of 16 in the NL)
Caught Stealing: 47 (most in NL!)
HR: 121 (15th of 16 in the NL)
Walks: 492 (12th of 16 in the NL)
Last year, as a team, the Dodgers were 3rd in the NL in walks, ending the year with 601. The odds of the Dodgers racking up 109 walks in 7 games are, well, 0. But even with the same power problems and virtually the same team batting average, they at least slugged .432 as a team. Let's look at some other problems
Rafael Furcal 2006: .300/.369/.445 (good numbers)
Rafael Furcal 2007: .270/.333/.355 (bad numbers!)
Nomar 2006: .303/.367/.505 (good 3-hitter numbers)
Nomar 2007: .284/.329/.372 (bad 8-hitter numbers)
So in addition to $20 million worth of payroll playing worse than the previous year, the Dodgers were dead men not walking. Hahaha. I'm a writer now too!
The recent dustups caused by Lowe and Kent, as well as a recent complaint by Gonzalez that he can “see the handwriting on the wall” and therefore doesn’t expect to be back next season, and some anonymous chatter that manager Grady Little has lost his players, only underlines the reality that tension exists.
Luis Gonzalez was signed to be a stopgap veteran because Matt Kemp was believed by management to need some seasoning in the minors. It was apparent by May that Gonzalez was not necessary on the Dodgers.
The McCourts have gone the cheapie route, and in doing so, they’ve created a team with no real identity and a hazy future.
This is incredibly stupid. The Dodgers have the 2nd highest payroll in the NL, behind the Mets. Also, the Cleveland Indians have a $61 million payroll, and they just clinched a playoff spot today. As for an identity, how about their all-star catcher Russell Martin? Ever heard of him? Dumbass.
It wouldn’t be so bad if such an approach bore fruit, but it hasn’t. The Angels have worked kids like Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits, Casey Kotchman and Maicer Izturis into their plans, but they’ve managed to amass a giant lead over second-place Seattle in the AL West. They did that by building a superior pitching staff, and by making sure that the veterans who are at the heart of the lineup – Orlando Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews, Jr. – are all at or near their primes. The Dodgers, conversely, populate their roster with fantasy league scraps.
This is also hilarious. The Angels pitching success has been due to young pitchers through their farm system. Bartolo Colon had one good year in Anaheim. Further, Anaheim took some time to be successful - they've basically been rebuilding since 2004, after they followed their WS title with a losing season. Orlando Cabrera is an average hitter, as is Matthews. You can see some numbers here, like the ages of players on their pitching staff, many of whom came up through their farm system.
And again, it takes time for a farm system to develop. The Dodgers did not have a good system or good drafts until 2002 turned things around. It wasn't until last year that those players came up into the majors, because White drafts high school and junior college players. Further, these players have several years before reaching their physical peak, so there is that to consider as well.
The coming weeks will tell a lot about the direction of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now they’re going down. That’s clear. But will Kent stick around next year (he has that option)? If he does, will the Dodgers get him some experienced help so he can realistically go after that elusive World Series ring? Or will it be more of “Daddy Day Care”?
Jeff Kent is not anyone the Dodgers desperately need. He is far more of a drain on the Dodgers defensively than Nomar was in Boston. He makes stupid baserunning mistakes, and can't run that well either. Kent is really best suited to being a 1b/dh right now, and if he wants a title, he should go to the Yankees. The Dodgers' young players are not as good as they will be, but they need to play regularly, and getting players like Kent out of the way will go a long way in helping that.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
The New Biggest Free Agent of the offseason
Barry Bonds will not be coming back to the Giants, and so he will become someone's DH. I'm guessing Yankees, because if A-Rod leaves to get more money elsewhere (please let it be LA), they'll need someone else to hate over there.
Free the Dodgers - Trade Kent
This means we can trade Jeff Kent.
In the wake of a barely-show-up loss Thursday in Colorado, a fifth consecutive defeat that essentially ended their playoff hopes, quiet Jeff Kent quaked.
Using words like "perplexing" and "curious" and "bitter," he took veiled shots at Manager Grady Little and direct shots at the Dodgers' kids.
"You can use all your fingers on your hand and point around," he told the media in Colorado after the 9-4 loss. "There's many things that have happened that are perplexing. Many things that have happened that are curious."
