On the Usefullness of the Mitchell Report

The Mitchell Report contains information about players using steroids, HGH, etc. Here is the run-down of all former Dodgers (major league team only), and the quality of their evidence:



Kevin Brown: Radomski says he supplied Brown with HGH and steroids several times, and even produced a copy of a USPS Express Mail package. Enough to arouse suspicion.

Chris Donnels: Admitted to using steroids, HGH, and other drugs. Check included as well. Suspicious.

Eric Gagne: Mentions LoDuca bought him some the first time and later Gagne bought some himself. Includes USPS Express Mail receipt. Suspicious.

Matt Herges: Referred by LoDuca, wrote "Thanks!" in memo line of check. Probably true.

Phil Hiatt: Bought steroids and HGH, no checks or USPS receipts. Not compelling enough.

Darren Holmes: Told reporters he ordered HGH but never used it. Cut and dry.

Todd Hundley: Radomski sold him stuff and knew him since 1988. Donnels said he talked to him about steroids and Radomski when on the Dodgers too. Prett solid testimony, although physical evidence would be nice.

Mike Judd: Dodgers AAA strength and conditioning guy observed Judd and LoDuca inject each other with steroids. Compelling.

Paul Lo Duca: Letters to Radomski, records, 3 checks in the appendix, and mentions of referrals and injections. HGH and Steroids. A whole lot of stuff on this guy, most likely to go to jail (or at least deserve to).

Adam Riggs: Used HGH & Steroids. Referred by LoDuca. Moneygram and checks. Strong evidence.

F.P. Santangelo: Used HGH & Steroids. Checks. Referred Piatt. Doesn't look good.

Gary Sheffield: Use the cream on his knees, referred to by Bonds, Greg Anderson. Admitted to it, sort of.

Ismael Valdez: Reported by SF Chronicle to have bought HGH. Not enough to go on, but he sucks.

Todd Williams: Radomski said he sold him steroids once in 2001. Not too compelling, but suspicious.

It is particularly interesting how few sources provided so much information, which would lead one to believe that there is definitely more to be found. However, one has to wonder why so much inconsistency for receipt copies, checks, etc for some players over others.

Dodgers Year in Review 2007 - Pitching

For the starting rotation, you can categorize the pitchers in the following (ERA for that particular role):

Good Starters (518.3 IP, 85 GS)
Brad Penny (3.03 ERA) - helped most by allowing very few home runs (only 9), although his other peripheral stats (135K and 73BB in 208 IP) don't shine that much. Penny may very well regress a bit next year, but he has been more efficient, which may help that homer rate.
Derek Lowe (3.90 ERA)- tough luck year for Lowe, who went 12-14 with a 3.88 ERA, a weird record for a 118 ERA+. Lowe's sinker was sinking, his k rate was decent too. The big story was that he got injured for the first time in his career this year, and he might be getting a bit old.
Chad Billingsley (3.38 ERA) - in his age 22 season, Billingsley put up a 138 ERA+ in 147 innings. His three true outcome numbers all seemed to worsen a bit when he was put in the starter role, although his K rate remained good, and could reasonably be expected to improve in 2008.

Banged-up Starters (156.3 IP, 30 GS)
Jason Schmidt (6.31 ERA) - shoulder problems ended his season early, and affected his performance horribly. It is unclear what he will do in 2008.
Hong-Chi Kuo (6.75 ERA) - or Guo, to some people. Flashes of brilliance and a really awesome bat flip cannot change the fact that this Taiwanese lefthander is a constant injury risk with a history of elbow problems.
Randy Wolf (4.73 ERA) - sadly he came back from injury only to be injured again. When he was starting, though, he was generally good until he started to get hurt, as one can ascertain from his 94K in 102 IP. Nice curve, though.

Forgettable (242.3 IP, 47 GS)
Brett Tomko (5.56 ERA) - finally got released. He started 15 games for the Dodgers, and posted a 79 ERA+. Good riddance, although we'll miss his paintings.
Mark Hendrickson (6.13 ERA) - slightly better than Tomko. And taller. And left handed. But still, Hendrickson sucked and started 15 games.
Esteban Loaiza (8.34 ERA) - we bail out Billy Beane and pick him up off waivers. He really sucked and should go to the bullpen if he's even on the team. Big waste of money by Ned.
David Wells (5.12 ERA) - fat fat fatty. Nothing special as a pitcher, but made us all laugh by bunting his way on base.
Eric Stults (5.68 ERA) - an option down in AAA, but not one you would really depend on regularly.

Essentially, the Dodgers had 3 good starters and a lot of bad ones. If Kuroda can put up at least a 4.5 ERA and Schmidt can make 20 healthy starts, the rotation should be quite solid.

Bullpen

Didn't know you were here
Derek Lowe um yeah, he's a starter
Yhency Brazoban - the new dreifort
Hong-Chi Kuo - he should be a starter, when he's healthy
Eric Hull - not bad in a brief stint
Jon Meloan - didn't impress in the majors in a brief stint, but he's still young
Eric Stults - not really impressive here, but didn't do much out of the pen

Blah
Brett Tomko - Tomko sucked out of the pen too. He was decent in this role last year, but his failure here forced Colletti to release him.
Roberto Hernandez - what the hell? The dude is 40 and bad.

A List
Saito - awesome, awesome, awesome. Will make you believe closers matter again.
Broxton - A great pitcher at the back of the pen, and will be a great closer himself someday.
Billingsley - earned a promotion by being lights out in the pen

A-/B+ List
Beimel - Beimel continued to be a great piece to have in the bullpen, useful against lefthanders or righthanders, as a lefty relief pitcher should be.
Proctor - not bad, I'll admit. While I don't think he was worth Betemit, he still makes the bullpen a lot deeper.
Hendrickson - surprisingly effective as a reliever, including a K/BB over 4. As long as he doesn't insist on starting, he should be good.
Seanez - a surprise this year, pitching quite effectively at age 38 or so.
Houlton - not bad, but don't expect him to be a regular reliever.
Tsao - were it not for the injury, would be in the A list. Retired 24 straight batters or something and was phenomenal to start the season.

T.O. Makes excuses for his teammate

I'm not a general sports blogger, but this was just funny.

The headline was probably the real news here in this story:

IRVING, Texas (AP) - sportsminute Terrell Owens has a message for Jessica Simpson: Stay away. The 27- year-old singer-actress has become Public Enemy No. 1 among Dallas Cowboys fans because of a link being made between her appearance at Sunday's game and the poor performance of her new boyfriend, quarterback Tony Romo.

Could there possibly be another explanation?

The Cowboys lost 10-6 to the Philadelphia Eagles and Romo had what was statistically the worst game of his career, all while Simpson sat in a luxury box wearing a pink No. 9 jersey she proudly showed off for television cameras.

The problem for her is, Romo's previous worst game came last December at home to the Eagles when then-girlfriend Carrie Underwood was in attendance.

Way to go, AP, and Drudge for linking to this.

First Glance at the Mitchell Report

When you consider how many steroid users in baseball got their stuff from Kirk Radomski alone, it becomes apparent that this is but the tip of the iceberg. It's also quite staggering to see how many people left such and obvious paper trail - gives the impression that players weren't that embarrassed to be steroid users. Or that baseball players are the biggest idiots in the world - Larry Bigbie wrote "supplements" on the subject line of a check. What a moron.

The evidence itself ranges from hearsay to damning.

Clemens stands out in particular because his section is so long. Most damning is that he was particularly close to Brian McNamee, even convincing the Yankees to hire him in 2000. McNamee's story is that he stuck a needle in Clemens' butt multiple times to give him steroids.

The inclusion of checks, priority mail packing slips, etc, shows how much of a paper trail Radomski kept. Do all steroids dealers keep such extensive records? Seemingly, Radomski felt if he had to go down, he'd take everyone else down with him.

Setting up Shop

If you don't know who I am and you're here, it probably means you found the link on my Jason Schmidt page. Welcome.

Basically, I'm a senior at George Mason University, yet I have an irrational interest in the Dodgers. From what I can tell, it's a combination of playing for a YMCA-league t-ball team called the Dodgers when I was in first grade and video games with Mike Piazza. My parents are both Braves fans, which makes sense because we have cable tv and thus PBS, and I grew up in Richmond, where the Braves AAA team plays.

I tried to polish a couple things up here before getting actual traffic, and the archives should give you something to waste time with. I hope they don't drive you away. The ad box is new, but most of this has looked like this for a while. I'll try to update this at least a couple times a week, although a lot of this is on the basis of when there actually is content to talk about, but that's what the Mitchell Report is for (post coming after this has been the top post for a couple days).

Division of Labor

Now for those of you who know anything about sports, you know that ESPN is just plain stupid. I'm sorry, but it is. If you tune in to something like Baseball Tonight all you get is fodder for something like Fire Joe Morgan. But there is a puzzle here.

Anyone can have an opinion. But opinions are only relevant in discussing what is not already known to be fact. "The Dodgers did not hit many home runs this year" is not an opinion - they finished 15th in the NL. "The Dodgers had a bad year offensively" is an opinion, but it can be substantiated by the fact that they had a team OPS+ of 93, where 100 is average. "The Dodgers need to give up their best hitters for more pitching" is an opinion, and a very stupid one at that.

But I digress. Here's my old roommate on the subject:

If you read what Schreiber says about ESPN's coverage, it makes them look like a "worldwide leader" in sports, but little else. They lead the fray into a world of unsubstantiated reports, biased reporting by former athletes interviewing former teammates and players who played the same position (see: Irvin, Michael and Johnson, Keyshawn), and unseasoned reporters thrust into a position where they have to awkwardly negotiate their position as a former athlete and their current position as a journalist, which goes beyond ESPN (see: Barber, Tiki).

