The only thing dumber than pre-season predictions

Is a Bill Plaschke column. Especially when he gives good players a hard time.

What seemed like clubhouse defiance is now calm confidence.

That deer-in-the-headlights look has become an unfettered focus.
That is the ADD style of Plaschke. defiance does not match with deer-in-headlights. That would me more like Jeff Kent, who is a very old man. Or Grady Little, who is gone now.

Besides, Chad Billingsley is the one from Defiance (OH).

Matt Kemp will pay his own way?

The Dodgers' season depends on it.

Their unwillingness to deal him prevented them from obtaining this winter's top traded pitchers -- Johan Santana, Erik Bedard or Dan Haren.

No, those packages all took like 5 players each. Santana also came with a $140 million extention. Seattle gave up essentially Kemp, Beimel, Greg Miller, and two top A+ ball pitchers, to give the Dodger equivalent. Besides, the Dodgers don't have that great a weakness in starting pitching. They need an offense. They scored 85 fewer runs in 2007 than 2006. 85! That's half a run a game. Adding a single pitcher won't bring the team ERA down by .5 unless he posts an ERA of like 1 for 200 innings.

The Dodgers believe that by keeping his cannon in the middle of their lineup, Kemp would blow enough smoke to shroud the hole at the top of their rotation.

What? Here's the top of the Dodgers' rotation last year:
Penny - 151 ERA+, 33 GS
Billingsley - 138 ERA+, 20 GS
Lowe - 118 ERA +, 32 GS

Here's where the decent starters were
Randy Wolf - 97 ERA+, 18GS

There were 59 games started by other starters. Two other starters at an ERA+ of 100 would have been an improvement, but no dice. No other starter pitched as well. Hiroki Kuroda could stay healthy and have a 4.5 ERA and that would help the rotation a lot. Loaiza and David Wells sucked.

Now Matt Kemp has to save the season.

No. Now Joe Torre has to play the right players (bench Nomar and Pierre for LaRoche and Ethier), Ned Colletti has to put the right players on the roster (Kershaw, McDondald, Wade, LaRoche), and Rafael Furcal has to hit for his career averages (ie SLG more than 400).

He can save it with his bat, capable of at least 20 home runs, at least 80 runs batted in, at least an on-base percentage in the mid-.300s.

He can save it with his arm, which is right-field strong, and his feet, which are 20 stolen-bases fast.

Who told Plaschke about OBP? And seriously, mid .300s? That's a huge variation, from like .330 to .370. Kemp can definitely help with his ability. This is true. It is also obvious. What else does Plaschke suggest? He's got a list, so I'll number them.

(1) Will he show up at the park early for extra work? (2) Will he stay late for interviews? (3) Will he win the praise of veterans who will judge him as much on his hustled groundouts as on his home runs?

Question 1 migh be relevant, especially if he works on something useful like recognizing pitches out of the zone. The 2nd one is entirely irrelevant, and Plaschke needs to realize he isn't helping the team by being a columnist, but that's not his job. The 3rd one doesn't matter, it's just a question of how much of an asshole Jeff Kent will be.

The veterans thought the kids didn't respect winning. They thought they didn't respect the game.

The veterans quietly complained about everything from late clubhouse arrivals to dumb baserunning errors to smiles after losses.

Jeff Kent doesn't smile after a win. What the hell. Taking losses in stride and not getting bogged down? Making the same mistakes veterans make? What jerks.

Shut Up Plaschke

Seriously, the Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to a 2 year deal and Plaschke insists they keep Pierre now as a regular. But he's not joking.

The Jones signing was smart and efficient and will help folks -- including owner Frank McCourt -- forgive the terribly large contract and burden that Colletti placed last winter on Juan Pierre.

One mistake down, one to go.

Wait, what the hell? Did Plaschke just surprise me? I'm speechless! This actually would suggest the Juan Pierre signing was a complete and utter failure, and that Colletti has fixed a horrible mistake.