When asked if those things included Little's daily lineup and decisions, Kent said, "Everything."
This also, apparently, includes the younger players on the team, about whom Kent said, "I don't know why they don't get it."
Jeff Kent is no doubt furious over Matt Kemp's baserunning mistakes. God damn it, Jeff Kent should be making those mistakes! And aggressive mistakes are unacceptable - suddenly spacing out is much better.
This is your veteran leadership. There's a reason Jeff Kent has a reputation as a terrible teammate - he is a terrible teammate.
Kent is watching his chances for a world championship disappear. Gonzalez is mourning his chances at 3,000 hits (he's still 501 short). Garciaparra just wants last season back.
"I'm running out of time," Kent said. "A lot of kids in here, they don't understand that."
You selfish son of a bitch. You're not the most important dude on the team. You're actually washed up, and you're not going to be all that useful much longer. If anything, Grady Little should have shut you down the rest of the year so your option didn't vest. Hopefully, with nobody but Carlos Pena on the free agent market at first base, we can ship you out for something useful. Enjoy being a Yankee, you bastard.
In the wake of a barely-show-up loss Thursday in Colorado, a fifth consecutive defeat that essentially ended their playoff hopes, quiet Jeff Kent quaked.
Using words like "perplexing" and "curious" and "bitter," he took veiled shots at Manager Grady Little and direct shots at the Dodgers' kids.
"You can use all your fingers on your hand and point around," he told the media in Colorado after the 9-4 loss. "There's many things that have happened that are perplexing. Many things that have happened that are curious."
When asked if those things included Little's daily lineup and decisions, Kent said, "Everything."
This also, apparently, includes the younger players on the team, about whom Kent said, "I don't know why they don't get it."
Jeff Kent is no doubt furious over Matt Kemp's baserunning mistakes. God damn it, Jeff Kent should be making those mistakes! And aggressive mistakes are unacceptable - suddenly spacing out is much better.
This is your veteran leadership. There's a reason Jeff Kent has a reputation as a terrible teammate - he is a terrible teammate.
Kent is watching his chances for a world championship disappear. Gonzalez is mourning his chances at 3,000 hits (he's still 501 short). Garciaparra just wants last season back.
"I'm running out of time," Kent said. "A lot of kids in here, they don't understand that."
You selfish son of a bitch. You're not the most important dude on the team. You're actually washed up, and you're not going to be all that useful much longer. If anything, Grady Little should have shut you down the rest of the year so your option didn't vest. Hopefully, with nobody but Carlos Pena on the free agent market at first base, we can ship you out for something useful. Enjoy being a Yankee, you bastard.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Giving up on 2007 officially
So, what was your opinion of Kingman's Performance?
I'm raising the white flag. Unofficially, I did it as soon as Colletti revealed his true level of idiocy in signing Juan Pierre. But now, after losing a doubleheader to the goddamned Rockies, I'm giving up.
I was furious when Colletti signed Pierre, because Pierre had Kenny Lofton's defense and less patience at the plate. He steals bases and admittedly he did have a good percentage this year, but still, he's not worth $9 million per year. Not when you have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Delwyn Young, Jason Repko, and Jayson Werth already there. Sure, get Gonzalez, but Pierre?
But getting off a rant, let's consider this: The Dodgers are currently 79-72. With 11 games left, the best they can possibly get to is 90-72. The Padres are leading the Wild Card at 83-67. If San Diego plays .500 ball, which is realistic but slightly optimistic, they can go 89-73. The Dodgers, then, could at worst go 10-1 if they want to have a chance at the postseason. I don't see it happening. As much as I'd love to be wrong, I'm more interested in how late their draft pick will be now - I know it will be before 22.
I'm raising the white flag. Unofficially, I did it as soon as Colletti revealed his true level of idiocy in signing Juan Pierre. But now, after losing a doubleheader to the goddamned Rockies, I'm giving up.
I was furious when Colletti signed Pierre, because Pierre had Kenny Lofton's defense and less patience at the plate. He steals bases and admittedly he did have a good percentage this year, but still, he's not worth $9 million per year. Not when you have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Delwyn Young, Jason Repko, and Jayson Werth already there. Sure, get Gonzalez, but Pierre?
