Starters definitely coming back:
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Clayton Kershaw
at this point, Billingsley can be though of as the ace of the staff, except by Bill Plaschke, who will hold his NLCS performance against him for the next couple years. Kuroda turned out to be a rather pleasant surprise - doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but still has good command of the strike zone and works efficiently. Kershaw showed some potential, and as he develops his changeup and slider/cutter he will climb his way up the rotation.
Potential free agent Dodgers:
Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Greg Maddux
I would have expected Lowe to have been traded, but instead the Dodgers face the possibility of only getting two draft picks for him. Lowe has been good every year of his contract, getting his groundball outs, having good command of the strike zone, and not being homer prone. If the Dodgers could only score runs when he starts. Lowe will probably be looking for at least 3 years/$40 million, which might be a lot to pay a guy who'll be 36 next year.
Penny's a tougher case. He's got quite the upside, but he's an injury risk. And a really crappy pitcher when injured. It's tough to say if he'll come back healthy, although he's shown that he can (see 2005), and it might be worthwhile. Penny gets paid $2,000,000 if the Dodgers buy out his option, so keeping the opening day starter is a matter of $7.25 million. Not a bad deal, compared to say Randy Wolf.
Maddux is a candidate for retirement, although he still seems to have a little something left. But I do mean a little something - he's shown that he can get hit pretty hard last year, when his homer rate spiked. Still, he could probably be had for around $8 million; I could see the Dodgers offering him arbitration and him accepting, or even going for a lower offer with LA.
Free Agents on the Market:
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Jon Garland
Pedro Martinez
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Oliver Perez
The Dodgers will make an offer to Sabathia, but they will not get him because he will make Kevin Brown look cheap. They will be relieved when he tears his rotator cuff in May while wearing the pinstripes in the Bronx. AJ Burnett is an injury waiting to happen, but is still good when healthy - I wouldn't be surprised if he matches JD Drew's Boston deal. I can't help but think he'd remind Colletti too much of JD Drew, though. Ben Sheets would be a fun pick - he's just as goofy as Manny Ramirez, except that he's just as injury prone as Nomar Garciaparra. I wouldn't give him more than a one year deal, and I don't know if any other GM would either. Garland might be intriguing, especially since Anaheim traded for him last year, but I wouldn't expect anything.
Pedro Martinez would be a nice signing - get him to come back where he began his career, and where Tommy Lasorda said he wouldn't be any good, the dumbass that he is. Maybe the Dodgers trade him at the deadline for a crappy second baseman. Either way, he's probably worth about $8 million or so on the free agent market now. Jamie Moyer is older than dirt and hasn't played for the Dodgers yet. Mark Mulder is intriguing, in a Jason Schmidt kind of way. Finally, Oliver Perez has nice strikeout abilities and isn't that old yet, so he might be a sensible signing, I could see him going for about 4 years $45 million in this market.
In House:
James McDonald
Hong-Chi Kuo
Eric Stults
Scott Elbert
McDonald even got the support of Bill Plaschke to be the #5 starter next year, and he'd be a good pick. Granted, he hasn't pitched much more than 150 innings in a season, but the 5th starter can be skipped, and Kershaw can probably go for up to 200, especially under the watchful eye and quick hook of Joe Torre (who knows that after 100 pitches, pitchers don't last long). McDonald's minor league peripherals suggest that the solid player we saw was no fluke, and as Billingsley showed us, minor league K rates sometimes take time to translate to the bigs. Kuo is an option as a starter, especially if one feels it is necessary for a lefty starter, but he is also a very good bullpen option, good against left and right handed hitters. Stults is that 6th starter guy that's useful but you don't know how long you want to keep him, particularly when he gives up as many homers as he does. I think McDonald will be in the rotation by the end of the season, although I don't know if he'll start in the pen first. Working as a reliever helped Billingsley get into a rhythym as a strikeout guy rather than a lucky RISP guy, but McDonald could be fine with either - guess it depends how many major league innings to subject him to. Scott Elbert isn't quite Greg Miller, but he really needs to stop walking people so much, and might need time in AAA to get that down.
