The last 6 spots on the Roster

As it is, the Dodgers have 6 more spots to fill on the 25 man roster. Here's who's already there:

SP(3): Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw
RP (4): Jonathan Broxton, Corey Wade, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chi Kuo,
C (1): Russell Martin
INF (6): James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Mark Loretta, Delwyn Young
OF (5): Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Jason Repko


There is a vacancy for one more infielder, a backup catcher, two relief pitchers (late inning short reliever and long reliever), and two starting pitchers.

Backup Catcher
This is not an important position, except that Russell Martin will be driven into the ground by age 30 if he doesn't get a good one. We are constantly told Martin is tough and durable, but he still plays like he's out of gas in September. Martin has a career .806 OPS, which by month breaks down to .876/.814/.825/.816/.767/.755

That performance is indicated in the above chart. Basically, he's a superstar in April, and a natural pick for the all-star team, but the lack of a good backup brings him down. That and the stupidity of the manager. Our best options are as follows:

Paul LoDuca - familiar, kind of a light hitter, implicated in Mitchell Report
Pudge Rodriguez - excellent defender, no plate discipline, would cost money, might not accept backup job, but would get plenty of PT
Michael Barrett - only a couple years removed from being a good catcher. Suddenly lost ability to hit for average. Still only 32, though he's been in the majors for a decade. Probably a good pick.
Greg Zaun - about 25% CS, power fading, good for a .340 OBP

Of those options, I'd go with Barrett. He'd look to pick up more playing time later in the season, and he's a good enough hitter that Martin would possibly only catch 120 games, which would make him a better hitter.

Two Starting Pitchers
The expectation here is one guy who could be counted on to last a whole season and one injury prone guy to make room for McDonald to start. I'll also predict the Dodgers sign one guy to a 1 year deal (possibly with an option) and one guy with a multi year deal. For the injury prone guy, I present the following candidates:
Pedro Martinez - all time leader in ERA+
Randy Johnson - all time leader in height
Ben Sheets - all time leader in being a fun interview
Curt Schilling - Joe Torre's nemesis from 2001, 2004, 2007

And here are some guys who seem like they could last a decent amount of time:
Andy Pettitte - Roger Clemens' buddy
Derek Lowe - underpaid the last 4 years, prepare to overpay him
Jon Garland - delightfully medicore starter, but good for 200 IP

My choice would be a 3 year, $45 million deal for Lowe and a 1 year, $10 million deal for Pedro (with $10 million team option or $2 million buyout).

Relief Pitchers
I don't think there's any reason to try to go for anyone other than an in-house option here. McDonald as the 7th inning guy and Stults as the long man seems like the most logical thing.

25th man
I go with Chin-Lung Hu. I think the guy could be useful as a pinch hitter or late inning replacement.

As for getting Manny Ramirez, I'd rule it out unless we trade Juan Pierre and/or Andruw Jones. After all, the Yankees are looking for a CF...

Free Agent Pitchers

Closers
Top picks
Francisco Rodriguez
Brian Fuentes
Brad Lidge
These guys have a good shot at being good over the course of their new contracts. Fuentes, because he's older might get a 2 or 3 year deal, but expect 4 years for Lidge and K-Rod. Lidge will command a premium after a great comeback season as he returned to dominance and threw the last pitch of the World Series, although he did take quite a hit from Ryan Howard immediately after.

Runners up
Jason Isringhausen
Joe Nathan
Mariano Rivera

These guys have been successful closers forever, which is the problem. Mariano stays in NY, no question, don't know why he's on the list. Nathan will be an attractive grab. Isringhausen is a bit of an injury risk, but he's not going to go for too long a deal, and he's still good.

Um, no
Eric Gagne
TrevorHoffman
Todd Jones

Hoffman and Jones are too old. Gagne has lost his dominance, but will still command an $8 million salary, probably from Ed Wade.

Lefty Relievers
A category for adding depth, but not spending more than like $3 million. This includes:
Joe Beimel, Alan Embree, Scott Eyre, Aaron Fultz, Will Ohman, Darren Oliver

Lefty Starters
Grand Prize
CC Sabathia

He'll dazzle you until he blows his arm out. And he's kind of fat. But the dude can pitch, and he'll get a nice deal with the Yankees.

Excellent picks:
Oliver Perez
Andy Pettitte

Pettitte might bring his 4 T's to the Dodgers, and he's a good dependable lefty starter. Perez is a good pick too - solid strikeout rate, and he's young enough to be valuable for a while. Perez tends to be lights out or terrible, more often lights out, though.

One-year deal club:
Randy Johnson
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Odalis Perez
Randy Wolf
Jeremy Affeldt
Scott Downs

These players are all old, injury prone, or of questionable talent. But teams will want a lefty starter, so none will be unemployed.

Righty Relievers
Luis Ayala
Joe Borowski
Juan Cruz
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Tom Gordon
LaTroy Hawkins
Guillermo Mota
Rudy Seanez
Julian Tavarez
David Weathers
Dan Wheeler
Kerry Wood

Dempster, Gordon, Farnsworth and Wood will draw the most interest, Wheeler and Tavarez decent picks too. Not a category to spend more than $3 million, though.

Right handed starters
Premium:
John Lackey
Derek Lowe
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Curt Schilling

With all eyes on CC, it's easy to forget how many good pitchers that aren't fat and overpriced there are. Lackey has been constantly brilliant in Southern California, as has Derek Lowe. Burnett is a nice pick, but like Sheets, he's a solid injury risk. Curt Schilling is the best 1 year deal available.

Pretty Good
John Garland
Brad Penny
Kyle Lohse
Paul Byrd

These are #3 starters in a good roation, #2 in most, #1 in a weaker rotation.

Bit Risky:
Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon
Livan Hernandez
Orlando Hernandez
Jason Jennings
Pedro Martinez

The career leader in ERA+ might have to settle for a 1 year deal, and the Hernandez brothers aren't as young as they once were. Jason Jennings got hurt at just the wrong time, so he's an interesting player to take a flyer on. Colon is a fatty, and Clement hasn't been the same since he left Chicago, although much of that can be blamed on Dusty Baker.

Let's talk money

How much would you pay Manny Ramirez?

The Dodgers have to consider that not only can they afford Ramirez, but they will make more money as a result of having him. Attendance was higher in August and September, and a lot of Manny-related merchandise was sold. Even with only anecdotal evidence, it's not a stretch to think that signing Manny would be worthwhile, even for a monster contract.

The most important realization in the contract is that time is worth more than money. The Seattle Mariners did not hire Kim Ng, so the Dodgers might be able to escape the damage done to the arbitration process in the Ryan Howard case, which will save them money on Broxton, Ethier, and Martin (Billingsley and Kemp are likely not arbitraiton eligible yet), who might want to avoid arbitration. The point is, the Dodgers have kept a fair amount of their costs under control. Also, with their market size and potential to reach 4,000,000 fans with Ramirez, $30,000,000 per year is not a stretch. For Ramirez to be a valuable and productive player beyond the next three seasons, though, would be hard to say. He's got good power and good patience; the power will fade eventually, and the patience will hold until his eyesight declines. His defense is subpar and will not get better, though, which would make him more valuable as a DH, where he would not have to be in the field. The Dodgers don't have as many other DH options available, though.