But getting off a rant, let's consider this: The Dodgers are currently 79-72. With 11 games left, the best they can possibly get to is 90-72. The Padres are leading the Wild Card at 83-67. If San Diego plays .500 ball, which is realistic but slightly optimistic, they can go 89-73. The Dodgers, then, could at worst go 10-1 if they want to have a chance at the postseason. I don't see it happening. As much as I'd love to be wrong, I'm more interested in how late their draft pick will be now - I know it will be before 22.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
2007 Free Agent Watch
First Base
Matt Stairs - could also play corner OF. A serviceable player who has some power, not a bad pickup for someone who needs an Olmedo type guy that might play more often.
This means that trading Nomar or Kent will look really good.
Second Base
Tadahito Iguchi - average 2B hitter, pretty good defensive reputation. Don't know where he ends up.
Third Base
A-Rod - the star of this year's offseason, as he will undoubtedly opt out. A signing that would spell a trade of Andy LaRoche for LA, but I would welcome it. Expect NY to want to keep him, but few others will afford him or even try to. Colletti might sign him to assert himself.
Mike Lowell - Boston will pick him up likely, unless they decide to spend more and grab A-Rod. More likely they stick with him, though, given he's put up a solid 128 OPS+ this year, and they'd rather not commit to A-Rod for a decade.
Shortstop
David Eckstein - St Louis will probably retain the all-star MVP, but it's worth mentioning.
Outfield
Matt Stairs - corner guy, not going to be everyday, probably, but not a bad player.
Sammy Sosa - recovered well from an 82 OPS+ to a 98 OPS+, but is still probably not that useful a player. He'll get people to look at him, though.
Trot Nixon - .346 OBP, .345 SLG. Bench jockey.
Geoff Jenkins - lifetime Brewer, 110ish OPS+ consistently, not a bad player to get. Milwaukee might keep him for that reason, though.
Milton Bradley - injury prone like crazy, and crazy, but a good ballplayer when he plays. Can play CF, but will likely stick to the corners.
Bobby Abreu - doing pretty good, though is walk rate is way down this year, although he still has more than Juan Pierre ever did in a season.
Barry Bonds - stay in SF, or be a DH?
Adam Dunn (T) - Having a good year, will almost certainly have 100 BB and 40 HR, but will Wayne Krivsky say that the strikeouts are a bad thing and let him go?
Mike Cameron - fading, and average hitter with a bit of power. A stopgap type of centerfielder.
Torii Hunter - an answer to a hole in CF. Look for Baltimore and NY to show interest, as the Twins won't try to afford him.
Andruw Jones - Braves will try to afford him and fail. Look for NY, Baltimore, Boston or, what the hell, Anaheim to pick him up.
Aaron Rowand - good runner up prize for those unable to get Hunter or Jones.
Catcher
Michael Barrett (30) - the best FA catcher on the market. Wow.
Jason Kendall (33) - having a terrible horrible no good very bad year. Who wants him?
Paul LoDuca (35) - May stay in NY, but who knows.
Mike Piazza (39) - No clue. Probably going for backup catcher gig, LA might look for him to give Little a reason to rest Russell Martin.
Closer
Eric Gagne - a very poor showing in Boston, though this is due to small sample size and an unusuallly high BABIP (.500! in 10 games!). This may be because his stuff is not as sharp as it once was, but that would only explain a difference from about .280 to .330. Gagne's just been having bad luck in Boston.
Mariano Rivera - His ERA is the highest it's been since he's been a closer, which sounds awful until you hear it's 3.02. But seriously, the Yankees will probably pick him up. I dont' know why I'm bothering with this paragraph.
Todd Jones - Is a middle reliever, but watch some idiot GM pay $5,000,000 for him next year.
Starting Pitcher
Tom Glavine - he's old, but still going. Will probably stick with the Mets, but who knows.
Andy Pettitte - had a good year with the Yankees. May stay, particularly as there will likely be Panic over Mike Mussina's awful year.
Kenny Rogers - he's old, and missed much of this year due to injury. That won't stop some team on picking up this veteran.
Matt Clement - out a year due to surgery, a Randy Wolf type gamble, likely to command a similar price of $8 million for a 1 year deal.
Bartolo Colon - After winning a Cy Young award 2 years ago, he's still fat, but he's been awful and injury prone. This looks like a Texas Rangers move.
Curt Schilling - best free agent pitcher on the market, and he's not coming back to Boston.
