The Ned Colletti Transaction Log, 2006 season

2005-2006 Offseason - C+

Signings: B+
Rafael Furcal - SS, 3 years, $39 Million
This was his best move of the offseason, and didn't look that way at first. Furcal turned out to not only be a solid ballplayer, but also have a bit of power potential. While error-prone, his range makes him a very good defensive shortstop.

Grady Little
Tough to hire a manager, Colletti did pretty well here, having chosen a guy who doesn't do stupid stuff like make his players bunt needlessly, etc. Was not harmful and was funny, all one can ask from a manager.

Bill Mueller - 2 yrs, $9 million
Mueller should have raised red flags regarding his health, but he wasn't too expensive. At least he was used to the defensive position, but still, he played 110 games in 2004 because of his knees, and he ended up playing his last game in May or something. But at least his age didn't clog up 3rd base in front of talent in the minors.

Kenny Lofton - 1 yr, $4 million
Not a bad move, really. A transition player, and he was still useful offensively. His defense, though, was attrocious.

Nomar Garciaparra - 1 yr, $6 million
Nomar was a pretty good signing. Low risk at the price, and he turned out being a useful 3-hitter. Transition to first base that year helped to preserve him well.

Sandy Alomar Jr - 1 yr, $600k (?)
Not a good signing, the guy was in no shape to be a catcher, but he was a useful pinch hitter. Should have DL-ed or released him when Martin came up, but didn't.

Trades: C-
Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez for Andre Ethier
Trading for a prospect from Oakland? Turned out it was one of Colletti's better trades. Ethier is a corner guy, and not a big power guy, but he put up a 113 OPS+ as a rookie. Not bad.

Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll for Jae Seo and Tim Hamulack
This was not a good trade. Schmoll and Hamulack were both a wash, but while Sanchez was a useful reliever, Seo was a useless starter who had a career year the year before. I understand the gamble, but it did not work out. The Mets didn't benefit but so much, though, due to Sanchez's accident.

Chuck Tiffany and Edwin Jackson for Danys Baez and Lance Carter
BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD! Baez was overrated as a closer and collapsed, and Carter was already washed up. It's also not certain that these two pitchers are useless, either.

Non-Roster guys who made the team at some point: A
Takashi Saito - CL
Good signing. The Dodgers had tried getting him before, and he managed to bring the guy over. Not bad taking a chance on him, and he turned out saving the team's ass.

Joe Beimel - LHRP
Had a decent year despite his peripherals, thanks to a very high ground ball rate. Benefitted from being used well by Grady Little.

Ramon Martinez - UTIL
He could hit . . . for a little while.

Aaron Sele - RHP
Actually a decent starting pitcher. Unfortunately, he declined, particularly after going to the bullpen, but not bad for what he did as a starter.

Season Moves - C-
Navarro and Seo for Hendrickson and Hall
Seo is still a Devil Rays starter. Hall was released, got picked up by the White Sox, and his season is over due to surgery. Hendrickson is probably going to be a long reliever this year. Dioner Navarro, though, turned out to be useful, and he even threw out baserunners after LA traded him.

Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel, and $10 million for Dessens
The real question: is Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel worth Dessens and $3 million? The answer of course is no. Odalis should have just been released.

Sandy Alomar Jr for BJ Lamura
Not a bad trade, although it took to long to dump Alomar. Lamura looks like he might impress, even.

Cesar Izturis for Greg Maddux
Interesting trade. On the one hand, the Dodgers got a pitcher with a FIP under 4 and traded off a good glove/bad bat shortstop, swapping a gold glover for another gold glover. On the other hand, since they failed to offer Maddux arbitration, they got nothing. But still, they rid themselves of a player their offense could no longer afford and got Greg Maddux for him. Probably one of Colletti's best.

Joel Guzman for Julio Lugo
And then he ruined the Maddux trade with this one. Guzman had fallen out of favor with the LA brass, and Lugo was his chosen heir. Colletti got him just for the draft picks, again, indicating a low level of confidence in Guzman. Lugo played regularly for two weeks while Kent and Garciaparra were both injured, but afterwards was a bench player who was consistently useless. BOOOOO!

Jhonny Nunez for Marlon Anderson
Sometimes you get lucky, but the Dodgers got a friggin' leprechaun on this one. Seriously, Marlon Anderson was vital to the Dodgers September run, most notably as their 4th consecutive home run, with a shot to right field off Trevor Hoffman. Not bad, but this move may not look as good next year.

Overall, I give Colletti a C+ for his work. He had some nice work with the spring training invites, but more often than not he's a nightmare when trading. His best strategy is to offer a lot of money over a short period of time. Not bad with the non-roster guys either, I must say. He wasn't terrible, a little above average I guess, but I hold a higher standard, personally.

