Stealing bases in 2009

Just for fun, I figured I'd check the breakeven percentages for basestealing in 2009, and I came across a startling discovery, which I'll come to later.

When deciding whether to steal, one must weigh the risks against the rewards. If one steals successfully, there is a base gained, which is nice, but you still have to have some offense do something. If the runner is caught, then not only do you lose a baserunner, but you also lose an out. Further, there are situational issues at stake too. If you steal a base in front of a guy who is going to hit a home run, then you gain nothing except fantasy points. If you get caught stealing in front of a guy who is going to hit a home run, you lose a run. When the batter is a patient line drive hitter, stealing bases can be more advantageous. In general, though, you can look at a nifty little tool that Baseball Prospectus has on its website called the Run Expectancy Matrix. From this, you can determine the break-even percentages, defined as the percentage of stolen base attempts that need to be successful in order for the attempt to have been worthwhile. Here are the breakeven percentages for each scenario:

Stealing second, runner on first only

0 out: 70.1%
1 out: 73.3%
2 out: 69.4%

This is the most standard stolen base situation. Your leadoff guy reaches and is the only one on, often a speedy fellow. You want him to be successful about 3/4 of the time at least, and in 2009, that was actually a little more than enough. All about getting something going with a guy in scoring position.

Stealing second, runners on first and third

0 out: 76.6%
1 out: 79.2%
2 out: 92.8%

This is a much stricter standard than stealing with a runner on first only. Why is that? Well, there is a runner in scoring position. A base hit will yield a run, and even a flyout will with less than two outs. Further, one should figure that if you've gotten runners on first and third, you've been getting to the pitcher pretty effectively already. Holding onto precious outs would be more important now. Especially with 2 outs; if caught with 2 outs, you risk losing a chance for a dinky little single to score you a run.

Stealing third, runner on second only/runner on first and second:

0 out: 83.3%/76.9%
1 out: 67.8%/71.4%
2 out: 87.0%/87.3%

Having a runner on second with nobody out can come from either a double, a single/walk followed by a wild pitch, balk or steal, or an error throwing to first. In any event, it reflects that your opponents are having a tough time with pitching and/or defense, and you should not ruin that too early. With one out, though, it's a huge dropoff and I don't know why. Presumably a runner on 2nd with one out more often corresponds to a single/walk followed by a bunt or some other productive out, or suggests that the pitcher is a bit more adept at getting batters out, and the sac fly is probably not a bad way of trying to get a run across. Again, stealing with a RISP is not a good idea with two outs. Adding the runner on first makes this a bit more worwhile with nobody out though not as much so with nobody out, but is still a bad idea with 2 outs. It's still better to try to steal third with 1 out, for some reason.


Double steal, runners on first and second catcher throws to third (default)

0 out: 60.0%
1 out: 54.9%
2 out: 81.0%

Can you believe how much more valuable it is to have the guy behind you try to steal too? This doesn't factor in the weak possibility of a double play on a double steal attempt. But still, most players can achieve that kind of stolen base percentage, so the double steal is really not a bad idea. The tail runner doesn't appear to be as important since it always makes more sense to attempt to throw out the lead runner, particularly with nobody out. One has to think you try this more with a right-handed hitter who's not a big power guy up, like Russell Martin or Orlando Hudson.

Double steal, catcher throws to second

0 out: 45.4%
1 out: 54.9%
2 out: 81.0%

This is something that just won't happen unless the catcher screws up. But it could happen, and it helps to be successful here. It could also happen if the third baseman was caught completely off guard or is just really poor defensively, or if the catcher feels more comfortable with the second baseman backing up the shortstop, or if you know the tail runner is a lot slower or got a much worse jump. Still, this has to be a split-second decision, so don't expect your opponent's catcher to do that.

In any event, the double steal should be much more popular than it is. Baseball Prospectus looked at it a couple years ago, and many managers are more risk averse with this. One would assume it's because they want to make sure both runners are good basestealers, and most teams don't always have a pair of guys who can do that.