Matt Stairs - could also play corner OF. A serviceable player who has some power, not a bad pickup for someone who needs an Olmedo type guy that might play more often.
This means that trading Nomar or Kent will look really good.
Second Base
Tadahito Iguchi - average 2B hitter, pretty good defensive reputation. Don't know where he ends up.
Third Base
A-Rod - the star of this year's offseason, as he will undoubtedly opt out. A signing that would spell a trade of Andy LaRoche for LA, but I would welcome it. Expect NY to want to keep him, but few others will afford him or even try to. Colletti might sign him to assert himself.
Mike Lowell - Boston will pick him up likely, unless they decide to spend more and grab A-Rod. More likely they stick with him, though, given he's put up a solid 128 OPS+ this year, and they'd rather not commit to A-Rod for a decade.
Shortstop
David Eckstein - St Louis will probably retain the all-star MVP, but it's worth mentioning.
Outfield
Matt Stairs - corner guy, not going to be everyday, probably, but not a bad player.
Sammy Sosa - recovered well from an 82 OPS+ to a 98 OPS+, but is still probably not that useful a player. He'll get people to look at him, though.
Trot Nixon - .346 OBP, .345 SLG. Bench jockey.
Geoff Jenkins - lifetime Brewer, 110ish OPS+ consistently, not a bad player to get. Milwaukee might keep him for that reason, though.
Milton Bradley - injury prone like crazy, and crazy, but a good ballplayer when he plays. Can play CF, but will likely stick to the corners.
Bobby Abreu - doing pretty good, though is walk rate is way down this year, although he still has more than Juan Pierre ever did in a season.
Barry Bonds - stay in SF, or be a DH?
Adam Dunn (T) - Having a good year, will almost certainly have 100 BB and 40 HR, but will Wayne Krivsky say that the strikeouts are a bad thing and let him go?
Mike Cameron - fading, and average hitter with a bit of power. A stopgap type of centerfielder.
Torii Hunter - an answer to a hole in CF. Look for Baltimore and NY to show interest, as the Twins won't try to afford him.
Andruw Jones - Braves will try to afford him and fail. Look for NY, Baltimore, Boston or, what the hell, Anaheim to pick him up.
Aaron Rowand - good runner up prize for those unable to get Hunter or Jones.
Catcher
Michael Barrett (30) - the best FA catcher on the market. Wow.
Jason Kendall (33) - having a terrible horrible no good very bad year. Who wants him?
Paul LoDuca (35) - May stay in NY, but who knows.
Mike Piazza (39) - No clue. Probably going for backup catcher gig, LA might look for him to give Little a reason to rest Russell Martin.
Closer
Eric Gagne - a very poor showing in Boston, though this is due to small sample size and an unusuallly high BABIP (.500! in 10 games!). This may be because his stuff is not as sharp as it once was, but that would only explain a difference from about .280 to .330. Gagne's just been having bad luck in Boston.
Mariano Rivera - His ERA is the highest it's been since he's been a closer, which sounds awful until you hear it's 3.02. But seriously, the Yankees will probably pick him up. I dont' know why I'm bothering with this paragraph.
Todd Jones - Is a middle reliever, but watch some idiot GM pay $5,000,000 for him next year.
Starting Pitcher
Tom Glavine - he's old, but still going. Will probably stick with the Mets, but who knows.
Andy Pettitte - had a good year with the Yankees. May stay, particularly as there will likely be Panic over Mike Mussina's awful year.
Kenny Rogers - he's old, and missed much of this year due to injury. That won't stop some team on picking up this veteran.
Matt Clement - out a year due to surgery, a Randy Wolf type gamble, likely to command a similar price of $8 million for a 1 year deal.
Bartolo Colon - After winning a Cy Young award 2 years ago, he's still fat, but he's been awful and injury prone. This looks like a Texas Rangers move.
Curt Schilling - best free agent pitcher on the market, and he's not coming back to Boston.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
We have some veterans to ship out
And do we ever! Right now, we've got batting champs, MVPs, speedy centerfielders! Come and get 'em! Who are our potential trade partners this offseason?