Groan

Well, the regular season is upon us, and one can certainly tell as Bill "Paragraph" Plaschke has a column out about Brad Penny. I'll leave it to the fine folks at Fire Joe Morgan to rip stuff apart, but there are a couple points I want to address.

"I don't want to leave," Penny said. "I want to finish what I started here." That's been his problem here. He has started, but never finished.

Well that's not entirely true; Brad Penny had a complete game for the Dodgers in 2005 against the Mets, as seen here, where he outdueled Pedro. Remember, it only takes one instance to disprove the word "never."

It is also worth noting that the connections to Penny's health are a bit more back door. Because he began relying on his fastball too much, he became more hittable or easier to hit a foul ball off of.

Another point in the Plaschke column:
He says he is sorry for each of last year's three infamous temper tantrums, and he has vowed to avoid them this year.

What were these:

1) He got pulled from a game after giving up 5 runs with a gigantic lead, and Grady wasn't about to let it slip away. It was the 5th inning, so that meant no win. But hey, the player's win-loss statistic is meaningless, so that's a stupid concern. Isn't that right, Bill? Oh wait, you think pitchers' win statistics matter? But you're a sports columnist, so you don't have any sense of responsibility? Ok, sure.

2) A poor umpiring call. Grady Little went to talk to Brad Penny, stepped off the mound to say a word to the umpires when they interrupted him, and then stepped back on to talk to Penny. Padres manager Bruce Bochy claimed that was a second trip to the mound, and so Penny should have only had one more batter, and the umpires actually bought such foolishness. Grady Little was ejected from this game, the only game of the season where that happened. Penny figured he was out of the game anyway, so he might as well get ejected while he was at it.
See DodgerBlues, and look for this picture, and it will remind you that Julio Lugo was also thrown out of this poorly officiated game. The score up top is wrong, though, and Penny did give up 6 runs.

3) Penny's supposedly most egregous error was in screaming at Kenny Lofton. To be fair, it is good to have a policy on this sort of thing, and Penny should not have screamed like he did, as he acknowledged. However, it is also true that Kenny Lofton was a nightmare defensively. In fact, the only way one can truly make sense of the Juan Pierre signing is in light of this incident. Pierre led the NL (and I think the majors too) in zone rating last year, meaning that if someone hit the ball to center field, he'd get it more often than anyone on average. Pierre was signed because he was the best defensive option in center field, unless you think Alfonso Soriano's arm outweighs his instincts (like 1 handed catches on routine flies). Even as he'll be a dropoff from Kenny Lofton at the plate, Pierre will probably make up at least some of that in center field. Penny has played with Pierre before too: back in Florida, where they won the World Series in 2003.

******

Now admittedly, Penny needs to cool down quite a bit, but so does Bill Plaschke.

Last one

AL EAST

Yanks
Sox
Blue Jays
O's
D-Rays

Unless everything collapses for Boston, the Orioles pitching staff and lineup depth pays off, and Tampa doesn't suddenly learn what success looks like. I'd put Baltimore as possible for a switch with Boston, but give them about a 3% chance of that, thinking optimistically. I do think the O's will win 75-80 at least.

But that's all this division gets.

JD Boo-Hoo

JD Drew, who disgracefully is ashamed of his excellent first name, also feels the need to strike back verbally at Ned Colletti, months after bolting for a big fat raise.

Saying it was a business decision, citing job security and not wanting to be traded as his primary reasons for employing the clause, Drew said he did not begin to consider the option until the 2006 season ended.

It strikes me as ludicrous for anyone who is guaranteed a contract to worry about job security. If anything, he was in a position to take over center field in Los Angeles so that James Loney or Matt Kemp could have taken the extra outfield spot. The fact is the Dodgers would not have been nearly as likely to retain Nomar Garciaparra had Drew stayed in LA, and Drew could have even gotten the 3-hitter job. When Bill Plaschke calls for Loney over Nomar, you know something's up.

As for whether or not he would have been traded, the time to trade Drew would have been at the deadline to Seattle for Adrian Beltre, but Colletti decided not to go down that road (good call) and got Wilson Betemit instead, even dumping Danys Baez in the process. As for trading him, think in Colletti terms: the Dodgers would give up a fair amount of power (their leader in homers and RBI last year) as well as a veteran with decent defense (although a declining arm).