Who is to blame for the Dodgers' shrinking lead?

The Dodgers haven't continued toward a pace of winning 100 games on the year, and many are blaming the bullpen, but that might not be accruate.

Consider the following splits before and after the all-star game:
Casey Blake
1sthalf: .285/.364/.486
2ndhalf: .255/.333/.426

Russell Martin
1st half: .258/.373/.314
2nd half: .264/.328/.352

James Loney
1st half: .281/.350/.402
2nd half: .265/.342/.368

Manny Ramirez
1st half: .385/.487/.669
2nd half: .264/.365/.424

As for Manny, one thing is clear: the Dodgers should have signed Adam Dunn. Dunn is in his prime and can be reliably counted on for 40+ homers (and 150+ strikeouts). Dunn seemed to be a viable option when negotiations got funny this offseason. Now it could be that Manny is just not having fun playing baseball anymore. It could be that he hasn't been able to have sex in months because the banned substance was treating his sexual dysfunction well. It could be that he needs to take a whiz in left field and he doesn't have the Green Monster for that anymore. Or it could be that Manny is getting old, and while he's had his burst of glory earlier this season, the Dodgers might have signed a guy that can deliver a .850-.900 OPS for the year rather than a guy who delivers a 1.100 OPS. That's not bad, except that it makes him a monumental waste of money.

I admit to screwing this up, but I should have remembered that anyone can be hot for a couple months, but the players are still human, and humans become less athletic in their late 30s. Or Manny could have just hit a bad spot.

But even if not all Manny, let's take a look at the other three guys. Casey Blake has always been a first half guy, but he shouldn't be hitting high in the lineup. Orlando Hudson always starts strong offensively, and fizzles after about May or so. Furcal will either be awesome or suck. Martin isn't even walking anymore, and the Dodgers should think about where they're going to get another catcher if he doesn't have anything left. James Loney has the curious scenario of losing power every year he's been in the majors. September is always his best power month, but he'll have to do quite a lot to get back up to speed. And by up to speed, I mean make a case to be tendered a contract next year.

Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier right now are the Dodger offense. I'm glad we have them, but we need for Blake, Hudson, Furcal, Manny, Martin and Loney to hit the damned baseball too.

Deadline Assessment

On a team that's in first place with the best record in baseball, what could they possibly need more of? A tough question, given that the Dodgers have been pretty darn good all year, and just about everyone on the roster has been solid. Let's examine:

Starting Lineup:
Martin. While he hasn't been hitting for any kind of power, you have to appreciate how he's gotten on base so darn consistently. Looking at his splits, though, pitchers tend to pitch around him with runners on base, and he's more likely to take the walk, thus the low RBI totals. But given how Dodger catchers, or any catchers, usually perform in the second half, let's hope he'll be an outlier this year.
Loney. Loney doesn't have the power you want for a first baseman, but he does tend to deliver with runners in scoring position. Frequently. He's more aggressive than Martin, and he still has a little bit of pop, or at least more than Martin. And for his career, Loney has an ISO power of .143 in the first half and .191 in the second half - he hits the ball harder later in the year. Like in the NLDS. So I'm not giving up on him. And for what it's worth, he seems to be one of Ramirez's favorite guys on the team.
Hudson. The All-Star reminded us of the risk the Dodgers took when signing him - he's fragile. If he's not healthy, the Dodgers have Blake DeWitt to back him up, which isn't a bad thing. Hudson is more of a first half player anyway, though; while he'll probably be useful for a while, the Dodgers may have seen the best of him.
Blake. Surprisingly good, the Beard has come through for the Dodgers offensively, posting a .279/.362/.472 line. Blake does tend to perform at a lower level in the second half, although that is almost entirely due to a lower BABIP. So we might still be able to depend on Blake.
Furcal. In 2006, Furcal was off to a terrible start, hitting .267/.345/.346 before the first half while dealing with nagging injuries. In the second half, though, he hit .339/.399/.564 with 11 HR in 298 AB to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, where JD Drew and Jeff Kent ruined everything. In 2007, Furcal began the year with a .273/.341/.354 line. No problem, he'll just have a great 2nd half again, right? Wrong, he hit .266/.322/.355 while dealing with more injuries. We're hoping he's more like 2006 this year, although maybe he needs to feel more of the pressure that year. Someone else, though, has been stealing the spotlight, and his name is...
Manny. He's been good except for when he was naughty and punished. He might have legitimately had sexual dysfunciton, but it's easier to smear him as a juicer. Fair enough. In any event, people largely seem to accept that he's done his time and it's time to move on. Or they're sick of hearing about steroid users. In any event, he's OPSing 1.000 and he's happy where he is. That doesn't make a difference in his performance, but the ESPN guys want you to think it does. Juan Pierre had a great run in his absence, but his last few games he's seeing fewer pitches, etc, like he's not in Beast Mode anymore.
Kemp. Can you say superstar? "Matt Kemp is probably nicknamed the Bison because he's tougher than a Robot Made of Nails." Kemp is hitting for better average than last year, and he's showing better plate discipline as well, posting a .321/.385/.500 line so far. His power and speed numbers are looking solid too, and his defense has been remarkable, including his pre all-star break overhead backwards catch to end the game.
Ethier. Hitting for power, and likely to be the first 30 HR Dodger since Beltre in 04, Ethier is having a relatively rough year at the plate. He's been striking out a lot more, which has pulled his average down to .254, and his walk rate is a bit better too. Ethier's BABIP is way down this year, and while his LD rate is down slightly and could fluctuate, his FB% is up and GB% is down by a lot, which will significantly drop his average. Granted, his HR/FB% is nice at over 15%, but he'll have to improve a bit or cut his K rate down a bit to get back to where he wants to be.

The offense is amazingly not a problem for this year's Dodgers. While some more power would be nice, that will come with more plate appearances for Manny, and a good second half from Furcal and Loney. Like 2006, they lead the league in OBP, and they will probably still leave a lot of men on base.

The Dodgers pitching is...also very good. But let's look at what might be improved:

Chad Billingsley appears to be hitting a rough patch. His ERA has soared to 3.76, and the biggest problem seems to be Torre not pulling him - either when he's thrown over 100 pitches ing the game or 30 pitches in an inning. Sure he's the staff ace, but at 24, he's still a young pitcher, and the Dodgers have an 8 man bullpen.
Clayton Kershaw looks like he's in a groove. His 2.91 ERA and 8.8 k/9 are the nicer stats, although his walk rate is a bit troubling. He is avoiding the worst true outcome, though - he's not giving up the long ball. Having surrendered 5 in 106 innings is remarkable, and will help him get away with his success.
Randy Wolf has given up the long ball more, but doesn't let other guys on base. With a rotation leading 1.1 WHIP, he's been quite good for the Dodgers. There haven't been any health scares this year (and he pitched 190 innings last year), so the king of the no-decision looks like he deserves some respect.
Hiroki Kuroda still seems to be getting back into things, but he seems to be in line with where he was last year. He'll have his rough spots, and then he'll be brilliant, and for the most part he'll be pretty good. When you have Billingsley and Kershaw, he's a good player to mix in. Still works efficiently.
Eric Stults continues to be a useful surprise, but doesn't seem to get his spot in the rotation.
Jeff Weaver performed decently enough as a swingman so far, and he'll probably continue to be good in that role. His peripherals do not support his ERA at all, so unless he can be an extreme groundballer, he may drop off.
Jason Schmidt must be watched for the next couple games. If he can hold up for 5 or 6 innings a start, that would be a great lift to the Dodger rotation. To have a rotation of Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf, Kuroda, Schmidt with the minor leaguers the Dodgers have would give them a lift; it wouldn't be Halladay, but it wouldn't be as costly.