Personally, I'd go with $80,000,000 over 3 years. That's not too long a commitment and it's plenty of money - Ramirez could easily net $10,000,000 afterward going anywhere (and he'll probably need to DH by then). I don't see the Dodgers offering more than $60,000,000 over 3, though. The best way might be to offer $90,000,000 over 4 years in a heavily front-loaded contract ($5m deferred sign bonus, $30m, $30m, $15m, $10m), and then, they can add an opt-out clause before years 3 and 4. Essentially, it's $65 million over two years with player options for $15 million and $10 million. If Ramirez wants to opt out for more money, no problem, LA might want better defense by then, if not, then he can still play and OPS around .900 at age 38-39.

The Pitching Staff

Starters definitely coming back:

Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Clayton Kershaw

at this point, Billingsley can be though of as the ace of the staff, except by Bill Plaschke, who will hold his NLCS performance against him for the next couple years. Kuroda turned out to be a rather pleasant surprise - doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but still has good command of the strike zone and works efficiently. Kershaw showed some potential, and as he develops his changeup and slider/cutter he will climb his way up the rotation.

Potential free agent Dodgers:

Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Greg Maddux

I would have expected Lowe to have been traded, but instead the Dodgers face the possibility of only getting two draft picks for him. Lowe has been good every year of his contract, getting his groundball outs, having good command of the strike zone, and not being homer prone. If the Dodgers could only score runs when he starts. Lowe will probably be looking for at least 3 years/$40 million, which might be a lot to pay a guy who'll be 36 next year.

Penny's a tougher case. He's got quite the upside, but he's an injury risk. And a really crappy pitcher when injured. It's tough to say if he'll come back healthy, although he's shown that he can (see 2005), and it might be worthwhile. Penny gets paid $2,000,000 if the Dodgers buy out his option, so keeping the opening day starter is a matter of $7.25 million. Not a bad deal, compared to say Randy Wolf.

Maddux is a candidate for retirement, although he still seems to have a little something left. But I do mean a little something - he's shown that he can get hit pretty hard last year, when his homer rate spiked. Still, he could probably be had for around $8 million; I could see the Dodgers offering him arbitration and him accepting, or even going for a lower offer with LA.

Free Agents on the Market:

CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Ben Sheets
Jon Garland
Pedro Martinez
Jamie Moyer
Mark Mulder
Oliver Perez

The Dodgers will make an offer to Sabathia, but they will not get him because he will make Kevin Brown look cheap. They will be relieved when he tears his rotator cuff in May while wearing the pinstripes in the Bronx. AJ Burnett is an injury waiting to happen, but is still good when healthy - I wouldn't be surprised if he matches JD Drew's Boston deal. I can't help but think he'd remind Colletti too much of JD Drew, though. Ben Sheets would be a fun pick - he's just as goofy as Manny Ramirez, except that he's just as injury prone as Nomar Garciaparra. I wouldn't give him more than a one year deal, and I don't know if any other GM would either. Garland might be intriguing, especially since Anaheim traded for him last year, but I wouldn't expect anything.

Pedro Martinez would be a nice signing - get him to come back where he began his career, and where Tommy Lasorda said he wouldn't be any good, the dumbass that he is. Maybe the Dodgers trade him at the deadline for a crappy second baseman. Either way, he's probably worth about $8 million or so on the free agent market now. Jamie Moyer is older than dirt and hasn't played for the Dodgers yet. Mark Mulder is intriguing, in a Jason Schmidt kind of way. Finally, Oliver Perez has nice strikeout abilities and isn't that old yet, so he might be a sensible signing, I could see him going for about 4 years $45 million in this market.

In House:

James McDonald
Hong-Chi Kuo
Eric Stults
Scott Elbert

McDonald even got the support of Bill Plaschke to be the #5 starter next year, and he'd be a good pick. Granted, he hasn't pitched much more than 150 innings in a season, but the 5th starter can be skipped, and Kershaw can probably go for up to 200, especially under the watchful eye and quick hook of Joe Torre (who knows that after 100 pitches, pitchers don't last long). McDonald's minor league peripherals suggest that the solid player we saw was no fluke, and as Billingsley showed us, minor league K rates sometimes take time to translate to the bigs. Kuo is an option as a starter, especially if one feels it is necessary for a lefty starter, but he is also a very good bullpen option, good against left and right handed hitters. Stults is that 6th starter guy that's useful but you don't know how long you want to keep him, particularly when he gives up as many homers as he does. I think McDonald will be in the rotation by the end of the season, although I don't know if he'll start in the pen first. Working as a reliever helped Billingsley get into a rhythym as a strikeout guy rather than a lucky RISP guy, but McDonald could be fine with either - guess it depends how many major league innings to subject him to. Scott Elbert isn't quite Greg Miller, but he really needs to stop walking people so much, and might need time in AAA to get that down.

My Rotation:

1) Chad Billingsley (R)
2) Hiroki Kuroda (R)
3) Oliver Perez (L)
4) Clayton Kershaw (L)
5) James McDonald (R)

Relievers

Definitely coming back:

Jonathan Broxton
Hong-Chi Kuo
Ramon Troncoso
Cory Wade
Scott Elbert

Broxton is the closer, who is prone to an occasional misgiving, but generally gets the job done. But let's face it, he's better than Eric Gagne is now. Kuo will likely stay in the pen as quite the fixture for a lefty power pitcher. If he's healthy, he is awesome. If he's not, we might not see him the rest of the year. Wade was lucky and Troncoso unlucky on balls in play, but both exhibited a good K/BB and acceptable HR rate. Wade struck out fewer than Troncoso's batter an inning, but he also walked only 3 more batters than Troncoso in 33 1/3 more innings. And while Troncoso might get luckier next year, it is also worth noting that Wade had the much better career minor league numbers (K/BB over 4!). Wade is 3 months younger. Nonetheless, both are good pitchers. Finally, Scott Elbert didn't have a pretty major league debut, but he's back from injury, and with a bit of work on his control could probably be another good left-handed pitcher. I'd expect him to start in the minors to get his control down.

Uncertain for next year:

Takashi Saito

Saito might retire, because he's old and his injury proneness is catching up with him. On the other hand, he might also want to keep pitching and being a dominant member of the pen. As it is, he might still be the closer next year, because when healthy, he's got a decent fastball with great breaking stuff.

Free Agents:

Joe Beimel
Scott Proctor

See you proctor. Beimel will be missed by Troy from West Virginia, unless the Dodgers decide to keep him for some reason. Still, not a bad run for Beimel, though good riddance for Proctor.

