Monday, December 1, 2008

Free Agent Pitchers

Closers
Top picks
Francisco Rodriguez
Brian Fuentes
Brad Lidge
These guys have a good shot at being good over the course of their new contracts. Fuentes, because he's older might get a 2 or 3 year deal, but expect 4 years for Lidge and K-Rod. Lidge will command a premium after a great comeback season as he returned to dominance and threw the last pitch of the World Series, although he did take quite a hit from Ryan Howard immediately after.

Runners up
Jason Isringhausen
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera

These guys have been successful closers forever, which is the problem. Mariano stays in NY, no question, don't know why he's on the list. Nathan will be an attractive grab. Isringhausen is a bit of an injury risk, but he's not going to go for too long a deal, and he's still good.

Um, no
Eric Gagne
TrevorHoffman
Todd Jones

Hoffman and Jones are too old. Gagne has lost his dominance, but will still command an $8 million salary, probably from Ed Wade.

Lefty Relievers
A category for adding depth, but not spending more than like $3 million. This includes:
Joe Beimel, Alan Embree, Scott Eyre, Aaron Fultz, Will Ohman, Darren Oliver

Lefty Starters
Grand Prize
CC Sabathia

He'll dazzle you until he blows his arm out. And he's kind of fat. But the dude can pitch, and he'll get a nice deal with the Yankees.

Excellent picks:
Oliver Perez
Andy Pettitte

Pettitte might bring his 4 T's to the Dodgers, and he's a good dependable lefty starter. Perez is a good pick too - solid strikeout rate, and he's young enough to be valuable for a while. Perez tends to be lights out or terrible, more often lights out, though.

One-year deal club:
Randy Johnson
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Jeremy Affeldt
Scott Downs

These players are all old, injury prone, or of questionable talent. But teams will want a lefty starter, so none will be unemployed.

Righty Relievers
Luis Ayala
Joe Borowski
Juan Cruz
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Tom Gordon
LaTroy Hawkins
Guillermo Mota
Rudy Seanez
Julian Tavarez
David Weathers
Dan Wheeler
Kerry Wood

Dempster, Gordon, Farnsworth and Wood will draw the most interest, Wheeler and Tavarez decent picks too. Not a category to spend more than $3 million, though.

Right handed starters

Premium:
John Lackey
Derek Lowe
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Curt Schilling

With all eyes on CC, it's easy to forget how many good pitchers that aren't fat and overpriced there are. Lackey has been constantly brilliant in Southern California, as has Derek Lowe. Burnett is a nice pick, but like Sheets, he's a solid injury risk. Curt Schilling is the best 1 year deal available.

Pretty Good
John Garland
Brad Penny
Kyle Lohse
Paul Byrd

These are #3 starters in a good roation, #2 in most, #1 in a weaker rotation.

Bit Risky:
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Livan Hernandez
Orlando Hernandez
Jason Jennings
Pedro Martinez

The career leader in ERA+ might have to settle for a 1 year deal, and the Hernandez brothers aren't as young as they once were. Jason Jennings got hurt at just the wrong time, so he's an interesting player to take a flyer on. Colon is a fatty, and Clement hasn't been the same since he left Chicago, although much of that can be blamed on Dusty Baker.

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