My Rotation:
1) Chad Billingsley (R)
2) Hiroki Kuroda (R)
3) Oliver Perez (L)
4) Clayton Kershaw (L)
5) James McDonald (R)
Relievers
Definitely coming back:
Jonathan Broxton
Hong-Chi Kuo
Ramon Troncoso
Cory Wade
Scott Elbert
Broxton is the closer, who is prone to an occasional misgiving, but generally gets the job done. But let's face it, he's better than Eric Gagne is now. Kuo will likely stay in the pen as quite the fixture for a lefty power pitcher. If he's healthy, he is awesome. If he's not, we might not see him the rest of the year. Wade was lucky and Troncoso unlucky on balls in play, but both exhibited a good K/BB and acceptable HR rate. Wade struck out fewer than Troncoso's batter an inning, but he also walked only 3 more batters than Troncoso in 33 1/3 more innings. And while Troncoso might get luckier next year, it is also worth noting that Wade had the much better career minor league numbers (K/BB over 4!). Wade is 3 months younger. Nonetheless, both are good pitchers. Finally, Scott Elbert didn't have a pretty major league debut, but he's back from injury, and with a bit of work on his control could probably be another good left-handed pitcher. I'd expect him to start in the minors to get his control down.
Uncertain for next year:
Takashi Saito
Saito might retire, because he's old and his injury proneness is catching up with him. On the other hand, he might also want to keep pitching and being a dominant member of the pen. As it is, he might still be the closer next year, because when healthy, he's got a decent fastball with great breaking stuff.
Free Agents:
Joe Beimel
Scott Proctor
See you proctor. Beimel will be missed by Troy from West Virginia, unless the Dodgers decide to keep him for some reason. Still, not a bad run for Beimel, though good riddance for Proctor.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Outfield talk
Now that I blew predicting the NLCS, let's plan for next year.
I think the infield has been discussed fairly well, but it's plain to see that there's not a whole lot of room to improve there, short of a trade. Every so often one will see things about an Adrian Beltre trade, but the wild card out there is a Chipper Jones trade. Beltre is probably the better option because he'll be more durable at a position where the Dodgers don't have depth, he's the superior defender, and he won't cost as much. Chipper Jones could be a Manny-like acquisition, you would get him to win now, but you don't know if you'll hold onto him. While Jones did say that he grew up a Dodger fan, one would think he'd want to bolster his HOF case as a one team player on the Braves (and he definitely has trade veto powers).
So, let's look at the outfield and later on, the rotation.
Outfield
Needs: Left Fielder
Currently have - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Trade Bait - Juan Pierre
DFA Candidate - Andruw Jones. Or he could magically get better and be the starting CF. After all, this is when he's supposed to play for his big contract. I wouldn't expect him to be in LA unless he's on the DL all season or the Dodgers trade for Chipper.
In house - Jason Repko, Delwyn Young. Neither is probably where you'd want a starting outfielder to be, particularly given the state of the infield, although Repko is capable of having productive months when given regular playing time (see April 2006), though in a small sample, that's not too hard.
In the wings - Xavier Paul might see some time mid-season
Free Agents by likelihood- Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr
Ned Colletti would totally pull the trigger on signing Griffey if the Chisox don't pick up his option. Otherwise, it seems like the Dodgers won't pay big time for Ramirez, at least not in years. Colletti hasn't given anyone over 30 more than a 3 year contract, to his credit. I think the Dodgers offer Manny $85 million over 3 years, and that could do it.
Griffey could be had for one or two years at $10 million per. Abreu would go for 2-3 years at about $12 million per. Pat Burrell will get paid more than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn will probably not sign until Ramirez does though; a team that wants Ramirez would likely settle for Dunn. While it would be a very unlikely move for Colletti, I could see him doing it because Dunn's been a 40 HR guy the past 5 years and we'd be taking him from AZ, a double whammy. Dunn will likely get $80 million over 4 years, Burrell might get a bit more.