Outfield talk

Now that I blew predicting the NLCS, let's plan for next year.

I think the infield has been discussed fairly well, but it's plain to see that there's not a whole lot of room to improve there, short of a trade. Every so often one will see things about an Adrian Beltre trade, but the wild card out there is a Chipper Jones trade. Beltre is probably the better option because he'll be more durable at a position where the Dodgers don't have depth, he's the superior defender, and he won't cost as much. Chipper Jones could be a Manny-like acquisition, you would get him to win now, but you don't know if you'll hold onto him. While Jones did say that he grew up a Dodger fan, one would think he'd want to bolster his HOF case as a one team player on the Braves (and he definitely has trade veto powers).

So, let's look at the outfield and later on, the rotation.

Outfield
Needs: Left Fielder
Currently have - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Trade Bait - Juan Pierre
DFA Candidate - Andruw Jones. Or he could magically get better and be the starting CF. After all, this is when he's supposed to play for his big contract. I wouldn't expect him to be in LA unless he's on the DL all season or the Dodgers trade for Chipper.
In house - Jason Repko, Delwyn Young. Neither is probably where you'd want a starting outfielder to be, particularly given the state of the infield, although Repko is capable of having productive months when given regular playing time (see April 2006), though in a small sample, that's not too hard.

In the wings - Xavier Paul might see some time mid-season

Free Agents by likelihood- Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr

Ned Colletti would totally pull the trigger on signing Griffey if the Chisox don't pick up his option. Otherwise, it seems like the Dodgers won't pay big time for Ramirez, at least not in years. Colletti hasn't given anyone over 30 more than a 3 year contract, to his credit. I think the Dodgers offer Manny $85 million over 3 years, and that could do it.

Griffey could be had for one or two years at $10 million per. Abreu would go for 2-3 years at about $12 million per. Pat Burrell will get paid more than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn will probably not sign until Ramirez does though; a team that wants Ramirez would likely settle for Dunn. While it would be a very unlikely move for Colletti, I could see him doing it because Dunn's been a 40 HR guy the past 5 years and we'd be taking him from AZ, a double whammy. Dunn will likely get $80 million over 4 years, Burrell might get a bit more.

Outgoing
Pierre isn't much for bait, but he does want a trade, and he's probably still useful to someone. LA will have to eat much of his salary (probably about $20 million worth over the remaining 3 years), but one has to think that he could fit into the NL East. Philadelphia would suffer picking him up for Burrell, although he'd have some nice range in left field, but that would also put another left-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup. The Mets would make sense except they already have Endy Chavez, although outfield depth would be nice. The Nationals have Dukes, Kearns and Milledge, who are better in that outfield, so no thanks (although a Pierre for Kearns swap is believable, especially if the Nats save $10 or 12 million, although there is no substance to that, I'm purely speculating). The Braves possibly, if they need someone to be a stopgap.

I think Pierre gets traded for Endy Chavez and a 25 year old guy in AA, with LA eating $15 million. I think then that the Dodgers stick with Andruw Jones and hope for the best, as Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell will get offers ahead of Manny, the Chisox pick up Griffey's option, and Abreu goes somewhere random.

Parallel Universe

Let's say we didn't read media reports out of Boston or listen to Curt Schilling's whining. Let's see then, how else me might determine why the Red Sox would trade Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay. Further, let's assume everyone is rational.

Ramirez is 35, and Boston can pay him $20 million a year if they keep him. If not, they get two draft picks in the offseason. Boston is in a win-now situation, and since the Yankees will be bidding for all the good free agents this offseason and the Rays have built a good club, Boston needs to hold onto their core. But this part of their core is aging and is at risk to be injured and have his performance decline.

To replace him in that position, they would be looking at someone who could stay there for a long time. This would be someone younger who projects to have a longer career, maybe a power/speed guy, maybe someone who can be really good defensively. Jason Bay would fit that description nicely, and he's already locked into a contract where he would make less than half of what Manny would make as he reaches his prime.

Pittsburgh is not going to take Manny for Bay, because they don't have that kind of money. Besides, Pittsburgh isn't ready to contend; they still need a pitching staff and could stand to bolster their lineup a bit. A rental of Manny Ramirez would not help them in the postseason, or even to be a winning ballclub. So, thanks, but no thanks. Pittsburgh wants to do what Baltimore did, get 4 or 5 young players for one star player.

Boston does not want to trade their top young players, but they're willing to give up a left fielder for a left fielder. Pittsburgh will not be satisfied with the young players Boston can deliver, so they need someone to take Ramirez. Enter the Dodgers.

Ned Colletti knows what he's doing - LaRoche has been injured and it would be too risky to expose the extent of the damage from that injury, even though his 2008 minor league numbers lack the power he showed the previous two seasons. Sunk costs as they are, Colletti wanted to sell LaRoche as high as possible, and at the same time, he knew that Frank McCourt would throw him out on his ass if he didn't land someone good. This deal comes across to him and naturally it looks like a no-brainer. A guy who's had shoulder and hand injuries possibly destroy his shot at being a good hitting 3rd baseman for a shot at getting to the postseason with one of the best hitters in the game. Naturally, he pulled the trigger, and made the boss man even happier by all the extra revenue that comes in thanks to the new superstar. In his position, he even insists that Boston chips in $7 million to pay for the rest of 2008 for Manny. No problem, says Boston, because they'll save $11 million next year by having Bay instead.

Makes sense for everyone. But what about those media reports? Well, Boston had to see it coming, and they like to burn players as they leave, but then again, so do the Braves. It makes it easier for the fans to swallow. Also, reporters like to sell the gossip stories, because those sell papers. And that's just the way the Boston media does things. But the media storyline is probably just a cover for what was actually going on - Boston and Pittsburgh made moves for the long term, and LA made the best move they could, which does nothing in the long term, but a lot in the short term.

Well, That Was a Shocker

Ok, so it turns out that the NLCS will be Dodgers-Phillies, but LA swept (I did correctly call Phillies in 4 for the first round). The coverage of the Dodgers and Cubs seems to say almost entirely not so much that the Dodgers were good as that the Cubs were just awful. After all, they had the better regular season record, they had the better defense, etc. But as Billy Beane can tell you, the postseason is a crapshoot.

To be fair though, the Dodgers were a better team than their record suggests. Furcal replacing Berroa is huge at short, and Brad Penny and Andruw Jones are both not on the postseason roster. Manny was not with the team all year, nor was Casey Blake. DeWitt has shown himself to be a streaky player, and currently he's on a good one. Juan Pierre has been a bench player since Manny's acquisition. Scott Proctor stopped getting the ball in key situations - now that goes to Kuo, Broxton, Wade. To be fair, Chan Ho Park gave up the long ball and should have had a higher ERA, but that's all for that part. The Cubs, on the other hand, had a couple of guys having career years - 21 homers for Mark Derosa, an effective year as a starter for Ryan Dempster, for example.

