Current Dodger team by WARP3

Rotation
Penny - 8.9
Lowe - 8.4
Wolf - 5.9
Billinsgley - 3.3
Kuo - 1.5

Bullpen
Saito - 6.2
Broxton - 2.9
Seanez - 2.9
Beimel - 2.1
Hendrickson - 1.8
Tomko - 1.1

Starting Lineup
Martin - 7.1
Furcal - 5.3
Gonzalez - 4.3
Kent - 3.1
Ethier - 3.4
Pierre - 2.3
Betemit - 2.1
Nomar - .4

Bench
Abreu - 1.4
Kemp - 1.1
Saenz - 0.8
Loney - 0.3
Lieberthal - 0.3
Anderson - -0.1

Hey, How about a Dodger Post!

Well here we go. The Dodgers have had some ups and downs, but have also made some roster changes. Here's the current roster:

DL:
Ramon Martinez
Jason Schmidt
Jason Repko

Position Players
Martin - C
Lieberthal - C
Nomar - 1B
Loney - 1B
Saenz - 1B/PH
Abreu - 2B/3B/SS
Kent - 2B
Furcal - SS
Betemit - 3B
Gonzalez - LF
Pierre - CF
Ethier - RF
Kemp - RF/CF
Anderson - OF

Pitchers
Lowe - SP
Penny - SP
Wolf - SP
Kuo - SP
Billingsley - SP(?)
Saito - CL
Broxton - 8
Beimel - LRP
Hendy - LRP
Tomko - RP
Seanez - RP

Seanez is actually a legitimate choice for a 7th inning guy. I'd like to see them get rid of Tomko when Tsao is ready to return, although I'd rather him be really ready than not ready like Schmidt.

If you were to do the rotation by quality, right now it would be
Penny
Lowe
Kuo
Billz
Wolf


And Kuo is a few more excellent starts away from staff ace territory. Really, that guy can pitch, and he's got great stuff. He's a worthy adversary for Roy Halladay on Wednesday. Billingsley, if he continues on the pace of his reliever numbers, could be an excellent starter too. Wolf has been slumping a bit lately, but picked it up a little in his last start. His latest difficulty is pitching deep into games, but he's still been better than expected this year.

My New Favorite Quote

"That's ridiculous. But that's the small-mindedness of Major League Baseball. They don't know what the hell they're doing. And if I get in, everybody will know that they don't know what the hell they're doing."

This is former Dodger pitcher and now independent instructor, Mike Marshall. Article here.

Jayson Stark's "Reasoning"

There are two possibilities for what Stark did in his columns (and probably his book):

1) Ask a bunch of scouts who they think is overrated or underrated

2) Dream up something off the top of his head and stick to his guns

In essence, this was a combination of (1) and (2). We can tell this by Stark's use of arbitrary statistics, such as counting statistics up to a certain age, career statistics for two players of the same age who entered the league at completely different stages of their development, pitcher wins, and batting average. Sometimes, he'll use some genuinely useful statistics, but that's only when they tend to support his view. Comparing the major league career statistics of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, though, is quite dishonest.

Another of the systematic flaws in Stark's reasoning is the failure to understand aging in baseball. The old standard age for peaking in performance was 27 at one point, but this has gotten closer to 30 or so, thanks largely to more sensible training methods, longer pitching rotations, etc. Further, different clubs will have different reasons for playing players in the majors before a certain age; Santana didn't enter the Twins' rotation full-time until he was 25 while Sabathia jumped right in at 20. The rate statistics, namely strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate statistics are important to consider here, but they must be observed in the proper context. Stark, though, compares ERA and BA of players that are of different ages and started at different points in their careers in different situations.

Perhaps the most striking failure is to have an objective reference point for which players are good and which are not. The criteria for what makes each player particularly good appears to be all in Stark's mind. The same is the case for determining which players are overrated and underrated.

***

The problem for Stark is not that he is using subjective analysis - it is very difficult if not impossible to make a truly objective determination of who is over and under rated - but he is certainly far too biased in his procedure. The evidence he uses is shaky in far too many examples. What is most egregious, though, is that he lacks any sort of consistency, other than trusting the opinions of scouts and bending the evidence around his own preconceived notions.

Me vs Stark, part 3

Jayson Stark on Underrated Players

What could be worse than the overrated list? Probably the underrated list. Let’s see what we have here.

No. 1 -- Roy Oswalt

Could somebody please explain why this guy isn't considered the National League's Johan Santana?

Let’s look here:

Oswalt career ERA+: 141
Santana career ERA+: 143

Pretty good comparison, there, but here’s where we see a difference.

Santana: 9.54 K/9, .220 Opp. BA,
Oswalt’s career: 7.49 K/9, .253 Opp BA

Santana is a much more consistent strikeout pitcher than Oswalt, which means that people hit the ball much less against him. It’s also worth noting that Oswalt is 2 years older than Santana.

Oswalt is a two-time 20-game winner. He leads all active right-handers not named Pedro Martinez in winning percentage (104-50, .675). And he's the only active pitcher who can say he has never -- never -- had a season in which his winning percentage was worse than .625 or his ERA was higher than 3.50. Yet not only has he never won a Cy Young Award -- he's finished in the top three only once. Ridiculous, isn't it?

Wins don’t mean anything. Steve Traschel won 15 games last year and sucked, and Randy Johnson won more games last year with an ERA of 5 than in 2004 with an ERA of 2.60, because run support gives pitchers wins. The run support happened to be unevenly distributed in such a way that Roy Oswalt was in line for a win more than Clemens. You’ll notice that Clemens had more no-decisions than Oswalt, and also that Oswalt had more losses than Clemens – basically everytime he didn’t have an excellent start.

