Plate Discipline

This is a virtue that stat geeks will extol constantly. There are a few things to look at in this:

1) Walk rate
2) Strikeout to walk rate
3) Pitches per plate appearance


The first two are easy to look at. Walk rate can demonstrate how much a player will take walks, but this is a function of multiple variables, namely: his eyesight, his judgement of the strike zone, and the amount of fear a pitcher has for him. Strikeout to walk can be useful in estimating the player's overall OBP; a player with a lot of strikeouts will not hit for high average, and so the number of walks may be outweighted by the low batting average that results. For example, Adam Dunn. On the other hand, a player who does not strike out yet still walks a lot demonstrates excellent patience (few swinging K's) and excellent knowledge of the strike zone (few times caught looking), and a great example of this is Jackie Robinson.

Now pitches per plate appearance is one of those stats that is not very well-known or advertised, but this is something one can think through. The more pitches a pitcher has to go through, the shorter he will last, even if he gets everyone out. After all, when a pitcher is removed before the 6th inning, that is when the worst relief pitchers have to come out of the bullpen. What was often the case with Brad Penny was that he would have good outings, but batters would foul off so many pitches that he would hit 100 pitches in the 4th and 5th innings. Hitting foul balls is a skill that is perhaps too underappreciated, but a player that can hit a foul ball can exhaust a pitcher easily.

Either way, here's the Dodgers' starting line, complete with P/PA for the past 6 seasons. Stop now and guess who will have the highest number here.

Ok, here.

Betemit 4.01 Furcal 3.89 Gonzo 3.87 Martin 3.77 Kent 3.62 Ethier 3.59 Pierre 3.44 Nomar 3.13

MLB average P/PA in2006: 3.76

The Dodgers lineup will be below average next year in taking pitches, although that could change once the injury bug bites. Nomar will not stay healthy all year, though so that number will get a little higher. Still, the Dodgers look to be losing many battles of pitch counts if they do not get on base more than the other team.

I was impressed though, to see Betemit with the best P/PA, despite not having a really high isolated patience (OBP-BA). Nonetheless, he can be a pest for the opposition if nothing else.

A Look at the Division - AL WEST

Starring the Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and the Texas Rangers. Here, I make my first round of predictions that involve a DH. Offseason acquisitions are in italics.

Texas Rangers
Pos_Name__2006 Batting Line__Opening Day Age
2 - Laird (.296/.332/.473), 27
3 - Texiera (.282/.371/.514), 26
4 - Kinsler (.286/.347/.454), 24
5 - Blalock (.266/.325/.401), 26
6 - Young (.314/.356/.459), 30
7 - Wilkerson (.222/.306/.422), 29
8 - Lofton (.301/.360/.403), 39
9 - Cruz (.223/.261/.385), 26 or Sosa (.274/.345/.537 career), 38
DH - Catalonoto (.300/.376/.439), 32

Rotation
Milwood (R, 16-12, 4.52, Age: 32)
Padilla (R, 15-10, 4.50, Age: 29)
McCarthy (R, 4-7, 4.68, Age: 23)
Tejada (R, 5-5, 4.28, Age: 25)
Koronka (L, 7-7, 5.69, Age: 26)

Closer: Eric Gagne

Anaheim Angels
2 - Napoli (.228/.360/.455), 25
3 - undecided
4 - Kendrick (.285/.314/.416), 23
5 - Figgins (.267/.336/.376), 29
6 - Cabrera (.282/.335/.404), 32
7 - Anderson (.280/.323/.433), 34
8 - Matthews (.313/.371/.495), 32
9 - Guerrero (.329/.382/.552), 31
DH - Hillenbrand (.277/.313/.451), 31

Rotation
Lackey (R, 13-11 3.56, Age:28)
Escobar (R, 11-14, 3.61, Age: 30)
Santana (R, 16-8, 4.28, Age: 24)
Weaver (R, 11-2, 2.56, Age: 24)
Colon (R, 1-5, 5.11, Age: 33) or Sanders (L, 7-3 4.71, Age: 25)

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez

Seattle Mariners

2 - Johjima (.291/.332/.451), 30
3 - Sexson (.264/.338/. 504), 32
4 - Lopez (.282/.319/.405), 23
5 - Beltre (.268/.328/.465), 27
6 - Betancourt ( .289/.310/.403), 25
7 - Ibanez (.289/.353/.516), 34
8 - Ichiro (.322/.370/.416), 33
9 - Guillen (.216/.276/.398), 30
DH - Vidro (.289/.348/.395), 32