St. Louis Cardinals
They have Jim Edmonds in Center Field, but have you seen Jim Edmonds lately? He's not an everyday kind of guy - he keeps breaking down, he's not as good a hitter, etc. Not to mention that his WARP-3 for this year was just 2.9, and Pierre's was 3.4! Given that St. Louis is in no position to spend a lot of money on a top centerfielder, especially with a rotation as bad as theirs, maybe a straight-up trade of Pierre for Edmonds would make everyone happy, especially if Edmonds doesn't insist on playing everyday. Even if Grady Little will insist on batting him 4th or 5th.
Houston Astros
Craig Biggio is retiring, so why not stick an aging veteran there for one more year and call it a transition period? Kent would go along with it, for what it's worth, because he could see his family. More importantly, the Astros might give up something for Kent, since he's still a pretty useful player.
For that matter, maybe they'd like Nomar over there. They could use a third baseman, but I don't know if Nomar wants to go to Texas, and it is his choice.
Cincinnatti Reds
Maybe they'd want Nomar at third, but again, he's got a no trade clause. Maybe if he really wants to hang out with Ken Griffey Jr and Bronson Arroyo, but I don't know how likely that is.
Atlanta Braves
They just might need a centerfielder when they can't afford Andruw Jones, and maybe they'd want a guy who can play everyday. Even when he shouldn't.
New York Mets
They could play Ruben Gotay at 2nd, or have Jeff Kent! They could also use Kent to spell Delgado, who is clearly not aging gracefully.
Philadelphia Phillies
I put this here because they thought trading Bobby Abreu made them a better team.
Washington Nationals
They locked up their infield, but maybe they'd want Pierre, or someone else who would be real high-profile to add to an opening day roster in a new ballpark. We'd take Ryan Church.
Orioles
Maybe they'd want Pierre, who would sadly be a big improvement over Corey Patterson. I wouldn't count on it, but you never know. They might go for Kent or Nomar at first base, too.
White Sox
They could try a young guy in center, or get an extra Scott Podsednik and get Juan Pierre. I hate to do that to Juan, although Ozzie would really like him.
Minnesota Twins
We know Torri Hunter isn't going to stay there. We also know that in addition to a center fielder, they could use a DH or a third baseman (Nick Punto?!), so why not offer Kent, Pierre, Nomar and cash for someone. This has the makings of a real blockbuster deal. If they're really crazy, Santana.
St. Louis Cardinals
They have Jim Edmonds in Center Field, but have you seen Jim Edmonds lately? He's not an everyday kind of guy - he keeps breaking down, he's not as good a hitter, etc. Not to mention that his WARP-3 for this year was just 2.9, and Pierre's was 3.4! Given that St. Louis is in no position to spend a lot of money on a top centerfielder, especially with a rotation as bad as theirs, maybe a straight-up trade of Pierre for Edmonds would make everyone happy, especially if Edmonds doesn't insist on playing everyday. Even if Grady Little will insist on batting him 4th or 5th.
Houston Astros
Craig Biggio is retiring, so why not stick an aging veteran there for one more year and call it a transition period? Kent would go along with it, for what it's worth, because he could see his family. More importantly, the Astros might give up something for Kent, since he's still a pretty useful player.
For that matter, maybe they'd like Nomar over there. They could use a third baseman, but I don't know if Nomar wants to go to Texas, and it is his choice.
Cincinnatti Reds
Maybe they'd want Nomar at third, but again, he's got a no trade clause. Maybe if he really wants to hang out with Ken Griffey Jr and Bronson Arroyo, but I don't know how likely that is.
Atlanta Braves
They just might need a centerfielder when they can't afford Andruw Jones, and maybe they'd want a guy who can play everyday. Even when he shouldn't.
New York Mets
They could play Ruben Gotay at 2nd, or have Jeff Kent! They could also use Kent to spell Delgado, who is clearly not aging gracefully.
Philadelphia Phillies
I put this here because they thought trading Bobby Abreu made them a better team.
Washington Nationals
They locked up their infield, but maybe they'd want Pierre, or someone else who would be real high-profile to add to an opening day roster in a new ballpark. We'd take Ryan Church.
Orioles
Maybe they'd want Pierre, who would sadly be a big improvement over Corey Patterson. I wouldn't count on it, but you never know. They might go for Kent or Nomar at first base, too.
White Sox
They could try a young guy in center, or get an extra Scott Podsednik and get Juan Pierre. I hate to do that to Juan, although Ozzie would really like him.