Outgoing
Pierre isn't much for bait, but he does want a trade, and he's probably still useful to someone. LA will have to eat much of his salary (probably about $20 million worth over the remaining 3 years), but one has to think that he could fit into the NL East. Philadelphia would suffer picking him up for Burrell, although he'd have some nice range in left field, but that would also put another left-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup. The Mets would make sense except they already have Endy Chavez, although outfield depth would be nice. The Nationals have Dukes, Kearns and Milledge, who are better in that outfield, so no thanks (although a Pierre for Kearns swap is believable, especially if the Nats save $10 or 12 million, although there is no substance to that, I'm purely speculating). The Braves possibly, if they need someone to be a stopgap.
I think Pierre gets traded for Endy Chavez and a 25 year old guy in AA, with LA eating $15 million. I think then that the Dodgers stick with Andruw Jones and hope for the best, as Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell will get offers ahead of Manny, the Chisox pick up Griffey's option, and Abreu goes somewhere random.
I think the infield has been discussed fairly well, but it's plain to see that there's not a whole lot of room to improve there, short of a trade. Every so often one will see things about an Adrian Beltre trade, but the wild card out there is a Chipper Jones trade. Beltre is probably the better option because he'll be more durable at a position where the Dodgers don't have depth, he's the superior defender, and he won't cost as much. Chipper Jones could be a Manny-like acquisition, you would get him to win now, but you don't know if you'll hold onto him. While Jones did say that he grew up a Dodger fan, one would think he'd want to bolster his HOF case as a one team player on the Braves (and he definitely has trade veto powers).
So, let's look at the outfield and later on, the rotation.
Outfield
Needs: Left Fielder
Currently have - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Trade Bait - Juan Pierre
DFA Candidate - Andruw Jones. Or he could magically get better and be the starting CF. After all, this is when he's supposed to play for his big contract. I wouldn't expect him to be in LA unless he's on the DL all season or the Dodgers trade for Chipper.
In house - Jason Repko, Delwyn Young. Neither is probably where you'd want a starting outfielder to be, particularly given the state of the infield, although Repko is capable of having productive months when given regular playing time (see April 2006), though in a small sample, that's not too hard.
In the wings - Xavier Paul might see some time mid-season
Free Agents by likelihood- Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr
Ned Colletti would totally pull the trigger on signing Griffey if the Chisox don't pick up his option. Otherwise, it seems like the Dodgers won't pay big time for Ramirez, at least not in years. Colletti hasn't given anyone over 30 more than a 3 year contract, to his credit. I think the Dodgers offer Manny $85 million over 3 years, and that could do it.
Griffey could be had for one or two years at $10 million per. Abreu would go for 2-3 years at about $12 million per. Pat Burrell will get paid more than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn will probably not sign until Ramirez does though; a team that wants Ramirez would likely settle for Dunn. While it would be a very unlikely move for Colletti, I could see him doing it because Dunn's been a 40 HR guy the past 5 years and we'd be taking him from AZ, a double whammy. Dunn will likely get $80 million over 4 years, Burrell might get a bit more.
Outgoing
Pierre isn't much for bait, but he does want a trade, and he's probably still useful to someone. LA will have to eat much of his salary (probably about $20 million worth over the remaining 3 years), but one has to think that he could fit into the NL East. Philadelphia would suffer picking him up for Burrell, although he'd have some nice range in left field, but that would also put another left-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup. The Mets would make sense except they already have Endy Chavez, although outfield depth would be nice. The Nationals have Dukes, Kearns and Milledge, who are better in that outfield, so no thanks (although a Pierre for Kearns swap is believable, especially if the Nats save $10 or 12 million, although there is no substance to that, I'm purely speculating). The Braves possibly, if they need someone to be a stopgap.