Rotation
Hernandez (R, 12-14, 4.52, age: 20)
Washburn (L, 8-14, 4.67, age:32)
Ramirez (L, 5-5, 4.48, age:27)
Batista (R, 11-8, 4.58, age 36)
Weaver (R, 8-14, 5.76, age: 30)

Closer: JJ Putz

Oakland Athletics

2 - Jason Kendall (.295/.367/.342), 32
3 - Dan Johnson (.234/.323/.381), 27
4 - Mark Ellis (.249/.319/.385), 29
5 - Eric Chavez (.241/.351/.435), 29
6 - Bobby Crosby (.229/.298/.338), 27
7 - Nick Swisher (.254/.372/.493), 26
8 - Mark Kotsay (.275/.332/.386), 31
9 - Milton Bradley (.276/.370/.447), 27

Rotation
Harden (R, 4-0 4.24, age 25)
Haren (R, 14-13 4.12, age 26)
Loaiza (R, 11-9 4.89, age 35)
Blanton (R, 16-12, 4.82, age 26)
Kennedy (L, 4-1, 2.31, age 27)

Closer: Huston Street

Analysis

This is a mixed bag as far as divisions go. The Angels have a great pitching staff, but their offense, apart from Vlad, is mediocre to miserable. The A's have a subpar offense, decent defense, and a good pitching staff. The Mariners have a better offense, as Guillen will be an upgrade from the black hole that was centerfield last year. Their pitching staff should be slightly better, as King Felix is a year older and Jeff Weaver might start getting lucky again with balls in play. The Rangers have added Gagne, who will be great unless he blows his arm out again, Kenny Lofton, Frank Catalonotto, and Sammy Sosa. Catalonotto will be the most useful of the new Rangers, and unless Sosa hits at least 30 bombs, the Rangers will break the streak of Schowalter blessings of World Series wins.

Predicted Standings

4) Texas Rangers (-18 games)
3) Seattle Mariners (-11 games)
2) Oakland A's (-10 games)
1) Anaheim Angels

A Look at the division - NL East

Welcome to the land no longer dominated by the Braves. The Mets, Phillies, Marlins and Nationals live here too.

New this offseason:
Mets: Chan Ho Park, Moises Alou
Phillies: Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Wes Helms, Jayson Werth
Marlins: nobody significant
Braves: Craig Wilson, Mike Gonzalez
Nationals: Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, bunch of jobber pitchers

Ascending rankings

5th place - Washington Nationals

Let's face it, they're going to suck and suck hard. The Flordia Marlins had a bare bones team with excellent rookies, but the Nats just have aging crap. They've got a few hitters, but no pitching. They have two very good relief pitchers, and they might get to them when Patterson starts, but that's it. The lineup will hurt even more as Nick Johnson will be out a good while with that broken leg.

2 - Schneider
3 - Johnson
4 - Lopez
5 - Zimmerman
6 - Guzman (hopefully he gets replaced by Lopez and Belliard plays 2B)
7 - Church (I hope, for their sake)
8 - Logan
9 - Kearns

Rotation - John Patterson (R) and a bunch of pieces of crap

Closer - Chad Cordero

4th Place - Atlanta Braves
Just when I thought the Braves management was about to give up, they went and got Craig Wilson. But still, what the heck are they doing, particularly if they don't give the 2B starting job to Aybar and 1B job to Wilson. What they had last year was more than just an off-year; the club is breaking down a bit. Not using Betemit at short and trading off Marte was not a smart move, particularly with budget constraints and the level of talent they have.

Lineup
2 - McCann
3 - Wilson
4 - Aybar
5 - C. Jones
6 - Renteria
7 - Langerhans
8 - A. Jones
9 - Francoeur

Rotation
Smoltz (R)
Hudson (R)
Hampton (L)
Davies (R)
James (L)

Closer - Bob Wickman

3rd Place - Florida Marlins
But just barely over Atlanta. Still, I think the fish are prime candidates to pass by the tomohawks, mainly because they're a core group that will only get better. The question is whether Dontrelle Willis will have another great odd-numbered year. You can't discount this team, except for in centerfield.