A couple of years ago, I asked his catcher, Brad Ausmus, how many people -- if I polled 10,000 Americans -- would have any idea Roy Oswalt was (at the time) coming off back-to-back 20-win seasons.
"That would depend," Ausmus chuckled, "on whether anyone on our team was among the 10,000 Americans."
OK, I retorted, suppose nobody on the Astros was among the 10,000 Americans?
"Oh," Ausmus said. "Then none."

What the hell does this prove? First of all, Oswalt was hardly a low-profile unrecognized pitcher. He was in the World Series in 2005, and if people don’t recognize him from that, it’s probably because FOX is so bad at broadcasting baseball that people would rather not watch the World Series. But the point is that Oswalt was recognized as the NLCS MVP, and he was also an All-Star in 2005 and 2006. I don’t think he can legitimately claim anonymity. But really, you don’t determine popularity by asking someone whether they think someone is popular, unless you’re a retard.

Your honor, and members of the all-underrated jury, we rest our case.

Case dismissed based on poor evidence. I would have said something about leading the NL in ERA and K/BB in 2006, or how he’s pitched over 220 innings each of the last 3 seasons, or how he threw 8 shutouts in 2005, or something that is a useful statistic.

No. 2 -- Trevor Hoffman

It's always fascinating how one month -- October -- can twist the perceptions of
players in every conceivable direction. So we're going to toss all postseason
stats into the dumpster and compare only the regular-season careers of two great
closers.

Good idea.

Closer A and Closer B have both had long, distinguished careers. Closer B is
considered a cinch Hall of Famer. Closer A still has folks debating whether he's
Cooperstown-worthy or not.

Wait, you caught me off guard at first. Didn’t you say we weren’t talking about careers now? Well, I guess you get to just ramble on whatever the hell you want, so we are now.

Yet Closer A has converted 89.5 percent of his lifetime save opportunities, struck out 9.8 hitters per nine innings in his career and held those poor opposing hitters to a .207 batting average and .264 on-base percentage.

So Closer A beats Closer B in every one of these categories. Closer B's figures: 87.9 percent, 8.0 strikeouts per 9 IP, .214 average, .270 on-base. Why, then, would anyone think that Closer A might not have Hall credentials as worthy as Closer B?

Easy question. Because Closer B is Mariano Rivera, the Greatest Postseason Closer Who Ever Lived (34 saves, 0.80 ERA).

Closer A, on the other hand, is Hoffman, who once went eight years between postseason save opportunities through no fault of his own.

All right, you used some somewhat useful statistics. They seem similar enough, though Hoffman has a higher career K/9. The reason people think more of Rivera than Hoffman is far simpler – Mariano looks more legitimate on the radar gun. When you throw a mid-90s cutter that breaks more bats than anything, you’ve got good stuff. Hoffman throws a Greg Maddux fastball and
a 72 mile an hour changeup. He's had some success, with that stuff, but it must also be remembered that he plays in a huger park with worse hitters facing him.

Now obviously, I'd have to be a major goofball to argue Hoffman has a better Hall case than Rivera. But that doesn't mean Hoffman hasn't been criminally underrated. Here's the best way to put their careers in perspective:

Mariano Rivera has a career ERA+ of 195, and Hoffman’s is 149.

They have basically the same number of blown saves in their careers -- 58 for Hoffman, 57 for Rivera -- except Hoffman has had 70 more opportunities.
In other words, Rivera would have to go two seasons without blowing a single save just to say he had the same save-conversion percentage as Trevor Hoffman. So can we please give this man his due already?

Well part of the save percentage thing is because Rivera spent more time as a setup man to John Wetteland. When you’re a setup man, you don’t get saves, you get holds, but if you screw up, you get a blown save.

But if you want to talk about what’s going on right now, Rivera’s in a funk and the Yankees are sucking so much they don’t get to him, but Hoffman looks like his stuff his getting weaker. In the interest of full disclosure, I hate Trevor Hoffman, and everytime I see him pitch I really think he’s going to blow it. He gets by on way too much luck, it seems sometimes.

No. 3 -- Hanley Ramirez

We liked playing that Player A versus Player B game so much, let's try it again.

Yay.

Player A is a National League shortstop. He is averaging a .303 batting average, 129 runs scored, 76 extra-base hits and 52 stolen bases per 162 games in his career. Player B is also an NL shortstop. He's averaging .288, 114 runs, 60 extra-base hits and 61 steals per 162 games.

Steals numbers but no stolen base percentage? At all?

Player A is 23. So is Player B. So which one would you start your team with? If
I didn't tell you the names, I'm betting you'd take Player A, right? But now
let's reverse that. Let's say I had never shown you those numbers. And then I
asked if you'd rather have Ramirez (aka Player A) or Jose Reyes
(Player B). Then what?

Well then I would say shame on you for a poor comparison. You have two 23 year old players. You are comparing one player’s performance starting at age 22 and one starting at age 20. Do you really not see anything wrong with this? To be fair, you should either include Ramirez’s minor league numbers and adjust them down to estimate what he would have been in the majors, or just disregard Reyes from 2003-2005. Then you could compare Reyes and Ramirez in 2006, and see then that Reyes was marginally better (OPS+ of 118 vs 116, SB% of 79% vs 77%).