Minnesota Twins
We know Torri Hunter isn't going to stay there. We also know that in addition to a center fielder, they could use a DH or a third baseman (Nick Punto?!), so why not offer Kent, Pierre, Nomar and cash for someone. This has the makings of a real blockbuster deal. If they're really crazy, Santana.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Regulars
September has come, and the Dodgers should really consider themselves out of the playoff race, but they won't. Whatever, but let's see. Here are the 6 guys who made up the offense the most ranked by their WARP3:
Russell Martin
raw: .298/.378/.474, 119 OPS+, 21 SB, 7 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 8.38 (1st of 17)
RATE2: 110
Warp3: 9.7
Rafael Furcal
Raw: .279/.346/.367, 85 OPS+, 16 SB, 6 CS, 5 HR
EQA: .252
RF: 5.00 (2nd of 25 qualifiers)
RATE2: 118
Warp3: 8.0
Jeff Kent
raw: .295/.371/.498, 122 OPS+, 1 SB, 2 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 4.67 (19 of 22)
Rate2: 93
Warp3: 6.2
Andre Ethier
raw: .288/.354/.450, 107 OPS+, 0 SB, 4 CS, 10 HR
EQA: .272
RF: 2.12 (10 of 20)
Rate2: 121/106 LF/RF
Warp3: 5.7
Luis Gonzalez
raw: .276/.355/.425, 101 OPS+, 6 SB, 2 CS, 12 HR
EQA: .270
RF: 1.73 (16 of 19)
Rate2: 98
Warp3: 4.2
Juan Pierre
raw: .291/.323/.348, 74 OPS+, 53 SB, 11 CS, 0 HR
EQA: .247
RF: 2.30 (15th of 16 qualifiers)
Rate2: 91
Warp3: 3.3
Some thoughts
1) Next year, Kemp should get the regular gig in right field and Gonzalez should be gone. This puts Ethier in Left Field, where his advantage over Gonzalez will drastically improve the overall outfield defense.
2) Juan Pierre needs to end his streak.
3) Furcal is too good defensively given his bat this year. Granted the ankle injury took his power off, but to only have 5 HR now when he had 15 on the year last year hurts.
4) Kent's defense gets worse all the time, but he's still the best overall hitter on the team among regulars, at least until Matt Kemp is a regular.
5) Ethier should not steal bases. He might be better suited as a 5 or 6 hitter for that reason.
Russell Martin
raw: .298/.378/.474, 119 OPS+, 21 SB, 7 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 8.38 (1st of 17)
RATE2: 110
Warp3: 9.7
Rafael Furcal
Raw: .279/.346/.367, 85 OPS+, 16 SB, 6 CS, 5 HR
EQA: .252
RF: 5.00 (2nd of 25 qualifiers)
RATE2: 118
Warp3: 8.0
Jeff Kent
raw: .295/.371/.498, 122 OPS+, 1 SB, 2 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 4.67 (19 of 22)
Rate2: 93
Warp3: 6.2
Andre Ethier
raw: .288/.354/.450, 107 OPS+, 0 SB, 4 CS, 10 HR
EQA: .272
RF: 2.12 (10 of 20)
Rate2: 121/106 LF/RF
Warp3: 5.7
Luis Gonzalez
raw: .276/.355/.425, 101 OPS+, 6 SB, 2 CS, 12 HR
EQA: .270
RF: 1.73 (16 of 19)
Rate2: 98
Warp3: 4.2
Juan Pierre
raw: .291/.323/.348, 74 OPS+, 53 SB, 11 CS, 0 HR
EQA: .247
RF: 2.30 (15th of 16 qualifiers)
Rate2: 91
Warp3: 3.3
Some thoughts
1) Next year, Kemp should get the regular gig in right field and Gonzalez should be gone. This puts Ethier in Left Field, where his advantage over Gonzalez will drastically improve the overall outfield defense.
2) Juan Pierre needs to end his streak.
3) Furcal is too good defensively given his bat this year. Granted the ankle injury took his power off, but to only have 5 HR now when he had 15 on the year last year hurts.
4) Kent's defense gets worse all the time, but he's still the best overall hitter on the team among regulars, at least until Matt Kemp is a regular.
5) Ethier should not steal bases. He might be better suited as a 5 or 6 hitter for that reason.
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