Sunday, January 6, 2008

Can Pierre be benched? Or - how to make $36 million matter

Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have in common that the Dodgers owe each of them $36 million for the remainder of their contracts. And that they were signed to play centerfield.

Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre

Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?

That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.

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