LA faces what was one of the best offenses during the regular season. But remember, they already took on the best of the regular season. And while the Dodgers pitching will be tough to beat, Philly's staff is no group of slouches. When the two teams met earlier in the season, one team was having a good streak while the other had a poor one, resulting in two four game sweeps by the home team. Let's look head to head:

Starting Pitchers (based on NLDS):

Lowe vs Hamels

Billingsley vs Myers

Moyer vs Kuroda

Blanton vs Maddux (?)


Personally I'd like to see Moyer vs Maddux, a combined 87 years old. Wild cards to start are the two left-handed K men, Kershaw and Kuo. Kuo is a health question mark, but he's got excellent stuff and he could come in and surprise Philadelphia. Kershaw could do the job as well, but it seems like the Dodgers would be foolish not to use at least one left-handed starter against the Phillies. The edge here has to go to LA, though, particularly if we see Kershaw.

One thing that surprised me was that LA didn't use half of their pitching staff. We saw Wade, Broxton, Saito and Maddux out of the bullpen, but no Beimel, no Kershaw, no McDonald, no Park. I would expect to see more of some of the guys who didn't get playing time, so Torre can use some new tricks in the NLCS.

Outfield

Manny vs Burrell

Kemp vs Victorino

Ethier vs Werth

Manny beats Burrell, although Pat the bat is not known for his glove, he is a better hitter than Soriano. Ethier edges Werth, because he can hit for average. Kemp edges Victorino because he's got a bit more pop than the Flyin Hawaiian.

Infield

Loney vs Howard

DeWitt vs Utley

Furcal vs Rollins

Blake vs Feliz

Howard edges Loney because first base defense only matters so much. DeWitt is pretty good, but Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball. Furcal edges Rollins, who did not deserve a single award he won last year - Furcal is the rangier shortstop that gets on base more. And Casey Blake doesn't have Pedro Feliz's glove, but Pedro Feliz doesn't get to swing his glove at the plate, even though he probably needs to to hit anything.

Carlos Ruiz has nothing on Russell Martin.

If you look at who's playing over their head, a couple players come to mind on each team still. Ethier's got that BABIP thing going, so if he's hot he's good, if not, then, um, ugh. Not much else for LA. Brad Lidge is not as good as he was this year - no way he only gives up 2 homers in 69.3 innings pitched - and only 1 at home.

I'll say Dodgers in 6 on this one.

NL Playoff Matchups

This will get very interesting, because nobody in the NL knows who they're playing yet, although we know three teams that will be in it. And we know the Cubs and Phillies play game 1 at home, and the Dodgers play game 3 at home. It comes down to one game for the wildcard, and here are the wildcard contenders (both of whom are the home team):

Milwaukee Brewers
vs Cubs
Angel Guzman (6.13 Career ERA) vs CC Sabathia

The Brewers are fighting for their postseason, while the Cubs are playing for the chance to play the Mets (4-2 cubs for the season series) instead of the Dodgers (5-2 cubs). The Cubs should prefer the Mets: in 6 games this season, they outscored them 41 to 26 while in 7 games they outscored the Dodgers by only 1 run, 19 to 18. That being said, the Brewers will be more than willing to let CC go 12 innings and 200 pitches if that's what it takes to win this one. Expect at least 8 innings for CC and a Brewers win. Day games in that park are also just plain weird because of the glass.

New York Mets
vs Florida Marlins
Scott Olsen vs Oliver Perez

Oliver Perez is one of those guys people think is pretty good but still find disappointment with his high walk totals and above average HR rate. The fact is though that the guy is 27 and isn't going to pitch that differently. Still, the Mets have had a solid lineup, although they face another solid one. I'd say edge Mets because of the way Olsen has declined. The Mets are overall beating the Marlins in the season series by a reasonable margin.

Tiebreaker Game
Seth McClung vs Pedro Martinez

Two or Three Years ago, Pedro would have made this a guaranteed win. As it is, he's not doing too well, but he is probably the Mets' best option. McClung isn't anything special, though, so if nothing else, it'll be a battle of sluggers, but given Pedro's homer rate this year, I'd have to say edge Brewers.

So since I'm predicting Brewers for the wild card, here's who faces off then:

Dodgers vs Cubs

Brewers vs Phillies


1) Dodgers vs Cubs
Rotation

Game 1: Derek Lowe vs Ryan Dempster
Game 2: Chad Billingsley vs Carlos Zambrano
Game 3: Rich Harden vs Hiroki Kuroda
Game 4: Ted Lilly vs Greg Maddux

Up until Lilly vs Maddux, this looks like it's fairly even, perhaps even favoring LA. Not only has Billingsley had a good year, but Zambrano hasn't pitched since Sept 2 due to shoulder problems. Odds are that if he does pitch that he's not all better, and if that's the case he'll be down some velocity, have flatter pitches, and be easier to hit.

Starting Lineup:

LF: Alfonso Soriano vs Manny Ramirez
CF: Jim Edmonds vs Matt Kemp
RF: Kosuke Fukudome vs Andre Ethier

Manny is a better hitter than Sori, with better OBP skills. Soriano, though, has the defensive edge. Something that you never thought you'd hear 5 years ago. The reverse is probably true in center field, although Edmonds ability to read the ball probably gives him a slight defensive edge. In Right, though, no contest: all about Ethier.

1B: Derrek Lee vs James Loney
2B: Mark DeRosa vs Jeff Kent/Blake DeWitt
3B: Aramis Ramirez vs Casey Blake/Blake DeWitt
SS: Ryan Theriot vs Rafael Furcal
C: Geovany Soto vs Russell Martin

The only clear advantage for the Dodgers would be if Rafael Furcal really is healthy. If he can hold up, he's definitely got it. Lee and A-Ram are top corner men, good as Loney and Blake might be. DeRosa has done well as a Cub, and will probably continue to do so. Soto has emerged as a good young catcher and has hit for power more, though Martin has honed his on-base skills so well that it's really hard to discount him.

The Cubs have a bit of an edge on offense. It will probably come down to bullpens and luck to determine this series. I'll be optimistic and say Dodgers in 5, though.


Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers

Two teams with power hitting lineups and iffy pitching depth. The Phillies had Brad Lidge, the Brewers had Eric Gagne. I don't care about this one as much, and it's late. Just guessing, though, I'd say edge to Philadelphia. They hit for average and get on base more. Phillies in 4, because CC won't start against Hamels.

Jayson Stark on Manny

The accusations against Ramirez are that he dogged it during July before the trade, sinking his value. He must have been really awful right?

Yeah, .340/.447/.627 awful.

But that's the whole month; what about from the all-star break to the trade?

He hit .351/.467/.622.

He was actually a little better for that part of July.

Now let's read what Jayson Stark wrote.

For a man who decided his personal net worth was more important than an entire franchise and all the people who played with him, covered for him, depended on him?

Sheez. How sad is that?

