Well, when you consider that Barry Bonds always went with that last example, you kind of wonder. It could be that one is attempting to appear pious, since that's what you assume when someone points to the clouds. But really, there is plenty of genuine persecution of Christians in the world, and it is an insult to those who genuinely suffer, and to other members of the faith, to claim that merely being offended or mocked amounts to persecution. Particularly in the case of Blake and Wilson, where this was not about religion, it was about mocking a closer and getting in his head.The Dodgers won't face the Giants again until Aug. 10 in San Francisco, but Wilson told reporters in that city that he has "a pretty good memory."Wilson didn't deny that Blake's gesture could intensify the rivalry between the clubs.
"It could be a catalyst if you want to look at it that way," he said.
"There's always something to fuel the fire. You're always looking for some excuse to get riled up."The incident so upset Wilson that he wouldn't speak to reporters about it Sunday and had to be consoled by teammates.Asked whether Blake's actions surprised him, Wilson said, "In this day and age, everyone's got some meaning behind what they do. Whether a guy crosses home plate and points to the sky; he's not just pointing to the clouds, right?"
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Brian Wilson must not be a Forgive and Forget Christian
Wilson was upset that Casey Blake mocked his gesture which he frequently does at the end of games, which is apparently in honor of his faith and his late father.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Scouting Without Looking - Russell Martin
One of the biggest puzzles for the Dodgers this season, last night's walk-off walk notwithstanding, is what happened to Russell Martin offensively? Right now, he's hitting .198/.301/.247, compared to Brad Ausmus' .462/.500/.538. Granted, that could be part of his plan to go deeper into the season by making playing Ausmus look appealing, but the unavoidable fact is that Martin isn't hitting worth shit. Looking at his Fangraphs page, these are the numbers that stand out:
K%, HR/FB, IFFB%, FB%, CB%, ZSwing%, Swing%, OContact%, FStrike%
Based on those bits of information, here's what I would say:
To start off, Martin has been fooled a lot more, going for pitches out of the zone that he can't get, yet not going for good pitches in the zone. As a result, he's striking out more than he ever has (about 10% more of his ABs), and he's not getting the kind of hits he would want yet. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he's inviting pitchers to throw first pitch strikes more with his patient approach, and he should swing at that pitch down the pike on the first pitch, at least every so often to mix it up, especially when pitchers are throwing you a lot more first pitch strikes. He's 1 for 8 on balls in play that he's made contact with on the first pitch, but he's a career .316 hitter on those pitches.
Of course, part of that could just be a bad first month, but after the All-Star Break last year, he hit .260/.371/.336, relying heavily on his plate patience, and it would appear that pitchers are exploiting that now.
K%, HR/FB, IFFB%, FB%, CB%, ZSwing%, Swing%, OContact%, FStrike%
Based on those bits of information, here's what I would say:
To start off, Martin has been fooled a lot more, going for pitches out of the zone that he can't get, yet not going for good pitches in the zone. As a result, he's striking out more than he ever has (about 10% more of his ABs), and he's not getting the kind of hits he would want yet. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he's inviting pitchers to throw first pitch strikes more with his patient approach, and he should swing at that pitch down the pike on the first pitch, at least every so often to mix it up, especially when pitchers are throwing you a lot more first pitch strikes. He's 1 for 8 on balls in play that he's made contact with on the first pitch, but he's a career .316 hitter on those pitches.
Of course, part of that could just be a bad first month, but after the All-Star Break last year, he hit .260/.371/.336, relying heavily on his plate patience, and it would appear that pitchers are exploiting that now.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
My fantasy league
Since nobody reads this, I'll go ahead and post stuff about my fantasy team, so then I can see a record of how I did in the future. So I will always remember it.
A friend of mine wanted to create a league so he used CBS's comissioner setup. CBS sets up baseball lineups weekly - daily lineups make it too easy to manipulate starting pitchers. This is a bit of a challenge: Joba vs the Royals or a 2 start week for Dan Haren? The scoring is a hybrid of 5x5 roto and head to head - you challenge your opponent in the 5x5 categories. Most H2H leagues use a sillier version of linear weights.
Just so you know, you should play fantasy baseball so you can learn about the rest of the league. Why the hell are the Rays so good? Will Troy Tulowitzki recover (and why wasn't he the rookie of the year) and be the awesome SS we saw in 2007? Why do they call Matt Kemp the Bison (you could check Wikipedia, actually).
My lineup in that league:
Bengie Molina - C
Jorge Posada - C
Prince Fielder - 1B
Chase Utley - 2B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Evan Longoria - 3B
Jack Cust - OF
Andre Ethier - OF
Curtis Granderson - OF
Matt Kemp - OF
Torii Hunter - OF
Cameron Maybin - U
Rafael Furcal - U
Pitchers
Erik Bedard
Jonathan Broxton
Joba Chaimberlain
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
James Shields
Adam Wainwright
Bench
Clayton Kershaw
Oliver Perez
Cody Ross
Richie Weeks
A friend of mine wanted to create a league so he used CBS's comissioner setup. CBS sets up baseball lineups weekly - daily lineups make it too easy to manipulate starting pitchers. This is a bit of a challenge: Joba vs the Royals or a 2 start week for Dan Haren? The scoring is a hybrid of 5x5 roto and head to head - you challenge your opponent in the 5x5 categories. Most H2H leagues use a sillier version of linear weights.