Apparently ESPN believes it needs not only frequent celebrity guests, but in fact needs celebrity hosts, not uncommon in sports. But ESPN was correct in stating their situation is not unique, but in fact the nature of 24 hour news, and that is the case for their shoddy news coverage, but reporters on Fox News and CNN are reporters, not ex-politicians. The creation of a larger opinion section for the 24 hour news networks seems to be the trend, because that's easier to use as filler.

But here's the problem - there are more useful opinions out there. Dodger Thoughts is a trillion times more useful than Bill Plaschke. Heck, I can even write a Bill Plaschke column (comment 226). Bloggers can also do research, cite facts and stats, and they are fact-checked by readers whom they are not too arrogant to ignore.

The mainstream media has advantages, just not what one would think. The old claim is it's professional, so it can screen writers for quality - a reasonably intelligent reader can screen for quality. More relevantly, the professional status means that reporters are paid to have time to devote to gathering facts, information and interviews. Reporters can ask experts for data and sources of data. Most significantly, reporters are most capable of unearthing new information credibly.

Bloggers pretty much have to cite reporters - often they just link to them and quote, if anything, only the most relevant parts - because not only do they have to satisfy the reporter that they're not plagarizing, but they have to satisfy their audience that they're not making stuff up. Bloggers have to have substatiated opinions - people are more skeptical of what other people have to say. Further, bloggers can use any hard data they see. Therefore, the most efficent division of labor would be for the mainstream media to do all the reporting and fact gathering and then for the bloggers to comment and analyze.

There are vast economic reasons you don't see this, though. If bloggers could summarize news stories just by citing newspapers and linking to them, how would newspapers make money? The best the newspapers would hope for would be increased readership, and they may limit how much of the article could actually be quoted on a blog. It would be a risky move, but a solidly journalistic news organization could prove to be the most linked to paper, and those who just want the whole story would go to that paper. As it is, this is the strength of the news business, and division of labor suggests you are better off specializing in your strength, even if you are better at commentary than bloggers (which these reporters are not).

O'Malley's Revolutionary Greed

But I'm a libertarian economist, so I think this is a good thing.

O'Malley moved the Dodgers West because he wanted a new stadium. What was wrong with Ebbetts, you might ask. Well, you can't fit anyone in it - it had about the seating capacity of Fenway Park, around 35,000 or so. The extra 21,000 seats in Dodger Stadium meant a lot, particularly for a team with a growing fan base that wanted its fans to actually get to see a game.
Ok, so greed probably isn't the right word with this example, but you can't say O'Malley wasn't the penny-pinching type. The story was the Dodgers didn't have names on the back of the uniforms until the mid 1970s so O'Malley could sell more programs, and he also didn't pay players for goodwill tours to Japan, and a dispute over that got Maury Wills traded. But the point is you can actually get tickets to a Dodger game, unlike a Red Sox game. And O'Malley even financed the park himself. But he moved west because the New York zoning nazi wanted the Dodgers to move to Queens. O'Malley said, hey, we're not the Brooklyn Dodgers anymore anyway, so why not be the Los Angeles Dodgers? Let's expand the league nationwide while we're at it.

But I'm happy he's in the hall of fame. Anyone in New York crying about this now is just plain weird. Especially with the internet - you can follow the team from the East Coast. You know, like I do.

Shut Up Plaschke

Seriously, the Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to a 2 year deal and Plaschke insists they keep Pierre now as a regular. But he's not joking.

The Jones signing was smart and efficient and will help folks -- including owner Frank McCourt -- forgive the terribly large contract and burden that Colletti placed last winter on Juan Pierre.

One mistake down, one to go.

Wait, what the hell? Did Plaschke just surprise me? I'm speechless! This actually would suggest the Juan Pierre signing was a complete and utter failure, and that Colletti has fixed a horrible mistake.

But that doesn't explain the rest of the article:

Now it's time to repent for the giant error that was Jason Schmidt.

Ha! I get it; Schmidt used to play for the Giants! That's so clever! So what should we do?

Colletti needs to use the outfield surplus created by the signing of Jones and do everything within his power to acquire a No. 1 starting pitcher.

Um, that means trading the good outfielders, who are about as good offensively as Jones.

When asked about his team's needs, has Joe Torre mentioned anything but pitching?

Joe Torre doesn't know who's on the goddamn roster. Hell, he probably has to ask what team he's managing every so often. Further, the Dodgers had a team ERA+ of 109 last year, which was a bit above average, and they had 3 good starters in Lowe, Penny and Billingsley. Penny with his sub-3 ERA* had a lot of people impressed, but then again, so did Jake Peavy. But Penny did finish 3rd in CY Young voting, if you think that matters. And Billingsley was superb, and he wasn't even in the rotation the whole year. Joe Torre said that because the Yankees always had problems with shitty pitching the last few years - they paid $10 million a year for Carl Pavano! Their bullpen had 2 good pitchers, and they traded one of them for Wilson Betemit. What Joe Torre doesnt' realize is that he now has a team with problems on offense, namely Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra, and last year, Rafael Furcal.

The Dodgers' field personnel love Baltimore's Erik Bedard, an aggressive hard thrower who was third in the American League in strikeouts and fourth in earned-run average.

He is a left-handed version of John Lackey, only five months younger.

No, because he's far more injury prone, and his walk rates were far too high until about the last year and a half to fully qualify him as an "ace."

Also still available is the pitcher everybody loves, Minnesota's Johan Santana, and the Dodgers could still apparently sneak in and acquire him.

The Twins got Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser for NATHAN PIERZYNSKI! HE ISN'T EVEN A GOOD BASEBALL PLAYER. FOR SANTANA, IT WOULD TAKE LIKE MARTIN, KEMP, BILLINGSLEY AND BROXTON!

Either pitcher would cost them Matt Kemp.

And like 9 other players too!

But either would put them in the playoffs. And, as Jose Lima would tell you, who knows what could happen then?

Yeah, you could be on a losing team because you traded away all your good players. And it would really suck if you failed - ask the Texas Rangers if trading for Carlos Lee was worth it. And there's more.

You say he won't be any better than the combination of Kemp and Andre Ethier? I say, in a post-steroid-era season in 2006, he hit 41 homers with 129 RBIs, so get real.

Ok. Let me humor you. I'll even compare 2006 for Jones to 2007 for Ethier and Kemp rather than 2007 for Jones. I'll even consider that RBIs matter. Kemp and Ethier combined for 23 HR and 106 RBI last year. If you pro-rated that for full seasons, though, say 550 AB each, and you combine for 35 HR and 158 RBI. Regardless of your HR to RBI conversion ratio, I'd say that's pretty good. But seriously, why do you have to compare Jones to a combination of these two, or even one of these two? Why not just put Ethier in left, Jones in Center, and Kemp in right? But Plaschke says this of Jones:

His position lets Juan Pierre become Juan Pierre

Someone who isn't good enough to be a starting centerfielder? Seriously, what is Plaschke saying here? How does getting displaced from his position put Juan Pierre in a position to succeed?

No, no, the Dodgers will not and should not trade the short-armed center fielder. Just because he was overpaid doesn't mean he lacked value. Did everybody somehow miss that he was second in the league in stolen bases and led the league in sacrifice bunts?

He had value as a bench player, but because he was overpaid meant that he was going to be used as a starter. Every day. By Ned's orders. And stolen bases are awesome for fantasy baseball, but in real baseball they don't matter as much, especially when you get caught. Pierre did steal successfully over 80% of the time, so on the whole his speed was a bit of an asset. But sacrifice bunts are what pitchers do on offense. Come on, that's nothing to be proud of - he got out on purpose more than anyone. What actually happened is that his speed has gotten worse and that's why he's no good for center anymore, and that's why his bunt hits percentage was down.

The Dodgers need to keep Pierre's speed and bunting ability at the top of the order. Goodness, it's one of the reasons Jones agreed to play here. But at least now, Pierre can move to a safer left field and be viewed for what he is -- a complementary player.

Yes, and he can complement the team very well as a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. But if Ethier and Kemp are better ballplayers, they should play ahead of him. End of story.

* - Penny actually had an ERA of 3.03 to end the year, but his ERA was under 3 for the better part of the season.

Yay

The Dodgers might not do anything stupid.

"There's potential for change, but as we look at the young players that we played a lot this past year, we're less likely to fill in [positions with veterans] as much as we have in the past and more likely we'll give the younger players a greater opportunity," Colletti said. "I'm curious to see how our young players, who really had a chance this past year to play full time, I'm curious to see what another year does."

Fan Bases and Winning Games

Seem like they're one and the same, right? If you win, people will come, right? Well yeah, but that's not the biggest reason.

Looking at the NL for the last 4 seasons, the biggest determinant of attendance was team payroll - if a team spent a certain amount of money, so many fans would come. Now, of course, this may actually be a faulty cause and effect; it might be that teams know their market and get what their attendance will afford. But still, take a look at this:

Regression Analysis: Att versus W, Pay
The regression equation is
Att = 199189 + 10498 W + 0.0222 Pay

Predictor - P
Constant - 0.608
W - 0.050
Pay - 0.000

S = 374825 R-Sq = 70.5% R-Sq(adj) = 69.5%

That is a very tidy regression. That is also a very low P-value for pay, indicating that we are very very sure that payroll affects attendance. Wins would appear to have some impact as well on atendance, but not entirely.

