Monday, February 18, 2008

The only thing dumber than pre-season predictions

Is a Bill Plaschke column. Especially when he gives good players a hard time.

What seemed like clubhouse defiance is now calm confidence.

That deer-in-the-headlights look has become an unfettered focus.
That is the ADD style of Plaschke. defiance does not match with deer-in-headlights. That would me more like Jeff Kent, who is a very old man. Or Grady Little, who is gone now.

Besides, Chad Billingsley is the one from Defiance (OH).

Matt Kemp will pay his own way?

The Dodgers' season depends on it.

Their unwillingness to deal him prevented them from obtaining this winter's top traded pitchers -- Johan Santana, Erik Bedard or Dan Haren.

No, those packages all took like 5 players each. Santana also came with a $140 million extention. Seattle gave up essentially Kemp, Beimel, Greg Miller, and two top A+ ball pitchers, to give the Dodger equivalent. Besides, the Dodgers don't have that great a weakness in starting pitching. They need an offense. They scored 85 fewer runs in 2007 than 2006. 85! That's half a run a game. Adding a single pitcher won't bring the team ERA down by .5 unless he posts an ERA of like 1 for 200 innings.

The Dodgers believe that by keeping his cannon in the middle of their lineup, Kemp would blow enough smoke to shroud the hole at the top of their rotation.

What? Here's the top of the Dodgers' rotation last year:
Penny - 151 ERA+, 33 GS
Billingsley - 138 ERA+, 20 GS
Lowe - 118 ERA +, 32 GS

Here's where the decent starters were
Randy Wolf - 97 ERA+, 18GS

There were 59 games started by other starters. Two other starters at an ERA+ of 100 would have been an improvement, but no dice. No other starter pitched as well. Hiroki Kuroda could stay healthy and have a 4.5 ERA and that would help the rotation a lot. Loaiza and David Wells sucked.

Now Matt Kemp has to save the season.

No. Now Joe Torre has to play the right players (bench Nomar and Pierre for LaRoche and Ethier), Ned Colletti has to put the right players on the roster (Kershaw, McDondald, Wade, LaRoche), and Rafael Furcal has to hit for his career averages (ie SLG more than 400).

He can save it with his bat, capable of at least 20 home runs, at least 80 runs batted in, at least an on-base percentage in the mid-.300s.

He can save it with his arm, which is right-field strong, and his feet, which are 20 stolen-bases fast.

Who told Plaschke about OBP? And seriously, mid .300s? That's a huge variation, from like .330 to .370. Kemp can definitely help with his ability. This is true. It is also obvious. What else does Plaschke suggest? He's got a list, so I'll number them.

(1) Will he show up at the park early for extra work? (2) Will he stay late for interviews? (3) Will he win the praise of veterans who will judge him as much on his hustled groundouts as on his home runs?

Question 1 migh be relevant, especially if he works on something useful like recognizing pitches out of the zone. The 2nd one is entirely irrelevant, and Plaschke needs to realize he isn't helping the team by being a columnist, but that's not his job. The 3rd one doesn't matter, it's just a question of how much of an asshole Jeff Kent will be.

The veterans thought the kids didn't respect winning. They thought they didn't respect the game.

The veterans quietly complained about everything from late clubhouse arrivals to dumb baserunning errors to smiles after losses.

Jeff Kent doesn't smile after a win. What the hell. Taking losses in stride and not getting bogged down? Making the same mistakes veterans make? What jerks.

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