Besides, LA was looking to up their pitching staff through free agency and trade for a power hitter, and they'd have to trade Drew for another outfielder. He wouldn't go within the division to Arizona nor to Anaheim, the Mets wouldn't have an attractive enough offering, the Marlins likely wouldn't want to double their payroll for him, the Orioles don't have anyone, the Red Sox wouldn't give up Pena for him, the Yankees wouldn't give up Matsui, the Blue Jays wouldn't budge, the Rangers had nobody. The Phillies? ha! I could see the Reds taking him for Dunn and someone else, but Dunn has one year before free agency. I could also see the Tigers going for him, because they are very weak in team OBP and have Monroe and Thames as potential trade targets, perhaps both. But other than Cincy or Detroit, I would have doubted it, and if Drew specified those teams, then no dice.

Drew opted out because he knew $11 million a year was a bargain on the market for the type of player he is (a poor man's Bobby Abreu). He's a good ball player, and the team OBP will miss him next year. I won't deny that the glossy pages didn't include my last paragraph. But if he's going to say he's offended that Colletti would attack his honesty, and add some bogus window-dressing reasons, then something is wrong.

In which I respectfully but critically remark on Sarah Morris's last Column

From her website as well as Dodgers.com, Sarah Morris wrote a bit on the Dodgers need for better defense. I comment on some excerpts:

Although many baseball fans often overlook the defense, it is mandatory to any baseball team. Poor defense can undermine a superior pitching performance, but good defense can bail out a struggling pitcher. Last year the Dodgers had middle-of-the-league defense, and this season the Dodgers should have an improved defense.

So far not bad, and full of her typical optimism.

The Dodgers and many of their fans worried about the starters’ endurance. This off-season Ned Colletti signed Randy Wolf and Jason Schmidt, who have averaged 200 innings a year, to help limit the trips to the bullpen. They will, but committing fewer errors should lead to shorter innings. When the team doesn’t make an error, a pitcher will have an easier time getting three outs with fewer than 16 pitches. An error gives the opposition an extra scoring opportunity.

A spectacular defensive play or an inning-ending double play can save the game for a team. Sometimes a pitcher allows the opposition to load the bases with no outs. If he can rely on his defense, he can let the batter hit the ball. A soft pop up and a double play end a potentially messy inning. A defensive play that makes everyone go, “Wow!” can prevent a multiple-run inning. Both an awesome play and an inning-ending double play can help the team’s morale and discourage the opposition.

She is partly right here, as failure to make an out on a ball in play can shorten innings. Making an error is a way of failing to make such an out. Another way, though, is in playing a player with poor range who can not reach a ball that a more nimble player may be able to get to, or having a catcher who can't throw out baserunners. It is also true that while errors can be declared arbitrarily, they do affect a pitcher mentally, and that pitcher's mental toughness affects his confidence as well as his ability to think straight. Kenny Lofton did not get "errors" for his adventures in the outfield last year, though, but that clearly had detrimental effects. While the wow factor affects other mental and emotional parts, a spectacular play does not differ a lot from a routine play. Still, though, nothing too objectionable yet.

The popularity of Moneyball has lessened the emphasis on having good defense. Though the book has some good ideas, putting less importance on defense was not one. The Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith prevented more runs with his amazing glove than he produced offensively. Many baseball people believe players can learn defense while they can’t learn to hit. Not many people can learn Gold Glove defense.

In the first place, the analysis in the first paragraph of the story, while somewhat intuitive, is part of the moneyball way of thinking. It's the same mentality that says you're overpaying if you sign Jeff Suppan for a 4 year deal, because defense is a part of what makes up pitching. The fact is that defense is just harder to quantify, and further, it is harder to determine the difference on the margins. Gold Glove defense is arbitrary, and particularly hard to learn since the award can be given to Brad Ausmus over Yadier Molina, and Edgar Renteria twice. Further, that a player won a gold glove does not guarantee good defense, as Kenny Lofton's 2006 was a decade past his last gold glove award.

In the National League, having a good defense is more important than it is in the American League. Without the designated hitter, the National League typically has lower scoring games than in the American League. Many baseball fans prefer the National League or “Old School” style of baseball when the teams must pitch, defend, and manufacture runs well to be successful.

To some extent, sure, since the marginal value of preventing a run would decrease if runs are easier to come by. But to the extent that pitchers do not strike out more batters in the American League, there are still as many balls in play, so you still need defense. The impact of the DH is not nearly as drastic as Sarah makes it out to be; rather, it just means that there's less for the manager to do because you never need to make a double switch. It is asinine, though, to suggest that pitching and defense don't matter in the AL, and it doesn't make sense in either case to give up outs for the sake of potentially "manufacturing runs."

