Friday, December 19, 2008

The last 6 spots on the Roster

As it is, the Dodgers have 6 more spots to fill on the 25 man roster. Here's who's already there:

SP(3): Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw
RP (4): Jonathan Broxton, Corey Wade, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chi Kuo,
C (1): Russell Martin
INF (6): James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Mark Loretta, Delwyn Young
OF (5): Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Jason Repko


There is a vacancy for one more infielder, a backup catcher, two relief pitchers (late inning short reliever and long reliever), and two starting pitchers.

Backup Catcher
This is not an important position, except that Russell Martin will be driven into the ground by age 30 if he doesn't get a good one. We are constantly told Martin is tough and durable, but he still plays like he's out of gas in September. Martin has a career .806 OPS, which by month breaks down to .876/.814/.825/.816/.767/.755

That performance is indicated in the above chart. Basically, he's a superstar in April, and a natural pick for the all-star team, but the lack of a good backup brings him down. That and the stupidity of the manager. Our best options are as follows:

Paul LoDuca - familiar, kind of a light hitter, implicated in Mitchell Report
Pudge Rodriguez - excellent defender, no plate discipline, would cost money, might not accept backup job, but would get plenty of PT
Michael Barrett - only a couple years removed from being a good catcher. Suddenly lost ability to hit for average. Still only 32, though he's been in the majors for a decade. Probably a good pick.
Greg Zaun - about 25% CS, power fading, good for a .340 OBP

Of those options, I'd go with Barrett. He'd look to pick up more playing time later in the season, and he's a good enough hitter that Martin would possibly only catch 120 games, which would make him a better hitter.

Two Starting Pitchers
The expectation here is one guy who could be counted on to last a whole season and one injury prone guy to make room for McDonald to start. I'll also predict the Dodgers sign one guy to a 1 year deal (possibly with an option) and one guy with a multi year deal. For the injury prone guy, I present the following candidates:
Pedro Martinez - all time leader in ERA+
Randy Johnson - all time leader in height
Ben Sheets - all time leader in being a fun interview
Curt Schilling - Joe Torre's nemesis from 2001, 2004, 2007

And here are some guys who seem like they could last a decent amount of time:
Andy Pettitte - Roger Clemens' buddy
Derek Lowe - underpaid the last 4 years, prepare to overpay him
Jon Garland - delightfully medicore starter, but good for 200 IP

My choice would be a 3 year, $45 million deal for Lowe and a 1 year, $10 million deal for Pedro (with $10 million team option or $2 million buyout).

Relief Pitchers
I don't think there's any reason to try to go for anyone other than an in-house option here. McDonald as the 7th inning guy and Stults as the long man seems like the most logical thing.

25th man
I go with Chin-Lung Hu. I think the guy could be useful as a pinch hitter or late inning replacement.

As for getting Manny Ramirez, I'd rule it out unless we trade Juan Pierre and/or Andruw Jones. After all, the Yankees are looking for a CF...

Monday, December 1, 2008

Free Agent Pitchers

Closers
Top picks
Francisco Rodriguez
Brian Fuentes
Brad Lidge
These guys have a good shot at being good over the course of their new contracts. Fuentes, because he's older might get a 2 or 3 year deal, but expect 4 years for Lidge and K-Rod. Lidge will command a premium after a great comeback season as he returned to dominance and threw the last pitch of the World Series, although he did take quite a hit from Ryan Howard immediately after.

Runners up
Jason Isringhausen
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera

These guys have been successful closers forever, which is the problem. Mariano stays in NY, no question, don't know why he's on the list. Nathan will be an attractive grab. Isringhausen is a bit of an injury risk, but he's not going to go for too long a deal, and he's still good.

Um, no
Eric Gagne
TrevorHoffman
Todd Jones

Hoffman and Jones are too old. Gagne has lost his dominance, but will still command an $8 million salary, probably from Ed Wade.

Lefty Relievers
A category for adding depth, but not spending more than like $3 million. This includes:
Joe Beimel, Alan Embree, Scott Eyre, Aaron Fultz, Will Ohman, Darren Oliver

Lefty Starters
Grand Prize
CC Sabathia

He'll dazzle you until he blows his arm out. And he's kind of fat. But the dude can pitch, and he'll get a nice deal with the Yankees.

Excellent picks:
Oliver Perez
Andy Pettitte

Pettitte might bring his 4 T's to the Dodgers, and he's a good dependable lefty starter. Perez is a good pick too - solid strikeout rate, and he's young enough to be valuable for a while. Perez tends to be lights out or terrible, more often lights out, though.

One-year deal club:
Randy Johnson
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Jeremy Affeldt
Scott Downs

These players are all old, injury prone, or of questionable talent. But teams will want a lefty starter, so none will be unemployed.

Righty Relievers
Luis Ayala
Joe Borowski
Juan Cruz
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Tom Gordon
LaTroy Hawkins
Guillermo Mota
Rudy Seanez
Julian Tavarez
David Weathers
Dan Wheeler
Kerry Wood

Dempster, Gordon, Farnsworth and Wood will draw the most interest, Wheeler and Tavarez decent picks too. Not a category to spend more than $3 million, though.

Right handed starters

Premium:
John Lackey
Derek Lowe
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Curt Schilling

With all eyes on CC, it's easy to forget how many good pitchers that aren't fat and overpriced there are. Lackey has been constantly brilliant in Southern California, as has Derek Lowe. Burnett is a nice pick, but like Sheets, he's a solid injury risk. Curt Schilling is the best 1 year deal available.

Pretty Good
John Garland
Brad Penny
Kyle Lohse
Paul Byrd

These are #3 starters in a good roation, #2 in most, #1 in a weaker rotation.

Bit Risky:
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Livan Hernandez
Orlando Hernandez
Jason Jennings
Pedro Martinez

The career leader in ERA+ might have to settle for a 1 year deal, and the Hernandez brothers aren't as young as they once were. Jason Jennings got hurt at just the wrong time, so he's an interesting player to take a flyer on. Colon is a fatty, and Clement hasn't been the same since he left Chicago, although much of that can be blamed on Dusty Baker.