2 - Olivo
3 - Jacobs
4 - Uggla
5 - Cabrera
6 - Ramirez
7 - Willingham
8 - Amezaga
9 - Hermida

Rotation:
Willis (L)
Olsen (L)
Johnson (R)
Sanchez (R)
Nolasco (R)

Closer - Tankersly

2nd Place - New York Mets
They'll be well in front of the Marlins, but will fall short when they're missing Pedro too much. Sure they did fine without him, and their offense can power them through quite a bit, but they can't expect to be that lucky with middle relief. Also, the rotation is either too old or too meh. But as a whole that's the best lineup in the NL.

Lineup
2 - LoDuca
3 - Delgado
4 - Valentin
5 - Wright
6 - Reyes
7 - Alou
8 - Beltran
9 - Green

Rotation
Glavine (L)
El Duque (R)
Maine (R)
Perez (L)
Park (R)

Closer - Billy Wagner

Philadelphia Phillies - Division Champs
That the Phillies got two decent starting pitchers gives them an extroardinary improvement. That was the only real weakness Philadelphia had last year, and they've got John Lieber as an extra guy too. As Cole Hammels develops, they should become very good. They might miss Abreu, though, and the Mets are certainly within the margin of error on this one.

2 - Barajas
3 - Howard
4 - Utley
5 - Helms
6 - Rollins
7 - Burrell
8 - Rowand
9 - Victorino

Rotation
Garcia (R)
Myers (R)
Hammels (L)
Eaton (R)
Moyer (L)

Closer - Tom Gordon

A look at the division - NL Central

Two years ago, the NL West held the shameful title of the worst division in baseball, where the division champ struggled to top .500. This year, that honor goes to the NL Central, which is up for grabs to some degree.

Because I don't spend as much time on them, I'll go into a bit more detail here.

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup
Alfonso Soriano - CF
Matt Murton - LF
Derrek Lee - 1B
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Michael Barrett - C
Jacque Jones - RF
Mark Derosa - 2B
Cesar Izturis - SS

Projected Rotation
Carlos Zambrano (R)
Ted Lilly (L)
Jason Marquis (R)
Rich Hill (L)
Mark Prior (R)

Closer - Ryan Dempster

The Cubs began making a step in the right direction, but did not add a truly solid starting pitcher to the rotation. Granted, so much of the rotation was mediocre last year that Lilly and Marquis could help. The Cubs' defense should prove interesting with Soriano in center, and their offense should reap benefits from Sori as well, although he may be moved to the 2 instead of the 1 when it occurs to the Cubs that it is better to send up a masher with people on base. Chicago improved, but didn't make up for everything, and not everyone will stay healthy.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Lineup
Chris Duffy - CF
Jack Wilson - SS
Freddy Sanchez - 3B/2B
Jason Bay - LF
Adam Laroche - 1B
Xavier Nady - RF
Castillo/Bautista - 2B/3B
Ronny Paulino - C

Rotation
Duke (L)
Snell (R)
Armas (R)
Chacon (R)
someone

Closer - um...

Not a terrible team, but still not much to look forward to, other than an improved lineup and a better season from Zach Duke. Maybe Chacon will have better command. Or not.

Cincinatti Reds

Lineup
Freel - RF
Hatteburg - 1B
Griffey - CF
Dunn - LF
Ross - C
Encarnacion - 3B
Phillips - 2B
Gonzalez - SS

Rotation
Harang (R)
Arroyo (R)
jobber
jobber
jobber

Once again, the Reds have two useful starting pitchers, but even as good as their offense is, they need to be productive to help the 3-5 starters out. Dunn could go a long way if his luck changes on balls in play. Griffey's health is always a question, but seemingly he'll be able to play. Whether the park factors will continue to make Ross look beastly will also mean a lot to this club.

Houston Astros

Lineup
2 - Ausmus
3 - Berkman
4 - Biggio
5 - Ensberg
6 - Everett
7 - Lee
8 - Burke
9 - Scott

Rotation
Oswalt (R)
Jennins (R)
Williams (R)
Rodriguez (L)
Albers (R)

The Astros should just about balance out the rotation, and their lineup got a little better from adding Lee. There is a problem, though, with a middle infield where both guys threaten to post a sub-.300 OBP. Having two out machines in the lineup besides the pitcher is not all that great, and getting on base more would help given that the team has a couple of mashers (Lee, Berkman, Ensberg).