I think Pierre gets traded for Endy Chavez and a 25 year old guy in AA, with LA eating $15 million. I think then that the Dodgers stick with Andruw Jones and hope for the best, as Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell will get offers ahead of Manny, the Chisox pick up Griffey's option, and Abreu goes somewhere random.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Parallel Universe
Let's say we didn't read media reports out of Boston or listen to Curt Schilling's whining. Let's see then, how else me might determine why the Red Sox would trade Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay. Further, let's assume everyone is rational.
Ramirez is 35, and Boston can pay him $20 million a year if they keep him. If not, they get two draft picks in the offseason. Boston is in a win-now situation, and since the Yankees will be bidding for all the good free agents this offseason and the Rays have built a good club, Boston needs to hold onto their core. But this part of their core is aging and is at risk to be injured and have his performance decline.
To replace him in that position, they would be looking at someone who could stay there for a long time. This would be someone younger who projects to have a longer career, maybe a power/speed guy, maybe someone who can be really good defensively. Jason Bay would fit that description nicely, and he's already locked into a contract where he would make less than half of what Manny would make as he reaches his prime.
Pittsburgh is not going to take Manny for Bay, because they don't have that kind of money. Besides, Pittsburgh isn't ready to contend; they still need a pitching staff and could stand to bolster their lineup a bit. A rental of Manny Ramirez would not help them in the postseason, or even to be a winning ballclub. So, thanks, but no thanks. Pittsburgh wants to do what Baltimore did, get 4 or 5 young players for one star player.
Boston does not want to trade their top young players, but they're willing to give up a left fielder for a left fielder. Pittsburgh will not be satisfied with the young players Boston can deliver, so they need someone to take Ramirez. Enter the Dodgers.
Ned Colletti knows what he's doing - LaRoche has been injured and it would be too risky to expose the extent of the damage from that injury, even though his 2008 minor league numbers lack the power he showed the previous two seasons. Sunk costs as they are, Colletti wanted to sell LaRoche as high as possible, and at the same time, he knew that Frank McCourt would throw him out on his ass if he didn't land someone good. This deal comes across to him and naturally it looks like a no-brainer. A guy who's had shoulder and hand injuries possibly destroy his shot at being a good hitting 3rd baseman for a shot at getting to the postseason with one of the best hitters in the game. Naturally, he pulled the trigger, and made the boss man even happier by all the extra revenue that comes in thanks to the new superstar. In his position, he even insists that Boston chips in $7 million to pay for the rest of 2008 for Manny. No problem, says Boston, because they'll save $11 million next year by having Bay instead.
Makes sense for everyone. But what about those media reports? Well, Boston had to see it coming, and they like to burn players as they leave, but then again, so do the Braves. It makes it easier for the fans to swallow. Also, reporters like to sell the gossip stories, because those sell papers. And that's just the way the Boston media does things. But the media storyline is probably just a cover for what was actually going on - Boston and Pittsburgh made moves for the long term, and LA made the best move they could, which does nothing in the long term, but a lot in the short term.
Ramirez is 35, and Boston can pay him $20 million a year if they keep him. If not, they get two draft picks in the offseason. Boston is in a win-now situation, and since the Yankees will be bidding for all the good free agents this offseason and the Rays have built a good club, Boston needs to hold onto their core. But this part of their core is aging and is at risk to be injured and have his performance decline.
To replace him in that position, they would be looking at someone who could stay there for a long time. This would be someone younger who projects to have a longer career, maybe a power/speed guy, maybe someone who can be really good defensively. Jason Bay would fit that description nicely, and he's already locked into a contract where he would make less than half of what Manny would make as he reaches his prime.
Pittsburgh is not going to take Manny for Bay, because they don't have that kind of money. Besides, Pittsburgh isn't ready to contend; they still need a pitching staff and could stand to bolster their lineup a bit. A rental of Manny Ramirez would not help them in the postseason, or even to be a winning ballclub. So, thanks, but no thanks. Pittsburgh wants to do what Baltimore did, get 4 or 5 young players for one star player.
Boston does not want to trade their top young players, but they're willing to give up a left fielder for a left fielder. Pittsburgh will not be satisfied with the young players Boston can deliver, so they need someone to take Ramirez. Enter the Dodgers.