Admit it. You'd take Reyes. Heck, to be honest, I'd probably take Reyes myself. But does anybody who doesn't own a teal cap know Ramirez's numbers are actually better? Dubious. Which sums up his underratedness just about perfectly.

The people who think Ramirez’s numbers are better are the ones who don’t understand player development, or are intellectually dishonest and want to throw together a list. Besides, why would you want to mark someone as underrated when they’re already a well talked about player – Ramirez won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year! You could talk about how the Red Sox thought Alex Gonzalez would be better than him, maybe, but that might not be so happy for some people.

No. 4 -- Jake Peavy

Is there a more fun pitcher to watch in the entire National League than Peavy?
If there is, he's at least on a list that's shorter than Tim Kurkjian. Well, of
course it is.

I could make a list that’s shorter than Tim, even if he’s a 3 foot midget. But hey, he’s good. Unless, of course, you think hitting home runs is fun to watch, or you like crazy antics. Then Jose Lima, who gave Juan Pierre his first big league homer, is definitely your guy.

Since 2004, if we compare the Padres' strikeout machine to all NL starting pitchers with as many innings pitched as he has, he tops the whole league in strikeouts, strikeout ratio, WHIP and ERA. And if you enjoy swinging and missing, Jake Peavy is your man. The only NL starter who has induced that with greater frequency than Peavy (27.3 percent), according to our friends at Inside Edge, is the Phillies' Cole Hamels (27.9).

Yeah, he’s a good strikeout pitcher. He led the league in strikeouts one year, and he led the league in ERA one year, but still no Cy Young. But his ERA crept over 4 last year, so you could ignore him then.

Yet Peavy is probably only about the 15th-most-talked-about pitcher in his own time zone. And anybody with that kind of greatness-to-pub ratio is a lock to make a list like this.

A bit of hyperbole there, but true enough. And forget his time zone; West Coast Pitchers will easily slip under the East Coast radar.

No. 5 -- C.C. Sabathia

You know what might be the biggest upset of the year? That Sabathia didn't get
one vote in our recent "Which Pitchers Would You Pay to Watch?" poll. Heck, I'd
pay to watch him.

Was it one of those online polls? Was it something where you could check multiple boxes, or did you have to pick just one? If I could pick just one, I’d pick Santana. But seriously, those kinds of polls are pretty useless because they suffer from voluntary response bias. But of course, you already knew that.

He's already the first left-handed pitcher since Andy Pettitte to start his career with six straight seasons of double-digit wins.
He has won more games (88) than any active pitcher under 27. And the Elias Sports Bureau reports he's just the fifth pitcher to debut in the last quarter-century and reach 1,000 strikeouts before turning 27. (The others: Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood.)

Um, that’s nice, but he also started younger too. He was thrown into the rotation in 2001, and never pitched in relief in the majors. Johan Santana was pitching at least some of his games out of the bullpen until he was 24 (the next year he won a Cy Young award). In fact, that’s about the only reason for such numbers with such an arbitrary statistic. Besides, Jake Peavy will do that later this year. Wait till Hammels has been around a while, too. I’d also count on Felix Hernandez doing it.

But the real reason C.C. is on this list -- aside from that snub in the pay-to-watch survey -- is simple: He's only getting better. He's striking out more hitters (9.05 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And he's walking fewer hitters (1.6 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And that's what aces -- especially underrated aces -- are made of.

You forgot to make that point with Peavy. Also, getting better is not what aces are made of so much as it's what players that haven't reached their prime are made of. You also forgot that
Hoffman is over the hill. Further, you're using small sample size data again talking about the current season. Talk about the previous season too, or else you'll use really bad data.

So yes, you are retarded.

No. 6 -- Carl Crawford

Joining the Devil Rays isn't exactly the same thing as joining the witness protection program. But it's close enough in Crawford's case.

Has anybody noticed that this guy has become the first player since Rogers
Hornsby to increase his batting average and home run totals five years in a row?

Has anybody noticed that the only other players since 1900 to match his 2006 numbers in batting average (.305), stolen bases (58) and home runs (18) were Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan? Has anybody noticed he's on pace to become the only player besides Ty Cobb to reach 1,000 hits, 300 steals and 100 triples before he even turns 28?

Yeah, actually, people who pay attention to baseball, particularly fantasy players. People that steal bases are widely pursued in the fantasy game, and he hits for average and even a bit of power too. It also makes sense that a guy who starts in the major leagues really young is going to have higher totals in his counting stats, and that young players will improve until their prime.

Yeah, didn't think so (outside of those 29 general managers who would love
to trade for him). Well, we sure did blow his cover, didn't we?

ESPN - If you're dumber than we are, it's news to you.

No. 7 -- Placido Polanco

Polanco and his double-play partner in Detroit, Carlos Guillen, probably both should have made this team. But if I'd included everybody who deserved to make it, we would've blown a hole in cyberspace.

If by “blown a hole in cyberspace” you mean “pick someone who’s a much better baseball player” you would be correct.

So why Polanco? Because, when I was mulling over this list and brought up Polanco's name, one scout's instant reply was: "He should be your captain."

This is why you drive me insane. You go by scouts’ OPINIONS to determine who is underrated. DON’T YOU SEE HOW STUPID THIS IS?!

Players like Placido Polanco operate so far below the radar screen, you need a submarine to keep track of them. But since he arrived in Detroit on June 10, 2005, and got his chance to play every day, he has struck out less (only 49 times) than any player in baseball who has been to the plate as often as he has. And the only AL players with higher batting averages than his (.317) since then are Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Vladimir Guerrero. Ever heard of them?

