Thursday, August 14, 2008

Jayson Stark on Manny

The accusations against Ramirez are that he dogged it during July before the trade, sinking his value. He must have been really awful right?

Yeah, .340/.447/.627 awful.

But that's the whole month; what about from the all-star break to the trade?

He hit .351/.467/.622.

He was actually a little better for that part of July.

Now let's read what Jayson Stark wrote.

For a man who decided his personal net worth was more important than an entire franchise and all the people who played with him, covered for him, depended on him?

Sheez. How sad is that?

"It really bothers me," one GM said this week of the Manny-mania lovefest that has unfolded in L.A. "What he did in Boston was criminal. Now he goes there, and everything's OK? No, sir. It doesn't change the fact that how he got there was criminal."


Remember, .351/.467/.622 is criminal. You want my guess as to which GM said that? Brian Cashman. Let's remember that Ramirez has made trade requests every year since 2004. Let's also remember that his performance in Boston was still quite good and useful.
OK, here's why you should care: Because this could easily morph into a giant problem for every franchise; for the entire sport, in fact.

If Manny Ramirez wanders into the free-agent market this winter and gets anything close to the four years and $100 million he believes he'll get, think about the message that would send, the precedent that would set.

First of all, does it piss anyone else off when MLB deemed synonymous with the entire sport of baseball? There are other levels, other leagues, other countries which play, and Japan won the WBC.

Secondly, if Manny Ramirez gets a 4 year $100m deal, I'll laugh. Because that would mean someone would take a chance on him being $25 million good at age 40, when we could expect a .295/.385/.455 line. Given that there's still a reasonable chance that he could have some more injuries (which were actually not all faked). On the line about Ramirez making up injuries, though, the Dodgers do that all the time with their bad players. The most recent example being Andruw Jones:

TORRE SAID there's some thought of putting AndruwJones on the disabled list to make room for the return of Nomar Garciaparra. "That knee is still sore," Torre said of Jones. "We'll see what the doctor has to say."

Ten minutes later Jones was spotted in center field trying to catch a fly ball -- hurdling the 3 1/2 -foot white fence used to hold back fans before the game, and looking like an Olympic hopeful.


Besides, the Dodgers would only accuse their young players of faking injury. Like Tony Abreu. Who really was seriously injured, and still is. Maybe Manny and LA are a good match.

But seriously, if you want to pander to Red Sox fans, that's one thing, but let's face it, Manny is a good player, and all three of these teams had good reasons to make the move. LaRoche wasn't getting playing time in LA and Pittsburgh needed a 3B. Bay is not only a good hitter but also a good defender, and is signed to a nice cheap contract; not a bad haul. Manny is a very very good hitter. It worked out all around, and Pittsburgh got a few other players too.

Infield Options 2008

The Dodgers have one sure bet for the infield in 2008: James Loney. Beyond him, much is up in the air.

Second Base
Free Agents: Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Ray Durham
In House: Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young

As it is, Ellis is the leading candidate now for a free agent 2B signing because of Orlando Hudson's season-ending injury. Picking up Hudson would be a risky move - you don't know what he's going to do offensively. Felipe Lopez would be the low buy, and Ray Durham is an old dude who can't play defense, but at least he can get on base.

DeWitt is probably still a contender for the third base job, but don't forget Delwyn Young. Larry Bowa thinks he can play second, so that can't be ruled out yet.

Shortstop
Free Agents: Rafael Furcal, Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria
In House: Chin-Lung Hu, Russell Martin

Let's throw this out there now: Martin is not moving from behind the plate unless Saltalamacchia, etc falls in the Dodgers lap. If they were willing to trade Lowe at the deadline, this might be feasible, but now, not so much.

Furcal is an injury question. After being out almost all season and having an abysmal year at the plate (although being amazing when healthy), he's likely to take a 1 year deal. Provided he's happy in LA, I can see him staying, so it would appear he's most likely to remain a Dodger. The real question is who plays in September - if it's Furcal, then it's likely he comes back. If Furcal is hurt and Hu gets a chance and does well, Furcal will get offered arbitration so LA gets draft picks, and Hu becomes the starting shortstop. Neither other free agent option looks good, unless Hu is particularly bad in September and Furcal doesn't look like he'll be healthy soon.

Third Base
Free agents: Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Mark Teixiera*,
In House: Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin
Trade: Adrian Beltre

I mention Beltre because it seems like a DePo correction that he could enjoy, and it is true that Beltre is a good defensive 3B as well as a decent hitter. I don't see LA giving up players for him for just a year, though, but that could all depend on what Colletti is thinking on a particular day. Nomar keeps getting hurt, but it looks like he can still hit some, so he remains a viable option at third. Blake is gone. Teixiera has played 15 games at the major league level at third base, the position where he was originally drafted. He's a very good defensive first baseman, and I would be surprised if he switched back. DeWitt seems like he'll get a starting job next year, somehow, but I'm not sure where; third would seem likely.

Most Likely
Loney
DeWitt
Furcal
Nomar

This would be the most status quo of the lineups, and would make sense with DeWitt playing 2nd in Vegas, even with LaRoche gone. The goal with Furcal would be to get him back at a discount for one year, but it may only be down to about $8 million. Nomar will probably re-sign for less than he's making now, but I would guess a 2 year $12 million deal.

Loney
DeWitt
Guzman
Nomar

As much as I don't want Christian Guzman and I know Vin Scully likes saying "O-Dog," Torre and co like DeWitt more than Hu, so I'd expect to see Nomar at third and DeWitt at 2nd, and a stopgap SS in the meantime, if Fucal doesn't stay. I really don't see LA suddenly favoring Hu after letting Angel Berroa have a job for so long, unless Logan White is the new GM.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Manny?

Well we got Manny Ramirez, but it did cost us Andy LaRoche.

One thing though: Manny says he wants to stay in LA. He likes the relaxed atmosphere, being loved by fans, but having his peace off the field. At 35 he wouldn't get a 4 or 5 year contract, but one could see a 3 year deal easily to keep him here. McCourt is probably excited enough to green light Colletti to extend him, even with agent Boras.

So what does that mean?

If we keep Manny, we'll need to retain Furcal or pay for a 3B/2B. Our other viable choice would be Orlando Hudson. We could also expect about a .700 OPS from each of those players. Tony Abreu presumably would still have healthy issues.

We would also want as many homegrown options as possible. Which could mean, surprise, DY plays second. Remember also that Xavier Paul will be ready soon, so he or Ethier could be traded. It could also mean we'd find a way to accept Jones and or Pierre as a sunk cost and then just try to dump them or trade them off and pay only most of their salary.

Lineup in 2009

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
DeWitt
Hu

This actually doesn't look bad, although it does depend a good bit on Furcal's health. Otherwise, we'll see:

Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Loney
Abreu/DY
DeWitt
Hu

So Furcal looks like a good pickup. If no Manny or Furcal, then we'll probably get Sabathia or Sheets, which gives us this rotation:

Sabathia
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw

which is just plain sick, and would let me feel better about the lineup.