"It really bothers me," one GM said this week of the Manny-mania lovefest that has unfolded in L.A. "What he did in Boston was criminal. Now he goes there, and everything's OK? No, sir. It doesn't change the fact that how he got there was criminal."

Remember, .351/.467/.622 is criminal. You want my guess as to which GM said that? Brian Cashman. Let's remember that Ramirez has made trade requests every year since 2004. Let's also remember that his performance in Boston was still quite good and useful.

OK, here's why you should care: Because this could easily morph into a giant problem for every franchise; for the entire sport, in fact.

If Manny Ramirez wanders into the free-agent market this winter and gets anything close to the four years and $100 million he believes he'll get, think about the message that would send, the precedent that would set.

First of all, does it piss anyone else off when MLB deemed synonymous with the entire sport of baseball? There are other levels, other leagues, other countries which play, and Japan won the WBC.

Secondly, if Manny Ramirez gets a 4 year $100m deal, I'll laugh. Because that would mean someone would take a chance on him being $25 million good at age 40, when we could expect a .295/.385/.455 line. Given that there's still a reasonable chance that he could have some more injuries (which were actually not all faked). On the line about Ramirez making up injuries, though, the Dodgers do that all the time with their bad players. The most recent example being Andruw Jones:

TORRE SAID there's some thought of putting AndruwJones on the disabled list to make room for the return of Nomar Garciaparra. "That knee is still sore," Torre said of Jones. "We'll see what the doctor has to say."

Ten minutes later Jones was spotted in center field trying to catch a fly ball -- hurdling the 3 1/2 -foot white fence used to hold back fans before the game, and looking like an Olympic hopeful.

Besides, the Dodgers would only accuse their young players of faking injury. Like Tony Abreu. Who really was seriously injured, and still is. Maybe Manny and LA are a good match.

But seriously, if you want to pander to Red Sox fans, that's one thing, but let's face it, Manny is a good player, and all three of these teams had good reasons to make the move. LaRoche wasn't getting playing time in LA and Pittsburgh needed a 3B. Bay is not only a good hitter but also a good defender, and is signed to a nice cheap contract; not a bad haul. Manny is a very very good hitter. It worked out all around, and Pittsburgh got a few other players too.

Infield Options 2008

The Dodgers have one sure bet for the infield in 2008: James Loney. Beyond him, much is up in the air.

Second Base
Free Agents: Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Ray Durham
In House: Blake DeWitt, Delwyn Young

As it is, Ellis is the leading candidate now for a free agent 2B signing because of Orlando Hudson's season-ending injury. Picking up Hudson would be a risky move - you don't know what he's going to do offensively. Felipe Lopez would be the low buy, and Ray Durham is an old dude who can't play defense, but at least he can get on base.

DeWitt is probably still a contender for the third base job, but don't forget Delwyn Young. Larry Bowa thinks he can play second, so that can't be ruled out yet.

Shortstop
Free Agents: Rafael Furcal, Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria
In House: Chin-Lung Hu, Russell Martin

Let's throw this out there now: Martin is not moving from behind the plate unless Saltalamacchia, etc falls in the Dodgers lap. If they were willing to trade Lowe at the deadline, this might be feasible, but now, not so much.

Furcal is an injury question. After being out almost all season and having an abysmal year at the plate (although being amazing when healthy), he's likely to take a 1 year deal. Provided he's happy in LA, I can see him staying, so it would appear he's most likely to remain a Dodger. The real question is who plays in September - if it's Furcal, then it's likely he comes back. If Furcal is hurt and Hu gets a chance and does well, Furcal will get offered arbitration so LA gets draft picks, and Hu becomes the starting shortstop. Neither other free agent option looks good, unless Hu is particularly bad in September and Furcal doesn't look like he'll be healthy soon.

Third Base
Free agents: Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Mark Teixiera*,
In House: Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin
Trade: Adrian Beltre

I mention Beltre because it seems like a DePo correction that he could enjoy, and it is true that Beltre is a good defensive 3B as well as a decent hitter. I don't see LA giving up players for him for just a year, though, but that could all depend on what Colletti is thinking on a particular day. Nomar keeps getting hurt, but it looks like he can still hit some, so he remains a viable option at third. Blake is gone. Teixiera has played 15 games at the major league level at third base, the position where he was originally drafted. He's a very good defensive first baseman, and I would be surprised if he switched back. DeWitt seems like he'll get a starting job next year, somehow, but I'm not sure where; third would seem likely.

Most Likely
Loney
DeWitt
Furcal
Nomar

This would be the most status quo of the lineups, and would make sense with DeWitt playing 2nd in Vegas, even with LaRoche gone. The goal with Furcal would be to get him back at a discount for one year, but it may only be down to about $8 million. Nomar will probably re-sign for less than he's making now, but I would guess a 2 year $12 million deal.

Loney
DeWitt
Guzman
Nomar

As much as I don't want Christian Guzman and I know Vin Scully likes saying "O-Dog," Torre and co like DeWitt more than Hu, so I'd expect to see Nomar at third and DeWitt at 2nd, and a stopgap SS in the meantime, if Fucal doesn't stay. I really don't see LA suddenly favoring Hu after letting Angel Berroa have a job for so long, unless Logan White is the new GM.

Manny?

Well we got Manny Ramirez, but it did cost us Andy LaRoche.

One thing though: Manny says he wants to stay in LA. He likes the relaxed atmosphere, being loved by fans, but having his peace off the field. At 35 he wouldn't get a 4 or 5 year contract, but one could see a 3 year deal easily to keep him here. McCourt is probably excited enough to green light Colletti to extend him, even with agent Boras.

So what does that mean?

If we keep Manny, we'll need to retain Furcal or pay for a 3B/2B. Our other viable choice would be Orlando Hudson. We could also expect about a .700 OPS from each of those players. Tony Abreu presumably would still have healthy issues.

We would also want as many homegrown options as possible. Which could mean, surprise, DY plays second. Remember also that Xavier Paul will be ready soon, so he or Ethier could be traded. It could also mean we'd find a way to accept Jones and or Pierre as a sunk cost and then just try to dump them or trade them off and pay only most of their salary.

Lineup in 2009

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
DeWitt
Hu

This actually doesn't look bad, although it does depend a good bit on Furcal's health. Otherwise, we'll see:

Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Loney
Abreu/DY
DeWitt
Hu

So Furcal looks like a good pickup. If no Manny or Furcal, then we'll probably get Sabathia or Sheets, which gives us this rotation:

Sabathia
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Kershaw

which is just plain sick, and would let me feel better about the lineup.