Yes, but let’s see what else they do with those batting averages, with the magical EQA stat, and for simplicity’s sake I’ll just pull down 2006 numbers.

Jeter: .343 BA, .308 EqA
Mauer: .347 BA, .314 EqA
Martinez: .316 BA, .293 EQA
Vlad: .329 BA, .306 EqA
Polanco: .295 BA, .234 EqA

This rather clearly shows that Placido Polanco was not nearly as good as the other 4 guys listed there. Just like Juan Pierre isn’t as good as Albert Pujols. Striking out less means little, except that your batting average can rise a little bit because you have more balls in play.

The best way to describe Polanco, though, isn't with any number. It's with that word, "winner." He's one of those "glue" players. He glues your team together with all those little things he does. And the 2006-07 Tigers are a walking testimonial to that. Then again, so is his inclusion on this prestigious list.

The best way to describe that last paragraph, though, isn’t with any assumption of intelligence on the part of the author. It’s with that word “retarded.” It’s one of those “empty” paragraphs. Doing all the little things is nice, but they are just that, little things. Winning is all about scoring more runs than the other guy. The guys who do the big things are the guys that really get you there, anyway. Polanco did help by playing good defense at second base, which is important to a staff of pitchers that pitches to contact, but it's absolute BS that he's underrated, particularly as he's ahead of Brian Roberts in the all-star voting.

No. 8 -- Kevin Youkilis

When a guy has been a star in "Moneyball," and then becomes an everyday player
for the Red Sox, you wouldn't think it would even be possible for him to be a
candidate for an all-underrated anything team. So for Youkilis to make this
squad, it might have to rank as the greatest achievement in his whole career.

I’m not sure how much hype Moneyball is worth, but the Red Sox are a bunch of media whores.

But in case you haven't been paying attention, this fellow has turned into much more than just "The Greek God of Walks." The only AL first baseman outslugging him is Justin Morneau. Nobody beats him in OPS, batting average, runs scored or multihit games. And one AL executive wanted to make sure we noticed what an underrated defender he is -- so now that he mentions it, Youkilis hasn't made an error at first since last July.

His patience at the plate alone is a great asset – he could be quite useful still with just a .260 average or so if his OBP will end up at .360-.370. Nice that he hasn’t made an error, although it’s worth noting that he seems to get to balls pretty well too, thus a Rate2 of over 100. The problem with the other stuff you’re citing is that they’re statistics from May, which are useless. Wait until after you can drop your OPS by .100 in a week.

Nevertheless, he still gets overshadowed by just about every position player around him, and by half the other first basemen in the league. And you'd be amazed how often "overshadowed" translates to "underrated" when you're writing columns like this one.

True enough, but it’s not even the league – it’s his own team. In All-Star balloting, Youkilis is not even on the ballot, because David Ortiz goes in at first base in such situations. He also won’t get the RBI opportunities because he was the leadoff man (now he’s the 2 hitter behind Julio Lugo, who should be a 9 hitter for the Royals).

No. 9 -- Joe Nathan

What Johan Santana is to the front end of Twins games, Nathan is to the back end. Since the day he arrived in Minnesota in 2004, he's been kind of the Mariano Rivera of the Great Lakes. But has anybody caught on to that -- except the hitters?

Everyone who plays fantasy, especially people in a 5x5 Roto league, know that Nathan is really really good.

Nathan has converted 92 percent of his save opportunities (blowing just 11 saves in 143 chances). He has punched out nearly two hitters (301 altogether) for every one who has gotten a hit (155). And his WHIP (.97 baserunners per inning) beats any closer's in his league since then.

True enough. Wow, this guy is a hell of a lot better than Trevor Hoffman, and he doesn't have as many years going back to make himself look better. Maybe he should be moved up and Hoffman dropped.

I was tempted to put his side-wheeling set-up man, Pat Neshek, on this team instead. But Joe Nathan is one of the most unpublicized, unhittable, totally dependable closers on earth. And nobody knows it. But with any luck, they do now.

Yeah, people still think Trevor Hoffman is more overrated, like you, dumbass. Hoffman, who Superdumbass Phil Garner used over Billy Wagner in the allstar game because of his reputation, resulting in the NL losing the game. Gee, lefty who throws 100 or righty that throws 88?

No. 10 -- Travis Hafner

Hafner's Indians compadre, Grady Sizemore, would have been awarded this final roster spot if he hadn't fouled up his underratedness by making the cover of Sports Illustrated. And even Hafner was a borderline call, just because his nickname(Pronk) has gotten so much attention.

Borderline? Getting attention does not make you overrated, it’s how good people perceive you to be. You’re a retard, Jayson Stark.

Yeah, America has heard of him. Yeah, America knows he can thump a little. But most of America still hasn't comprehended how good he is. Heck, I rated him the third-most underrated DH of all time in the book.

Um, ok.

Who owns the best on-base percentage (.420) and OPS (1.019) in the whole American League since 2004? The Pronkster. Who's the only hitter besides Albert Pujols to have a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage and 100 RBIs in each of the last three seasons? The Pronkster.

Yeah, he’s had the highest OPS+ in the AL the last few years running. Turns out he’s really good.

So what am I saying? That this fellow is a masher in the same stratosphere as Pujols, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero and Manny Ramirez. Except they hog all the "SportsCenter" time, while Hafner just monopolizes the All-Nickname Team. And that, ladies and gentlemen, may be the ultimate prescription for underratedness.