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton showed us that with a healthy toe, he's still the dominant guy he's been all year. Looking a lot like Gagne in 03 but with a higher walk rate and an even bigger waistline, Broxton has struck out 70 in 42 2/3 innings and only surrendered one homer. That's dominance.
Ronald Belisario came out of nowhere, and now he's hurt and the Dodgers are worried. There might not be more talent in nowhere. Or is there?
Ramon Troncoso has peripherals more like Wade and an ERA more like Wade last year, but he's been the man in 09.
Guillermo Mota has worked his way back to being respectable. Having surrendered only 3 homers in 44 innings, Mota is no Broxton, but he can get us there.
Brent Leach is a good situational lefty guy, and the rookie has been put in some high leverage situations with mixed results. It's encouraging to see Torre give him a shot, though.
James McDonald looks more comfortable in the bullpen than in the rotation, having posted a cool 2.35 ERA as a reliever with a 1.239 WHIP. Don't know if that's what the Dodgers want to do with him, but they might have to consider it as an option.
Claudio Vargas - "Sir Not Appearing in this Film"
Scott Elbert - has struck out 12 and walked 2 in 11 innings. That's not a lot of innings.

Extra depth for the rotation and/or bullpen would be nice, but the Dodgers could accomplish that by bidding money for Ben Sheets more effectively than bidding players for Roy Halladay. Besides, wouldn't a clubhouse of Sheets, Loney and Ramirez be hilarious?

Manny being Banny-ed

"Did you know that you can fool the breathalizer test by chewing on activated charcoal tablets?"
"Well, maybe we should change our slogan to "If you must drink and drive, suck charcoal."
"Won't the police ask about the charcoal in your mouth?"
"There's not a law against charcoal."
"Yet."
- Thank You for Smoking

Manny Ramirez tested positive for drugs in violation of the MLB policy. The most useful bit of information to be found in this ESPN story:

Ramirez and his representatives were prepared to appeal the synthetic testosterone results, intending to argue he had taken a steroid precursor known as DHEA, according to two sources. The drug is akin to the now-banned substance famously known as Andro, but it is not on baseball's banned list. (emphasis added)

Baseball had geared up to dispute the argument, and a Ramirez appeal was scheduled for last Wednesday. MLB's legal team intended to use expert testimony to cite evidence it believed showed DHEA could not have been the cause of the synthetic testosterone.

This makes for a nice messy and technical legal dispute, and while it's kind of messy, it is legal, interestingly enough. But the story gets more interesting:

However, in the days before the hearing, the union turned over Ramirez's medical records -- and they turned out to be a boon for MLB.

Within the records was a prescription written for the drug human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) -- No. 55 on the list of banned performance-enhancing substances in the policy. The drug is mainly used for female fertility issues, but it is best known among male steroid users as a substance that can help kick-start the body's production of natural testosterone, which is stymied when using synthetic testosterone (aka steroids).

That stuff probably looked like this, innocently enough. And while sources indicate that there were problems with his testicles that let him to use the drugs, he failed to get a proper medical exemption. Players can get a Theraputic Use Exemption (TUE) under the drug policy, as is stated here:

1. A Player authorized to ingest a Prohibited Substance through a valid, medically appropriate prescription provided by a duly licensed physician shall receive a Therapeutic Use Exemption ("TUE"). To be "medically appropriate," the Player must have a documented medical need under the standards accepted in the United States or Canada for the prescription in the prescribed dosage. A urine sample which is found to contain a Prohibited Substance will not be deemed a positive test result if such sample was provided by a Player with an effective TUE for that substance. A Player with a TUE for a Prohibited Substance does not violate the Program by possessing or using that substance.