But that doesn't explain the rest of the article:

Now it's time to repent for the giant error that was Jason Schmidt.

Ha! I get it; Schmidt used to play for the Giants! That's so clever! So what should we do?

Colletti needs to use the outfield surplus created by the signing of Jones and do everything within his power to acquire a No. 1 starting pitcher.

Um, that means trading the good outfielders, who are about as good offensively as Jones.

When asked about his team's needs, has Joe Torre mentioned anything but pitching?

Joe Torre doesn't know who's on the goddamn roster. Hell, he probably has to ask what team he's managing every so often. Further, the Dodgers had a team ERA+ of 109 last year, which was a bit above average, and they had 3 good starters in Lowe, Penny and Billingsley. Penny with his sub-3 ERA* had a lot of people impressed, but then again, so did Jake Peavy. But Penny did finish 3rd in CY Young voting, if you think that matters. And Billingsley was superb, and he wasn't even in the rotation the whole year. Joe Torre said that because the Yankees always had problems with shitty pitching the last few years - they paid $10 million a year for Carl Pavano! Their bullpen had 2 good pitchers, and they traded one of them for Wilson Betemit. What Joe Torre doesnt' realize is that he now has a team with problems on offense, namely Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra, and last year, Rafael Furcal.

The Dodgers' field personnel love Baltimore's Erik Bedard, an aggressive hard thrower who was third in the American League in strikeouts and fourth in earned-run average.

He is a left-handed version of John Lackey, only five months younger.

No, because he's far more injury prone, and his walk rates were far too high until about the last year and a half to fully qualify him as an "ace."

Also still available is the pitcher everybody loves, Minnesota's Johan Santana, and the Dodgers could still apparently sneak in and acquire him.

The Twins got Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser for NATHAN PIERZYNSKI! HE ISN'T EVEN A GOOD BASEBALL PLAYER. FOR SANTANA, IT WOULD TAKE LIKE MARTIN, KEMP, BILLINGSLEY AND BROXTON!

Either pitcher would cost them Matt Kemp.

And like 9 other players too!

But either would put them in the playoffs. And, as Jose Lima would tell you, who knows what could happen then?

Yeah, you could be on a losing team because you traded away all your good players. And it would really suck if you failed - ask the Texas Rangers if trading for Carlos Lee was worth it. And there's more.

You say he won't be any better than the combination of Kemp and Andre Ethier? I say, in a post-steroid-era season in 2006, he hit 41 homers with 129 RBIs, so get real.

Ok. Let me humor you. I'll even compare 2006 for Jones to 2007 for Ethier and Kemp rather than 2007 for Jones. I'll even consider that RBIs matter. Kemp and Ethier combined for 23 HR and 106 RBI last year. If you pro-rated that for full seasons, though, say 550 AB each, and you combine for 35 HR and 158 RBI. Regardless of your HR to RBI conversion ratio, I'd say that's pretty good. But seriously, why do you have to compare Jones to a combination of these two, or even one of these two? Why not just put Ethier in left, Jones in Center, and Kemp in right? But Plaschke says this of Jones:

His position lets Juan Pierre become Juan Pierre

Someone who isn't good enough to be a starting centerfielder? Seriously, what is Plaschke saying here? How does getting displaced from his position put Juan Pierre in a position to succeed?

No, no, the Dodgers will not and should not trade the short-armed center fielder. Just because he was overpaid doesn't mean he lacked value. Did everybody somehow miss that he was second in the league in stolen bases and led the league in sacrifice bunts?

He had value as a bench player, but because he was overpaid meant that he was going to be used as a starter. Every day. By Ned's orders. And stolen bases are awesome for fantasy baseball, but in real baseball they don't matter as much, especially when you get caught. Pierre did steal successfully over 80% of the time, so on the whole his speed was a bit of an asset. But sacrifice bunts are what pitchers do on offense. Come on, that's nothing to be proud of - he got out on purpose more than anyone. What actually happened is that his speed has gotten worse and that's why he's no good for center anymore, and that's why his bunt hits percentage was down.