Ned Colletti knows what he's doing - LaRoche has been injured and it would be too risky to expose the extent of the damage from that injury, even though his 2008 minor league numbers lack the power he showed the previous two seasons. Sunk costs as they are, Colletti wanted to sell LaRoche as high as possible, and at the same time, he knew that Frank McCourt would throw him out on his ass if he didn't land someone good. This deal comes across to him and naturally it looks like a no-brainer. A guy who's had shoulder and hand injuries possibly destroy his shot at being a good hitting 3rd baseman for a shot at getting to the postseason with one of the best hitters in the game. Naturally, he pulled the trigger, and made the boss man even happier by all the extra revenue that comes in thanks to the new superstar. In his position, he even insists that Boston chips in $7 million to pay for the rest of 2008 for Manny. No problem, says Boston, because they'll save $11 million next year by having Bay instead.
Makes sense for everyone. But what about those media reports? Well, Boston had to see it coming, and they like to burn players as they leave, but then again, so do the Braves. It makes it easier for the fans to swallow. Also, reporters like to sell the gossip stories, because those sell papers. And that's just the way the Boston media does things. But the media storyline is probably just a cover for what was actually going on - Boston and Pittsburgh made moves for the long term, and LA made the best move they could, which does nothing in the long term, but a lot in the short term.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Well, That Was a Shocker
Ok, so it turns out that the NLCS will be Dodgers-Phillies, but LA swept (I did correctly call Phillies in 4 for the first round). The coverage of the Dodgers and Cubs seems to say almost entirely not so much that the Dodgers were good as that the Cubs were just awful. After all, they had the better regular season record, they had the better defense, etc. But as Billy Beane can tell you, the postseason is a crapshoot.
To be fair though, the Dodgers were a better team than their record suggests. Furcal replacing Berroa is huge at short, and Brad Penny and Andruw Jones are both not on the postseason roster. Manny was not with the team all year, nor was Casey Blake. DeWitt has shown himself to be a streaky player, and currently he's on a good one. Juan Pierre has been a bench player since Manny's acquisition. Scott Proctor stopped getting the ball in key situations - now that goes to Kuo, Broxton, Wade. To be fair, Chan Ho Park gave up the long ball and should have had a higher ERA, but that's all for that part. The Cubs, on the other hand, had a couple of guys having career years - 21 homers for Mark Derosa, an effective year as a starter for Ryan Dempster, for example.
LA faces what was one of the best offenses during the regular season. But remember, they already took on the best of the regular season. And while the Dodgers pitching will be tough to beat, Philly's staff is no group of slouches. When the two teams met earlier in the season, one team was having a good streak while the other had a poor one, resulting in two four game sweeps by the home team. Let's look head to head:
Starting Pitchers (based on NLDS):
Lowe vs Hamels
Billingsley vs Myers
Moyer vs Kuroda
Blanton vs Maddux (?)
Personally I'd like to see Moyer vs Maddux, a combined 87 years old. Wild cards to start are the two left-handed K men, Kershaw and Kuo. Kuo is a health question mark, but he's got excellent stuff and he could come in and surprise Philadelphia. Kershaw could do the job as well, but it seems like the Dodgers would be foolish not to use at least one left-handed starter against the Phillies. The edge here has to go to LA, though, particularly if we see Kershaw.
One thing that surprised me was that LA didn't use half of their pitching staff. We saw Wade, Broxton, Saito and Maddux out of the bullpen, but no Beimel, no Kershaw, no McDonald, no Park. I would expect to see more of some of the guys who didn't get playing time, so Torre can use some new tricks in the NLCS.
Outfield
Manny vs Burrell
Kemp vs Victorino
Ethier vs Werth
Manny beats Burrell, although Pat the bat is not known for his glove, he is a better hitter than Soriano. Ethier edges Werth, because he can hit for average. Kemp edges Victorino because he's got a bit more pop than the Flyin Hawaiian.