Just so you know, you should play fantasy baseball so you can learn about the rest of the league. Why the hell are the Rays so good? Will Troy Tulowitzki recover (and why wasn't he the rookie of the year) and be the awesome SS we saw in 2007? Why do they call Matt Kemp the Bison (you could check Wikipedia, actually).
My lineup in that league:
Bengie Molina - C
Jorge Posada - C
Prince Fielder - 1B
Chase Utley - 2B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Evan Longoria - 3B
Jack Cust - OF
Andre Ethier - OF
Curtis Granderson - OF
Matt Kemp - OF
Torii Hunter - OF
Cameron Maybin - U
Rafael Furcal - U
Pitchers
Erik Bedard
Jonathan Broxton
Joba Chaimberlain
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
James Shields
Adam Wainwright
Bench
Clayton Kershaw
Oliver Perez
Cody Ross
Richie Weeks
Friday, April 3, 2009
Yeah, we signed Manny since my last post
Expect the following lineup regularly, after a while:
Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake
although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like
Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake
but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.
Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.
There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.
Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake
although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like
Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake
but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.
Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.
There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.
Why I Hate Blogging
I have about as many drafts as I do posts, which pop up everytime I open Blogger. It's annoying - blogging is more work than one would imagine. I like to have link-happy posts with in-depth analysis or something like that. But that's not easy, as it turns out. So that's what happens when I go months without updating.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
O-Dog, Can You See
The Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a 1 year deal, making the Casey Blake 3 year deal look like the worst move of the offseason, except for giving AJ Burnett 5 years when he'll spend at least two of them on the DL.
This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.
As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.
If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)
Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)
And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.
I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.
This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.
As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.
If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)
Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:
6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)
And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.
I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.
Friday, February 6, 2009
2009 NL Predictions on Feb 6, 2009
NL East:
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
The Nats landed Dunn, but that will not help much. Picking up Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson would have been good moves, but the club is committed to building from its farm system. More Dukes and less Kearns would be nice too. Too many players couldn't hit - the pitching staff was subpar, but that offense could not get anything going. The Phillies will not win the division, and I blame it all on Chan Ho Park. He will give up 50 homers in 2009. The Braves signed Derek Lowe, but we should remember they're down Tim Hudson.
NL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds
The Cubs kinda stagnated with their club, the Brewers fell, and nobody else really seemed to do anything this offseason. St Louis should get a healthy Carpenter back at some point, and that will give them the edge. Unless Pujols needs TJ surgery.
NL West
Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres
Paul Depodesta's impact can be seen as San Diego keeps acquiring players that would have fit well with the 2005 Dodgers. Orlando Hudson will be missed in Arizona, and Randy Johnson will be welcome in San Francisco. Arizona, LA and SF have decent rotations, but if RJ is healthy and Zito maintains his 2nd half form along with Cain and Lincecum, the Giants will be tough to score on, at least. Although Edgar Renteria will be a defensive downgrade from even 104-year-old Omar Vizquel. This also assumes, of course, the Dodgers sign Manny.
Postseason:
Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Phillies in 4
Dodgers over Cubs in 6
And watch this fall on its face.
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
The Nats landed Dunn, but that will not help much. Picking up Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson would have been good moves, but the club is committed to building from its farm system. More Dukes and less Kearns would be nice too. Too many players couldn't hit - the pitching staff was subpar, but that offense could not get anything going. The Phillies will not win the division, and I blame it all on Chan Ho Park. He will give up 50 homers in 2009. The Braves signed Derek Lowe, but we should remember they're down Tim Hudson.
NL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds
The Cubs kinda stagnated with their club, the Brewers fell, and nobody else really seemed to do anything this offseason. St Louis should get a healthy Carpenter back at some point, and that will give them the edge. Unless Pujols needs TJ surgery.
NL West
Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres
Paul Depodesta's impact can be seen as San Diego keeps acquiring players that would have fit well with the 2005 Dodgers. Orlando Hudson will be missed in Arizona, and Randy Johnson will be welcome in San Francisco. Arizona, LA and SF have decent rotations, but if RJ is healthy and Zito maintains his 2nd half form along with Cain and Lincecum, the Giants will be tough to score on, at least. Although Edgar Renteria will be a defensive downgrade from even 104-year-old Omar Vizquel. This also assumes, of course, the Dodgers sign Manny.
Postseason:
Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Phillies in 4
Dodgers over Cubs in 6
And watch this fall on its face.
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