The Dodgers need to keep Pierre's speed and bunting ability at the top of the order. Goodness, it's one of the reasons Jones agreed to play here. But at least now, Pierre can move to a safer left field and be viewed for what he is -- a complementary player.

Yes, and he can complement the team very well as a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. But if Ethier and Kemp are better ballplayers, they should play ahead of him. End of story.

* - Penny actually had an ERA of 3.03 to end the year, but his ERA was under 3 for the better part of the season.

Free the Dodgers - Trade Kent

This means we can trade Jeff Kent.
In the wake of a barely-show-up loss Thursday in Colorado, a fifth consecutive defeat that essentially ended their playoff hopes, quiet Jeff Kent quaked.

Using words like "perplexing" and "curious" and "bitter," he took veiled shots at Manager Grady Little and direct shots at the Dodgers' kids.

"You can use all your fingers on your hand and point around," he told the media in Colorado after the 9-4 loss. "There's many things that have happened that are perplexing. Many things that have happened that are curious."

When asked if those things included Little's daily lineup and decisions, Kent said, "Everything."

This also, apparently, includes the younger players on the team, about whom Kent said, "I don't know why they don't get it."

Jeff Kent is no doubt furious over Matt Kemp's baserunning mistakes. God damn it, Jeff Kent should be making those mistakes! And aggressive mistakes are unacceptable - suddenly spacing out is much better.

This is your veteran leadership. There's a reason Jeff Kent has a reputation as a terrible teammate - he is a terrible teammate.

Kent is watching his chances for a world championship disappear. Gonzalez is mourning his chances at 3,000 hits (he's still 501 short). Garciaparra just wants last season back.

"I'm running out of time," Kent said. "A lot of kids in here, they don't understand that."

You selfish son of a bitch. You're not the most important dude on the team. You're actually washed up, and you're not going to be all that useful much longer. If anything, Grady Little should have shut you down the rest of the year so your option didn't vest. Hopefully, with nobody but Carlos Pena on the free agent market at first base, we can ship you out for something useful. Enjoy being a Yankee, you bastard.

Bill Plaschke is Dumb. Really Dumb.

We all know DUI is bad, all except for MLB, according to Plaschke.

Yeah, MADD is mad, and I don't blame it. Baseball struts around the national stage fighting steroids, then slips into the shadowy wings to embrace alcohol. Baseball will suspend a player for 50 games if he plays while juiced, yet zero games if he drives while drunk. Baseball has rid the clubhouse of all performance-enhancing drugs, yet continues to serve its players beer.

What's really awesome about Google's Blogger is that I copied 4 1-sentence paragraphs, and it automatically corrected that and turned it into one paragraph. Another thing I noticed is that Plaschke apparently doesn't seem to think that PED's matter with regard to cheating and the integrity of the game; the way the article is written, he seems to imply that we regulate against steroids to protect kids from destroying themselves. But I digress.

Plaschke makes a huge point here that the greatest demon in MLB is giving players free alcohol in the clubhouse. Now, if anything, this seems really to be quite pointless. Why would it matter if a player has to pay for a beer when his minimum wage is $400,000 a year? Is this really supposed to make a difference? Are we to believe now that if we forced players to leave the clubhouse that all DUI would be eliminated? After all, Tony LaRussa (who Plaschke mentions) got drunk away from the clubhouse, at a restaraunt. Should restaraunts not serve alcohol to such folks? We still haven't gotten to how one is innocent until proven guilty, but the argument here is weak enough.

But there is something more bizarre about this. Plaschke cites the death toll from drunk driving anually:

At last count, the annual ratio was about 12,000 to 1.