But this is more telling:

Regression Analysis: W versus Pay, RD
The regression equation is
W = 81.2 - 0.000000 Pay + 0.0969 RD

Predictor - P
Constant - 0.000
Pay - 0.975
RD - 0.000

S = 4.02786 R-Sq = 84.0% R-Sq(adj) = 83.5%

Taking into account the effect of payroll on run differential, there is some effect, so you are going to run into some multicollinearity, but still, the R-squared value is 20.7%.

It's really hard to define a model that actually tells you what you want to know, but my intuition seems to support the following: payroll is for putting fans in the seats, not winning ballgames. The Yankees have a $200,000,000 payroll, sure, but they're wasting money on guys like Carl Pavano in all that. Having good drafting and scouting helps. Being able to sign free agents is nice, but there are few free agents that are really worth what they might cost.

It is with that in mind that I ask whether one can really be sure if Matt Kemp is better than someone like Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones. He's certainly better than Juan Pierre.

2007 PrOPS

PrOPS estimates what players' batting lines should be based on batted ball types etc. Available at the Hardball Times, and developed by JC Bradbury.

Players with expected and actual lines:

Russell Martin .283/.367/.455 .293/.374/.469
James Loney .300/.350/.501 .331/.381/.538
Jeff Kent .288/.364/.478 .302/.375/.500
Nomar Garciaparra .286/.330/.403 .283/.328/.371
Rafael Furcal .278/.339/.376 .270/.335/.355
Andre Ethier .281/.350/.436 .284/.350/.452
Juan Pierre .293/.328/.358 .293/.331/.353
Luis Gonzalez .289/.368/.455 .278/.359/.433

Matt Kemp .261/.297/.430 .342/.373/.521
Andy LaRoche .257/.391/.363 .226/.365/.312
Delwyn Young .299/.332/.545 .382/.417/.647
Tony Abreu .267/.308/.366 .271/.309/.404
Chin-Lung Hu .261/.258/.527 .241/.241/.517

Glaring discrepencies:
Matt Kemp
Delywn Young
Andy LaRoche

LaRoche gets credit for his patience and PrOPS figures he should have hit the ball successfully more often given the batted ball types. Delwyn Young looks to be good, but not as much as he showed. Matt Kemp looks like he was the recipient of a ton of lucky singles. A ton. If this is accurate for predicting performance, it might not be a bad idea to trade Kemp with his value high, assuming of course he doesn't improve his patience or power or something like that.

Take A Look at this

Good Free Agents pre 2008
3b
A-Rod

cf
Andruw Jones
Torii Hunter
Aaron Rowand

dh
Barry Bonds

c
Michael Barrett
Jason Kendall

SP
Matt Clement

Good Free Agents pre 2009

first base
Mark Teixeira - 1B

second base
Orlando Hudson - 2B

outfielders
Pat Burrell - LF
Adam Dunn - LF
Bobby Abreu - RF
Vlad Guerrero - RF

closers
Jason Isringhausen - CL
Brad Lidge - CL
Joe Nathan - CL

starting pitchers
CC Sabathia - LHSP
Johan Santana - LHSP
Oliver Perez - LHSP
Mark Mulder - LHSP
Derek Lowe - RHSP
Greg Maddux - RHSP
Ben Sheets - RHSP

shortstops
Rafael Furcal

Good Free Agents pre 2010
1b
Nick Johnson
Adam LaRoche
Carlos Pena

2b
Placido Polanco
Brian Roberts
Freddy Sanchez

3b
Adrian Beltre
Chipper Jones
Miguel Cabrera

CF
Chone Figgins
Ryan Freel

corner OF
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Carl Crawford
Gary Sheffield
Jayson Werth

DH
Manny Ramirez

Starting Pitchers
Erik Bedard - LHSP
Dontrelle Willis - LHSP
Chris Capuano - LHSP
Brad Penny - RHSP
Jake Peavy - RHSP

Closers
JJ Putz -CL


Good Free Agents pre 2011
First base
Paul Konerko
Justin Morneau
Kevin Youkilis

third base
Wilson Betemit
Eric Chavez

catcher
Joe Mauer
Yadier Molina

Outfield
Eric Byrnes
Brad Hawpe
Alex Rios

Closers
BJ Ryan
Huston Street

shortstop
Derek Jeter

A smart GM would look at all the major league talent he has under control for this period of time, and check to see when would be the oppurtune time to deal and hold onto it. Nice to put out to look at.

Joe

Joe Torre is now the Dodger manager. Grady Little had enough of the season, so he just quit. Torre will probably not make but so much of a difference, but let's venture a guess.

Managing a pitching staff
Neither was known for trying to kill a starting pitcher. Torre had a reputation for picking favorite relievers, but Grady was picking that up with Broxton. To be fair, the Dodgers have a much deeper bullpen with Saito, Broxton, Proctor and Beimel all as capable relievers. Brazoban too, if he's ever healthy again. (If they give up on Yhency, though, a run at Gagne would be nice).

Managing a lineup
Tends to give players set roles, but this isn't bad. He liked Jeter in the 2 spot, which actually was wonderful - maybe he puts Martin there. Also not afraid to demote guys like Giambi, Damon, etc, although some utility players get a lot more credit than one might think. Making Abreu the utility man wouldn't be bad, though.

Handling the media
Torre is good for keeping people calm, although nobody in the LA media is like the NY media. Maybe Simers. On the other hand, Little wasn't too bad at this, and he was more interesting at times, often funny, and Torre may be more boring.

Clubhouse stuff
Apparently Torre has a bit more control, maybe because he's not such a joker.

Marginal at best, but probably not a bad move.

Year in Review, Hitters

Catcher
Russell Martin - 540 AB, .293/.374/.469, 19 HR, 21 SB-9 CS, 113 OPS+, .285 EqA, 8.0 Warp1
Mike Lieberthal - 77 AB, .234/.280/.260, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 39 OPS+, .181 EqA, -0.1 Warp1
Chad Moeller - 8 AB, .125/.222/.125, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, -8 OPS+, 0 Warp1

Martin is clearly awesome. Lieberthal is not worth paying a million dollars; might as well get the replacement level performance out of Moeller.


First Base
James Loney - 344 AB, .331/.381/.538, 15 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 131 OPS+, .302 EqA, 3.0 Warp1
Nomar Garciaparra - 431 AB, .283/.328/.371, 7 HR, 3-1 SB-CS, 78 OPS+, .242 EqA, 0.4 Warp1
Olmedo Saenz - 110 AB, .191/.295/.345, 4 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 63 OPS+, .227 EqA, -.2 Warp1
Mark Sweeney - 33 AB, .273/.294/.303, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 53 OPS+, .201 EqA, -.1 Warp1
Marlon Anderson - 26 AB, .231/.310/.231, 0 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 41 OPS+, .202 EqA, -.1 Warp1

Loney will be the full time first baseman, which will be a good thing. Olmedo and Sweeney should both be gone, and Nomar will have to prove his worth to get any playing time on the field. Or at least, he should. And Marlon Anderson's run must end, but it was nice knowing him.

Second Base
Jeff Kent - 494 AB, .302/.375/.500, 20 HR, 1-3 SB-CS, 121 OPS+, .291 EqA, 5.3 Warp1
Tony Abreu - 166 AB, .271/.309/.404, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 80 OPS+, .242 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Ramon Martinez - 129 AB, .194/.248/.225, 1 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 22 OPS+, .168 EqA, -0.5 Warp1
Wilson Valdez - 74 AB, .216/.263/.270, 0 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 36 OPS+, .182 EqA, 0.2 Warp1

Tony Abreu should be a backup 2b or late inning replacement for Kent. Even if he's only getting about 200 AB, he'd be a much more useful pinch hitter and part time player than Martinez or Valdez. Jeff Kent looks like he'll still be the best option at 2nd, provided he's not traded or retired, although his age is starting to catch up with him.

Third Base
Wilson Betemit - 156 AB, .231/.359/.474, 10 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 110 OPS+, .282 EqA, 1.3 Warp1
Andy La Roche - 93 AB, .223/.365/.312, 1 HR, 2-1 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 0.6 Warp1
Shea Hillenbrand - 70 AB, .243/.257/.343, 1 HR, 0-1 SB-CS, 51 OPS+, .199 EqA, 0.0 Warp1

WHY!!! WHY DID THEY HAVE TO TRADE BETEMIT?! And this is why LA is in the hunt for A-Rod. LaRoche, who's been having a hard time translating his power to the majors has shown great patience, but it is doubtful management will do the same with him. He's a better option now than Nomar, though. But Hillenbrand's presence on this list is the worst effect of the Betemit trade.

Shortstop
Raffy Furcal - 581 AB, .270/.333/.355, 6 HR, 25-6 SB-CS, 76 OPS+, .244 EqA, 5.0 Warp1
Chin-Lung Hu - 29 HR, .241/.241/.517, 2 HR, 0-0 SB-CS, 86 OPS+, .244 EqA, 0.3 Warp1

Even with his down year at the bat, Furcal is among the best defensive shortstops in the game. Hu looks quite promising though, which makes renewing Furcal unlikely.

Left Field
Luis Gonzalez - 464 AB, .278/.359/.433, 15 HR, 6-2 SB-CS, 101 OPS+, .271 EqA, 3.3 Warp1
Brady Clark - 58 AB, .224/.308/.293, 0 HR, 1-2 SB-CS, 55 OPS+, .206 EqA, -0.3 Warp1
Delwyn Young - 34 AB, .382/.417/.647, 2 HR, 1-0 SB-CS, 166 OPS+, .342 EqA, 0.5 Warp1

Young was a pleasant surprise in this category. Gonzo did his job, but now it's time for him to go. Brady Clark, we hardly knew ye, and then we saw you in that last game against Colorado and knew we made the right choice.

