A Look at the Division - NL West

Not only is it a good idea, but I think I might do this for the rest of the divisions.

Who's new: B. Molina, J. Lopez, M. Giles, Kouzmanoff, L. Gonzalez, Sledge, Pierre, Roberts, Taveras, Schmidt, Zito, Johnson, R. Lopez, Maddux, Wolf

Here are my predictions.

5th Place - Rockies
Their pitching is going to be a bit worse, which as always is bad news. The Giants won't be that much worse either. Further, everyone else's pitching got better, so it's gonna suck to be the Rockies.

4th Place - Giants
They lost Schmidt and got Zito. Bonds will continue to get worse, but will be the best LF in the NL until people stop walking him. They still need to rebuild, though, and it will be painful unless they have some amazing rookies, if they ever do that. They'll be 5-10 games better than the Rockies.

3rd Place - Diamondbacks
Not by too much, as they'll give the Dodgers and Padres a good run. They stepped up their pitching staff with Johnson, who isn't in the AL East anymore. Hernandez should rebound from an off-year last year, and this team may finish 2nd or higher.

2nd Place - Padres
They got Marcus Giles, sure, but he's clearly not suited to being a leadoff hitter (see Atlanta, 2006). Their offense still does not stand to pose a threat to anybody, and they lost Piazza to the A's. They did get Maddux, but Woody Williams had a good year and was a bit younger. Maddux will give them an ERA around 3.8, likely, but as he ages his control over the corners will fade more.

Division Champs - LA
Well, come on. As we all know, JD Drew's 100 RBI can be made up by anyone who shows up, but his times on base are a little trickier. The Dodgers have a lineup that can produce 1-8, and I am a bit optimistic about Pierre; I think his OBP will get to about .340 or so. Overall, it would seem that the Dodger outfield defense improved, as Drew replaced by Gonzalez is more than covered by Pierre replacing Lofton. Pierre has a bit of a better arm, but can get to balls much more capably. The pitching staff got better, and having Penny at the #3 spot gives the rotation very good depth, especially when Schmidt will probably be a 3.6 ERA pitcher this year as well. The depth of the organization is unmatched as well, with Billingsley and Kuo as the 5/6 starters, Laroche waiting at third, Loney waiting at first, Kemp waiting in the outfield, and pitchers such as Greg Miller, Mark Alexander and Scott Elbert.

This will be a close race, and the 1-2-3 teams in the division will all be within 5 games, leaving San Francisco in the dust. Barry Zito will win at most 14 games, and probably more like 11. Best candidates for 20 wins are Penny, Schmidt, Webb, Johnson, Peavy.