In 2004, the Dodgers had the best defense in baseball. Dodger fans delighted watching the National League Western Divisional title team field. The double play duo of Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis made marvelous plays that made crowds gasp in delighted amazement. Adrian Beltre was a human vacuum cleaner at third base. The Dodgers’ superior defense helped them win many games and made other weaknesses of the team seem unimportant.

In 2004 the Dodgers had the best fielding percentage in baseball, but Izzy also led by a good margin in Zone Rating at short. Beltre is clearly one of the better defensive third basemen in the game. The main weakness for LA that year was in starting pitching, as Beltre was a great hitter in 2004, and Shawn Green was still a little useful, and LA had Bradley too. The rotation consisted of Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez, Jose Lima, help! and help!. Brad Penny promptly hurt himself after being traded for, and Derek Lowe would not arrive until the next season. The Dodgers also had a healthy Gagne along with the likes of Mota and Brazoban to set him up. That defense did help the starting pitching, admittedly, until the Dodgers reached the playoffs and gave two starts to Odalis Perez

The Dodgers lost J.D. Drew, but they won’t miss him defensively. Both Andre Ethier and Luis Gonzalez are better outfielders than Drew is. With one year of major league experience, Ethier shouldn’t make as many mental errors as he did. Gonzalez is still fast, and this will enable him to cover much ground. Jason Repko, an excellent defensive outfielder, should be the fourth outfielder, and Dodger fans should expect to see him as a defensive replacement in the later innings.

Repko will probably be traded because Pierre's the kind of guy who will play 162, and Repko is most useful as a CF with his arm and range. Drew is better defensively than Ethier, but I will admit he had a tendency to completely lose his mind on occasion. I saw a game where LA played in RFK last year, and Drew completely botched the first ball that came to him, misplaying an out (maybe a single) into a double. I have seen two Dodger games in person, and JD Drew went 0-5 in each of them.

Predictions for 2007 - AL Central

Now this is the hard one. This will require more thought than any other division I have had to consider. Here goes.

New players
Tigers: Gary Sheffield
White Sox: Gavin Floyd
Injuns: Josh Barfield, David Delucci, Trot Nixon, Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez
Twins: Jeff Cirillo
Royals: Gil Meche, Octavio Dotel, Brian Bannister

Predicted order of finish

5th Place: Kansas City Royals (-20)

Lineup:
2 - Buck (.245/.306/.396), 26
3 - Shealy (.277/.333/.450), 27
4 - Grudzielanek (.297/.331/.409), 36
5 - Teahen (.290/.357/.517), 25
6 - Beroa (.234/.259/.333), 29
7 - Brown (.287/.358/.457), 32
8 - DeJesus (.295/.364/.446), 27
9 - Sanders (.246/.304/.425), 39
DH - Sweeney (.258/.349/.438), 33

Rotation
Gil Meche (R), 28
Odalis Perez (L), 29
Luke Hudson (R), 29
Jorge de la Rosa (L), 26
Brian Bannister (R), 26

Closer: Octavio Dotel

There is good news for this team. First, their offseason moves did help the team, as they added not only Meche, who while not great will be an improvement, but also Bannister. Also good is that they should be seeing improvement from young bright spot Mark Teahen as well as a rebound from last year from Mike Sweeney (who hit about .040 below career average, which of course dragged his OPS down by about .080 from career) and likely one for Odalis Perez too (who had an awful year last year, but should prove competent once again at some point).

The bad news is that they're still in a tough division. Had they been lucky enough to have gotten Joel Guzman in a trade when the Dodgers dumped him, they could have plugged in a piece of their lineup, rather than the near pitcher they have with Beroa's .592 OPS. Reggie Sanders was a waste of money too; trying with some of the journeymen the Dodgers picked up would have been cheaper and less hazardous. Also, their rotation still isn't all that good, but time will tell I guess. Maybe Gil Meche will finally come through. But don't count on it.


4 - Minnesota Twins (-8)
lineup
2- Mauer (.327/.429/.507), 24
3- Morneau (.321/.375/.559) , 25
4 - Castillo (.296/.358/.370), 31
5 - Punto (.290/.352/.373), 29
6 - Bartlett (.309/.367/.393), 27
7 - White (.246/.276/.345), 35
8 - Hunter (.278/.336/.490), 31
9 - Cuddyer (.284/.362/.504), 28
DH - Kubel (.241/.279/.386), 24

Rotation:
Johan Santana, L, 28
Boof Bonser, R, 25
Carlos Silva, R, 28
Matt Garza, R, 23
Glen Perkins, L, 24

Closer: Joe Nathan

Liriano was 11-3 with a 1.92 ERA as a starter. That's good, but he's out after Tommy John next year. While Santana and Bonser make the front of the rotation look good, the rest is less certain. The lineup features two guys with OBP under .300 last year, but 6 over .350, including Mauer's delightful .429. There is upside to Kubel, who has a small sample size and is only 24. At 5'11" and 200lb, you expect him to have some pop in his bat. He will probably be the biggest difference maker, other than a rebound from Rondell While (though that will likely be cancelled by other players regressing). It will be a tight division again, but the Twins get the shaft this time around.