Center Field
Juan Pierre - 668 AB, .293/.331/.353, 0 HR, 64-15 SB-CS, 75 OPS+, .249 EqA, 2.6 Warp1

Oh, Juan. Well, he seemed to pick up his game offensively and defensively toward the end. He's got such a long history though of being just a 2nd half player. If he could string together a .308/.356/.373 line (his 2007 2nd half), I could live with that. What gets me is that he has occasional bits of doing what he should, where he fouls off a ton of pitches to force a walk. Then he led the NL in sac bunts - completely unnecessary, and much of that a result of attempted bunting for base hits that failed. I'm pretty sure he'll decline more - this was his first year without at least 1 homer, and only one of his 10 career home runs was inside the park.

Right Field
Andre Ethier - 447 AB, .284/.350/.452, 13 HR, 0-4 SB-CS, 103 OPS+, .270 EqA, 4.4 Warp1
Matt Kemp - 292 AB, .342/.373/.521, 10 HR, 10-5 SB-CS, 125 OPS+, .294 EqA, 2.8 Warp1

Good and good. Give each 550 AB, and they will be productive. As a matter of fact, if you ignore Ethier's April, he hit .291/.366/.451, and either way compares favorably to JD Drew. Kemp could do some serious damage if given more playing time, although he still needs to develop his patience further. Ideally, next year will feature Kemp and Ethier both in the outfield.

40 Man Roster Analysis

Players that should stay with the big club, definitely
Russell Martin
Brad Penny
James Loney
Matt Kemp
Takashi Saito
Jonathan Broxton
Chad Billingsley

That's a catcher, first baseman, right/center fielder, two starting pitchers, a closer and a setup man.

Players that I would like to leave via Free Agency
Mark Hendrickson
Roberto Hernandez
David Wells
Randy Wolf
Mike Lieberthal
Shea Hillenbrand
Ramon Martinez
Olmedo Saenz
Mark Sweeney
Luis Gonzalez

Hendrickson's non-tender would be the hardest. The rest of these guys will probably leave as free agents or retire, so not a problem.

Players I really want to trade
Juan Pierre
Jeff Kent

Provided Kent doesn't retire, he could be a useful DH to some team. Provided Boston doesn't pick up A-Rod, they could theoretically let Lowell go, move Youkilis to third and play Kent at first. The difficulty of trading Juan Pierre is that he would have to be traded for someone else who is a real salary burden, sort of a Jeff Suppan type, but more ridiculous. This would be someone who would give Dusty Baker a managerial job for it to happen. Otherwise, Pierre may just have to be admitted a failure by LA and displaced, benched and ultimately released. Trading him to SF would be more disrespectful than releasing him probably.

Players we are stuck with
Esteban Loaiza
Nomar Garciapara

Provided we trade Kent, Nomar could probably play better defense at 2b, and he should be able to bounce back to at least an .800 OPS. A 2B with an .800 OPS is alright by me. Loaiza will probably be Tomko'ed. What was Billy Beane thinking?

Players that would be a good idea to think about trading
Rafael Furcal
Derek Lowe
Hong-Chi Kuo
Eric Stults

Kuo is a good pitcher, but he's such an injury risk. He could be valuable for teams that like the Mark Prior types. Did I mention he's a lefty?

Derek Lowe is in the last year of his contract and looks like he wants out. That said,
he's an incredibly valuable starting pitcher, and he could be huge for getting some sort of significant player in a trade, or helping us dump Juan Pierre and not pay his salary. That may become a concern if we pay A-Rod $35,000,000 per year.

Eric Stults is a potentially useful fourth or fifth starter, and he's . . . left-handed. But without Kuo's injury history.

Furcal had a bad offensive year which he's certain to rebound from, and even then, he was 2nd in baseball in RF only to Tulo, and the Dodgers have a much higher K/9 than the Rockies. This means Furcal is an awesome defensive SS who can hit the ball too if he's healthy. If the BoSox want to take a chance on his being healthy, more power to them.

Players that could easily be Dodgers next year but could be traded
Andre Ethier
Andy LaRoche
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu
Joe Beimel
Eric Hull
John Meloan
Scott Proctor
Jason Repko
Delwyn Young

Of this group, I'll say LaRoche's injury makes me really hate the Betemit trade. Abreu and Hu should be bench players to stick around for when Nomar and LaRoche get hurt. Then A-Rod plays third and you have a good youthful combo up the middle that can hit a little. Ethier and Beimel are both good and likely to stick around, Young and Repko look like outfield bench players, though Young or Repko should start taking some PT from Pierre.

Players that could spend all next year on the DL
Jason Schmidt
Yhency Brazoban

Brazoban is $55 million away from being Darren Dreifort, while Schmidt is only $8 million away.

Players that might be let go but are useful
Chun-Hui Tsao
Rudy Seanez

Seanez is an old dude and who knows what he does. Tsao was useful but injury prone, and management might consider him fungible, which would be unfortunate.


Players likely to start in the Minors
DJ Houlton
Mike Megrew
Greg Miller

Control problems and familiarity issues, or whatever.

A-Rod

Can be ours without losing the first round draft pick. Nice.

What went wrong

MSNBC, the TV network that brought you Don Imus, has more dumbasses to spew out garbage. Here is Michael Ventre:

The Dodgers have been out of the NL wild card race for some time now, even though they have yet to make it official. It’s like knowing that somebody is quitting a job soon, because they’ve been packing up their belongings, taking three-hour lunches and generally slacking off. All that’s missing is the memo.

As a matter of fact, they were in the race until their rotation collapsed after Randy Wolf joined the esteemed group of veterans on the Disabled List, they traded a useful young power hitter for a 30 year old middle reliever and were then forced to rely on Shea Hillenbrand as an everyday third baseman, a position at which no other team in baseball would even think of playing him because of his demonstrated inability.

This “geezer-punk” assemblage has lost five in a row at a time when the San Diego Padres, making a run at the division title, have won seven straight. The Dodgers just suffered their first-ever four-game sweep by the Rockets at Coors Field. So naturally, the already cranky tricenarians and quadragenarians who creak around the clubhouse in search of their lost youth are becoming more cantankerous by the minute.

They lost like 12 in a row last year. Streaks happen in baseball over a 162 game season, especially when you have to rely on Esteban Loaiza and David Wells in your rotation. Besides, doesn't this just suggest that the veterans are assholes?

Most of the responsibility for winning has been entrusted to kids who haven’t yet learned how to win. In the context of a competitive division that includes the likes of the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies, that’s almost like conceding defeat in spring training.

This is among the goddamn stupidest things I've read. For two reasons:
1) The Dodgers' minor league system is very good. As a matter of fact, the Dodgers won the AA championship in 2005 with many of these players.
2) "Knowing how to win" is a worthless empty bullshit phrase used by reporters who don't know a goddamned thing about baseball. It's easy to know how to win: you score more runs than the other team! End of story!
3) The Diamondbacks have been winning with a bunch of young kids, quite successfully. Randy Johnson started 10 games for them. And even then, they have given up more runs than they've scored, and they should really have a losing record.

These players know how to play baseball. They would not have been drafted if they didn't. You are a worthless human being.

The Dodgers received some early love from pundits as division winners on the basis of their starters. But they’ve been spotty, the bullpen has faltered, and the sticks have been wildly erratic. It isn’t one statistical category that has caused the team’s downfall, but rather those “things you don’t see in the box scores,” especially team chemistry. More often than not, these have been dead men walking.

Nice. Claim that whatever is going on cannot be measured, therefore bringing you into the realm of the irrational where you cannot be disproven.

Now call me a stupid kid, because I'm a senior in college on scholarship double majoring in Math and Economics, but there are statistical reasons for the Dodgers' problems:

Slugging percentage: .404 (14th of 16 in the NL)
Caught Stealing: 47 (most in NL!)
HR: 121 (15th of 16 in the NL)
Walks: 492 (12th of 16 in the NL)

Last year, as a team, the Dodgers were 3rd in the NL in walks, ending the year with 601. The odds of the Dodgers racking up 109 walks in 7 games are, well, 0. But even with the same power problems and virtually the same team batting average, they at least slugged .432 as a team. Let's look at some other problems

Rafael Furcal 2006: .300/.369/.445 (good numbers)
Rafael Furcal 2007: .270/.333/.355 (bad numbers!)

Nomar 2006: .303/.367/.505 (good 3-hitter numbers)
Nomar 2007: .284/.329/.372 (bad 8-hitter numbers)

So in addition to $20 million worth of payroll playing worse than the previous year, the Dodgers were dead men not walking. Hahaha. I'm a writer now too!

The recent dustups caused by Lowe and Kent, as well as a recent complaint by Gonzalez that he can “see the handwriting on the wall” and therefore doesn’t expect to be back next season, and some anonymous chatter that manager Grady Little has lost his players, only underlines the reality that tension exists.

Luis Gonzalez was signed to be a stopgap veteran because Matt Kemp was believed by management to need some seasoning in the minors. It was apparent by May that Gonzalez was not necessary on the Dodgers.

The McCourts have gone the cheapie route, and in doing so, they’ve created a team with no real identity and a hazy future.

This is incredibly stupid. The Dodgers have the 2nd highest payroll in the NL, behind the Mets. Also, the Cleveland Indians have a $61 million payroll, and they just clinched a playoff spot today. As for an identity, how about their all-star catcher Russell Martin? Ever heard of him? Dumbass.