Infield
Loney vs Howard
DeWitt vs Utley
Furcal vs Rollins
Blake vs Feliz
Howard edges Loney because first base defense only matters so much. DeWitt is pretty good, but Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball. Furcal edges Rollins, who did not deserve a single award he won last year - Furcal is the rangier shortstop that gets on base more. And Casey Blake doesn't have Pedro Feliz's glove, but Pedro Feliz doesn't get to swing his glove at the plate, even though he probably needs to to hit anything.
Carlos Ruiz has nothing on Russell Martin.
If you look at who's playing over their head, a couple players come to mind on each team still. Ethier's got that BABIP thing going, so if he's hot he's good, if not, then, um, ugh. Not much else for LA. Brad Lidge is not as good as he was this year - no way he only gives up 2 homers in 69.3 innings pitched - and only 1 at home.
I'll say Dodgers in 6 on this one.
To be fair though, the Dodgers were a better team than their record suggests. Furcal replacing Berroa is huge at short, and Brad Penny and Andruw Jones are both not on the postseason roster. Manny was not with the team all year, nor was Casey Blake. DeWitt has shown himself to be a streaky player, and currently he's on a good one. Juan Pierre has been a bench player since Manny's acquisition. Scott Proctor stopped getting the ball in key situations - now that goes to Kuo, Broxton, Wade. To be fair, Chan Ho Park gave up the long ball and should have had a higher ERA, but that's all for that part. The Cubs, on the other hand, had a couple of guys having career years - 21 homers for Mark Derosa, an effective year as a starter for Ryan Dempster, for example.
LA faces what was one of the best offenses during the regular season. But remember, they already took on the best of the regular season. And while the Dodgers pitching will be tough to beat, Philly's staff is no group of slouches. When the two teams met earlier in the season, one team was having a good streak while the other had a poor one, resulting in two four game sweeps by the home team. Let's look head to head:
Starting Pitchers (based on NLDS):
Lowe vs Hamels
Billingsley vs Myers
Moyer vs Kuroda
Blanton vs Maddux (?)
Personally I'd like to see Moyer vs Maddux, a combined 87 years old. Wild cards to start are the two left-handed K men, Kershaw and Kuo. Kuo is a health question mark, but he's got excellent stuff and he could come in and surprise Philadelphia. Kershaw could do the job as well, but it seems like the Dodgers would be foolish not to use at least one left-handed starter against the Phillies. The edge here has to go to LA, though, particularly if we see Kershaw.
One thing that surprised me was that LA didn't use half of their pitching staff. We saw Wade, Broxton, Saito and Maddux out of the bullpen, but no Beimel, no Kershaw, no McDonald, no Park. I would expect to see more of some of the guys who didn't get playing time, so Torre can use some new tricks in the NLCS.
Outfield
Manny vs Burrell
Kemp vs Victorino
Ethier vs Werth
Manny beats Burrell, although Pat the bat is not known for his glove, he is a better hitter than Soriano. Ethier edges Werth, because he can hit for average. Kemp edges Victorino because he's got a bit more pop than the Flyin Hawaiian.
Infield
Loney vs Howard
DeWitt vs Utley
Furcal vs Rollins
Blake vs Feliz
Howard edges Loney because first base defense only matters so much. DeWitt is pretty good, but Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball. Furcal edges Rollins, who did not deserve a single award he won last year - Furcal is the rangier shortstop that gets on base more. And Casey Blake doesn't have Pedro Feliz's glove, but Pedro Feliz doesn't get to swing his glove at the plate, even though he probably needs to to hit anything.
Carlos Ruiz has nothing on Russell Martin.
If you look at who's playing over their head, a couple players come to mind on each team still. Ethier's got that BABIP thing going, so if he's hot he's good, if not, then, um, ugh. Not much else for LA. Brad Lidge is not as good as he was this year - no way he only gives up 2 homers in 69.3 innings pitched - and only 1 at home.
I'll say Dodgers in 6 on this one.
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