Yes, so that’s why he’s freaking 10th on this list? That’s reason to put this guy on the top! The
Dude also has never been named to an All-Star team. EVER!

As of today, suggested all-star ballots

Now what makes an all-star? It seems that each year, it should reward those who are doing well, although it's really a popularity contest. Nonetheless, let's see what this would look like if it were for those who did well. The fans get to vote, and that impacts which position players start.

All-OBP TEAMS
To the highest OBP at each position:
NL
2 - Russell Martin (.386)
3 - Todd Helton (.460)
4 - Kelly Johnson (.392)
5 - Chipper Jones (.392) - it should be noted that Mark Ellis and Chad Tracy are higher here, but neither have played as much, although it's borderline whether Chipper qualifies
6 - Jose Reyes (.398)
7 - Barry Bonds (.485)
8 - Carlos Beltran (.390)
9 - Brad Hawpe (.411)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.412)
3 - Jim Thome (.470) - although he's not on the ballot due to Konerko. Also deserving the ballot but not on is Kevin Youkilis
4 - Brian Roberts (.421)
5 - Mike Lowell (.391) - would be Iwamura but for injury
6 - Derek Jeter (.399)
7 - Nick Swisher (.425)
8 - Reggie Willits (.419)
9 - Vladimir Guerrero (.460)

The ALL-SB team
no regard to CS
NL
2 - Martin (8)
3 - Jeff Conine and Lance Berkman (3)
4 - Kaz Matsui and Brandon Phillips (9)
5 - David Wright (11)
6 - Jose Reyes (30)
7 - Alfonso Soriano (8)
8 - Juan Pierre (18)
9 - Shane Victorino (16)

AL
2 - Mike Napoli (4)
3 - Gary Sheffield (7)
4 - Brian Roberts (19)
5 - Nick Punto (11)
6 - Julio Lugo (17)
7 - Carl Crawford (12)
8 - Grady Sizemore (17)
9 - Bobby Abreu (8)

The All-HR team
NL
2 - Russell Martin and Michael Barrett (7)
3 - Prince Fielder (20)
4 - Dan Uggla (12)
5 - Aramis Ramirez (13)
6 - JJ Hardy (16)
7 - Adam Dunn (14)
8 - Eric Byrnes (9)
9 - Ken Griffey Jr (12)

AL
2 - Victor Martinez (12)
3 - Justin Morneau (14)
4 - Ian Kinsler (10)
5 - Alex Rodriguez (20)
6 - Jhonny Peralta (11)
7 - Craig Monroe (9)
8 - Torii Hunter (12)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (13)

The All-AVG team
NL
2 - Bengie Molina (.320)
3 - Derrek Lee (.357)
4 - Chase Utley (.304)
5 - Miguel Cabrera (.319)
6 - Edgar Renteria (.335)
7 - Matt Holiday (.345)
8 - Willy Tavares (.327)
9 - Tony Gwynn Jr (.320)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.360)
3 - Kevin Youkilis (.346)
4 - Luis Castillo (.337)
5 - Mike Lowell (.332)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (.329)
7 - Carl Crawford (.295)
8 - Ichiro Suzuki (.333)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (.362)

Me vs Stark on "Overrated"

Let us begin with Stark’s description, sparsing out a couple paragraphs that are irrelevant:

Overratedness -- like underratedness -- is all relative, remember. It's about perception. It's about illusion. It's about myths. It's about assumptions we tend to make about all kinds of players -- assumptions that sometimes turn out not to match up real well with a condition best described as "reality."

Sounds good so far; in fact, I think I’ll hold on to this part for later.

So the question I kept aspiring to answer as I wrote my book -- and as I wrote this companion column -- was this:

How does the perception of this player match up with the kind of player he really is (or was)?

I think there’s a difference between over/under-rating and completely misperceiving a player. For example, calling Juan Pierre a good leadoff man when he’s usually in the running for the league lead in outs understands the kind of player he is, but gives him too much credit.

Oh. And one more thing we need to get straight before you start typing those "are-you-some-kind-of-knucklehead" e-mails: I'm really not the Ultimate Czar of Overratedness and Underratedness. I'm just the guy who wrote the book.

NO! I thought you ESPN guys knew everything!

Your opinion is as good as mine. Maybe not as exhaustively researched. But you sure have a right to it. So I don't pretend to settle these debates. I just start them. Simply providing a valuable public service by allowing you, the American sports fan, to do what you enjoy most about sports…

I may not have interviewed as many scouts as you have, probably because I don’t have the media credentials you do, but you’re right, this is essentially the starting point of a debate. Not really what analysis is supposed to do, but it’s a good way to pimp your book.

OK, here they come -- the 10 most overrated active players in baseball. Some of these players made it into my book. Some didn't. On the other hand, some guys who were in the book didn't make this list. The difference? The book was mostly about assessing careers. This column is more about where these players stand on the illusion/reality meter right now. Got that? All righty then, here we go:

Does this mean you’re going to make judgements based on small sample sizes? Or are you going to just say that you’re only looking at active major leaguers to see who’s overrated?

Now let’s see what he actually says:

No. 1 -- Barry Zito

As I said in the book, "overpaid" isn't always the same thing as "overrated." But it definitely works in Zito's case.

Please don’t refer to your book. Try to make your article explain itself on its own.

Not that it's some kind of disgrace for any team to say it employs this guy. Never misses a start. Logs those innings. Snaps off those picturesque curveballs. Leads the league in likability. And we admire him for all of those qualities.