It wouldn’t be so bad if such an approach bore fruit, but it hasn’t. The Angels have worked kids like Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits, Casey Kotchman and Maicer Izturis into their plans, but they’ve managed to amass a giant lead over second-place Seattle in the AL West. They did that by building a superior pitching staff, and by making sure that the veterans who are at the heart of the lineup – Orlando Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews, Jr. – are all at or near their primes. The Dodgers, conversely, populate their roster with fantasy league scraps.

This is also hilarious. The Angels pitching success has been due to young pitchers through their farm system. Bartolo Colon had one good year in Anaheim. Further, Anaheim took some time to be successful - they've basically been rebuilding since 2004, after they followed their WS title with a losing season. Orlando Cabrera is an average hitter, as is Matthews. You can see some numbers here, like the ages of players on their pitching staff, many of whom came up through their farm system.

And again, it takes time for a farm system to develop. The Dodgers did not have a good system or good drafts until 2002 turned things around. It wasn't until last year that those players came up into the majors, because White drafts high school and junior college players. Further, these players have several years before reaching their physical peak, so there is that to consider as well.

The coming weeks will tell a lot about the direction of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now they’re going down. That’s clear. But will Kent stick around next year (he has that option)? If he does, will the Dodgers get him some experienced help so he can realistically go after that elusive World Series ring? Or will it be more of “Daddy Day Care”?

Jeff Kent is not anyone the Dodgers desperately need. He is far more of a drain on the Dodgers defensively than Nomar was in Boston. He makes stupid baserunning mistakes, and can't run that well either. Kent is really best suited to being a 1b/dh right now, and if he wants a title, he should go to the Yankees. The Dodgers' young players are not as good as they will be, but they need to play regularly, and getting players like Kent out of the way will go a long way in helping that.

The New Biggest Free Agent of the offseason

Barry Bonds will not be coming back to the Giants, and so he will become someone's DH. I'm guessing Yankees, because if A-Rod leaves to get more money elsewhere (please let it be LA), they'll need someone else to hate over there.

Free the Dodgers - Trade Kent

This means we can trade Jeff Kent.
In the wake of a barely-show-up loss Thursday in Colorado, a fifth consecutive defeat that essentially ended their playoff hopes, quiet Jeff Kent quaked.

Using words like "perplexing" and "curious" and "bitter," he took veiled shots at Manager Grady Little and direct shots at the Dodgers' kids.

"You can use all your fingers on your hand and point around," he told the media in Colorado after the 9-4 loss. "There's many things that have happened that are perplexing. Many things that have happened that are curious."

When asked if those things included Little's daily lineup and decisions, Kent said, "Everything."

This also, apparently, includes the younger players on the team, about whom Kent said, "I don't know why they don't get it."

Jeff Kent is no doubt furious over Matt Kemp's baserunning mistakes. God damn it, Jeff Kent should be making those mistakes! And aggressive mistakes are unacceptable - suddenly spacing out is much better.

This is your veteran leadership. There's a reason Jeff Kent has a reputation as a terrible teammate - he is a terrible teammate.

Kent is watching his chances for a world championship disappear. Gonzalez is mourning his chances at 3,000 hits (he's still 501 short). Garciaparra just wants last season back.

"I'm running out of time," Kent said. "A lot of kids in here, they don't understand that."

You selfish son of a bitch. You're not the most important dude on the team. You're actually washed up, and you're not going to be all that useful much longer. If anything, Grady Little should have shut you down the rest of the year so your option didn't vest. Hopefully, with nobody but Carlos Pena on the free agent market at first base, we can ship you out for something useful. Enjoy being a Yankee, you bastard.

Giving up on 2007 officially

So, what was your opinion of Kingman's Performance?

I'm raising the white flag. Unofficially, I did it as soon as Colletti revealed his true level of idiocy in signing Juan Pierre. But now, after losing a doubleheader to the goddamned Rockies, I'm giving up.

I was furious when Colletti signed Pierre, because Pierre had Kenny Lofton's defense and less patience at the plate. He steals bases and admittedly he did have a good percentage this year, but still, he's not worth $9 million per year. Not when you have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Delwyn Young, Jason Repko, and Jayson Werth already there. Sure, get Gonzalez, but Pierre?

But getting off a rant, let's consider this: The Dodgers are currently 79-72. With 11 games left, the best they can possibly get to is 90-72. The Padres are leading the Wild Card at 83-67. If San Diego plays .500 ball, which is realistic but slightly optimistic, they can go 89-73. The Dodgers, then, could at worst go 10-1 if they want to have a chance at the postseason. I don't see it happening. As much as I'd love to be wrong, I'm more interested in how late their draft pick will be now - I know it will be before 22.

2007 Free Agent Watch

First Base
Matt Stairs - could also play corner OF. A serviceable player who has some power, not a bad pickup for someone who needs an Olmedo type guy that might play more often.

This means that trading Nomar or Kent will look really good.

Second Base
Tadahito Iguchi - average 2B hitter, pretty good defensive reputation. Don't know where he ends up.

Third Base
A-Rod - the star of this year's offseason, as he will undoubtedly opt out. A signing that would spell a trade of Andy LaRoche for LA, but I would welcome it. Expect NY to want to keep him, but few others will afford him or even try to. Colletti might sign him to assert himself.

Mike Lowell - Boston will pick him up likely, unless they decide to spend more and grab A-Rod. More likely they stick with him, though, given he's put up a solid 128 OPS+ this year, and they'd rather not commit to A-Rod for a decade.


Shortstop

David Eckstein - St Louis will probably retain the all-star MVP, but it's worth mentioning.

Outfield

Matt Stairs - corner guy, not going to be everyday, probably, but not a bad player.

Sammy Sosa - recovered well from an 82 OPS+ to a 98 OPS+, but is still probably not that useful a player. He'll get people to look at him, though.

Trot Nixon - .346 OBP, .345 SLG. Bench jockey.

Geoff Jenkins - lifetime Brewer, 110ish OPS+ consistently, not a bad player to get. Milwaukee might keep him for that reason, though.

Milton Bradley - injury prone like crazy, and crazy, but a good ballplayer when he plays. Can play CF, but will likely stick to the corners.

Bobby Abreu - doing pretty good, though is walk rate is way down this year, although he still has more than Juan Pierre ever did in a season.

Barry Bonds - stay in SF, or be a DH?

Adam Dunn (T) - Having a good year, will almost certainly have 100 BB and 40 HR, but will Wayne Krivsky say that the strikeouts are a bad thing and let him go?

Mike Cameron - fading, and average hitter with a bit of power. A stopgap type of centerfielder.

Torii Hunter - an answer to a hole in CF. Look for Baltimore and NY to show interest, as the Twins won't try to afford him.

Andruw Jones - Braves will try to afford him and fail. Look for NY, Baltimore, Boston or, what the hell, Anaheim to pick him up.

Aaron Rowand - good runner up prize for those unable to get Hunter or Jones.

Catcher

Michael Barrett (30) - the best FA catcher on the market. Wow.

Jason Kendall (33) - having a terrible horrible no good very bad year. Who wants him?

Paul LoDuca (35) - May stay in NY, but who knows.

Mike Piazza (39) - No clue. Probably going for backup catcher gig, LA might look for him to give Little a reason to rest Russell Martin.

Closer

Eric Gagne - a very poor showing in Boston, though this is due to small sample size and an unusuallly high BABIP (.500! in 10 games!). This may be because his stuff is not as sharp as it once was, but that would only explain a difference from about .280 to .330. Gagne's just been having bad luck in Boston.

Mariano Rivera - His ERA is the highest it's been since he's been a closer, which sounds awful until you hear it's 3.02. But seriously, the Yankees will probably pick him up. I dont' know why I'm bothering with this paragraph.

Todd Jones - Is a middle reliever, but watch some idiot GM pay $5,000,000 for him next year.

Starting Pitcher

Tom Glavine - he's old, but still going. Will probably stick with the Mets, but who knows.

Andy Pettitte - had a good year with the Yankees. May stay, particularly as there will likely be Panic over Mike Mussina's awful year.

Kenny Rogers - he's old, and missed much of this year due to injury. That won't stop some team on picking up this veteran.

Matt Clement - out a year due to surgery, a Randy Wolf type gamble, likely to command a similar price of $8 million for a 1 year deal.

Bartolo Colon - After winning a Cy Young award 2 years ago, he's still fat, but he's been awful and injury prone. This looks like a Texas Rangers move.

Curt Schilling - best free agent pitcher on the market, and he's not coming back to Boston.

We have some veterans to ship out

And do we ever! Right now, we've got batting champs, MVPs, speedy centerfielders! Come and get 'em! Who are our potential trade partners this offseason?

St. Louis Cardinals
They have Jim Edmonds in Center Field, but have you seen Jim Edmonds lately? He's not an everyday kind of guy - he keeps breaking down, he's not as good a hitter, etc. Not to mention that his WARP-3 for this year was just 2.9, and Pierre's was 3.4! Given that St. Louis is in no position to spend a lot of money on a top centerfielder, especially with a rotation as bad as theirs, maybe a straight-up trade of Pierre for Edmonds would make everyone happy, especially if Edmonds doesn't insist on playing everyday. Even if Grady Little will insist on batting him 4th or 5th.

Houston Astros
Craig Biggio is retiring, so why not stick an aging veteran there for one more year and call it a transition period? Kent would go along with it, for what it's worth, because he could see his family. More importantly, the Astros might give up something for Kent, since he's still a pretty useful player.