The Future

Because why be satisfied with the present. Currently, the Dodgers are committed to the following players next year:

2009
C - Russell Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - (Blake DeWitt)
SS - (Chin-Lung Hu)
3B - (Andy LaRoche)
LF - Andre Ethier
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Matt Kemp

SP - Brad Penny
SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Jason Schmidt
SP - Clayton Kershaw

BN - Juan Pierre (OF)
BN - Tony Abreu (INF)
BN - Young/Repko (OF)
BN - Lucas May (C)
BN - Nomar Garciaparra (INF/PH)
BN - lefty PH

RP - Jonathan Broxton
RP - Yhency Brazoban
RP - Scott Proctor
RP - Cory Wade
RP - Hong-Chi Kuo
RP - Joe Beimel

Well first, the Red is speculation on re-signing, green is speculation on call-ups for players who don't have major league service time yet, and blue is speculation on who we'd get from NRIs. The problem with this estimate is that it assumes no Ned factor. Colletti, despite being the incumbent, keeps wanting to make a huge signing in the offseason. He blew a bunch of money on Pierre and Schmidt, Andruw Jones last year.

Leaving via free agency then would be:
Derek Lowe
Esteban Loaiza
Rafael Furcal

The Dodgers will offer Lowe and Furcal arbitration, unless they're insane, netting them 5 first round draft picks, potentially.

What the hell is going on with DeWitt over LaRoche

The problem with Dewitt at 2nd is that Torre likes him too much to try LaRoche, which is really mroe a problem with Torre.

The Dodgers optioned LaRoche to AAA, even though he could have taken more time on his rehab assignment. LaRoche is hitting .154/.354/.385 after 5 games in Vegas, with 4 walks, a single and a homer. All I need to see is a couple extra base hits to see that his power is still there, and then I figure you call the guy up. Torre hasn't seen enough of LaRoche, and he's had a couple of injuries. He's also not a proven vet like Nomar, so he doesn't get the pass there.

Torre makes Grady Little look like he can cleverly manage a pitching staff. The way he burns through relievers and yanks starters too early is a bit mind-numbing. Deciding to bullshit around with Martin at third, especially with a piece of shit like Gary Bennett as the backup catcher is terrible too. Granted, that one is more Colletti's fault for trading Navarro for Mark Hendrickson, but hey.

The best explanation I have is the Dodgers think that Dewitt's stock is really high right now and they're looking to trade him. That, and they want to make sure the thumb injury doesn't kill LaRoche. Still, though, a good manager and GM should put the best team out there, and that's not happening if LaRoche is healthy but in Vegas.

Week 1 review

So my fantasy teams are doing ok, my head to head team more than my roto league team. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 4-2. Let's see how.

Game1: Penny vs Zito, W 5-0.
Gamescores: Penny 67, Zito 35
Zito got destroyed

Game 2: Lowe vs Cain, W 3-2
Gamescores: Lowe 50, Cain 66
Furcal scores from 2nd on a grounder to Ray Durham to win the game.

Game 3: Kuo vs Valdez, L 1-2
Gamescores: Kuo 57, Valdez 60
Rain delays scratch Billingsley vs Lincecum, although both appear in relief.

Game 4: Kuroda vs Germano, W 7-1
Gamescores: Kuroda 71, Germano 67
Kuroda goes 7 on 77 pitches, Dodger offense comes alive

Game 5: Penny vs Peavy, L 1-4
Gamescores: Penny 38, Peavy 86
Doesn't that say it all? Peavy goes the distance allowing two hits.

Game 6: Lowe vs Young, W 3-2
Lowe 61, Young 64
Guess Hu beat Hoffman?

The Dodger bullpen was really the unsung hero. The offense didn't do a whole lot, and the starters were outdone for the most part.

No Surprise

Juan Pierre had his agent call Pierre and demand more playing time. From Gurnick

General manager Ned Colletti said he received a call from Pierre's agent asking for clarification of his role and Colletti said he delivered a message that the better Pierre performed in the opportunities he had, the more playing time he was likely to earn.

The better Pierre performed in the oppurtunities he had? An 8 year major league career will tell you the type of player Juan Pierre is. Signing him for 5 years was a horrendous disaster, and Colletti refuses to admit that he might have been a little bit shortsighted. And stupid. Ethier had a great year and then a weak September when injured. Dave Roberts was available - you could bring back a popular ex-Dodger who's a similar player, and you could bench him too. Kenny Lofton could have been re-signed - especially when you knew Jones was a free agent the next year. But Colletti chose Pierre for 5 years, and was completely surprised by a relatively informed fan base who could figure that batting average doesn't matter without walking or power, unless it's like .330 or someting.

But let's remember, Pierre did not lose the starting job until after Spring Training. Why? Because Joe Torre made the decision, because he's the $4million manager and Colletti wanted to pass the buck and wash his hands of the situation. And Torre, the $4million manager, doesn't have to make a decision in February. He's not supposed to look at video or statistics or scouting reports in the offseason, he's supposed to see them in person. So naturally he based it off of Spring Training. But I'll give Torre some credit - he tried Kemp and Ethier in center field - if Pierre's arm was keeping him in left, why not see if the other guys can play center?

But seriously, the current regime is not going to make judgements based on reasonable assessments.

Time for Fantasy!

That's right, with the season starting, it's time for fantasy. And since I barely have time to write anything (but really need a post here), here's a few points quickly.

Why to do it

First of all, it will allow you to see what's going on all over the league. Sure A-Rod, Pujols, Santana, and the other first round dudes will put up great numbers. But where are you going to find that flier to pick up mid-season that will take off? Who will be Francisco Liriano or Hanley Ramirez for you?

Secondly, it reveals how a good night or a bad night can be determined by one hit, or even one walk. That enables you to get more points for a run, RBI, stolen base, etc.

Thirdly, it will demonstrate which statistics translate year to year and which ones do not. WHIP and K/9 translate more than ERA, etc. Some stats are dependent on the team more than the player (RBI, R, W, S) - look for #3 or #4 hitters for RBI and runs, even on worse teams.

How to do it

Go to any major sports site (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo!) and look for fantasy. Don't play for money, unless it's either so low that it's just enough to make the league more competitive, or if you're an expert and like gambling. But if you're an expert, would you be reading this?

Look at the scoring rules and lineup rules. CBS does weekly lineups, and ESPN and Yahoo! can do daily lineups (and allow for MUCH MORE customization). Scoring rules will depend on whether you do head to head or a rotisserie league. In a head to head league, you'll get points for different events, and in roto leagues, it's about being ahead in each category.

Find a league with a draft time that looks good. Then do a bit of research, and have fun!

Tips
Buy low, sell high. Don't trade if desperate for a player - look for free agents. Also watch for free agents that could be hot prospects that might do it. Be aware of a player's career trends - if he hits for decent average but is slumping early on, get him. If a player is hitting better than he will the rest of the year, ship him out. I swapped Kevin Youkilis for Ryan Howard last year in May.

Get closers, and keep starting pitchers on your bench, avoiding injury risks as position players. You can use starters when other starters aren't playing, or in weekly leagues, use pitchers with 2 starts over those with just 1.

And have fun!

The only thing dumber than pre-season predictions

Is a Bill Plaschke column. Especially when he gives good players a hard time.