St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup
Eckstein - SS
Duncan - LF
Pujols - 1B
Edmonds - CF
Rolen - 3B
Encarnacion - RF
Kennedy - 2B
Y. Molina - C

Rotation
Carpenter - (R)
Wells (R)
Reyes (R)
Wainwright (R)
Looper (R)

Good News: Albert Pujols. Bad News: Kip Wells. Good news: Braden Looper isn't the setup man anymore. Bad news: neither is Adam Wainwright. Worse news: Braden Looper starting this year?! Good News: Hey, they get their world series rings!

Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup
2- Estrada
3 - Fielder
4 - Weeks
5 - Coskie
6 - Hardy
7 - Jenkins
8 - Hall
9 - Hart

Rotation
Capuano (L)
Sheets (R)
Suppan (R)
Bush (R)
Vargas (R)

This is a nice rotation, aside from Suppan. Suppan will suffer from the defense on this team. The lineup will have not a lot, but some potency, but the key really is Ben Sheets' health. If Sheets pitches 100 innings, repeat last year's performance. A good 150 innings gets them to .500 ball, and 200 innings wins the division.

Predicted Finish
well, honesly, you got me on 1-4. Really. Here's what I'll guess though.
Cardinals
Brewers (-1 game)
Astros (-2 games)
Cubs (-3 games)
Reds (-18 games)
Pirates (-20 games)

The error margins are as such where the top 4 are up for grabs entirely.

A Look at the Division - NL West

Not only is it a good idea, but I think I might do this for the rest of the divisions.

Who's new: B. Molina, J. Lopez, M. Giles, Kouzmanoff, L. Gonzalez, Sledge, Pierre, Roberts, Taveras, Schmidt, Zito, Johnson, R. Lopez, Maddux, Wolf

Here are my predictions.

5th Place - Rockies
Their pitching is going to be a bit worse, which as always is bad news. The Giants won't be that much worse either. Further, everyone else's pitching got better, so it's gonna suck to be the Rockies.

4th Place - Giants
They lost Schmidt and got Zito. Bonds will continue to get worse, but will be the best LF in the NL until people stop walking him. They still need to rebuild, though, and it will be painful unless they have some amazing rookies, if they ever do that. They'll be 5-10 games better than the Rockies.

3rd Place - Diamondbacks
Not by too much, as they'll give the Dodgers and Padres a good run. They stepped up their pitching staff with Johnson, who isn't in the AL East anymore. Hernandez should rebound from an off-year last year, and this team may finish 2nd or higher.

2nd Place - Padres
They got Marcus Giles, sure, but he's clearly not suited to being a leadoff hitter (see Atlanta, 2006). Their offense still does not stand to pose a threat to anybody, and they lost Piazza to the A's. They did get Maddux, but Woody Williams had a good year and was a bit younger. Maddux will give them an ERA around 3.8, likely, but as he ages his control over the corners will fade more.

Division Champs - LA
Well, come on. As we all know, JD Drew's 100 RBI can be made up by anyone who shows up, but his times on base are a little trickier. The Dodgers have a lineup that can produce 1-8, and I am a bit optimistic about Pierre; I think his OBP will get to about .340 or so. Overall, it would seem that the Dodger outfield defense improved, as Drew replaced by Gonzalez is more than covered by Pierre replacing Lofton. Pierre has a bit of a better arm, but can get to balls much more capably. The pitching staff got better, and having Penny at the #3 spot gives the rotation very good depth, especially when Schmidt will probably be a 3.6 ERA pitcher this year as well. The depth of the organization is unmatched as well, with Billingsley and Kuo as the 5/6 starters, Laroche waiting at third, Loney waiting at first, Kemp waiting in the outfield, and pitchers such as Greg Miller, Mark Alexander and Scott Elbert.

This will be a close race, and the 1-2-3 teams in the division will all be within 5 games, leaving San Francisco in the dust. Barry Zito will win at most 14 games, and probably more like 11. Best candidates for 20 wins are Penny, Schmidt, Webb, Johnson, Peavy.

Jason Schmidt - A cut above?

The first thing to notice is that I did these on my desktop in Excel rather than on my laptop in Minitab. The second thing to notice is that Schmidt is a much better pitcher than most of the Dodger Starters. For one thing, he's got a much better strikeout rate, even after last year featured his worst numbers in that category. As a result, he peaks a lot higher. His greater durability will help this area as well. What is particularly good is that in the time series chart, it is evident that he does not stay below 40 for long, meaning he does not slump much, but in fact he tends to stay mostly in above average territory.