2. A Player seeking a TUE must notify, or cause the issuing physician to notify, the IPA of the existence of the prescription. Whenever requested to do so by the IPA, the Player shall provide, or cause the issuing physician to provide, documentation
supporting the issuance of the prescription. If the issuing physician is not duly licensed in the United States or Canada, the IPA shall request that the Player provide such documentation. The IPA shall notify the Player and counsel for the Association of any request for documentation. Following his/her review of such documentation and, if necessary, consultation with an expert in the area covered by the prescription, the IPA shall determine whether to grant the TUE. The IPA shall report that determination to the Player and to the Parties and, in the event of a denial, forward to the Parties the documentation received and all other material reviewed in reaching that determination. (See Section 9.C.1(c) below.)

3. A TUE shall be effective from the date the Player notified, or caused the issuing physician to notify, the IPA of the existence of the prescription involved, and shall not be effective for any use or possession of a Prohibited Substance prior to that date. A Player who is determined not to qualify for a TUE may not challenge a determination that he violated the Program by contending, in connection with a "no fault or negligence" defense or otherwise, that he believed he would qualify or had qualified for a TUE; however, a Player is not otherwise precluded from introducing evidence of medical treatment in support of such a challenge.

We don't have a lot of time. And it's going to be a lot harder because you're gay now.
- Deleted scene from Team America: World Police

Ramirez is probably most upset that his doctor did not inform him that he was using a banned substance. It is also possible that he has stopped taking the substance recently, and as a result is crying a lot more. But seriously, my guess is that Ramirez was prescribed a brand name of the drug, not the generic name, because that's what doctors prescribe to you, and if he asked a couple more questions or if his doctor told him, he might have been ok (it's also possible that his doctor was a Giants fan). In any event, Manny is planning on suing the doctor, because doctor mistakes do happen.

So what we know is that Manny was using a suspicious substance that was legal, and an illegal substance for a legitimate medical reason that he didn't get approved by MLB. It is likely that upon realizing that he could not get an exemption from it, and it certainly could not be a retroactive exemption, that he gave up and figured to do his time. It would appear that Manny's failure to perform due dilligence in taking care of his own personal, er, ball team has caused him to let his baseball team down.

Brian Wilson must not be a Forgive and Forget Christian

Wilson was upset that Casey Blake mocked his gesture which he frequently does at the end of games, which is apparently in honor of his faith and his late father.

The Dodgers won't face the Giants again until Aug. 10 in San Francisco, but Wilson told reporters in that city that he has "a pretty good memory."Wilson didn't deny that Blake's gesture could intensify the rivalry between the clubs.

"It could be a catalyst if you want to look at it that way," he said.

"There's always something to fuel the fire. You're always looking for some excuse to get riled up."The incident so upset Wilson that he wouldn't speak to reporters about it Sunday and had to be consoled by teammates.

Asked whether Blake's actions surprised him, Wilson said, "In this day and age, everyone's got some meaning behind what they do. Whether a guy crosses home plate and points to the sky; he's not just pointing to the clouds, right?"

Well, when you consider that Barry Bonds always went with that last example, you kind of wonder. It could be that one is attempting to appear pious, since that's what you assume when someone points to the clouds. But really, there is plenty of genuine persecution of Christians in the world, and it is an insult to those who genuinely suffer, and to other members of the faith, to claim that merely being offended or mocked amounts to persecution. Particularly in the case of Blake and Wilson, where this was not about religion, it was about mocking a closer and getting in his head.

Scouting Without Looking - Russell Martin

One of the biggest puzzles for the Dodgers this season, last night's walk-off walk notwithstanding, is what happened to Russell Martin offensively? Right now, he's hitting .198/.301/.247, compared to Brad Ausmus' .462/.500/.538. Granted, that could be part of his plan to go deeper into the season by making playing Ausmus look appealing, but the unavoidable fact is that Martin isn't hitting worth shit. Looking at his Fangraphs page, these are the numbers that stand out:

K%, HR/FB, IFFB%, FB%, CB%, ZSwing%, Swing%, OContact%, FStrike%

Based on those bits of information, here's what I would say:

To start off, Martin has been fooled a lot more, going for pitches out of the zone that he can't get, yet not going for good pitches in the zone. As a result, he's striking out more than he ever has (about 10% more of his ABs), and he's not getting the kind of hits he would want yet. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he's inviting pitchers to throw first pitch strikes more with his patient approach, and he should swing at that pitch down the pike on the first pitch, at least every so often to mix it up, especially when pitchers are throwing you a lot more first pitch strikes. He's 1 for 8 on balls in play that he's made contact with on the first pitch, but he's a career .316 hitter on those pitches.