3- Chicago White Sox (-5)
lineup:
2 - Pierzynski (.295/.333/.436), 30
3 - Konerko (.313/.381/.551), 31
4 - Iguchi (.281/.352/.422), 32
5 - Crede (.283/.323/.506), 29
6 - Uribe (.235/.257/.441), 28
7 - Podsednik (.261/.330/.353), 31
8 - Anderson (.225/.290/.359), 25
9 - Dye (.315/.385/.622), 33
DH - Thome (.288/.416/.598), 36

Rotation
Jose Contreras (R), 35
Mark Buehrle (L), 28
John Garland (R), 27
Javier Vasquez (R), 30
Gavin Floyd (R), 24

Closer: Bobby Jenks

The trade involving Freddie Garcia seemed weird. That and Ozzie Guillen wants to bunt more. OBP is problematic in this lineup; 5 players last year were below .350. Granted, they do have power, and they can probably count on Anderson to get a little better, but still. Juan Uribe, the out machine, couldn't get indicted so they have to deal with him making Juan Pierre look like Bobby Abreu. Otherwise, I like the rotation, though I am iffy on Jenks.


2- Cleveland Indians (-3)
2 - Martinez (.316/.391/.465), 28
3 - Blake (.282/.356/.479), 33
4 - Barfield (.280/.318/.423), 24
5 - Marte (.226/.287/.421), 23
6 - Peralta (.257/.323/.385), 24
7 - Dellucci (.292/.369/.530), 33
8 - Sizemore (.290/.375/.533), 24
9 - Nixon (.268/.373/.394), 33
(DH) Hafner (.308/.439/.629), 29

Rotation
Sabathia, L, 26
Westbrook, R, 29
Lee, L, 28
Byrd, R, 36
Sowers, L, 23

Closer: Joe Borowski

The Cleveland Indians were unlucky last year, and also had some defensive struggles, namely Victor Martinez, who threw out 18% of basestealers (don't get me started on how Brad Ausmas won the gold glove at catcher by not doing much better). Sizemore is an average CF (Rate2 of 99), and their middle infield (Peralta - 119 Rate2 at SS and Barfield 108 Rate2 and 2B) is actually quite good. Andy Marte should be at least average at third. Adding Borowski and Hernandez isn't a lot, but it does make the Cleveland bullpen look better, sadly.

Offensively, though, they're great in parts, and in their weaker parts, they can expect improvement because they're all under 25. Marte hitting .260 or more will make that lineup better, as will Hafner not getting hurt at the end of the year, and Barfield will likely improve his patience with more experience. Adding Trot Nixon and Dellucci gives them some guys who will get on base at a decent clip and hit the ball too, even if it means less Choo. This lineup also boasts 4 left-handers, 4 right-handers, and one switch-hitter, for what it's worth.

Division Champs - Detroit Tigers

2 - Pudge Rodriguez (.300/.332/.437), 35
3 - Sean Casey (.272/.336/.388), 32
4 - Polanco (.295/.329/.364), 31
5 - Inge (.253/.313/.463), 29
6 - Guillen (.320/.400/.519), 31
7 - Monroe (.255/.301/.482), 30
8 - Granderson (.260/.335/.438), 26
9 - Ordonez (.298/.350/.477), 33
DH - Sheffield (.298/.355/.450), 38

Rotation
Rogers, L, 42
Bonderman, R, 24
Robertson, L, 29
Maroth, L, 29
Verlander, R, 24

Closer: Todd Jones

This pitching staff is excellent, quite simply put. That is the name of the game, it seems. Bonderman and Verlander are two young fireballers, and Rodney and Zumaya make the bullpen look really nice.

The problem is that there are too many player that hit for decent average but their OPS isn't that much more than twice their batting average. Six, that's right, 6 members of this lineup had an OBP below .350 last year. Sean Casey may be a nice guy, but he's useless. Marcus Thames is working at first this spring, and he should eventually take the job (should in the sense of ideals, not in the sense of actuality).

A bit less luck defensively, though, and this team could be in trouble.

Happy March

Indeed, the greatest month of the year.

Don't believe me? Ask this guy.

Or this guy.