The above graphs are a representation of Derek Lowe's starts over the 2006 season. The graph on the left, the histogram, shows a clear left-skewed tendency, demonstrating that while the majority of Lowe's starts were good, he also demonstrated the ability to make very bad starts. The graph on the right is simply a time series plot, which shows his game score by start number. The significant dip in the graph is where Lowe faltered in July. A bit more quantitatively, here's how he did:
Starts: 34
Mean: 51.59
SE Mean: 3.04
Min: 9
Q1: 41.25
Q2: 52.5
Q3: 67
Max: 75
Additionally, I ran a two-sample, two-tailed t-test against the Dodgers overall, and the observed p-value was .378, so Lowe's starts were not significantly different from an average Dodger start, which one would expect from the guy who made the most starts for the game.
But apart from that awful July, which was keyed by that nightmarish start against the Twins, Lowe had a pretty good year. Looks like a 16 game winner (17 starts with game scores over 52.5), and without that July he might have been a Cy Young winner. He turned in 215 innings, as well.
Lowe also has fairly consistent drop-off patterns, and it looks like the worst obstacle he could face would be a repeat of July. Apart from that, he's one of the top starters in the game.
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