Yes he does. Zito is a good pitcher with cool looking stuff. And the fact of the matter is that pitchers that give you 220 innings are really quite valuable, because that means fewer oppurtunities to take advantage of the bad part of your bullpen. Starters that go deep into games are important to have.

But should he really be the proud owner of the most humongous pitching contract in history (seven years, $126 million)? For all those who think that answer is yes, better peruse these facts first:

Zito for $126 Million is not nearly as bad as Kevin Brown for $105 million. Zito will be 34 at the end of his deal, while Brown was 34 when he signed his deal. But as we all know, the market sets the prices for the players, and the degree to which a GM is desperate enough to possibly overpay someone will affect where he goes. That's not to say Zito isn't overpaid, but his durability does make his contract more bearable. Zambrano will get more money next year anyway.

Since his Cy Young season in 2002 (23-5, 2.75 ERA), Zito has a higher ERA than Carl Pavano, a lower strikeout rate than Mark Redman and a lousier WHIP than Odalis Perez. And his current 32-30 strikeout-walk ratio (143rd among the 155 starting pitchers with at least 20 innings this year) tells you he now does more nibbling than chef Paul Prudhomme. So why is this man making $18 million a year again?

Answer this one by one.
1) This is true, but is very misleading, particularly because the two seasons where Pavano had a number of starts in double digits, he was pitching in the NATIONAL LEAGUE in Dolphin Stadium. Dolphin Stadium has always been a pitcher’s park, but the Oakland Coliseum played like a hitters park in 2004. A good way to control for this is a stat called ERA +, and there you see that Zito’s has always been over 100, which is good; during his one off-year it got up to 4.48, but the adjusted league average was 4.68. Pavano had one year with an ERA + over 100, and his poor performance with the Yankees doesn’t factor in since he’s only started 19 games for them, but his ERA was in about the 4.77 range last year, a much more useful comparison.
2) This is false. From 2003-2007, Zito has pitched 955.3 innings and struck out 653, making his K/9 6.15, while Redman struck out 443 over 748.7 innings, making for a K/9 of 5.33.
3) Now this is true and quite interesting. Perez had an all-star season in 2002 and beat Zito in WHIP that year too. Part of that is because of the league differences, but up through 2005, Odalis might have possibly looked preferable, particularly if he had run support (which he didn’t). Of course, Perez also clearly had some luck going for him, as he had a lower rate of hits in those years where he had a low ERA. Now he’s become hittable, and his WHIP has gone way up. And for what it’s worth, Zito has a much stronger mentality that Perez, and was able to get out of those jams much easier.

Overrated? I would agree he is at least to some extent, but it's only his contract that could put him at the top.

Now, we move onto:
No. 2 -- J.D. Drew

Nobody denies that Drew has massive talent oozing out of his eyebrows. You can tell because he entered this season as one of only 13 active players with a career slugging percentage over .500 and an on-base percentage over .390.

Yep, he’s pretty good.

But now the bad news: Those other dozen players have made a combined 70 All-Star teams (and all have made at least two apiece). And Drew has made, well, zero.

Are you retarded? If anything, All-Star appearances are a measure of perception. Fans vote for all-stars! If a player is that good, but hasn’t made an all-star team, doesn’t that suggest he’s underrated?! If the All-Star game was objective and smart, maybe, but there’s no way in hell that AJ Pierzynski is better than Pronk.

It sure is funny how all that talent has added up to just one 30-homer season, only one 100-RBI season, a .180 lifetime average in seven postseason series, no All-Star at-bats, nearly 400 games missed with a massive assortment of injuries and a $14 million a year paycheck. Let's just say this guy is realllly fortunate the Red Sox's great start has obscured his messy .169 average since April 21 -- because so far, the occupants of Fenway have been shockingly patient with him.

WRONG! Lifetime .180 average in 5 division series! He’s actually a lifetime .233 hitter in 7 postseason series. That still sucks, but don’t you have an editor? But that’s a terrible point because it’s basically a month’s worth of playing. Besides, for that matter, Derek Jeter hit .168 in 108 PA in April 2004, so don’t give me small sample things.

I already told you that allstar games don’t mean anything. We know that, and the “this time it counts” thing is a bunch of bull. The lack of 30 homer seasons was due to health concerns, sure, but don’t correlate a player’s performance with RBI. Derek Jeter only had 100 RBI in one season. Drew might be overpaid, but you said overpaid doesn’t necessarily mean overrated. And we know the Red Sox are fair-weather fans, but do you really think they’d look at a date as arbitrary as April 21 to start tracking his performance? The reason you picked it was that he hit .375/.456/.479 up until that point. If you have to manipulate facts to agree with what you say, then you’re probably not a reliable source.

3) Andruw Jones
I'm not going to devote a lot of space in this column to Jones.

I’m not going to devote a lot of space to discuss what you said, because JC Bradbury said it better at Sabernomics.

No. 4 -- Juan Pierre

Speed guys aren't automatically overrated. (See Reyes, Jose for more details.) But for years now, we've been getting way too worked up about players whose mere ability to bring their legs with them to first base can make a pitcher want to call his therapist between pitches. And that brings us to Pierre, a fellow so likable, it pains me to put him on this list. How can you not like a guy who loves baseball so much, he beats the grounds crew to the ballpark?

Well, ok, I’m gonna agree with you that Pierre is overrated offensively, even though he put on a hell of a show for me when I was there.