For that matter, maybe they'd like Nomar over there. They could use a third baseman, but I don't know if Nomar wants to go to Texas, and it is his choice.

Cincinnatti Reds
Maybe they'd want Nomar at third, but again, he's got a no trade clause. Maybe if he really wants to hang out with Ken Griffey Jr and Bronson Arroyo, but I don't know how likely that is.

Atlanta Braves
They just might need a centerfielder when they can't afford Andruw Jones, and maybe they'd want a guy who can play everyday. Even when he shouldn't.

New York Mets
They could play Ruben Gotay at 2nd, or have Jeff Kent! They could also use Kent to spell Delgado, who is clearly not aging gracefully.

Philadelphia Phillies
I put this here because they thought trading Bobby Abreu made them a better team.

Washington Nationals
They locked up their infield, but maybe they'd want Pierre, or someone else who would be real high-profile to add to an opening day roster in a new ballpark. We'd take Ryan Church.

Orioles
Maybe they'd want Pierre, who would sadly be a big improvement over Corey Patterson. I wouldn't count on it, but you never know. They might go for Kent or Nomar at first base, too.

White Sox
They could try a young guy in center, or get an extra Scott Podsednik and get Juan Pierre. I hate to do that to Juan, although Ozzie would really like him.

Minnesota Twins
We know Torri Hunter isn't going to stay there. We also know that in addition to a center fielder, they could use a DH or a third baseman (Nick Punto?!), so why not offer Kent, Pierre, Nomar and cash for someone. This has the makings of a real blockbuster deal. If they're really crazy, Santana.

Regulars

September has come, and the Dodgers should really consider themselves out of the playoff race, but they won't. Whatever, but let's see. Here are the 6 guys who made up the offense the most ranked by their WARP3:

Russell Martin
raw: .298/.378/.474, 119 OPS+, 21 SB, 7 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 8.38 (1st of 17)
RATE2: 110
Warp3: 9.7

Rafael Furcal
Raw: .279/.346/.367, 85 OPS+, 16 SB, 6 CS, 5 HR
EQA: .252
RF: 5.00 (2nd of 25 qualifiers)
RATE2: 118
Warp3: 8.0

Jeff Kent
raw: .295/.371/.498, 122 OPS+, 1 SB, 2 CS, 17 HR
EQA: .291
RF: 4.67 (19 of 22)
Rate2: 93
Warp3: 6.2

Andre Ethier
raw: .288/.354/.450, 107 OPS+, 0 SB, 4 CS, 10 HR
EQA: .272
RF: 2.12 (10 of 20)
Rate2: 121/106 LF/RF
Warp3: 5.7

Luis Gonzalez
raw: .276/.355/.425, 101 OPS+, 6 SB, 2 CS, 12 HR
EQA: .270
RF: 1.73 (16 of 19)
Rate2: 98
Warp3: 4.2

Juan Pierre
raw: .291/.323/.348, 74 OPS+, 53 SB, 11 CS, 0 HR
EQA: .247
RF: 2.30 (15th of 16 qualifiers)
Rate2: 91
Warp3: 3.3

Some thoughts
1) Next year, Kemp should get the regular gig in right field and Gonzalez should be gone. This puts Ethier in Left Field, where his advantage over Gonzalez will drastically improve the overall outfield defense.

2) Juan Pierre needs to end his streak.

3) Furcal is too good defensively given his bat this year. Granted the ankle injury took his power off, but to only have 5 HR now when he had 15 on the year last year hurts.

4) Kent's defense gets worse all the time, but he's still the best overall hitter on the team among regulars, at least until Matt Kemp is a regular.

5) Ethier should not steal bases. He might be better suited as a 5 or 6 hitter for that reason.

Yeah

So I've been lazy about blogging . . .

Current Dodger team by WARP3

Rotation
Penny - 8.9
Lowe - 8.4
Wolf - 5.9
Billinsgley - 3.3
Kuo - 1.5

Bullpen
Saito - 6.2
Broxton - 2.9
Seanez - 2.9
Beimel - 2.1
Hendrickson - 1.8
Tomko - 1.1

Starting Lineup
Martin - 7.1
Furcal - 5.3
Gonzalez - 4.3
Kent - 3.1
Ethier - 3.4
Pierre - 2.3
Betemit - 2.1
Nomar - .4

Bench
Abreu - 1.4
Kemp - 1.1
Saenz - 0.8
Loney - 0.3
Lieberthal - 0.3
Anderson - -0.1

Hey, How about a Dodger Post!

Well here we go. The Dodgers have had some ups and downs, but have also made some roster changes. Here's the current roster:

DL:
Ramon Martinez
Jason Schmidt
Jason Repko

Position Players
Martin - C
Lieberthal - C
Nomar - 1B
Loney - 1B
Saenz - 1B/PH
Abreu - 2B/3B/SS
Kent - 2B
Furcal - SS
Betemit - 3B
Gonzalez - LF
Pierre - CF
Ethier - RF
Kemp - RF/CF
Anderson - OF

Pitchers
Lowe - SP
Penny - SP
Wolf - SP
Kuo - SP
Billingsley - SP(?)
Saito - CL
Broxton - 8
Beimel - LRP
Hendy - LRP
Tomko - RP
Seanez - RP

Seanez is actually a legitimate choice for a 7th inning guy. I'd like to see them get rid of Tomko when Tsao is ready to return, although I'd rather him be really ready than not ready like Schmidt.

If you were to do the rotation by quality, right now it would be
Penny
Lowe
Kuo
Billz
Wolf


And Kuo is a few more excellent starts away from staff ace territory. Really, that guy can pitch, and he's got great stuff. He's a worthy adversary for Roy Halladay on Wednesday. Billingsley, if he continues on the pace of his reliever numbers, could be an excellent starter too. Wolf has been slumping a bit lately, but picked it up a little in his last start. His latest difficulty is pitching deep into games, but he's still been better than expected this year.

My New Favorite Quote

"That's ridiculous. But that's the small-mindedness of Major League Baseball. They don't know what the hell they're doing. And if I get in, everybody will know that they don't know what the hell they're doing."

This is former Dodger pitcher and now independent instructor, Mike Marshall. Article here.

Jayson Stark's "Reasoning"

There are two possibilities for what Stark did in his columns (and probably his book):

1) Ask a bunch of scouts who they think is overrated or underrated

2) Dream up something off the top of his head and stick to his guns

In essence, this was a combination of (1) and (2). We can tell this by Stark's use of arbitrary statistics, such as counting statistics up to a certain age, career statistics for two players of the same age who entered the league at completely different stages of their development, pitcher wins, and batting average. Sometimes, he'll use some genuinely useful statistics, but that's only when they tend to support his view. Comparing the major league career statistics of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, though, is quite dishonest.

Another of the systematic flaws in Stark's reasoning is the failure to understand aging in baseball. The old standard age for peaking in performance was 27 at one point, but this has gotten closer to 30 or so, thanks largely to more sensible training methods, longer pitching rotations, etc. Further, different clubs will have different reasons for playing players in the majors before a certain age; Santana didn't enter the Twins' rotation full-time until he was 25 while Sabathia jumped right in at 20. The rate statistics, namely strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate statistics are important to consider here, but they must be observed in the proper context. Stark, though, compares ERA and BA of players that are of different ages and started at different points in their careers in different situations.

Perhaps the most striking failure is to have an objective reference point for which players are good and which are not. The criteria for what makes each player particularly good appears to be all in Stark's mind. The same is the case for determining which players are overrated and underrated.

***

The problem for Stark is not that he is using subjective analysis - it is very difficult if not impossible to make a truly objective determination of who is over and under rated - but he is certainly far too biased in his procedure. The evidence he uses is shaky in far too many examples. What is most egregious, though, is that he lacks any sort of consistency, other than trusting the opinions of scouts and bending the evidence around his own preconceived notions.

Me vs Stark, part 3

Jayson Stark on Underrated Players

What could be worse than the overrated list? Probably the underrated list. Let’s see what we have here.

No. 1 -- Roy Oswalt

Could somebody please explain why this guy isn't considered the National League's Johan Santana?

Let’s look here:

Oswalt career ERA+: 141
Santana career ERA+: 143

Pretty good comparison, there, but here’s where we see a difference.

Santana: 9.54 K/9, .220 Opp. BA,
Oswalt’s career: 7.49 K/9, .253 Opp BA

Santana is a much more consistent strikeout pitcher than Oswalt, which means that people hit the ball much less against him. It’s also worth noting that Oswalt is 2 years older than Santana.

Oswalt is a two-time 20-game winner. He leads all active right-handers not named Pedro Martinez in winning percentage (104-50, .675). And he's the only active pitcher who can say he has never -- never -- had a season in which his winning percentage was worse than .625 or his ERA was higher than 3.50. Yet not only has he never won a Cy Young Award -- he's finished in the top three only once. Ridiculous, isn't it?

Wins don’t mean anything. Steve Traschel won 15 games last year and sucked, and Randy Johnson won more games last year with an ERA of 5 than in 2004 with an ERA of 2.60, because run support gives pitchers wins. The run support happened to be unevenly distributed in such a way that Roy Oswalt was in line for a win more than Clemens. You’ll notice that Clemens had more no-decisions than Oswalt, and also that Oswalt had more losses than Clemens – basically everytime he didn’t have an excellent start.