What seemed like clubhouse defiance is now calm confidence.

That deer-in-the-headlights look has become an unfettered focus.
That is the ADD style of Plaschke. defiance does not match with deer-in-headlights. That would me more like Jeff Kent, who is a very old man. Or Grady Little, who is gone now.

Besides, Chad Billingsley is the one from Defiance (OH).

Matt Kemp will pay his own way?

The Dodgers' season depends on it.

Their unwillingness to deal him prevented them from obtaining this winter's top traded pitchers -- Johan Santana, Erik Bedard or Dan Haren.

No, those packages all took like 5 players each. Santana also came with a $140 million extention. Seattle gave up essentially Kemp, Beimel, Greg Miller, and two top A+ ball pitchers, to give the Dodger equivalent. Besides, the Dodgers don't have that great a weakness in starting pitching. They need an offense. They scored 85 fewer runs in 2007 than 2006. 85! That's half a run a game. Adding a single pitcher won't bring the team ERA down by .5 unless he posts an ERA of like 1 for 200 innings.

The Dodgers believe that by keeping his cannon in the middle of their lineup, Kemp would blow enough smoke to shroud the hole at the top of their rotation.

What? Here's the top of the Dodgers' rotation last year:
Penny - 151 ERA+, 33 GS
Billingsley - 138 ERA+, 20 GS
Lowe - 118 ERA +, 32 GS

Here's where the decent starters were
Randy Wolf - 97 ERA+, 18GS

There were 59 games started by other starters. Two other starters at an ERA+ of 100 would have been an improvement, but no dice. No other starter pitched as well. Hiroki Kuroda could stay healthy and have a 4.5 ERA and that would help the rotation a lot. Loaiza and David Wells sucked.

Now Matt Kemp has to save the season.

No. Now Joe Torre has to play the right players (bench Nomar and Pierre for LaRoche and Ethier), Ned Colletti has to put the right players on the roster (Kershaw, McDondald, Wade, LaRoche), and Rafael Furcal has to hit for his career averages (ie SLG more than 400).

He can save it with his bat, capable of at least 20 home runs, at least 80 runs batted in, at least an on-base percentage in the mid-.300s.

He can save it with his arm, which is right-field strong, and his feet, which are 20 stolen-bases fast.

Who told Plaschke about OBP? And seriously, mid .300s? That's a huge variation, from like .330 to .370. Kemp can definitely help with his ability. This is true. It is also obvious. What else does Plaschke suggest? He's got a list, so I'll number them.

(1) Will he show up at the park early for extra work? (2) Will he stay late for interviews? (3) Will he win the praise of veterans who will judge him as much on his hustled groundouts as on his home runs?

Question 1 migh be relevant, especially if he works on something useful like recognizing pitches out of the zone. The 2nd one is entirely irrelevant, and Plaschke needs to realize he isn't helping the team by being a columnist, but that's not his job. The 3rd one doesn't matter, it's just a question of how much of an asshole Jeff Kent will be.

The veterans thought the kids didn't respect winning. They thought they didn't respect the game.

The veterans quietly complained about everything from late clubhouse arrivals to dumb baserunning errors to smiles after losses.

Jeff Kent doesn't smile after a win. What the hell. Taking losses in stride and not getting bogged down? Making the same mistakes veterans make? What jerks.

Quick! Make some predictions!

Well, this will be a challenge, because one has to guess which players get playing time, who gets injured, who plays freakishly well, who loses everything, etc. But might as well jump out before everyone else. Even though Kyle Lohse is still unemployed.

National League - AL review to come later.

EAST
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

The Mets have a bit of a weakness at 2nd base, but other than the September collapse of Jose Reyes, they should own the division. Pedro looked like himself in September, at least by the numbers, and adding Santana should make that the best rotation at least in the division, if not the league. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either El Duque or Mike Pelfrey will fill out the rotation, probably quite successfully.

Philadelphia still lacks a lot of pitching depth behind Hammels, and in the absence of Aaron Rowand's career year, their offense will have to put in a little more effort to keep being awesome.
Atlanta is missing Andruw Jones and Kotsay is an injury risk, as is Chipper Jones, which is a shame. A full year of Chipper would be huge for Atlanta. The Braves do have the potential to outdo the Phillies if their offense keeps up, particularly with Renteria now in Detroit. Healthy years from Gonzalez and Soriano will also vastly help Atlanta, although Joey Devine would have been huge for Atlanta. Smoltz and Glavine are both older than dirt, though, so you never know there, and I don't think Mike Hampton will ever be healthy again. He probably forgot what baseballs look like.

The Marlins had an ugly year last year, but they should be getting Olson back from injury. They are down Cabrera, but they got Maybin, who will fill the centerfield hole - yeah, the Marlins look like they miss Juan Pierre. Their power-hitting middle infield, though, is still quite young.

The Nats made some nice acquisitions with Dukes and Milledge, but that doesn't change that they might actually start Christian Guzman at short still. On top of that, their pitching staff has some upside but is far too injury prone to inspire a lot of confidence.

Central
Brewers
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Astros

At the very least, I'd say there's a split between the top 3 good teams and the bottom 3 bad teams.

The Brewers have had a lot of key components, they just seem to be able to overpay someone every year. Jeff Suppan last year, now Eric Gagne. Sheets in a contract year should be thrilling, and Capuano will be trying to rebound from a poor injury-riddled season where his opponents' average against jumped up from .260 to .280. Not to mention Braun, Fielder and Weeks are offensive forces that aren't making outs all over.

The Cubs won the division last year, and yes, Zambrano's ERA was half a point higher than his career mark. Who knows. Lou Pinella isn't terribly stupid, but I don't see two years in a row. Even if Ted Lilly is that good.

The Cardinals have room to improve, like having Carpenter pitch, but the problem is that won't be until July. Mulder might be alive, but we won't hear from him until May, and what will he pitch like? Mulder has not been effective since 2005 (sort of like Jeff Weaver). Glaus for Rolen is a lateral move, except Glaus might have more power left. Both will spend half the year on the DL. Izturis will make more outs, defensively and offensively, than Eckstein.

The Reds have Dusty Baker managing. Homer Bailey, the hope for their future, should pray that Baker gets arrested and tabbed as Barry Bonds' real supplier, preventing him from forcing Bailey to throw 140 pitches 3 games in a row. Baker will also despise Adam Dunn from clogging the bases with his three true outcome awesomeness.

The Pirates should get improvement from Jason Bay - not sure what happened there. Adam Laroche should probably knock a couple more out too. I still don't hold but so many high hopes for Pittsburgh, but we shall see.

The Astros are the stupidest organization in baseball. Tejada is an ok acquisition, except that he's getting old and isn't as good, and probably used steroids. Why they couldn't wait another day for the Mitchell Report is beyond me. But more importantly, their pitching is no longer a strength beyond Roy Oswalt.