Of course, part of that could just be a bad first month, but after the All-Star Break last year, he hit .260/.371/.336, relying heavily on his plate patience, and it would appear that pitchers are exploiting that now.

My fantasy league

Since nobody reads this, I'll go ahead and post stuff about my fantasy team, so then I can see a record of how I did in the future. So I will always remember it.

A friend of mine wanted to create a league so he used CBS's comissioner setup. CBS sets up baseball lineups weekly - daily lineups make it too easy to manipulate starting pitchers. This is a bit of a challenge: Joba vs the Royals or a 2 start week for Dan Haren? The scoring is a hybrid of 5x5 roto and head to head - you challenge your opponent in the 5x5 categories. Most H2H leagues use a sillier version of linear weights.

Just so you know, you should play fantasy baseball so you can learn about the rest of the league. Why the hell are the Rays so good? Will Troy Tulowitzki recover (and why wasn't he the rookie of the year) and be the awesome SS we saw in 2007? Why do they call Matt Kemp the Bison (you could check Wikipedia, actually).

My lineup in that league:
Bengie Molina - C
Jorge Posada - C
Prince Fielder - 1B
Chase Utley - 2B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Evan Longoria - 3B
Jack Cust - OF
Andre Ethier - OF
Curtis Granderson - OF
Matt Kemp - OF
Torii Hunter - OF
Cameron Maybin - U
Rafael Furcal - U

Pitchers
Erik Bedard
Jonathan Broxton
Joba Chaimberlain
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera
James Shields
Adam Wainwright

Bench
Clayton Kershaw
Oliver Perez
Cody Ross
Richie Weeks

Yeah, we signed Manny since my last post

Expect the following lineup regularly, after a while:

Furcal
Kemp
Manny
Ethier
Martin
Loney
Hudson
Blake

although to be fair, a more optimized lineup would look like

Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Hudson
Blake

but in any event, the Dodgers figure to finally have a good offense. If Kemp and Loney realize their potential, this lineup could become downright vicious.

Also it looks like McDonald gets the 5th starter spot, joining Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and the overrated Randy Wolf. Were Wolf not as homer-prone, he'd be dynamite, but you can't complain about the top three of the rotation.

There are just the injury risks to worry about: Furcal, Hudson, Blake, Manny, Billingsley (although not arm related), Wolf, and we're kinda screwed if anything happens to Russell Martin. Our backup options are more Blake DeWitt, more Juan Pierre, which are above-replacement replacements. One should be optimistic.

Why I Hate Blogging

I have about as many drafts as I do posts, which pop up everytime I open Blogger. It's annoying - blogging is more work than one would imagine. I like to have link-happy posts with in-depth analysis or something like that. But that's not easy, as it turns out. So that's what happens when I go months without updating.

O-Dog, Can You See

The Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a 1 year deal, making the Casey Blake 3 year deal look like the worst move of the offseason, except for giving AJ Burnett 5 years when he'll spend at least two of them on the DL.

This gives the Dodgers the staff in the infield to spell everyone as needed. Hudson ended 2008 injured, Furcal has had injury problems for a long time, and Casey Blake is an old dude with the range of, well, Jeff Kent. DeWitt could be a part-time player, ready to go in case someone goes down with an injury.