A couple of years ago, I asked his catcher, Brad Ausmus, how many people -- if I polled 10,000 Americans -- would have any idea Roy Oswalt was (at the time) coming off back-to-back 20-win seasons.
"That would depend," Ausmus chuckled, "on whether anyone on our team was among the 10,000 Americans."
OK, I retorted, suppose nobody on the Astros was among the 10,000 Americans?
"Oh," Ausmus said. "Then none."

What the hell does this prove? First of all, Oswalt was hardly a low-profile unrecognized pitcher. He was in the World Series in 2005, and if people don’t recognize him from that, it’s probably because FOX is so bad at broadcasting baseball that people would rather not watch the World Series. But the point is that Oswalt was recognized as the NLCS MVP, and he was also an All-Star in 2005 and 2006. I don’t think he can legitimately claim anonymity. But really, you don’t determine popularity by asking someone whether they think someone is popular, unless you’re a retard.

Your honor, and members of the all-underrated jury, we rest our case.

Case dismissed based on poor evidence. I would have said something about leading the NL in ERA and K/BB in 2006, or how he’s pitched over 220 innings each of the last 3 seasons, or how he threw 8 shutouts in 2005, or something that is a useful statistic.

No. 2 -- Trevor Hoffman

It's always fascinating how one month -- October -- can twist the perceptions of
players in every conceivable direction. So we're going to toss all postseason
stats into the dumpster and compare only the regular-season careers of two great
closers.

Good idea.

Closer A and Closer B have both had long, distinguished careers. Closer B is
considered a cinch Hall of Famer. Closer A still has folks debating whether he's
Cooperstown-worthy or not.

Wait, you caught me off guard at first. Didn’t you say we weren’t talking about careers now? Well, I guess you get to just ramble on whatever the hell you want, so we are now.

Yet Closer A has converted 89.5 percent of his lifetime save opportunities, struck out 9.8 hitters per nine innings in his career and held those poor opposing hitters to a .207 batting average and .264 on-base percentage.

So Closer A beats Closer B in every one of these categories. Closer B's figures: 87.9 percent, 8.0 strikeouts per 9 IP, .214 average, .270 on-base. Why, then, would anyone think that Closer A might not have Hall credentials as worthy as Closer B?

Easy question. Because Closer B is Mariano Rivera, the Greatest Postseason Closer Who Ever Lived (34 saves, 0.80 ERA).

Closer A, on the other hand, is Hoffman, who once went eight years between postseason save opportunities through no fault of his own.

All right, you used some somewhat useful statistics. They seem similar enough, though Hoffman has a higher career K/9. The reason people think more of Rivera than Hoffman is far simpler – Mariano looks more legitimate on the radar gun. When you throw a mid-90s cutter that breaks more bats than anything, you’ve got good stuff. Hoffman throws a Greg Maddux fastball and
a 72 mile an hour changeup. He's had some success, with that stuff, but it must also be remembered that he plays in a huger park with worse hitters facing him.

Now obviously, I'd have to be a major goofball to argue Hoffman has a better Hall case than Rivera. But that doesn't mean Hoffman hasn't been criminally underrated. Here's the best way to put their careers in perspective:

Mariano Rivera has a career ERA+ of 195, and Hoffman’s is 149.

They have basically the same number of blown saves in their careers -- 58 for Hoffman, 57 for Rivera -- except Hoffman has had 70 more opportunities.
In other words, Rivera would have to go two seasons without blowing a single save just to say he had the same save-conversion percentage as Trevor Hoffman. So can we please give this man his due already?

Well part of the save percentage thing is because Rivera spent more time as a setup man to John Wetteland. When you’re a setup man, you don’t get saves, you get holds, but if you screw up, you get a blown save.

But if you want to talk about what’s going on right now, Rivera’s in a funk and the Yankees are sucking so much they don’t get to him, but Hoffman looks like his stuff his getting weaker. In the interest of full disclosure, I hate Trevor Hoffman, and everytime I see him pitch I really think he’s going to blow it. He gets by on way too much luck, it seems sometimes.

No. 3 -- Hanley Ramirez

We liked playing that Player A versus Player B game so much, let's try it again.

Yay.

Player A is a National League shortstop. He is averaging a .303 batting average, 129 runs scored, 76 extra-base hits and 52 stolen bases per 162 games in his career. Player B is also an NL shortstop. He's averaging .288, 114 runs, 60 extra-base hits and 61 steals per 162 games.

Steals numbers but no stolen base percentage? At all?

Player A is 23. So is Player B. So which one would you start your team with? If
I didn't tell you the names, I'm betting you'd take Player A, right? But now
let's reverse that. Let's say I had never shown you those numbers. And then I
asked if you'd rather have Ramirez (aka Player A) or Jose Reyes
(Player B). Then what?

Well then I would say shame on you for a poor comparison. You have two 23 year old players. You are comparing one player’s performance starting at age 22 and one starting at age 20. Do you really not see anything wrong with this? To be fair, you should either include Ramirez’s minor league numbers and adjust them down to estimate what he would have been in the majors, or just disregard Reyes from 2003-2005. Then you could compare Reyes and Ramirez in 2006, and see then that Reyes was marginally better (OPS+ of 118 vs 116, SB% of 79% vs 77%).

Admit it. You'd take Reyes. Heck, to be honest, I'd probably take Reyes myself. But does anybody who doesn't own a teal cap know Ramirez's numbers are actually better? Dubious. Which sums up his underratedness just about perfectly.

The people who think Ramirez’s numbers are better are the ones who don’t understand player development, or are intellectually dishonest and want to throw together a list. Besides, why would you want to mark someone as underrated when they’re already a well talked about player – Ramirez won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year! You could talk about how the Red Sox thought Alex Gonzalez would be better than him, maybe, but that might not be so happy for some people.

No. 4 -- Jake Peavy

Is there a more fun pitcher to watch in the entire National League than Peavy?
If there is, he's at least on a list that's shorter than Tim Kurkjian. Well, of
course it is.

I could make a list that’s shorter than Tim, even if he’s a 3 foot midget. But hey, he’s good. Unless, of course, you think hitting home runs is fun to watch, or you like crazy antics. Then Jose Lima, who gave Juan Pierre his first big league homer, is definitely your guy.

Since 2004, if we compare the Padres' strikeout machine to all NL starting pitchers with as many innings pitched as he has, he tops the whole league in strikeouts, strikeout ratio, WHIP and ERA. And if you enjoy swinging and missing, Jake Peavy is your man. The only NL starter who has induced that with greater frequency than Peavy (27.3 percent), according to our friends at Inside Edge, is the Phillies' Cole Hamels (27.9).

Yeah, he’s a good strikeout pitcher. He led the league in strikeouts one year, and he led the league in ERA one year, but still no Cy Young. But his ERA crept over 4 last year, so you could ignore him then.

Yet Peavy is probably only about the 15th-most-talked-about pitcher in his own time zone. And anybody with that kind of greatness-to-pub ratio is a lock to make a list like this.

A bit of hyperbole there, but true enough. And forget his time zone; West Coast Pitchers will easily slip under the East Coast radar.

No. 5 -- C.C. Sabathia

You know what might be the biggest upset of the year? That Sabathia didn't get
one vote in our recent "Which Pitchers Would You Pay to Watch?" poll. Heck, I'd
pay to watch him.

Was it one of those online polls? Was it something where you could check multiple boxes, or did you have to pick just one? If I could pick just one, I’d pick Santana. But seriously, those kinds of polls are pretty useless because they suffer from voluntary response bias. But of course, you already knew that.

He's already the first left-handed pitcher since Andy Pettitte to start his career with six straight seasons of double-digit wins.
He has won more games (88) than any active pitcher under 27. And the Elias Sports Bureau reports he's just the fifth pitcher to debut in the last quarter-century and reach 1,000 strikeouts before turning 27. (The others: Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood.)

Um, that’s nice, but he also started younger too. He was thrown into the rotation in 2001, and never pitched in relief in the majors. Johan Santana was pitching at least some of his games out of the bullpen until he was 24 (the next year he won a Cy Young award). In fact, that’s about the only reason for such numbers with such an arbitrary statistic. Besides, Jake Peavy will do that later this year. Wait till Hammels has been around a while, too. I’d also count on Felix Hernandez doing it.

But the real reason C.C. is on this list -- aside from that snub in the pay-to-watch survey -- is simple: He's only getting better. He's striking out more hitters (9.05 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And he's walking fewer hitters (1.6 per 9 IP) than he ever has. And that's what aces -- especially underrated aces -- are made of.

You forgot to make that point with Peavy. Also, getting better is not what aces are made of so much as it's what players that haven't reached their prime are made of. You also forgot that
Hoffman is over the hill. Further, you're using small sample size data again talking about the current season. Talk about the previous season too, or else you'll use really bad data.

So yes, you are retarded.

No. 6 -- Carl Crawford

Joining the Devil Rays isn't exactly the same thing as joining the witness protection program. But it's close enough in Crawford's case.

Has anybody noticed that this guy has become the first player since Rogers
Hornsby to increase his batting average and home run totals five years in a row?

Has anybody noticed that the only other players since 1900 to match his 2006 numbers in batting average (.305), stolen bases (58) and home runs (18) were Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan? Has anybody noticed he's on pace to become the only player besides Ty Cobb to reach 1,000 hits, 300 steals and 100 triples before he even turns 28?

Yeah, actually, people who pay attention to baseball, particularly fantasy players. People that steal bases are widely pursued in the fantasy game, and he hits for average and even a bit of power too. It also makes sense that a guy who starts in the major leagues really young is going to have higher totals in his counting stats, and that young players will improve until their prime.

Yeah, didn't think so (outside of those 29 general managers who would love
to trade for him). Well, we sure did blow his cover, didn't we?