But I've been listening to GMs (mostly American League GMs) gripe for so long that Pierre is as overrated as any player in baseball, I'm finally ready to concede.

Wait a minute, you’re going to base who’s overrated on what other people say? Can you think of why this is stupid?

It was easier to argue the other side in 2003, the year Pierre and the Marlins won the World Series. That year, Pierre walked 55 times, struck out only 35 times, got 204 hits, reached base more than any leadoff man in baseball and led the league in steals.

So every leadoff man sucked in 2003. None of the other info in that paragraph means a whole lot of anything to me.

But leadoff hitters with .303 on-base percentages, who are on pace to walk 31 times in 748 trips to the plate -- i.e., the Juan Pierre presently playing out the first season of his five-year, $44 million contract with the Dodgers -- they're overrated. When Pierre reaches first in the late innings of a close game, he's still a game-changer. But think how much more often he would reach first if he actually walked three times a week instead of once.

Don’t give me on pace, because that always changes. And of course, he needs to get on base more to be effective. He is overrated, but not because someone told you he is.

No. 5 -- Bobby Abreu

Boy, do people love arguing about this fellow. Who can blame them?

The folks who only peruse Abreu's numbers don't just wonder what he's doing on this list.

They wonder when he's getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. How multitalented is Bobby Abreu? Well, he does happen to be the only active player with a .300 career batting average, a .400 on-base percentage, 200 homers and 250 stolen bases. And his .909 career OPS tops the OPS of Sammy Sosa, Chase Utley, Derrek Lee and many, many, many other famed batsmiths out there.

Those are very good numbers.

But there sure are a lot of people who watched him in Philadelphia who think Abreu is the poster boy for an unquantifiable division of the All-Overrated Team -- players who mysteriously seem to be less than the sum of their spectacular numbers.

When people battle me on this guy, I always sum it up this way: As great as Bobby Abreu can be, he lacks that all-important Derek Jeter gene. There is no voice in his head, screaming: "This ball has to be caught." Or: "That runner on third has to be driven in." In Philadelphia, where he was the centerpiece of the franchise, that one flaw showed up way too glaringly. Now, in New York, as the Yankees flounder, they're getting aggravated over the same stuff. Funny how that happens.

No, that actually sounds more like he’s underrated, because while reliable numbers suggest he’s good, people doubt it. In fact, some idiots actually suggested the Phillies were a better team without him. Your methodology is to suggest that the true value of a player is not in his numbers, but what people think of him. You probably tell your kids to always give into peer pressure, all the time. But seriously, do you actually buy this crap? This ball has to be caught – sure, I can understand not playing hard enough to do that. But that runner on third has to be driven in? I don’t care where you are, but particularly if you’re in the middle of the lineup, a walk is much better than a sac fly, because then you didn’t lose an out, and Arod or Ryan Howard, as the case may be, can hit a 3 run bomb.

No. 6 -- Brian Giles

Remember back when Giles was a perennial 37-homer, 100-RBI, .600-slugging walk machine in Pittsburgh? What happened to that Brian Giles?

He moved from PNC park to PETCO park. PETCO is an enormous pitchers park with a park factor in the low 90s, which means it’s a very strong pitchers park. If you actually look at it, you see that there are no power alleys, and it’s farther to right-center than to center field – 400 feet is a long way for a ball to travel! If you look at PNC, though, you notice that it’s only 370 feet to right center, and the outfield doesn’t stick out funny in right like it does in PETCO. Further, NL Central pitching, even back in the early 2000s, wasn’t as good as 2004 and later NL west pitching, even if he is on Jake Peavy’s team. The Rockies have the humidor now, after all.

That one-time .600 slugging percentage didn't even make it to .400 last season --and has submerged below .350 in 2007. And that quick, 37-homer bat mostly ropes balls the other way now -- leaving us with a guy who has as many homers this year as Kip Wells (one).

Not to suggest that Brian Giles isn't still a really useful player. Still cranks out tough at-bats and walks 100 times. Still gaps 35-40 doubles a year. But there's a difference between a star player and a useful player. And it's a difference that can propel a guy right onto an overrated list just like this one.

It also makes sense that in a large ballpark, he’s not going to try to hit home runs nearly as often. And it also makes sense that he’s not as good at age 36 as he was 5 or 6 years ago. Even with that, park factors and all, it is clear that Giles has deteriorated from age and injury (only 134 games in 2003). As for overrated, maybe on account of the fact that he hits 3rd for the Padres, but other than Adrian Gonzalez, nobody else on that team should be anywhere near the 3 spot. He hasn’t been named an all-star since 2001, and he doesn’t really get that much press outside of the NL West.

No. 7 -- Alfonso Soriano

When I did a quick all-active overrated poll of my friends in the baseball business, I was amazed at how many of them nominated Soriano. But wait. Remember, back in the Barry Zito section of this extravaganza, where we kicked around the similarity between "overpaid" and "overrated"? Well, the size of Soriano's paycheck has obviously gotten some folks' attention, too.

Again, you’re doing polls to decide who’s overrated? You might not get why this is dumb, but here’s why. Polls are a measure of how people are rated. What you’re trying to do is to determine value objectively compared to subjective values tainted by biases, allegedly. What you’re actually doing, though is taking biased information and then using that as evidence. Bad bad bad.

