How Much Better is Nick Markakis than Andre Ethier?

Markakis the 7th overall pick in 2003 while Ethier was a 2nd round pick that year. Markakis is a more athletic outfielder with a bit more power, and he's also a year and a half younger.

Let's run some numbers:

Markakis
2003 minors (Age 19, A-): .283/.374/.395
2004 minors (Age 20, A): .299/.373/.470
2005 minors (Age 21, A+/AA): .310/.390/.504
2006 majors: .291/.351/.448 (106 OPS+), .268 EqA, 7.1 WARP3
2007 majors: .300/.362/.485 (121 OPS+), .284 EqA, 9.6 WARP3

Ethier
2003 minors (Age 21, A-/A): .296/.364/.389
2004 minors (Age 22, A+): .314/.379/.442
2005 minors (Age 23, AA): .317/.384/.492
2006 majors: .308./365/.477 (113 OPS+), .282 EqA, 3.5 WARP3
2007 majors: .284/.350/.452 (103 OPS+), .267 EqA, 5.0 WARP3

The folks at B-P give a lot of credence to Markakis' superior defense, though to be fair, Ethier played better defense in 2007 when he did not hit as well. Even then, though, that would lead one to compare Markakis' 2006 to Ethier's 2007, and Markakis comes out on top by a couple of wins. Markakis also could potentially play center, something Ethier doesn't have in his arsenal.

Markakis is better, and has the level of talent to be a franchise player, provided that Baltimore can afford him in 4 years. That doesn't mean Ethier's a bad player, but he's not they kind of player you would build your team around.

Can Pierre be benched? Or - how to make $36 million matter

Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have in common that the Dodgers owe each of them $36 million for the remainder of their contracts. And that they were signed to play centerfield.

Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre

Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?

That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.

Crazy Trade Market

Just to show that you never know what will happen, Billy Beane sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 top prospects. Looking at this, the White Sox have a reasonable chance to improve in 2008. Consider the following:

Whitesox.com has Swisher as the starting Center Fielder on the White Sox depth chart. Carlos Quentin has some upside in left field, and Swisher will hit something along the lines of .270/.375/.470 or something like that. The southsiders will not start Uribe or Podsednik next year, and their lineup will look like this (presumably):

Cabrera
Swisher
Konerko
Thome
Dye
Pierzynski
Quentin
Crede
Richar

This should be an improvement, although it remains to be seen what will happen in that division. The Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The Royals blew $36 million on Jose Guillen. The Twins lost Torii Hunter to free agency and may trade Johan Santana (but they'd screw with everyone if they kept him and left him and Liriano atop the rotation). In Cleveland, the question of what happens to Paul Byrd is accompanied by will Pronk recover from merely being good back to being supremely super awesome? A better year from him could help ward off Detroit, especially with the 1-2 of Sabathia and Carmona.

Nonetheless, if Swisher can go, it would seem that anyone can go.