ESPN - If you're dumber than we are, it's news to you.

No. 7 -- Placido Polanco

Polanco and his double-play partner in Detroit, Carlos Guillen, probably both should have made this team. But if I'd included everybody who deserved to make it, we would've blown a hole in cyberspace.

If by “blown a hole in cyberspace” you mean “pick someone who’s a much better baseball player” you would be correct.

So why Polanco? Because, when I was mulling over this list and brought up Polanco's name, one scout's instant reply was: "He should be your captain."

This is why you drive me insane. You go by scouts’ OPINIONS to determine who is underrated. DON’T YOU SEE HOW STUPID THIS IS?!

Players like Placido Polanco operate so far below the radar screen, you need a submarine to keep track of them. But since he arrived in Detroit on June 10, 2005, and got his chance to play every day, he has struck out less (only 49 times) than any player in baseball who has been to the plate as often as he has. And the only AL players with higher batting averages than his (.317) since then are Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Vladimir Guerrero. Ever heard of them?

Yes, but let’s see what else they do with those batting averages, with the magical EQA stat, and for simplicity’s sake I’ll just pull down 2006 numbers.

Jeter: .343 BA, .308 EqA
Mauer: .347 BA, .314 EqA
Martinez: .316 BA, .293 EQA
Vlad: .329 BA, .306 EqA
Polanco: .295 BA, .234 EqA

This rather clearly shows that Placido Polanco was not nearly as good as the other 4 guys listed there. Just like Juan Pierre isn’t as good as Albert Pujols. Striking out less means little, except that your batting average can rise a little bit because you have more balls in play.

The best way to describe Polanco, though, isn't with any number. It's with that word, "winner." He's one of those "glue" players. He glues your team together with all those little things he does. And the 2006-07 Tigers are a walking testimonial to that. Then again, so is his inclusion on this prestigious list.

The best way to describe that last paragraph, though, isn’t with any assumption of intelligence on the part of the author. It’s with that word “retarded.” It’s one of those “empty” paragraphs. Doing all the little things is nice, but they are just that, little things. Winning is all about scoring more runs than the other guy. The guys who do the big things are the guys that really get you there, anyway. Polanco did help by playing good defense at second base, which is important to a staff of pitchers that pitches to contact, but it's absolute BS that he's underrated, particularly as he's ahead of Brian Roberts in the all-star voting.

No. 8 -- Kevin Youkilis

When a guy has been a star in "Moneyball," and then becomes an everyday player
for the Red Sox, you wouldn't think it would even be possible for him to be a
candidate for an all-underrated anything team. So for Youkilis to make this
squad, it might have to rank as the greatest achievement in his whole career.

I’m not sure how much hype Moneyball is worth, but the Red Sox are a bunch of media whores.

But in case you haven't been paying attention, this fellow has turned into much more than just "The Greek God of Walks." The only AL first baseman outslugging him is Justin Morneau. Nobody beats him in OPS, batting average, runs scored or multihit games. And one AL executive wanted to make sure we noticed what an underrated defender he is -- so now that he mentions it, Youkilis hasn't made an error at first since last July.

His patience at the plate alone is a great asset – he could be quite useful still with just a .260 average or so if his OBP will end up at .360-.370. Nice that he hasn’t made an error, although it’s worth noting that he seems to get to balls pretty well too, thus a Rate2 of over 100. The problem with the other stuff you’re citing is that they’re statistics from May, which are useless. Wait until after you can drop your OPS by .100 in a week.

Nevertheless, he still gets overshadowed by just about every position player around him, and by half the other first basemen in the league. And you'd be amazed how often "overshadowed" translates to "underrated" when you're writing columns like this one.

True enough, but it’s not even the league – it’s his own team. In All-Star balloting, Youkilis is not even on the ballot, because David Ortiz goes in at first base in such situations. He also won’t get the RBI opportunities because he was the leadoff man (now he’s the 2 hitter behind Julio Lugo, who should be a 9 hitter for the Royals).

No. 9 -- Joe Nathan

What Johan Santana is to the front end of Twins games, Nathan is to the back end. Since the day he arrived in Minnesota in 2004, he's been kind of the Mariano Rivera of the Great Lakes. But has anybody caught on to that -- except the hitters?

Everyone who plays fantasy, especially people in a 5x5 Roto league, know that Nathan is really really good.

Nathan has converted 92 percent of his save opportunities (blowing just 11 saves in 143 chances). He has punched out nearly two hitters (301 altogether) for every one who has gotten a hit (155). And his WHIP (.97 baserunners per inning) beats any closer's in his league since then.

True enough. Wow, this guy is a hell of a lot better than Trevor Hoffman, and he doesn't have as many years going back to make himself look better. Maybe he should be moved up and Hoffman dropped.

I was tempted to put his side-wheeling set-up man, Pat Neshek, on this team instead. But Joe Nathan is one of the most unpublicized, unhittable, totally dependable closers on earth. And nobody knows it. But with any luck, they do now.

Yeah, people still think Trevor Hoffman is more overrated, like you, dumbass. Hoffman, who Superdumbass Phil Garner used over Billy Wagner in the allstar game because of his reputation, resulting in the NL losing the game. Gee, lefty who throws 100 or righty that throws 88?

No. 10 -- Travis Hafner

Hafner's Indians compadre, Grady Sizemore, would have been awarded this final roster spot if he hadn't fouled up his underratedness by making the cover of Sports Illustrated. And even Hafner was a borderline call, just because his nickname(Pronk) has gotten so much attention.

Borderline? Getting attention does not make you overrated, it’s how good people perceive you to be. You’re a retard, Jayson Stark.

Yeah, America has heard of him. Yeah, America knows he can thump a little. But most of America still hasn't comprehended how good he is. Heck, I rated him the third-most underrated DH of all time in the book.

Um, ok.

Who owns the best on-base percentage (.420) and OPS (1.019) in the whole American League since 2004? The Pronkster. Who's the only hitter besides Albert Pujols to have a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage and 100 RBIs in each of the last three seasons? The Pronkster.

Yeah, he’s had the highest OPS+ in the AL the last few years running. Turns out he’s really good.

So what am I saying? That this fellow is a masher in the same stratosphere as Pujols, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero and Manny Ramirez. Except they hog all the "SportsCenter" time, while Hafner just monopolizes the All-Nickname Team. And that, ladies and gentlemen, may be the ultimate prescription for underratedness.

Yes, so that’s why he’s freaking 10th on this list? That’s reason to put this guy on the top! The
Dude also has never been named to an All-Star team. EVER!

As of today, suggested all-star ballots

Now what makes an all-star? It seems that each year, it should reward those who are doing well, although it's really a popularity contest. Nonetheless, let's see what this would look like if it were for those who did well. The fans get to vote, and that impacts which position players start.

All-OBP TEAMS
To the highest OBP at each position:
NL
2 - Russell Martin (.386)
3 - Todd Helton (.460)
4 - Kelly Johnson (.392)
5 - Chipper Jones (.392) - it should be noted that Mark Ellis and Chad Tracy are higher here, but neither have played as much, although it's borderline whether Chipper qualifies
6 - Jose Reyes (.398)
7 - Barry Bonds (.485)
8 - Carlos Beltran (.390)
9 - Brad Hawpe (.411)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.412)
3 - Jim Thome (.470) - although he's not on the ballot due to Konerko. Also deserving the ballot but not on is Kevin Youkilis
4 - Brian Roberts (.421)
5 - Mike Lowell (.391) - would be Iwamura but for injury
6 - Derek Jeter (.399)
7 - Nick Swisher (.425)
8 - Reggie Willits (.419)
9 - Vladimir Guerrero (.460)

The ALL-SB team
no regard to CS
NL
2 - Martin (8)
3 - Jeff Conine and Lance Berkman (3)
4 - Kaz Matsui and Brandon Phillips (9)
5 - David Wright (11)
6 - Jose Reyes (30)
7 - Alfonso Soriano (8)
8 - Juan Pierre (18)
9 - Shane Victorino (16)

AL
2 - Mike Napoli (4)
3 - Gary Sheffield (7)
4 - Brian Roberts (19)
5 - Nick Punto (11)
6 - Julio Lugo (17)
7 - Carl Crawford (12)
8 - Grady Sizemore (17)
9 - Bobby Abreu (8)

The All-HR team
NL
2 - Russell Martin and Michael Barrett (7)
3 - Prince Fielder (20)
4 - Dan Uggla (12)
5 - Aramis Ramirez (13)
6 - JJ Hardy (16)
7 - Adam Dunn (14)
8 - Eric Byrnes (9)
9 - Ken Griffey Jr (12)

AL
2 - Victor Martinez (12)
3 - Justin Morneau (14)
4 - Ian Kinsler (10)
5 - Alex Rodriguez (20)
6 - Jhonny Peralta (11)
7 - Craig Monroe (9)
8 - Torii Hunter (12)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (13)

The All-AVG team
NL
2 - Bengie Molina (.320)
3 - Derrek Lee (.357)
4 - Chase Utley (.304)
5 - Miguel Cabrera (.319)
6 - Edgar Renteria (.335)
7 - Matt Holiday (.345)
8 - Willy Tavares (.327)
9 - Tony Gwynn Jr (.320)

AL
2 - Jorge Posada (.360)
3 - Kevin Youkilis (.346)
4 - Luis Castillo (.337)
5 - Mike Lowell (.332)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (.329)
7 - Carl Crawford (.295)
8 - Ichiro Suzuki (.333)
9 - Magglio Ordonez (.362)