As it is, though, the Dodgers are better off with the lineup suggested by Ken Gurnick - with Blake playing left field. That sounds stupid and random - Blake is a third baseman. Has he even played the outfield before on a professional level? Well, it turns out that he has. And he is actually pretty good at it. A 111 Rate2 in Right Field from 2005-2007 would indicate he could probably play left in 2009. That would put the much better fielding Blake DeWitt at third base, and move Juan Pierre to the bench. DeWitt would probably be a better full-time player in 2009 than Juan Pierre, so it would make more sense to play him over Pierre. By the same standard, Orlando Hudson is definitely an upgrade over Juan Pierre. Torre and Bowa seemed to really like DeWitt, so it would not surprise me if he gets the nod at third and Blake moves to left field.

If you sign Manny, that would tend to force you toward playing CB at third, and encourage the rotation of infielders. That would certainly help Martin's durability - he wouldn't be playing third base or shortstop on his "day off." That also shifts the lineup as follows:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
8 Kemp (R)
3 Loney (L)
4 Hudson (S)
7 Blake (R)
5 DeWitt (L)

Although possibly switching Martin and Hudson. Adding Manny, assuming it benches DeWitt, looks like this:

6 Furcal (S)
2 Martin (R)
9 Ethier (L)
7 Manny (R)
3 Loney (L)
8 Kemp (R)
4 Hudson (S)
5 Blake (R)

And when the Dodgers get to play with a DH, they'll be well set for it by plugging Manny in - no more Mark Sweeney DHing.

I would offer Ramirez a front-loaded 4 year, $75 million deal with opt outs after 2010 and 2011, set up to pay $25 million, $25 million, $15 million, $10 million. Include incentive clauses so that with 550 PAs in 2009 and 2010, then his 2011 salary increases to $20 million and his salary for 2012 increases by $2 million. If he gets to 550 PA in 2011, then that adds $3 million to his 2012 salary, brining the maximum value of his contract to 4 years, $85 million (25/25/20/16), and finally add an MVP clause so that if he places first in MVP voting, his salary the next year increases by $5 million, giving him up to $100m over 4 years. I'd favor an MVP incentive clause because to still be getting MVP votes, he'd still be at least hitting .300/.400/.500, which is definitely worthwhile. And that would make everyone happy and get him to show up.

2009 NL Predictions on Feb 6, 2009

NL East:

Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Nats landed Dunn, but that will not help much. Picking up Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson would have been good moves, but the club is committed to building from its farm system. More Dukes and less Kearns would be nice too. Too many players couldn't hit - the pitching staff was subpar, but that offense could not get anything going. The Phillies will not win the division, and I blame it all on Chan Ho Park. He will give up 50 homers in 2009. The Braves signed Derek Lowe, but we should remember they're down Tim Hudson.

NL Central

Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Pirates
Reds

The Cubs kinda stagnated with their club, the Brewers fell, and nobody else really seemed to do anything this offseason. St Louis should get a healthy Carpenter back at some point, and that will give them the edge. Unless Pujols needs TJ surgery.

NL West

Dodgers
Giants
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres

Paul Depodesta's impact can be seen as San Diego keeps acquiring players that would have fit well with the 2005 Dodgers. Orlando Hudson will be missed in Arizona, and Randy Johnson will be welcome in San Francisco. Arizona, LA and SF have decent rotations, but if RJ is healthy and Zito maintains his 2nd half form along with Cain and Lincecum, the Giants will be tough to score on, at least. Although Edgar Renteria will be a defensive downgrade from even 104-year-old Omar Vizquel. This also assumes, of course, the Dodgers sign Manny.

Postseason:

Dodgers over Mets in 5
Cubs over Phillies in 4

Dodgers over Cubs in 6

And watch this fall on its face.

Room for Improvement? Part 1 - Offense

How will the Dodgers improve over last season, besides a full season of Manny Ramirez? Well, let's look position by position, but just at offense for now.

Team

6194 PA, 264/.333/.399, 126 SB/43 CS, 137 HR/543BB/1032K

Catcher

Russell Martin - 650 PA, .280/.385/.396, 18 SB/6 CS, 13 HR/90BB/83K

Others - 80 PA, .213/.263/.320, 0 SB/0 CS, 2 HR/4BB/12K

Martin can have a better season by having a better backup catcher and batting 6th, where he'll have a few less PAs. The bar is low enough any replacement level player should beat it. Brad Ausmus needs to look a bit more alive, but maybe Torre will like him enough to give him some PT.