Schmidt has some health concerns, and his injury would hurt the Dodgers the most. Also, Schmidt has to adjust to his new team. This will mean more offense (no difference here unless he pitches differently), but a new defense (better? we'll see), along with different park factors for home games (which may prove unfavorable). However, if he is healthy and maintains this level of performance, he should be considered the staff ace.

Here are the descriptive stats:

Starts: 32
Mean: 55.22
SE: 2.76
Min: 20
Q1: 48
Med: 53
Q3: 65.25
Max: 84

Brett Tomko

Ladies and Gentlemen, Brett Tomko will not be starting for us.

Tomko could be a very good starter, but only if you get him on the upswing. As the time series chart shows, you could run a sine function on when he'll be good. As such, he's really better suited to the bullpen; at times, he's a setup man or fill-in closer. Otherwise, he should be behind Elmer Dessens, and you can do that with a bullpen. The histogram just looks silly on him, as he's just all over the place in terms of performance. He can be pretty good, but for the most part, he's not.

Here are his descriptive stats:

Starts: 15

Mean: 46.20

SE: 4.61

Min: 21

Q1: 28

Q2: 47

Q3: 61

Max: 74

Brad Penny

Penny's histogram shows some bimodal data, and with a slight skewing to the right.

The time series plot is a bit more telling, as it reminds us that Penny performed worse in the second half of the season, when he was playing through some pain. As a result, he pitched basically without a breaking ball, and did not peak nearly as often as he did with one.

Penny showed some excellent potential, though, particularly early in the season. In August and September, though, he demonstrated his fallability as well as his poor health. Could Brad Penny lose 30 lbs and become a health nut, he could likely be one of the best pitchers in the game. As it is now, though, he's that frustrating C+/B- gifted kid.

Here are his numbers:

Starts: 33

Mean: 49.76

SE: 2.80

Min: 24

Q1: 35

Q2: 53

Q3: 63

Max: 76

The histogram shows the skewness, but what is really telling is that the mean and median are more than a standard error apart.

More: The LA Times has a bit more after talking to Brad Penny. This I found particularly insightful:

A split-finger changeup Penny developed last spring gave him a devastating third pitch to go with his 96 mph fastball and sharp curve. But he stopped using the splitter at mid-season because he was afraid it might lead to arm problems.

"It's hard on the arm and I shied away from it," he said. "Then I had trouble with my curve for a while, so I was out there throwing one pitch. It's tough to get by just with your fastball."

The rest of the article is here. Also encouraging is that Penny lost 10 lbs in the offseason. A step in the right direction, certainly. I wonder if he'll start throwing a cutter with that fastball and curveball. . .

Billingsley's Charts

At a mere glance, Billingsley did not appear to have skewness, but a somewhat more symmetrical distribution. Further, he did not fare as well with several shorter starts toward the end of the season. Nonetheless, Billingsley put together a decent performance, and for the most part displayed a general upward trend in game scores.

Starts: 16
Mean: 50.13
Min: 26
Q1: 40.75
Q2: 50
Q3: 58.5
Max: 79
P-Value: 0.686

Billingsley had the distinction of pitching the best game, by game score of any Dodger starter this season, topping Greg Maddux's masterful 8-inning performance on 68 pitches. Being 22 years old suggests that he will get better, as well. Especially considering how late in the season it was before his control finally started to look respectable.

The Low-Down on D-Lowe

The above graphs are a representation of Derek Lowe's starts over the 2006 season. The graph on the left, the histogram, shows a clear left-skewed tendency, demonstrating that while the majority of Lowe's starts were good, he also demonstrated the ability to make very bad starts. The graph on the right is simply a time series plot, which shows his game score by start number. The significant dip in the graph is where Lowe faltered in July. A bit more quantitatively, here's how he did:

Starts: 34
Mean: 51.59
SE Mean: 3.04
Min: 9
Q1: 41.25
Q2: 52.5
Q3: 67
Max: 75

Additionally, I ran a two-sample, two-tailed t-test against the Dodgers overall, and the observed p-value was .378, so Lowe's starts were not significantly different from an average Dodger start, which one would expect from the guy who made the most starts for the game.

But apart from that awful July, which was keyed by that nightmarish start against the Twins, Lowe had a pretty good year. Looks like a 16 game winner (17 starts with game scores over 52.5), and without that July he might have been a Cy Young winner. He turned in 215 innings, as well.

Lowe also has fairly consistent drop-off patterns, and it looks like the worst obstacle he could face would be a repeat of July. Apart from that, he's one of the top starters in the game.