Saturday, February 21, 2009

O-Dog, Can You See

The Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a 1 year deal, making the Casey Blake 3 year deal look like the worst move of the offseason, except for giving AJ Burnett 5 years when he'll spend at least two of them on the DL.

This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.

As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.

If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)

Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)

And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.

I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.

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