So 12,000 people a year die from DUI. You know what that means? There are 750 MLB players but 12,000 people a year die from DUI, so each MLB player is responsible for the death of 16 people a year. By comparison, the two Columbine killers killed 15 people including themselves, only 7.5 people per year. That is, of course, if Bill Plaschke is right and all sports-related DUI is caused by players.

We know of course, this is worthless drivel. The fact of the matter is that if anyone is responsible, it's the sports fans who do it, particularly in football. Football tailgaters will show up early enough to get drunk before the game even starts. At all kinds of sports games, you can just keep buying beers to stay intoxicated all game. If we really wanted to stop DUI at sporting events, why not ban alcohol for sale to the public? If you're serious about stopping DUI, don't be cheap.

But that's just it; people will spend a lot of money to get drunk while watching the game. At upwards of $6-7 per beer, people still managed to get smashed during a baseball game. When you have that going on, why would it matter that players can get free beer in the clubhouse. Can't intoxicated fans also potentially drive drunk, and doesn't the crowd of 20,000-50,000 matter more than a few?

Of course, maybe instead of alcohol prohibition (which America already tried), people should just look for ways to control themselves, and be more responsible. Maybe increase punishments for DUI. But look, 12,000 people a year are not dying because of MLB.

Groan

Well, the regular season is upon us, and one can certainly tell as Bill "Paragraph" Plaschke has a column out about Brad Penny. I'll leave it to the fine folks at Fire Joe Morgan to rip stuff apart, but there are a couple points I want to address.

"I don't want to leave," Penny said. "I want to finish what I started here." That's been his problem here. He has started, but never finished.

Well that's not entirely true; Brad Penny had a complete game for the Dodgers in 2005 against the Mets, as seen here, where he outdueled Pedro. Remember, it only takes one instance to disprove the word "never."

It is also worth noting that the connections to Penny's health are a bit more back door. Because he began relying on his fastball too much, he became more hittable or easier to hit a foul ball off of.

Another point in the Plaschke column:
He says he is sorry for each of last year's three infamous temper tantrums, and he has vowed to avoid them this year.

What were these:

1) He got pulled from a game after giving up 5 runs with a gigantic lead, and Grady wasn't about to let it slip away. It was the 5th inning, so that meant no win. But hey, the player's win-loss statistic is meaningless, so that's a stupid concern. Isn't that right, Bill? Oh wait, you think pitchers' win statistics matter? But you're a sports columnist, so you don't have any sense of responsibility? Ok, sure.

2) A poor umpiring call. Grady Little went to talk to Brad Penny, stepped off the mound to say a word to the umpires when they interrupted him, and then stepped back on to talk to Penny. Padres manager Bruce Bochy claimed that was a second trip to the mound, and so Penny should have only had one more batter, and the umpires actually bought such foolishness. Grady Little was ejected from this game, the only game of the season where that happened. Penny figured he was out of the game anyway, so he might as well get ejected while he was at it.
See DodgerBlues, and look for this picture, and it will remind you that Julio Lugo was also thrown out of this poorly officiated game. The score up top is wrong, though, and Penny did give up 6 runs.

3) Penny's supposedly most egregous error was in screaming at Kenny Lofton. To be fair, it is good to have a policy on this sort of thing, and Penny should not have screamed like he did, as he acknowledged. However, it is also true that Kenny Lofton was a nightmare defensively. In fact, the only way one can truly make sense of the Juan Pierre signing is in light of this incident. Pierre led the NL (and I think the majors too) in zone rating last year, meaning that if someone hit the ball to center field, he'd get it more often than anyone on average. Pierre was signed because he was the best defensive option in center field, unless you think Alfonso Soriano's arm outweighs his instincts (like 1 handed catches on routine flies). Even as he'll be a dropoff from Kenny Lofton at the plate, Pierre will probably make up at least some of that in center field. Penny has played with Pierre before too: back in Florida, where they won the World Series in 2003.

******

Now admittedly, Penny needs to cool down quite a bit, but so does Bill Plaschke.