Predictions for 2007 - AL Central

Now this is the hard one. This will require more thought than any other division I have had to consider. Here goes.

New players
Tigers: Gary Sheffield
White Sox: Gavin Floyd
Injuns: Josh Barfield, David Delucci, Trot Nixon, Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez
Twins: Jeff Cirillo
Royals: Gil Meche, Octavio Dotel, Brian Bannister

Predicted order of finish

5th Place: Kansas City Royals (-20)

Lineup:
2 - Buck (.245/.306/.396), 26
3 - Shealy (.277/.333/.450), 27
4 - Grudzielanek (.297/.331/.409), 36
5 - Teahen (.290/.357/.517), 25
6 - Beroa (.234/.259/.333), 29
7 - Brown (.287/.358/.457), 32
8 - DeJesus (.295/.364/.446), 27
9 - Sanders (.246/.304/.425), 39
DH - Sweeney (.258/.349/.438), 33

Rotation
Gil Meche (R), 28
Odalis Perez (L), 29
Luke Hudson (R), 29
Jorge de la Rosa (L), 26
Brian Bannister (R), 26

Closer: Octavio Dotel

There is good news for this team. First, their offseason moves did help the team, as they added not only Meche, who while not great will be an improvement, but also Bannister. Also good is that they should be seeing improvement from young bright spot Mark Teahen as well as a rebound from last year from Mike Sweeney (who hit about .040 below career average, which of course dragged his OPS down by about .080 from career) and likely one for Odalis Perez too (who had an awful year last year, but should prove competent once again at some point).

The bad news is that they're still in a tough division. Had they been lucky enough to have gotten Joel Guzman in a trade when the Dodgers dumped him, they could have plugged in a piece of their lineup, rather than the near pitcher they have with Beroa's .592 OPS. Reggie Sanders was a waste of money too; trying with some of the journeymen the Dodgers picked up would have been cheaper and less hazardous. Also, their rotation still isn't all that good, but time will tell I guess. Maybe Gil Meche will finally come through. But don't count on it.


4 - Minnesota Twins (-8)
lineup
2- Mauer (.327/.429/.507), 24
3- Morneau (.321/.375/.559) , 25
4 - Castillo (.296/.358/.370), 31
5 - Punto (.290/.352/.373), 29
6 - Bartlett (.309/.367/.393), 27
7 - White (.246/.276/.345), 35
8 - Hunter (.278/.336/.490), 31
9 - Cuddyer (.284/.362/.504), 28
DH - Kubel (.241/.279/.386), 24

Rotation:
Johan Santana, L, 28
Boof Bonser, R, 25
Carlos Silva, R, 28
Matt Garza, R, 23
Glen Perkins, L, 24

Closer: Joe Nathan

Liriano was 11-3 with a 1.92 ERA as a starter. That's good, but he's out after Tommy John next year. While Santana and Bonser make the front of the rotation look good, the rest is less certain. The lineup features two guys with OBP under .300 last year, but 6 over .350, including Mauer's delightful .429. There is upside to Kubel, who has a small sample size and is only 24. At 5'11" and 200lb, you expect him to have some pop in his bat. He will probably be the biggest difference maker, other than a rebound from Rondell While (though that will likely be cancelled by other players regressing). It will be a tight division again, but the Twins get the shaft this time around.

3- Chicago White Sox (-5)
lineup:
2 - Pierzynski (.295/.333/.436), 30
3 - Konerko (.313/.381/.551), 31
4 - Iguchi (.281/.352/.422), 32
5 - Crede (.283/.323/.506), 29
6 - Uribe (.235/.257/.441), 28
7 - Podsednik (.261/.330/.353), 31
8 - Anderson (.225/.290/.359), 25
9 - Dye (.315/.385/.622), 33
DH - Thome (.288/.416/.598), 36

Rotation
Jose Contreras (R), 35
Mark Buehrle (L), 28
John Garland (R), 27
Javier Vasquez (R), 30
Gavin Floyd (R), 24

Closer: Bobby Jenks

The trade involving Freddie Garcia seemed weird. That and Ozzie Guillen wants to bunt more. OBP is problematic in this lineup; 5 players last year were below .350. Granted, they do have power, and they can probably count on Anderson to get a little better, but still. Juan Uribe, the out machine, couldn't get indicted so they have to deal with him making Juan Pierre look like Bobby Abreu. Otherwise, I like the rotation, though I am iffy on Jenks.


2- Cleveland Indians (-3)
2 - Martinez (.316/.391/.465), 28
3 - Blake (.282/.356/.479), 33
4 - Barfield (.280/.318/.423), 24
5 - Marte (.226/.287/.421), 23
6 - Peralta (.257/.323/.385), 24
7 - Dellucci (.292/.369/.530), 33
8 - Sizemore (.290/.375/.533), 24
9 - Nixon (.268/.373/.394), 33
(DH) Hafner (.308/.439/.629), 29

Rotation
Sabathia, L, 26
Westbrook, R, 29
Lee, L, 28
Byrd, R, 36
Sowers, L, 23

Closer: Joe Borowski

The Cleveland Indians were unlucky last year, and also had some defensive struggles, namely Victor Martinez, who threw out 18% of basestealers (don't get me started on how Brad Ausmas won the gold glove at catcher by not doing much better). Sizemore is an average CF (Rate2 of 99), and their middle infield (Peralta - 119 Rate2 at SS and Barfield 108 Rate2 and 2B) is actually quite good. Andy Marte should be at least average at third. Adding Borowski and Hernandez isn't a lot, but it does make the Cleveland bullpen look better, sadly.

Offensively, though, they're great in parts, and in their weaker parts, they can expect improvement because they're all under 25. Marte hitting .260 or more will make that lineup better, as will Hafner not getting hurt at the end of the year, and Barfield will likely improve his patience with more experience. Adding Trot Nixon and Dellucci gives them some guys who will get on base at a decent clip and hit the ball too, even if it means less Choo. This lineup also boasts 4 left-handers, 4 right-handers, and one switch-hitter, for what it's worth.

Division Champs - Detroit Tigers

2 - Pudge Rodriguez (.300/.332/.437), 35
3 - Sean Casey (.272/.336/.388), 32
4 - Polanco (.295/.329/.364), 31
5 - Inge (.253/.313/.463), 29
6 - Guillen (.320/.400/.519), 31
7 - Monroe (.255/.301/.482), 30
8 - Granderson (.260/.335/.438), 26
9 - Ordonez (.298/.350/.477), 33
DH - Sheffield (.298/.355/.450), 38

Rotation
Rogers, L, 42
Bonderman, R, 24
Robertson, L, 29
Maroth, L, 29
Verlander, R, 24

Closer: Todd Jones

This pitching staff is excellent, quite simply put. That is the name of the game, it seems. Bonderman and Verlander are two young fireballers, and Rodney and Zumaya make the bullpen look really nice.

The problem is that there are too many player that hit for decent average but their OPS isn't that much more than twice their batting average. Six, that's right, 6 members of this lineup had an OBP below .350 last year. Sean Casey may be a nice guy, but he's useless. Marcus Thames is working at first this spring, and he should eventually take the job (should in the sense of ideals, not in the sense of actuality).

A bit less luck defensively, though, and this team could be in trouble.