Is he a man with a spectacular array of talents? Of course. But here's how he wound up in this group: Last season, when he was driving for those Super Lotto dollars in Washington, he was a 46-homer, 41-steal, 95-RBI, .911-OPS kind of dynamo. This season, his first in Chicago after cashing in, he's on pace for a 16-homer, 29-steal, 37-RBI, .800-OPS kind of year. And when you sign on the dotted line for eight years, $136 million, people tend to notice that. Why is that, anyhow?

Because you’re looking at a small sample size. If you want to, you can even say he was distracted by playing center field at first. Soriano is a good baseball player, and if you were going to overrate him, it would have been 2 years ago. Back then, he was a guy who didn’t get on base a whole lot and played really poorly at 2nd base, not just with errors but in general. Then they discovered that he’s got poor instincts but really good speed and a really good arm, so they moved him into the outfield, where that kind of stuff actually matters (what the hell do you need an strong arm at 2nd for anyway?). Now he’s gone from worst defensive 2B in the game to gold glove outfielder (see his Rate2), and note that he threw out 22 guys last year. The Cubs paid him too much money and he’s not going to look but so good at the end of that contract, but for the time being, he’s a very good baseball player.

No. 8 -- Richie Sexson

Sexson and Adam Dunn fit into a category of overratedness I figured I'd better get to in this column someplace: Guys We Love Because They Can Pulverize A Baseball About 900 Feet.

Yes that’s part of why we like them. Adam Dunn is awesome because he gets on base a lot and makes an absolute mockery of the statistic called batting average.

But Sexson wound up winning this not-so-coveted spot for a couple of reasons: (1) He's the 10th-highest-paid player in the whole sport this year (at $15.5 million). And (2) he's hitting only a buck-77, with more strikeouts (32) than hits and homers combined (30). At least Dunn -- while he hasn't done that Ichiro impression he was forecasting -- is at .258, with 11 homers and seven steals, in between the whiffs.

Strikeouts are not that much worse than other outs. While you lose the opportunity for advancing the runners, which doesn’t always benefit you or else people would sacrifice all the time, you also lose the chance for a double play, and you force the pitcher to throw at least 3 pitches, often many more. Strikeouts are one of the three true outcomes, and Dunn, much more than Sexson, is the Three True Outcome player. Adam Dunn strikes out a ton, but he’ll also walk a ton. And over half his hits have been for extra bases the last few years. Dunn was an all-star once, the only Red in 2002 (every team has to send someone). Sexson is overpaid, sure, but overrated seems a stretch.

No. 9 -- Bob Wickman

Whoa. Almost made it through this whole list without including a closer. Can't do that. If the save is the most overrated stat in baseball -- and it is -- then we need somebody on this team to embody that.

A good call here. Yay! Clap Clap.

A scout nominated Wickman, and I'm still not sure if he belongs. But what the heck. He, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano have gotten massive credit for the salvation of the Braves' bullpen. But like the hitters who make all those outs against Wickman, I often ask myself: How the heck does he do it?

Good question. Lets see how you master it.

His WHIP this year is a messy 1.73 baserunners per inning. He's averaging nearly 20 pitches an inning. And he has handed out as many walks as strikeouts (10). But he has walked that tightrope and survived to tell about it. The saves (6-for-8) are there. So life seems good. But it definitely isn't as serene up close as it is from afar. Does that make him overrated? Hey, it does now. He's in this column, right?

Come on. You’re using small sample size data again! You had a Danys Baez “breaking ball” smack down the middle of the plate, and you told Olmedo Saenz to bunt. So now I have to pick a reason why what you said was awful. Does that make him overrated? What makes him overrated is that the only reason people think he’s any good is that he’s gotten saves before and he has experience. Because throughout his career he's had bad peripherals, and because people don't pay attention to the number of blown saves he has. That he has 6 out of 8 saves does not mean the saves are there; 75% is a horrible horrible save percentage for your closer, as most of the blown saves on your team show up from your 7th and 8th inning relievers.

May(ish) Report

Compare to April

Since then, Tsao got hurt, Brazoban came and got hurt, Kuo came up, went down, switched back to the rotation, Tomko got sent to the bullpen, Hendrickson got sent to the bullpen, LaRoche came up, Abreu came up, Laroche was sent down, Valdez was DFA'd and outrighted to AAA.

Overall Record
33-23
Record with 3 or fewer runs scored:
8-15
Record with 3 or fewer runs allowed:
22-3
Record with 3 0r fewer runs scored by both teams:
8-3
Record in 1 run games
13-4
Extra Innings Record
3-0
Double digit run games, allowed:
4, 1
Shutouts
4
Times Shut out
2

Wins
Average Game Score: 59.8
Minimum: 35
Median: 62
Maximum: 81
Average IP: 6.20
Average Runs Scored: 5.73
Average Runs Allowed: 2.52

Losses
Average Game Score: 38.3
Minimum: 11
Median: 37
Maximum: 66
Average IP: 5.30
Average Runs Scored: 2.57
Average Runs Allowed: 6.04

Pitchers by Mean Game Score
Penny (6 starts): 57.0
Tomko (8 starts): 43.1
Wolf (6 starts): 54.8
Lowe (6 starts): 53.3
Kuo (1 start): 47
Hendrickson (8 starts): 45.1
Tomko (8 starts): 43.1
Schmidt (3 starts): 39.7

For defensive records up until this point, see here.

Here are the Rate2 and FP stats by position:

POS_Rate2_FP
1 - 107 - .981
2 - 109 - .989
3 - 90 - .992
4 - 86 - .966
5 - 93 - .950
6 - 113 - .969
7 - 91 - .988
8 - 99 - .986
9 - 96 - .965