First Base

James Loney - 651 PA, .289/.338/.434, 7 SB/4 CS, 13 HR/45BB/85K

Loney was in his first season as a full time first baseman, and came up an averagish hitter overall. He hit fewer homers in a little more than half the plate appearances, reflecting that fewer of his fly balls were going long. Loney is also a much better hitter away from Dodger Stadium, so one idea would be to give him his off days at home. Still, he should rebound to about an .800-.820 OPS, particularly as his LD% stays over 20%, and he just turns 25 this coming season. One item of note: Loney's platoon splits in 2008 appeared quite dreadful, while in 2007 they looked more favorable. Loney's BABIP vs lefties was .273 this year, compared to a .311 mark for his ML career and a .323 mark overall, so one would expect some improvement.

Second Base and Third Base

Jeff Kent - 474 PA, 280/.327/.418, 0 SB/1 CS, 12HR/25BB/52K

Blake DeWitt - 421 PA, 264/.344/.383, 3SB/0CS, 9HR/45BB/68K

Casey Blake - 233 PA, 251/.313/.460, 1 SB/0 CS, 10 HR/16BB/52K

To understand the situation, Casey Blake will play a full year and Jeff Kent will retire. Casey tends to have one or two months with ridiculous BABIP which carry his season, and the rest of the time he'll have like a .240 average on balls in play. The Dodgers never got any of his high BABIP stuff, but fortunately he showed he could still hit a long ball here and there. In a full season one would expect his average and OBP to be up by about .20, although his slugging likely won't go up.

Shortstop

Angel Berroa - 256 PA, .230/.304/.310, 0 SB/0 CS, 1 HR/20BB/41K
Nomar Garciaparra - 181 PA, 264/.326/.466, 1 SB/1CS, 8 HR/15 BB/11 K
Rafael Furcal - 164 PA, .357/.439/.573, 8 SB/3 CS, 5 HR/20 BB/17 K
Chin-Lung Hu - 129 PA, .181/.252/.233, 2 SB/0 CS, 0 HR/11BB/23K
OVERALL - .258/.331/.394

Nomar looks like he still has something left as a bench player, but he might retire rather than realize what he has left. Meanwhile, Berroa and Hu stunk up the joint more than Nomar or Furcal could make it look good, reducing the performance to something resembling Furcal's 2007 season. A return to 2006 form would be what the Dodgers would hope for, but it remains to be seen what will happen with his health. It also remains to be seen what DeJesus/Hu/Abreu can do for the middle infield, particularly after Hu fixes his eyes.

Outfield
Kemp - 657, .290/.340/.459, 35/11, 18/46/153
Ethier - 596, .305/.375/.510, 6/3, 20/59/88
Pierre - 406, .283/.327/.328. 40/12, 1/22/24
Jones - 238, .158/.256/.249, 0/1, 3/27/76
Ramirez - 229, .396/.489/.743, 2/0, 17/35/38
Young - 143, .246/.321/.341, 0/0, 1/14/34

The good news is Andruw Jones will be gone. The bad news is that Manny Ramirez is not under contract yet. The Dodgers would improve immensely with an outfield of Manny-Kemp-Ethier, but without Manny, they would need to sign Abreu or Griffey just to break even. Dunn would improve them. Ethier might drop off a bit, but seems to be dependable for something around .300/.360/.490. Matt Kemp could take off this year with newly improved plate patience and begin racking up home run totals. Juan Pierre as the left fielder will cause a slight decrease in offense unless Kemp makes up the difference.

Current Lineup:

Furcal - ss
Martin - c
Kemp - cf
Ethier - rf
Blake - 3b
Loney - 1b
DeWitt - 2b
Pierre - lf