WEST
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

Brandon Webb is good. Micah Owings is good. Randy Johnson might be healthy. But the Diamondbacks on top of that said, hell, let's get Dan Haren. The team is very dependent on its young core, with the reigning old dudes being crazy-haired Eric Byrnes, crazy bald man Kirk Gibson, and grumpy old coot Randy Johnson. That might put the D-Backs over the top.

Sure the Rockies got really hot at the end of last year, but they're good. Cook doesn't strike people out, but he's a groundball machine. Morales and Jiminez are up-and-coming. But let's not forget the superstars on the team: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton. Helton is like what Kevin Youkilis would be if he were 35 and not fat. They have the same beehive goatee thing too.

The Dodgers have upside that's dictated not just by their young players, but by Joe Torre. Hopefully, Torre won't do anything stupid like play Pierre over Ethier or play Nomar over Laroche. Additionally, they have all kinds of question marks like Kuroda, Jones, Furcal (who was still awesome defensively last year), Schmidt, Kuo, Brazoban, and Jeff Kent. They could potentially be a first place team, but nothing is certain.

The Padres plan to kill Jim Edmonds by making him run around their giant centerfield. Mark Prior has not pitched effectively since 2005, but he's worth a shot for $1,000,000. Randy Wolf has a nice curve and good K rate, and PETCO will keep the ball in the park, but he's still an injury risk too. I'm still optimistic that Hoffman will implode spectacularly around July or so.

The Giants have no position players. They overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who will still be better than anyone else on their team at hitting a baseball. Losing Bonds will make certain that the Giants don't get out of the cellar.

Spring Training

Sadly, we're looking at a situation where the Dodgers' manager has no clue what to think of his team. He wants to see them first. No opinions of anyone yet.

Jon Weisman has a Spring Training preview. Here's my quick and dirty version:

Starting Pitchers
1) Brad Penny
2) Derek Lowe
3) Chad Billingsley
4) Hiroki Kuroda
5) Jason Schmidt - health pending
6) Hong-Chih Kuo - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - above two health and quality pending
8) Eric Stults - desperation pending

Relief Pitchers
1) Takashi Saito
2) Jon Broxton
3) Scott Proctor
4) Joe Beimel
5) Rudy Seanez - almost a sure thing
6) Yhency Brazoban - health pending
7) Esteban Loaiza - quality pending
8) Mike Myers - health/desparation pending

Catcher
Russell Martin
Joe Benchwarmer

First Base
James Loney
Nomar Garciaparra

Second Base
Jeff Kent
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu

Shortstop
Rafael Furcal
Tony Abreu
Chin-Lung Hu

Third Base
Andy LaRoche
Nomar Garciaparra
Tony Abreu

Outfield
Andruw Jones
Matt Kemp
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Andre Ethier/Juan Pierre
Delwyn Young
Jason Repko
John-Ford Griffin


Nothing new here. Bench Nomar, bench Pierre, and much will be good. For a real good time, have LaRoche bat leadoff. A more realistic lineup:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
Ethier
LaRoche

by July, I'd like,

Furcal
Loney
LaRoche
Kemp
Jones
Kent
Ethier
Martin

Marting batting 8th to preserve him. Or something. Batting 2nd is a bitch for a catcher.

How Much Better is Nick Markakis than Andre Ethier?

Markakis the 7th overall pick in 2003 while Ethier was a 2nd round pick that year. Markakis is a more athletic outfielder with a bit more power, and he's also a year and a half younger.

Let's run some numbers:

Markakis
2003 minors (Age 19, A-): .283/.374/.395
2004 minors (Age 20, A): .299/.373/.470
2005 minors (Age 21, A+/AA): .310/.390/.504
2006 majors: .291/.351/.448 (106 OPS+), .268 EqA, 7.1 WARP3
2007 majors: .300/.362/.485 (121 OPS+), .284 EqA, 9.6 WARP3

Ethier
2003 minors (Age 21, A-/A): .296/.364/.389
2004 minors (Age 22, A+): .314/.379/.442
2005 minors (Age 23, AA): .317/.384/.492
2006 majors: .308./365/.477 (113 OPS+), .282 EqA, 3.5 WARP3
2007 majors: .284/.350/.452 (103 OPS+), .267 EqA, 5.0 WARP3

The folks at B-P give a lot of credence to Markakis' superior defense, though to be fair, Ethier played better defense in 2007 when he did not hit as well. Even then, though, that would lead one to compare Markakis' 2006 to Ethier's 2007, and Markakis comes out on top by a couple of wins. Markakis also could potentially play center, something Ethier doesn't have in his arsenal.

Markakis is better, and has the level of talent to be a franchise player, provided that Baltimore can afford him in 4 years. That doesn't mean Ethier's a bad player, but he's not they kind of player you would build your team around.

Can Pierre be benched? Or - how to make $36 million matter

Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have in common that the Dodgers owe each of them $36 million for the remainder of their contracts. And that they were signed to play centerfield.

Supposing LaRoche gets third base because Nomar manages to require Tommy John surgery in February after changing a diaper (or because he's better), the Dodgers lineup looks like this:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Kent
Kemp
LaRoche
Pierre

Which begs the question: why is Pierre better than Ethier? Pierre is likely to hit .295/.335/.375, while Ethier is likely to hit .285/.355/.455, and the Dodgers' lineup has been starved for power. Given Pierre won't even be playing center field, what compelling reason is there to play him regularly other than salary?

That said, starting Ethier instead makes more sense. Further, it is likely that Ethier will put up similar offensive numbers to Andruw Jones; while he may not hit for the same level of power, he'll hit for high enough average that the two will have similar OBP/SLG, if Ethier doesn't beat him. If Pierre starts instead, the defense might improve, but there will be no impact on the offense, which is a lot to swallow for $36.2 million.

Crazy Trade Market

Just to show that you never know what will happen, Billy Beane sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 top prospects. Looking at this, the White Sox have a reasonable chance to improve in 2008. Consider the following:

Whitesox.com has Swisher as the starting Center Fielder on the White Sox depth chart. Carlos Quentin has some upside in left field, and Swisher will hit something along the lines of .270/.375/.470 or something like that. The southsiders will not start Uribe or Podsednik next year, and their lineup will look like this (presumably):

Cabrera
Swisher
Konerko
Thome
Dye
Pierzynski
Quentin
Crede
Richar

This should be an improvement, although it remains to be seen what will happen in that division. The Tigers acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The Royals blew $36 million on Jose Guillen. The Twins lost Torii Hunter to free agency and may trade Johan Santana (but they'd screw with everyone if they kept him and left him and Liriano atop the rotation). In Cleveland, the question of what happens to Paul Byrd is accompanied by will Pronk recover from merely being good back to being supremely super awesome? A better year from him could help ward off Detroit, especially with the 1-2 of Sabathia and Carmona.

Nonetheless, if Swisher can go, it would seem that anyone can go.